- 17 hours ago
Presiden Donald Trump mengenakan tarif 25% ke atas rakan dagang Iran. Apakah implikasinya terhadap geopolitik, ekonomi global dan negara membangun? David Stepat berkongsi pandangan.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Assalamualaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh.
00:01Saya, Najib Aruf, dan kita akan mulakan dengan perbincangan topik-topik yang berkaitan dengan perkembangan dunia dan juga tempatan.
00:09So, we're going to start our Niagawani this morning with discussion on one of the most consequential developments in global trade policy.
00:17Yesterday, US President Donald Trump announced 25% tarifs on Iran's trade partners,
00:22a move that has sent shockwaves through international markets and also diplomatic circles.
00:27Of course, this decision comes against the backdrop of long-standing US sanctions on Iran
00:33and moral policy character US is trying to play in the context of anti-government protest that is currently happening across Iran.
00:41And to unpack these issues, we are joined by David Stippard, Country Director for Singapore at Desen Shira Associates,
00:48an expert in cross-border trade and investment strategies across Asia.
00:51David, good morning. Thank you so much for joining us.
00:53Let's start with a simple question.
00:55Does he has the guts to implement this?
00:58And what does this mean, you know, and Moof tells us about Washington's evolving strategy towards Iran and its trade partners?
01:07Is this a tactical escalation or a part of broader geopolitical play?
01:13Thanks for having me, Najib.
01:15Great question.
01:16So, definitely, the Trump administration has the guts to implement this.
01:22We've seen this.
01:24However, I think there are practical implications here, right?
01:28So, first of all, how is this defined?
01:31It was very vaguely defined.
01:33Is it countries that import from Iran?
01:36Is it countries that export to Iran?
01:39If it's both, we are talking about 120 plus countries that trade with Iran to varying degrees.
01:47The largest trading partners are China, India, Turkey, regional countries in the Middle East like the UAE, Iraq.
01:57So, how would this be implemented, right?
02:02Like, then is this 25% tariff on top of the tariffs announced earlier last year?
02:10So, for example, China is Iran's largest trading partner.
02:14currently, there's, like, around 30% tariffs on average on Chinese goods by the U.S.
02:22So, will this 25% be on top of existing tariffs?
02:27China already announced that they are not willing to accept this.
02:31So, they will probably prepare some kind of countermeasure if this were actually implemented.
02:37Then, of course, we can also look at Venezuela.
02:41Like, last year, the Trump administration also threatened 25% tariffs on countries that buy Venezuelan oil.
02:48But this was actually never implemented.
02:51But, despite this, the U.S. achieved its goals in Venezuela by changing the leadership there.
02:59Of course, long-term implications we have to see.
03:03I think tariffs are just one of the many tools at the disposal of the Trump administration.
03:09You will see them take, let's say, like, a more aggressive role in international politics than previous administrations.
03:18And leveraging tools like tariffs, but also military intervention, for example, or covert operations.
03:24So, I think we will see more of this.
03:27But specifically for tariffs, just because there's so many technical issues, it would take a lot of resources for the U.S.
03:34to determine what countries are trading with Iran.
03:37How could they implement these tariffs, right?
03:40Some large trading partners like China may push back hard.
03:44And they may limit access to rare earth elements, for example, like they have in the past.
03:51So, the Trump administration also there had to step down from extreme tariff measures.
03:56So, right now, it's an announcement.
03:59Whether it will be implemented, we have to see.
04:01And the U.S. also has other options at its disposal.
04:04David, could these tariffs, you know, accelerate Iran's pivot towards China and also Russia?
04:11And what does that mean for global power realignment that we are currently seeing?
04:18Well, right now, Iran is very much aligned with China and Russia.
04:22I understand that these protests are probably the most serious in the last couple of years.
04:32So, and the U.S. is pushing hard for regime change.
04:37They have shown the ability to interfere in other countries.
04:43So, I think here we would have to see how far the Trump administration wants to go.
04:48So, I think all options are on the table, militarily, economically.
04:54I don't think it will push Iran further into the corner of China and Russia than it already has.
05:04Actually, I think this may be a turning point for the regime.
05:09Not sure if they can stay in power with this much pressure applied.
05:14But, again, this would also depend on how much pressure the U.S. is applying, what options they take.
05:21So, just economically probably won't have as much of an impact as military options or perhaps even covert operations or political support by the U.S.
05:33So, we really have to see how this plays out.
05:35David, help us to understand from the geoeconomic standpoint, how do these tariffs compare to traditional sanctions in terms of achieving, you know, policy goals without destabilizing global markets?
05:49Well, it doesn't.
05:50Like, this is fairly destabilizing.
05:53Like, with a lot of announcement by the Trump administration, these things get announced first.
05:59It seems like there wasn't a lot of thinking on actually how will this be implemented.
06:05There's a strong announcement that says, like, any country that deals with them will face our wrath.
06:12That's basically what it says.
06:13This announcement by itself may already lead to some change.
06:18So, some nations may think twice before they are dealing with Iran, for example, if they are smaller.
06:25If they are larger and Iran is important to them, for example, like China, they may just push back, right?
06:32I think this depends really on the countries we are talking about.
06:36Global markets don't like uncertainty, and this is, again, one of those things where I think we will see a lot of uncertainty because just the practical implications here are that this is not easily implemented.
06:48And we would have to see how any tariffs, if they even are implemented, would be approached during the actual implementation.
07:00For example, China buys, I think, the bulk of Iranian oil.
07:03This is shipped to China via a fleet of shadow tankers, murky ownership.
07:10They're difficult to track.
07:12And all the clearing is done in Chinese yuan, not U.S. dollars.
07:17So, how would the U.S. police this?
07:20I've seen from Venezuela that they are capturing oil tankers.
07:25But here with China and Iran, I think this would be on a larger scale.
07:31So, I'm not sure how the U.S. would implement any kind of tariffs announcements or sanctions on countries dealing with Iran.
07:41So, I think for now, this remains a threat with limited impact.
07:46Let's just put a situation.
07:47Let's just assume that this tariff takes effect, for instance.
07:51What sectors do you think, and maybe supply chains as well, are most vulnerable to disruption from these tariffs?
07:58Particularly, we're talking about energy and maybe petrochemicals?
08:04As far as Iranian oil is concerned, yes.
08:07But this also goes beyond that, right?
08:09Iran imports a lot of agricultural products, right?
08:12Like from markets like India, for example.
08:16So, it depends really on if this would be implemented and for how long.
08:25At the moment, I really think it wouldn't be just because in practice this would be very complicated.
08:32And the U.S. has already shown that they wouldn't do this, for example, like with Venezuela,
08:38where this threat was also on the table in March last year, but they actually didn't follow through.
08:42I know China is the biggest trading partner for Iran, but for developing nations trading with Iran,
08:49what are the immediate economic risks, currency volatility, the volatility of the economy itself,
08:54the trade volatility as well, investment flight maybe.
08:58But what kind of risks do you foresee based on this development?
09:03So, I think, like I said, Iran trades with roughly 120 countries, right?
09:09Like some major economies would probably see a larger impact, like Turkey, for example.
09:16China, but China has the power to push back.
09:19So, not sure if this would actually even be implemented on China.
09:23And then we have smaller economies that may sell certain niche products,
09:29pharmaceuticals,
09:32machinery.
09:33So, here, again, also limited impact.
09:37If these countries were really worried about being tariffed by the U.S.,
09:41I think the U.S. could and could apply a lot of pressure.
09:45So, they then may just divest from dealing with Iran until it's clearer,
09:50or they may continue to deal with them until they see that further up the food chain,
09:55like with the larger economies, there's actually,
09:57that the U.S. is actually implementing this, right?
10:02Like, so, I think smaller economies will just adopt a wait-and-see approach right now.
10:07Yeah.
10:08David, and also the whole situation is,
10:10what we've seen now is developing countries, ASEAN, for instance,
10:14is vulnerable to a certain extent in terms of having to face secondary sanctions in that sense.
10:20But how should, you know, ASEAN countries balance in terms of energy security and trade diversification,
10:27you know, while at the same time avoiding exposure to these secondary sanctions?
10:34Excellent question.
10:35So, I think this goes also back to when U.S. tariffs globally were announced last year, right?
10:41Diversify, right?
10:42Diversify within the region.
10:44Make sure you do not get all your energy supply from a single country.
10:48make sure you don't sell all your goods to a single country.
10:52So, more inter-ASEAN trade, for example, but also trade with other economies,
10:57whether that is the EU, South America, Japan.
11:02You cannot put all your eggs in one basket.
11:05And I have to ask this because whether, I'm not sure whether this is happening or not,
11:11but could this push smaller economies, you know,
11:13to adopt alternative payment systems or digital currencies
11:17to bypass U.S. financial dominance in that sense?
11:20Because we've seen a few developments that requires us to go through the U.S. financial dominance
11:25in terms of the payment systems.
11:27But you see that this could trigger another payment systems or digital currencies in that sense?
11:33Well, there is a reason that the U.S. dollar is a global reserve currency.
11:39So, any kind of dealings with alternative payment methods,
11:44whether that is cryptocurrency or other financial instruments or other currencies,
11:50I think would be limited because there are structural issues with this.
11:54So, I wouldn't expect this to have a large impact.
12:00Let's not forget the United States is the largest economy in the world.
12:03A lot of countries still want to deal with them.
12:06And the U.S. dollar is basically the backbone of the world economy for now.
12:12I mean, we have seen some signs that this may change.
12:15The Trump administration has taken an aggressive legal stance
12:19against the head of the Federal Reserve.
12:22So, we have to see how that plays out
12:25because the entire system is underwritten on the basis that the Federal Reserve is independent.
12:33And this kind of independence is actually what helped the U.S.
12:37and especially the U.S. dollar become so important for the world economy.
12:43Now, if this were to change, and this is just speculation,
12:46sure, we may see other currencies rise, but also, again, to a limited extent.
12:52And my last question, of course, there's a lot of unilateral measures by the U.S. itself.
13:00And, of course, unilateral tariffs like this
13:02maybe risk undermining multilateral trade frameworks under WTO, for instance,
13:09and accelerating a fragmented global economic order that is currently happening.
13:13But how do you foresee this will be, at least for the next couple of years?
13:23So, there's a lot of uncertainty right now, I think, for all economies globally.
13:29I don't think there's any exceptions, right?
13:32Traditional U.S. allies are worried about some of the steps the U.S. is taking in international policy.
13:39Look at Greenland and Denmark, for example.
13:42If the U.S. were to take Greenland by force, militarily occupy it,
13:48that would actually spell out the end for NATO
13:51and the transatlantic security cooperation that the U.S. and Europe have enjoyed
13:57since the end of the Second World War.
14:00So, it seems like the Trump administration is very willing to just question that status
14:06and they don't really seem to care what the impact with their closest allies is.
14:11Likewise, the U.S. now doesn't seem to mind throwing its weight around in global affairs, right?
14:18Like, so you've seen Venezuela and Iran, how they deal with China,
14:23and then also by extension Southeast Asia where you had countries that actually have a trade surplus with the U.S.,
14:29but they still get tariffed, right?
14:30Like, it seems like the U.S. doesn't really care about what any kind of backlash is.
14:36From a policy perspective, and this is just my personal opinion,
14:40I think this is not sustainable because if you are not seen as a trusted partner,
14:45then countries will want to reduce dependencies on you because you're kind of a wild card, right?
14:52You don't know what could happen.
14:54And then looking at some of the examples now,
14:58countries would probably want to protect their interests and be less vulnerable to any kind of, like, policy or economic threats.
15:10So, we would see more diversification.
15:13and then also, of course, I think a reduction of, yeah, trade with the U.S., trade deals while countries try to counter this.
15:26But then again, also, the U.S. is a parliamentary democracy.
15:30So, the government will change again in three years.
15:34And then maybe the new administration is going to roll back some of these policies.
15:38So, we don't know at the moment.
15:39so that it's done.
15:40Yeah.
15:41yeah.
15:41Yeah.
15:41So, that's a good one.
15:44You up to the author.
15:45So, that was very important.
15:46If it got to the center for escaping the USAc party,
15:47I did say ETHU website.
15:48Yeah.
15:49Awesome.
15:49Yeah, it was amazing.
15:50That's new one.
15:51Yup.
15:52Yeah, so that we have each other and that I think who was a nonprofit that I think
15:55has
16:06그러면.
Be the first to comment