- 7 weeks ago
Market participants are closely watching whether defence stocks could remain active in the coming days and what investors should keep in mind before taking exposure to this sector.
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00:00shriya good morning and thanks a lot for that welcome viewers to the market opening business
00:21show let's take a look at what's hot in the corporate and the financial world first
00:25global markets in a flux as donald trump changes the rules of the game white house announces it
00:34will control venezuela's oil exports indefinitely hours after u.s forces sees two sanctioned oil
00:41tankers one flying a russian flag u.s markets also dragged down by major financials after
00:47trump says he will ban institutional investors from buying single family homes
00:52global geopolitics fails to pause the indian economic juggernaut government estimates better
01:02than expected gdp growth this fiscal year also revises the forecast to 7.4 percent higher than
01:08rbi 7.3 percent forecast nominal gdp growth is however seen at a five-year low of eight percent
01:14against 9.8 percent last year the second advanced estimates is to be announced next month and maybe
01:19still higher because of the new base year
01:22markets eagerly await the first fresh public issue of a government-owned company in 26 months
01:32of 1071 crore rupees ipo bharat cooking coal opens tomorrow and it's already commanding a gray market
01:39premium of over 50 percent all proceeds will go to the parent company coal india whose share
01:44is up 14 percent in a month income tax department joins the war against cryptocurrencies warns the
01:55parliamentary standing committee on finance about unregulated anonymous and borderless movements
02:01of funds says offshore exchanges due to dictionary challenges and private wallets will be making
02:07holdings opaque and detection of taxable income difficult lg electronics india in spotlight as a
02:17three-month shareholder lock-in expires today nearly 15.2 million shares hits the market the stock is down
02:2215 percent from its post listing highs but continues to trade above 1140 ipo price
02:28let's straight away look at the big breaking news coming in this morning in a major boost to make in
02:40india program the adani group has tied up with brazil's embrayer to build commercial aircraft in india
02:47according to the times of india adani will set up india's first final assembly line for commercial
02:53fixed wing aircraft to manufacture embrayer's regional jets used on short and medium haul routes
02:59with seating capacity between 70 and 146 passengers adani aerospace had signed an mou with
03:05embrayer in brazil last month for the project remember details on the location investment and
03:12timelines are yet to be disclosed and a formal announcement is also expected later this month
03:18at hyderabad air show as well both the companies have so far declined to comment on the same but right
03:23now if you look at all eyes will be on how adani group really fares in the stock prices of the
03:29flagship firm adani enterprises is already holding up above the flat line in trade as far as how the
03:35markets are settling in in the pre-open trade right now let me actually go across to both our experts
03:41now shell but nagar our consulting editor for markets on business today is with us and joining in
03:45our external expert gorang shah is also with us warm welcome to you gorang good to have you with us
03:49and of course a happy new year i'm meeting you for the first time in the new year as well
03:53hopefully this year turns out to be a fabulous one for you for your loved ones as well
03:58and may turn out to be the most profitable year yet for everybody at you know your client's end as
04:04well so thanks a lot do give us a sense of how are you looking at this big breaking news when it
04:09comes to adani group tying up with brazil's embrayer and what does it mean for the entire space then
04:14thank you so much sakshi for the season's greeting as well as wishes for the new year wishing you
04:23my good friend shell i'm meeting you and shell why for the first time in this 2026 and wishing all
04:30the viewers of india today and business today television a very healthy and a prosperous new
04:35year and hope you stay in great health throughout the year and many more years to come well at the
04:43beginning of the year sakshi we actually came out with an outlook for this calendar year 2026
04:48we are of the opinion that 2026 could be a better year compared to 2025 in terms of returns for the
04:57index 12 to 15 on the conservative side on sense 6 and nifty and if you are a little bit more aggressive
05:05and if you are able to understand well and if you do stop picking then you might end up getting better
05:10returns uh this news flows as far as adani and ember are just concerned i think it is only
05:15a step forward for the aspirations that we all have in terms of what india can be in terms of large
05:22manufacturing hub and becoming atma nirbar bharat which the honorable prime minister has always mentioned
05:28about and i think this is the need of the hour to be very honest i think indian aviation industry is
05:33growing at a very fast space we are opening up new airports plenty more lined up and of course in
05:40terms of connectivity uh and the dependency of india in terms of uh acquisition of aircrafts for
05:49whatever reason be it commercial or otherwise uh an emperor happens to be a a very strong name
05:55in terms of aircraft manufacturing capabilities and capacities uh it's it's a long drawn process
06:02actually it's just the beginning at least it's a step forward i think as we go into the future
06:06we'll have more clarity about this but a strong step and uh more positivities as far as atma nirbar bharat
06:14fantastic going across to shell now shell i think just about seven seconds to go before the markets
06:20open what is it going to be important for the market investors to really keep in mind today and
06:25what are you watching well it's actually the markets are about to open and they're right there in front
06:34of us a bit of a back step on uh the nifty in particular half a percent lower a 0.16 percent lower and
06:43that's because of what you mentioned at the beginning of the show uh lots of issues uh in the global
06:48geopolitical space and the markets are not uh very happy with it so index wise it's going to be flat
06:54to weak 26 000 is something that the bulls are not willing to give up and 26 200 is not something that
07:02they're able to break so a narrow trading range for the nifty at least for the next two days let us see
07:08what the weekend brings and then we'll take a call on the markets on monday this is the earning season
07:13and the pre-budget rally is right there in the market for us absolutely shell gauranga i think
07:19earning season is going to be getting into full flavor next week uh what are you expecting this
07:24time around in q3 some of the business updates have already started to trickle in for consumption
07:29oriented names even the banking names at large what is the broader sense this time
07:33so sakshi uh the view is that the shade and the color for the q3 earnings which will be a curtain
07:40raiser from next week monday onwards i believe uh 12th and uh our sense is that uh given the like
07:48you rightly mentioned the business update especially from the bfsi segment that is private sector banks
07:53public sector banks and nbfcs along with that we had business update from gems and jewelry we had
07:58business update from fmcg sector uh looking at all these positivities i think the shade and the color
08:04could be better than what we have seen in q2 and uh the sense is also sakshi that q4 and the next
08:10financial year could be even better the only joker in the pack is the tantrums that president trump is
08:16throwing around uh that's the only joker in the pack uh i hope uh that the geopolitical situation does
08:24not turn out to be uglier than what we have expected and remains to be seen what's the next move as far
08:30as uh his aspirations are concerned but i think uh relatively we are as of now insulated from those
08:37uh term tantrums as far as his aspirations are concerned but earnings would be a driving factor
08:43that's that's what i strongly believe absolutely shell any key stocks that are coming onto your radar
08:48just two minutes uh you know from the markets yet any big names that you may want to flash in front of
08:53our uh screens as far as uh viewers are concerned uh it's actually i would pay attention to the
09:02entire psu back uh that's simply because of uh uh the rally that we are seeing in uh the pre-budget
09:09space so psu banks psu metals uh in particular you mentioned the coal india instance uh of the ipo so
09:18keep an eye out on coal india that itself is a great stock to watch absolutely goreng ga we'll take
09:23your view there um are you also looking at uh you know bccl in an interesting fashion tomorrow this
09:29ipo opens up gray market premium soaring about 50 percent also indicating a lot more interest
09:34already before the ipo also opens up what is it that you would advise clients and um you know
09:39investors to really look at here so it's actually uh i think it will be later this evening that
09:45an ipo note will be out from our research department i'll give you a small disclosure i forgot to give
09:49that that all recommendations are going to be a part of our research team fundamental recommendation
09:53from a long-term point of view our company jeojit or myself we do not have any personal any kind of
09:58personal investments no financial interest no conflict of interest but we give advice to our
10:02clients on similar lines they might have their interest interest so i i was listening into the
10:06uh commentary of both bharat cooking coal as well as coal india management uh it was yesterday or day
10:11before and the commentary was very very strong in terms of business outlook and the more
10:16positivity is the kind of uh quality of coal that we are having with added number of groceries to
10:22wash that coal that comes out from below the earth uh bharat cooking coal i think uh the valuation
10:28is fair enough i won't be able to give a specifically subscribe or avoid because we are not yet come
10:34out with the ipo note but i think it should definitely create a lot of interest from investors
10:39point of view not listing gains point of view okay uh one other space that i wanted to just
10:44take your view gorang on uh is the gems and the jewelry space with titan coming out with the
10:50better than expected business updates we saw the entire gems and jewelry space also in full flavor
10:54yesterday some of them are even moving in today like look at thangamail it's up by five and a half
10:59percent senko again is on the move how are you looking at the gems and jewelry space right now
11:03so our disclosure again to answer the first question that coal india and bharat cooking oil we have a
11:09positive coverage on coal india on the fundamental side from a long-term point of view
11:12for gems and jewelry segment i think the fear sapshi was the price of gold and silver
11:17and the anticipation that a lot of people had was that people will restrain
11:21from stepping out of their house and making any kind of purchases so while the wisdom has prevailed
11:28upon investors not going in for jewelry if they are looking at precious investors and asset class
11:32but going in for you know small coins or something like that from an investment point of view
11:38for jewelry fashion or for personal use i was listening with the commentary a lower carat rate
11:47is also something that people have now started to get attracted because of the price of 22 and 24
11:52carat gold they have come out with lot of offers for a cross category young middle-aged and senior
12:00citizens titan company is something that we've been positive in for a pretty long period of time
12:05they did an acquisition of lab-grown diamond company before that they did an acquisition
12:10of dinamas in dubai before that they did an acquisition of carrot lane which is a high-end
12:14latinium jewelry making company and of course titan happens to be having a balance sheet which is
12:20diversified across it is not really dependent on gems and jewelry it's got gems and jewelry wrist
12:25watches perfumes personal care eyewear accessories whole host of things and i think it is virtually at its
12:32new lifetime high titan if i'm not mistaken okay got that um you know shell let me come to you a lot
12:39of uh those um you know erstwhile favorites are coming back the defense names blhal they are also
12:44flashing up in screens right now so the defense space is coming back do you think in the run-up to
12:48the budget this space will be in thick action uh
12:55sakshir absolutely right but again i point out the geopolitical issues that are
13:01coming up so starkly uh on the radar gorang my dear friend mentioned them
13:07uh about the tantrums that are being thrown uh you've seen what's happened in venezuela
13:12uh is greenland next uh we don't know most probably yes look at the run-up in europe in terms of
13:21how the militaries are facing each other so defense is a no-brainer b-e-l-h-a-l in top shape
13:28and of course it's the pre-budget tadka in defense as well sakshi gorang i think you have been a
13:36biggest voice on business today television and on india today last two years how you focused on the
13:41defense space constantly uh you know told um through various cycles ups and downs you've told
13:47our viewers that you know defense is a large longer theme that everybody has to focus on over the next
13:53five ten years and even more if you are a long-term investor uh what is it that is bringing your
13:58attention back to the defense space at this point in time how are you looking at the current geopolitics
14:03and the uh kind of focus again this space is garnering so sakshi uh the confidence has only got
14:11reinforced to be very honest with you uh extremely extremely positive uh on the entire defense
14:17pack and i also mentioned discussing with you which held by on your channel and advising investors that
14:24if you eventually uh decide and understand to invest in defense sector have three to five year plus kind
14:30of time horizon because these are all high precision engineering products with super high technology
14:38uh it's not like a defense company will get an order today and tomorrow morning they'll deliver it
14:44no it's not like that it is a complex engineering product and it takes time you get a make a prototype
14:49then you get it passed through various tests and eventually you get an approval for mass scale production
14:55uh geopolitical situation uh geopolitical situation whatever has evolved and what is likely to evolve
15:00with the kind of statements that have been made by president trump uh you know that will remain a tailwind
15:07but i am more optimistic about the government policy and the capability and the capacity of not only
15:12uh government defense psu companies but also private companies which are participating and contributing to the
15:20for the defense sector uh still remain positive on names like bel musgo dog pochin shipyard uh mtar
15:27technologies uh i mentioned this name a couple of times uh in the past uh sakshi and along with that
15:33private sector players like barot for genality we remain positive on these numbers okay fantastic
15:38one more good news that came in yesterday and after the market hours viewers is how india has projected
15:44to clock in this robust 7.4 percent economic growth in fy26 underscoring the economy's
15:50resilience and amid global headwinds as well government measures from tax relief to gst tweaks
15:55they're expected to support the demand while manufacturing and services also remain key
15:59growth drivers and on that note let's actually listen into um you know the economist shoggata
16:04bhattacharya the senior fellow at cpr and member of the monetary policy committee and siddhar sanyal the
16:10chief economist at bandhan bank on what kind of nominal growth number we can now expect
16:14in the upcoming budget in the next fiscal my sense is that uh they will be taking forecasts from a lot
16:22on on inflation and then the deflator uh gdb deflator uh from a lot of sources i'm sure from the reserve
16:30bank from other sources government think tanks uh the chief economic advisors office uh etc so all of
16:36that my own sense is that given the forecast for the q1 q2 of next year and hopefully we'll be at
16:45around a four percent three and a half to four percent level for the cpi uh and more or less two
16:51and a half to three percent for the wpi uh in next year and given the preponderance of the wpi in the
16:57deflator my own guess is that they will be sticking to somewhere close to about 10 percent we have a very
17:05similar expectation that that these days uh there i would say that next year you can expect
17:11partial normalization of the of the of that particular gap so somewhere in the range of two
17:17to three percentage point kind of additional uh i mean gap between uh nominal and real gdp so
17:23somewhere just around the double digit plus or minus is possibly a very very realistic estimate for the
17:29for the upcoming budget but i'm coming back to you i think um you know we would want to
17:35understand from you how would you look at this gdp estimate and what kind of uh you know tone would
17:40it set for the upcoming budget that's where all the eyes will be first of february how are you
17:45looking at uh what august for the investors market participants at large now it's actually my i have
17:51this is my personal dick to be on you in austin six uh 7.4 is a decent decent not only decent i think
17:57it's an exceptionally outstanding growth rate if you happen to deliver that in fy26 my take personally
18:037.4 or 7 or 6.5 even at 6 or 6.5 sakshi there is not a single economy according to me in what i
18:12understand in the world that can come and stand shoulder to shoulder with us so leave aside this
18:17kind of i mean it will be a super super phenomenal growth rate and of course we got to do much better
18:21than what uh is uh expected out of us from 7.4 and fy26 uh and my sense is that yes this and imagine
18:29sakshi this this this rate is despite the trump uh tariff tantrums so if in the next couple of months
18:38if we are able to walk our way through both india and u.s uh with this whatever you know uh uh
18:45decisive resolution for the state tariff i think the run rate could be even better having said that for
18:50the budget looks actually budget comes every year uh and every year before the budget there are a lot
18:55of expectation that are voiced by market participants but let's understand one thing
19:00government finance ministry and the honorable finance minister srimati nirmala sitaramanji has to walk the
19:07talk they have to look at long-term growth not short-term populist measures to make people happy and
19:14whatever they've delivered up till now i'm extremely pleased and i'm very very sure that they will keep the
19:20financial discipline in mind and they will use their wisdom and find sense of judgment when it comes to
19:26delivery of budget and it will be growth oriented uh it will be a budget which will uh have a lot of
19:33answers to the unemployment right now when turning into employment opportunities easing out taxation and
19:40other complicated roles and one thing that i want clarity by the honorable finance minister in this budget is
19:45is what is india's government stands on bitcoin uh or crypto i think they should clear that air very
19:51important very important thanks a lot then gaurang for sharing with us all these wonderful insights
19:56it's always a pleasure to have you with us on business today and on india today and hopefully we
20:00will catch up very soon yet again on the channel very soon thank you so much for being with us and with
20:04that viewers it's time for a short break now or don't forget to tune in at 3 p.m for all the market
20:09closing action i'll be back for that as well stay tuned
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