- 5 days ago
Category
📺
TVTranscript
00:00Music
00:00Famously, the British weather is a national obsession.
00:30Music
00:31Could you give me a wind speed and direction, please?
00:33Five gusts and seven from the west.
00:36For some, it provides vital information for the day ahead.
00:41Forties, property, four.
00:44For millions of others, the forecast is a little piece of prediction that can make us smile.
00:50Oh dear, these b****s. Let's do it again.
00:51Or frown.
00:52She heard that there was a hurricane on the way. Well, if you're watching, don't worry, there isn't.
00:58This is Britain.
01:00This is what we normally call bad weather.
01:03Forecasting the weather is complicated.
01:06It may never be possible to make perfect predictions.
01:10It doesn't comb its hair and polish its shoes. It doesn't do what it's supposed to.
01:14British weather is very complicated.
01:18The weather never stands still here.
01:20No, I don't suppose it does.
01:21This is the story of the weather itself and about some of the people who forecast it and those who depend on it.
01:29The weather that you expect it over the British Isles and no tomorrow.
01:33Now here's a gale warning. Attention all shipping.
01:44The Met Office issued the following gale warning to shipping at 0450 GMT's day.
01:49There have been weather forecasts since the earliest days of broadcasting.
01:53The shipping forecast began on radio in 1924.
01:57The gale is likely to be severe on the southwest coast and in the English Channel.
02:02Followed in 1936 by the first television forecasts, a disembodied hand drawing isobars on a map.
02:11But the next major advance in presenting the weather was not brought about by new broadcasting technology.
02:20It was the weather itself that made it happen.
02:27Several key weather events at the beginning of the 1950s soaked into the national psyche.
02:33The Linmouth flood disaster of 1952 took 34 lives and devastated a Devon community.
02:41A great storm swept away all our boats.
02:44As we watched further, we saw a row of cottages near the river and the flashes of lightning, because it was dark by this time.
02:51In the flashes of lightning, we saw these houses, in fact, fold up like a pack of cars.
02:56We swept out with the river amid the agonising screams of some of the local inhabitants.
03:02We don't know very well.
03:04It began to be asked if the damage could have been prevented.
03:11The following year, three million people attending the Queen's coronation got a right royal soaking,
03:17something they could have been better prepared for with a little forewarning.
03:21Then it started to rain, but the thousands didn't give in.
03:26Somehow the wet and the cold made them even more determined to stay on,
03:29to hold on to the places they had so diligently sought out.
03:33And the lines of newcomers never stopped.
03:35They all made the best of it.
03:37Up went the umbrellas, on went the raincoats,
03:40and under the shelter of blankets and newspapers, they stuck it out.
03:43And most devastating of all, that same year, a freak storm tide hit the east coast of England,
03:52resulting in some of the worst flooding the country has ever seen.
03:57On January 31st this year, the east coast of England,
04:02the seawall was breached in over a thousand places from the east riding right down to Kent.
04:08More than 20,000 houses were flooded.
04:10The total cost of the damage, about 50 million pounds.
04:17More than 300 people died.
04:19There was thousands of homes destroyed because of the weather,
04:22and no one really saw it coming.
04:24They didn't see it coming in time,
04:25because as places were getting flooded on the east coast,
04:29the phone lines were down,
04:30so no one could even ring ahead to people further down the coast and say,
04:34there's a big storm coming, you want to get out?
04:40But very soon the whole nation was asking one question.
04:45In the face of growing criticism,
04:50the BBC responded with the help of the Met Office.
04:55Televisions were now part of life.
04:5820 million viewers had tuned in to watch the coronation.
05:01It was the ideal medium for weather forecasts,
05:04but they needed to be more engaging.
05:06What the weather needed was a face.
05:10Someone to tell the audience, night after night,
05:12what the weather was going to do the next day.
05:15In 1954, a year before the first news presenters appeared on screen,
05:21the BBC appointed 32-year-old George Cowling from the Met Office
05:25as their first weather forecaster.
05:27At 7.55pm on Monday, January the 11th, 1954,
05:39Cowling prepared for his debut live broadcast.
05:43As a Met Office man,
05:44he had to travel across London to the Lime Grove Studios
05:47with a large bundle of rolled-up weather charts that he'd drawn himself.
05:52With a long five minutes to fill,
05:55Cowling decided to ad-lib a little.
05:57Something which didn't go down too well with the Met Office.
06:03I think George Cowling got into a little bit of hot water.
06:06Well, he ended it by saying that tomorrow would be a good day
06:08to hang out the washing.
06:09Now, nothing like this had ever been said on British TV before.
06:14It went down a storm with the national press,
06:17but that didn't impress his employer.
06:20He was rebuked by the Met Office for stepping outside his brief.
06:25He was not doing what he was tasked to do,
06:27which was simply to give a synoptic picture
06:30of the weather over the next few hours.
06:39Cowling was not the first meteorologist
06:41to feel the wrath of the Met Office.
06:43Founded in 1854 by the Board of Trade,
06:47it was an organisation that prided itself on its scientific credentials.
06:52Its first director was Robert Fitzroy, who was already famous.
06:57He'd come back from the voyage of the Beagle.
06:59He was Darwin's ship's commander on the Beagle.
07:02But he'd always been interested in weather.
07:05He felt that if you had a network of observers
07:09stationed around the coasts,
07:11that you could track what we would now call weather systems
07:14coming on the way.
07:15And he was right.
07:17Fitzroy began to imagine that he could offer public weather forecasts.
07:22And in 1861, he issued the first newspaper weather forecast,
07:28which, as it happens, was correct.
07:31This was 1st of August, 1861.
07:34And he said, it's very short, bulletin, very vague,
07:37but he said there'd be a moderate westerly wind
07:40and it would be fine.
07:41And he was absolutely right.
07:48Now, in some ways, in retrospect, he should have stopped there.
07:52But Fitzroy didn't stop there.
07:55He continued issuing unauthorised newspaper forecasts,
07:58which were wrong more often than they were right.
08:01They were hopelessly inaccurate.
08:05He didn't have enough observers.
08:07He didn't have enough data.
08:09And he sort of rushed it.
08:16Fitzroy tried to limit the damage of getting weather predictions wrong
08:20by inventing the term weather forecast.
08:23He hoped this emphasised that he was dealing in probabilities and not hard facts.
08:29But for the Victorians, inaccurate weather forecasts were too much like the black art of prophecy.
08:34The newspaper weather forecasts were discontinued and Fitzroy's reputation was in tatters.
08:41Fitzroy's reputation was in tatters.
08:46The pressures of work combined with this very public rebuke
08:49and an underlying depressive illness led to his suicide in 1865.
08:55And the investigation into that suicide was, it was a huge story.
09:00It was almost the Victorian equivalent of the death of David Kelly.
09:08Fitzroy's death cast a shadow over weather forecasting.
09:11There were no more newspaper forecasts for another decade.
09:18And when they did begin again in 1875,
09:22the science of meteorology had begun a period of change
09:25that would revolutionise forecasting.
09:27The invention of ISOBARs, which are lines of equal pressure drawn on weather maps,
09:35changed how weather was visualised.
09:37And in the 20th century,
09:39the introduction of wireless telegraphy made it easier to collect weather readings.
09:44And this, for the first time,
09:46made it possible for data collected in different places
09:51to be delivered to a central organising point immediately.
09:57And this was the key
09:58to sort of scientific weather forecasting.
10:04The science of meteorology continued to improve.
10:07And by the 1950s,
10:09more accurate weather readings
10:11meant more confident weather forecasts.
10:14Well, the basis of our method
10:15is to look at the month of November that we've just had
10:18and then examine our records for the past 90 years
10:21to see if we can find a similar occasion.
10:23When we've located one,
10:24we look at the December which followed,
10:26and this gives us one clue for the coming month.
10:30The Met Office was at the cutting edge of forecasting.
10:34An associated trough of low pressure
10:36will later move south-east across Scotland
10:38into Northern Ireland and England.
10:41And it was the obvious body
10:43to supply the BBC with weather forecasts
10:45and the meteorologist and the meteorologist to present them,
10:48each one facing the daily challenge
10:50of correctly predicting what the weather will do
10:53and broadcasting that to the public.
10:55The cloud will soon start to thicken
10:59and then the rain, which is already over Northern Ireland,
11:01will move eastwards into western Scotland
11:04and north-west England
11:05and then into remaining western.
11:09And for some, knowing with any certainty
11:12what the weather is about to do
11:13would make life much easier.
11:15Tomorrow I'm getting married
11:19and I'm really, really hoping for good weather
11:25but I can't really guarantee anything.
11:28I have been planning this wedding for a year
11:34so it's a long time in the making.
11:38We've been checking the weather all week.
11:40Everything stops for the weather forecast, really.
11:42Everyone has to be quiet, you know,
11:44no-one answers the phone.
11:45You just kind of sit there and take it all in.
11:48It looks like it's kind of a mixture of rain and sun
11:59which kind of isn't that bad
12:01but it depends when it rains, I guess.
12:05My mum has been quite neurotic about the weather for the weekend.
12:08She has been sort of checking it every opportunity.
12:12Yeah, she's been a little bit over the top about it.
12:18At the moment I can see the sun breaking through here
12:22which is lovely, casting some lovely shadows.
12:25A gentle breeze, the weeping willow is just moving beautifully.
12:31And it does make a difference
12:32but the wedding will go ahead.
12:34Come rain, come shine.
12:40Last night the weather took a turn for the worst.
12:43There was a massive clap of thunder, a flash of lightning
12:46and I was really, really scared
12:48because I just was like, oh, it's my wedding tomorrow
12:51and I could just hear the rain pouring down.
12:54At the moment it doesn't look too bad
12:58but it's that kind of weather that's sort of threatening to rain a bit
13:01so it could go either way.
13:05Is it too early?
13:08I think you've got fire jam.
13:12Hooray.
13:13I was prepared for rain
13:23so it was the nicest surprise ever
13:25to have the sun on the big day.
13:31To be able to look out
13:36of the windows where we were being married
13:38and just see the lakes
13:39and the grass and the gardens
13:41in such beautiful sunlight
13:43so it was amazing.
13:57This is BBC television.
13:58The wind was so cold
14:09that the sea froze on the Essex coast.
14:13The weather forecasters
14:14did not have much good news to impart
14:16at the beginning of the 1960s.
14:18By the time this blizzard
14:19had finally blown itself out
14:21200 main roads were impassable
14:23and 95,000 miles of road
14:25were snowbucked.
14:26The big freeze of 1962-63
14:29lasted three months
14:31and was the coldest winter since 1740.
14:35After five days battling
14:37Milk Roundsman had to take the day off
14:39from exhaustion
14:39and 15,000 London housewives
14:42went without milk.
14:49A new face was introduced
14:50to the weather line-up
14:52at the end of this cold snap.
14:53Hello there.
14:55And if you got wet today
14:57well you were decidedly unlucky.
14:59Bert Ford began his BBC career
15:01in 1963
15:02delivering simple
15:04instructive forecasts.
15:06But the cold front
15:07fairly lethargic
15:08quite slow moving eastwards
15:10and it's going to take...
15:11As a Met Office employee
15:12of 16 years standing
15:13Bert Ford was more civil servant
15:16than television presenter.
15:17Very much with us
15:18just moving across
15:19southeastern district.
15:20When the Met Office
15:21was founded in the 1850s
15:22it was very much part
15:24of the military wing
15:25of government.
15:26Met Office employees
15:27are effectively
15:28MOD employees
15:30and they hold
15:31ranks and pension arrangements
15:33equivalent to
15:34ranks and pension arrangements
15:35in the armed forces.
15:36On this front
15:37otherwise dry
15:38and fairly mild
15:39and now over to
15:40the National Summary Journal.
15:41By now the weather maps
15:43were professionally produced
15:44and the forecaster
15:45did not need his crayon.
15:47The weather was an established
15:49part of the television schedule
15:50and complaints about the weather
15:52are part of the forecaster's life.
15:57Hello weather centre.
15:59Robert, I think it's
16:01the general opinion
16:02of most citizens
16:03that weather forecasting
16:04is not an exact science.
16:07Do people ring up
16:08and complain
16:08and threaten to sue
16:09and all the rest of it?
16:11Well yes, certainly.
16:12We would expect
16:13to have the complaint
16:15put back to us
16:15and in fact
16:17if only to explain
16:18the reason for the error.
16:28This was a decade
16:29of mind-blowing changes
16:31in the science of the skies.
16:34Computers arrived
16:35at the Met Office
16:35and now mathematical equations
16:38were used
16:38to make forecasts.
16:39It was computer-generated equations
16:43that enabled meteorologist
16:45Edward Lawrence
16:46to develop one of the big ideas
16:48of the 20th century.
16:50Chaos theory
16:51which says that weather
16:52is totally unpredictable.
16:57The chaos theory
16:59as applied to weather
17:00you know
17:01a man stands on a stage
17:02drops a golf ball
17:04it lands in the same place
17:06drops a piece of paper
17:07it never lands
17:08in the same place
17:09it flutters around
17:10and the science
17:11of meteorology
17:12is the piece of paper.
17:15Suddenly forecasters
17:16had to accept the idea
17:18that any imperfections
17:19in their weather data
17:20however small
17:22would eventually lead
17:23to huge errors
17:24down the line.
17:26Ultimately
17:26what it meant
17:27is that no weather forecast
17:28can ever be perfect.
17:29Any error that we have
17:30in initial conditions
17:31will always limit
17:33the accuracy
17:33of our forecast
17:34in the future.
17:35and that's popularly
17:38known as this idea
17:39of a butterfly
17:40frapping its wings
17:41in Brazil
17:41causing a tornado
17:42in Texas.
17:435, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0.
17:50It wasn't the only
17:51new way of looking
17:52at the weather.
17:53The first weather
17:54satellites were launched
17:55sending back images
17:57of the Earth's atmosphere
17:58with the weather
17:59visible in a new
18:00and exciting way.
18:02That was really important
18:03to meteorologists
18:03to get this very large
18:05global overview
18:07of what was going on
18:08that they'd only
18:08been able to see
18:09by plotting things
18:10like maps with isobars
18:12or measurements
18:12from weather balloons
18:13to that point.
18:15These images
18:15were a revelation.
18:17Suddenly
18:17the entire world's weather
18:19was visible
18:20to the forecaster.
18:22Since we've had
18:23satellites
18:23no one has missed
18:25any tropical cyclones
18:26any hurricanes
18:27over that period.
18:28so before
18:30if a tropical cyclone
18:30didn't hit land
18:31we weren't aware
18:32of it.
18:33If it didn't affect
18:33any shipping
18:34we didn't know
18:34it existed.
18:35It's enabled us
18:36to do much more
18:36detailed study
18:37and I suppose
18:38in a way
18:39the general public
18:39has perhaps been
18:40more aware
18:41of that global
18:43perspective as well.
18:44The global perspective
18:52is one thing
18:53but weather
18:54is a local business
18:55and in Britain
18:56rain is never
18:57far away.
18:59For decades
19:00the umbrella
19:00has been an essential
19:01piece of kit
19:02so perhaps
19:04it's surprising
19:04how little we value
19:06this humble piece
19:07of weatherproofing.
19:08There will be some showers
19:10here and there
19:11developing.
19:11So far
19:12they've been occurring
19:13in western Scotland
19:14and parts of Ireland
19:15too
19:16but they could occur
19:17in other districts.
19:20The London Transport's
19:22lost property office
19:23umbrellas have been
19:24filling the shelves
19:25for decades.
19:29If you've lost
19:30an individual item
19:31you'd think
19:31there might be
19:32a few dozen
19:33but we get
19:34on average
19:34between 1100
19:36to 1300 items
19:37of property
19:37every day
19:39and that's
19:40you know
19:40100 mobile phones
19:42every day
19:43300 books
19:45bags
19:45travel tickets
19:46every day.
19:48Last year
19:49we had
19:49just over 12,000
19:50umbrellas
19:51came through to us.
19:55Everyone that arrives
19:57here is labelled
19:58and stored in the vaults
19:59for three months
20:00waiting to be claimed.
20:01when you have
20:03that spell
20:04of bad weather
20:04it's really easy
20:05to tell
20:06within the space
20:06of a week
20:07your umbrella
20:07stocks can
20:08go up by 1000
20:09quite easily
20:09and you can
20:10almost relate
20:11that back
20:11to the week
20:12or two weeks
20:13where the weather
20:14was inclement.
20:14of the 12,000
20:17umbrellas
20:18that arrive
20:18here annually
20:19only about
20:20300 are reunited
20:22with their
20:22original owners
20:23the rest are sold
20:24or donated
20:25to charity.
20:29You can pick
20:30sort of what season
20:31it is
20:31based on the type
20:32of property
20:32we have coming
20:33through.
20:34This summer
20:34was a perfect
20:35example
20:36we had
20:36one of the largest
20:37heat waves
20:38that London
20:38has had
20:38in a long time.
20:43So we're preparing
20:44right now
20:45the beginning
20:46of autumn
20:46for the onslaught
20:47of the gloves.
21:01By the 1970s
21:03the weather forecast
21:04was in glorious
21:05technicolor.
21:06Good afternoon.
21:07Well for most parts
21:08of the country
21:08it's another
21:09rather cold day
21:10with showers.
21:11And Britain's
21:11first weather woman
21:12Barbara Edwards
21:13had arrived
21:14in front
21:14of the cameras.
21:16With the radio
21:16one hasn't had
21:17to worry about
21:17what one's wearing
21:18nobody sees you
21:19but this is quite
21:20a change.
21:21But you are giving
21:21your wardrobe
21:22some careful thought.
21:23Oh I certainly am
21:24yes.
21:25But her arrival
21:26was eclipsed
21:26by some other
21:27new kids
21:28on the block.
21:29The 70s
21:30saw an influx
21:30of new male
21:31weather forecasting
21:32talent.
21:34Amongst them
21:34were Bill Giles
21:35Ian McCaskill
21:37Oh hello
21:39there you are.
21:40And Michael Fish
21:41There we are
21:42I think that'll
21:43hold now
21:43thank you very much
21:44love.
21:44They soon became
21:45household names.
21:48For though each
21:49of them had served
21:50for many years
21:51in the back rooms
21:51of the Met Office
21:52they all took
21:53to screen life
21:54with relish.
21:56Well I've said
21:57the weather
21:57is very changeable
21:58and one look
21:59at my weather chart
22:00will show you why.
22:01Good evening
22:01well a much quieter
22:02look to the weather
22:03now especially
22:03after the gales
22:04of last night
22:05and indeed
22:05I think most places
22:06will probably have
22:07a fine and dry night
22:08rather a chilly one
22:09but there will be
22:10one or two showers
22:10coming through
22:11from time to time
22:12chiefly in
22:13north western parts.
22:14Between them
22:15they had more front
22:16than the weather map
22:17and it was the weather
22:19map that was next
22:20in line for a makeover.
22:22And as the day goes on
22:23I think you're going
22:23to find these showers
22:24will tend to become
22:25heavier.
22:25Zippy new
22:26magnetic symbols
22:27came some new
22:28technical challenges.
22:29Fairly thundery
22:30with some
22:31oh dear
22:31let's do it again.
22:33What I think
22:34is likely to happen
22:34is that these frontal
22:35These front men
22:36of weather science
22:37appeared night after night
22:39on primetime television.
22:41Unsurprisingly
22:42their jumpers
22:43ties
22:43and facial hair
22:45became the stuff
22:46of everyday gossip.
22:47People would tune
22:49into the BBC
22:49weather forecast
22:50to see what jumper
22:51Michael Fish
22:52was wearing.
22:53It seemed frivolous
22:54you know
22:55and it seemed
22:57it seemed a kind
22:58of jokey way
22:59of absolving yourself
23:01the fact that
23:02your forecast
23:03wasn't always right
23:03though it doesn't
23:04matter because
23:05I'm a joker
23:05wearing a nice jumper.
23:08But it was a weather
23:09event that really
23:10made them news.
23:11The devastating drought
23:12of 1976
23:14seared the weather
23:15into the nation's
23:16consciousness.
23:17This country is now
23:18in one of the worst
23:20periods of drought
23:20since records began
23:22200 years ago.
23:24Lasting from May
23:25until August
23:26the drought put the
23:28country into a state
23:29of emergency.
23:29people needed
23:31the forecast
23:31in a way
23:32they never had
23:33before.
23:39But the
23:40anticyclone there
23:40looks fairly well
23:41anchored now
23:42and that's going
23:43to continue
23:44to keep the
23:44dry warm weather
23:46running in southern
23:47parts of the country.
23:47we all know that
24:00our taste in food
24:01depends upon the
24:02weather.
24:06You're welcome.
24:07For some
24:08a long hot summer
24:09is good for business.
24:11Luca's ice cream
24:16parlour in Musselburgh
24:17on the east coast
24:18of Scotland
24:19has been counting
24:20on good weather
24:21since 1908.
24:24I watch the weather
24:25forecast every single
24:26morning before I come
24:27to my work.
24:28I'm up at 6 in the
24:29morning and that's
24:30the first thing I do
24:31TV on weather
24:32forecast so that I
24:33have a rough idea
24:34what my day's going
24:35to be like and what
24:36uniforms and things
24:37we're going to need.
24:41And it gives us a rough
24:42idea of how busy
24:43we expect we're
24:44going to be.
24:45We can be in here
24:45for nine hours
24:46and we never see
24:47the end of the queue
24:48until we're walking
24:49past it going home
24:49but the queues
24:50are frightening.
24:52Really frightening.
25:00Luca's manufacture
25:01their own ice cream.
25:03Each 100-gallon batch
25:04contains milk,
25:06sugar,
25:07double cream
25:07and 25 kilograms
25:09of butter.
25:11As far as flavours
25:13go,
25:14the latest trend
25:15is Nutella
25:15ice cream.
25:17We used to sell
25:18a lot of coffee
25:19but for some reason
25:19nobody wants coffee
25:20ice cream now
25:21but there's very
25:22little.
25:23Nutella,
25:24mint,
25:24chocolate chip
25:24and we do
25:25another one
25:25called
25:25Toffee Fudgie
25:26Wudgie
25:27which is probably
25:28one of our best
25:29sellers.
25:29Not to forget
25:30the sorbets.
25:32I brew sorbet.
25:33It's also
25:34a Scottish thing.
25:36So at 9 o'clock
25:40this morning
25:40I think the cloud
25:41will be in this
25:42position
25:43with just some
25:43little bits of
25:44fine rain,
25:45bit of sea fog,
25:47bit of cloud.
25:4812 o'clock
25:49looking like that.
25:503 o'clock in the
25:51afternoon,
25:52sweltering hot
25:53with some patchy cloud.
25:536 o'clock
25:54an isolated
25:55thunderstorm
25:55as there was
25:56yesterday.
26:01Into the 1980s
26:03television forecasts
26:04embraced the
26:05computer age.
26:07Now it's time
26:08to get the mouse
26:08out of its cage
26:09and this is the
26:10mouse.
26:11It's a piece
26:11of equipment
26:12which allows me
26:12to move a pointer
26:13around the screen
26:14and select any
26:16piece of information
26:16I want to
26:17and put it
26:18anywhere on my
26:19map.
26:20It was also
26:21the decade that
26:22saw the final
26:22erosion of any
26:23barrier between
26:24the forecasters
26:25and their audience.
26:27Here they come
26:28now, wet, windy
26:29and a deep
26:29depressed
26:30over Neesden.
26:39By now they
26:40were public
26:40property.
26:43So there was
26:44suddenly this
26:45flowering of
26:46people coming
26:46out from their
26:46little niches
26:47and their
26:47little boxes.
26:51I'm singing
26:53in the rain
26:54You suddenly
26:55thought, what,
26:56the humans,
26:57they've got legs,
26:58they're not just
26:58from the waist up
26:58after all.
26:59The weather
27:00forecasters had
27:01become so big
27:02they even
27:03inspired some
27:03tribute acts.
27:04Hello.
27:06Hello.
27:07Yes.
27:08What, yeah.
27:09Mm.
27:10Yeah.
27:10It's going to be
27:11very nippy.
27:12Yes.
27:13Mm, yes.
27:14Want to wrap up
27:15warm.
27:15Mm, yeah.
27:16Yeah.
27:17Plenty of
27:17woolies.
27:18Yeah.
27:18You can't be too
27:19careful.
27:19I say you can't be
27:20too careful.
27:21Yeah, well, it's
27:22getting colder these
27:23days, don't you
27:23think?
27:24Oh, much colder.
27:25Yes.
27:26Well, bye-bye.
27:27Yeah.
27:27John Kennedy is
27:28a weatherman,
27:29a weatherman,
27:30a weatherman.
27:31John Kennedy is
27:32a weatherman,
27:33and so is
27:34Michael Fish,
27:35and so is
27:35Billy Charles,
27:37and so is
27:39the eye.
27:39As you see,
27:39it has these
27:40ripples on.
27:41One of these
27:41little ripples
27:42far to the west
27:43of us here are
27:43because we're
27:43going to be
27:44a bullfish,
27:46I wish,
27:47I wish.
27:48He was like
27:49Michael Fish,
27:51I wish,
27:51I wish,
27:52I wish,
27:52I wish.
27:53How does it
27:57feel to be a
27:57honk?
27:58Oh, wonderful.
27:59Wonderful.
28:00But just as
28:01weather presenters
28:01were getting more
28:02fun, the weather
28:03itself was taking
28:04a sinister turn.
28:07The disturbance
28:07in the equilibrium
28:08of the Antarctic's
28:09atmosphere is almost
28:10certainly caused
28:11by human activity.
28:13There were lots
28:13of ideas around
28:15and about ways
28:17in which man
28:17was affecting
28:18the environment.
28:20Some of that
28:20started in the
28:2170s, but certainly
28:22in the 80s
28:23they became
28:24very clear in
28:25the public
28:25consciousness,
28:26so things like
28:26ozone depletion
28:28and acid rain.
28:29The major
28:30cause of acid
28:31rain is sulfur
28:32dioxide.
28:33It can kill
28:33trees and poison
28:34lakes.
28:36And worse,
28:37nuclear fallout
28:38felt to many
28:39like a genuine
28:40threat.
28:41When the wind
28:41blows was a
28:42phrase that took
28:43on a whole new
28:44dark moon.
28:45The idea took
28:46hold that human
28:47activity might be
28:49destroying the
28:49planet.
28:50Just as the
28:51weather forecasters
28:52got less serious,
28:53the weather itself
28:54seemed to be
28:55getting darker
28:56and more
28:56threatening.
28:58No one knew
28:59it, but a storm
29:00was brewing.
29:02Good afternoon
29:03to you.
29:04Earlier on today
29:04apparently a woman
29:05rang the BBC
29:05and said she heard
29:06that there was a
29:07hurricane on the
29:07way.
29:08Well, if you're
29:08watching, don't
29:09worry, there
29:09isn't.
29:11Michael Fish's
29:12notorious no
29:14hurricane forecast
29:15is still remembered
29:1525 years on.
29:17Not because he was
29:18factually incorrect.
29:19He wasn't.
29:20There was no
29:21hurricane.
29:22This was a
29:22storm, a very
29:23surprising storm
29:24that came up
29:24from the Bay of
29:25Biscay, which
29:26hadn't been
29:26forecast.
29:28His misdemeanor
29:29was his tone
29:29of voice because
29:30it came across
29:31as an expert
29:32talking down to
29:34the little people,
29:35the lay people.
29:37And the fact
29:39that he was
29:40then, as it
29:40were, proved
29:41wrong by the
29:42weather that
29:43night showed
29:44that the weather
29:45is, as it
29:46were, not on the
29:47side of the
29:47experts.
29:47It's on the
29:48side of the
29:48lay people.
29:49You know, we
29:51got him.
29:56Or had we?
29:58The forecasters
29:59closed ranks and
30:00stood firm on the
30:01fact that the
30:02weather forecast had
30:03been technically
30:04correct.
30:05Experts today
30:06defended the Met
30:07Office.
30:07They said it
30:08wasn't really
30:09their fault.
30:09They didn't see
30:10what was coming.
30:11This type of
30:12depression is
30:12notoriously difficult
30:13to forecast
30:14accurately.
30:15If you look at
30:16that agonising
30:16performance by
30:17poor Ian
30:18McCaskill the
30:19following day,
30:21he was unable
30:24to say, we
30:25got it completely
30:26wrong.
30:27But under the
30:28most intense
30:29interrogation, he
30:31nearly broke
30:32poor man.
30:34Are you weathermen
30:34just shrugging your
30:35shoulders as a
30:36result of all this
30:36or is there an
30:37inquest going on
30:37down there at the
30:38weather centre?
30:39At this very
30:39minute and it
30:40will be for the
30:40next several
30:41months, we are
30:42getting better and
30:43better.
30:43This one, just
30:44stronger than we
30:45thought.
30:45No kidding.
30:47I mean, if you
30:47can't forecast the
30:49worst storms for
30:50several centuries,
30:51three hours before
30:51they happen, what
30:52are you doing?
30:53In the morning.
30:55And now the
30:56shipping forecast
30:56issued by the
30:57Met Office on
30:58behalf of the
30:58Maritime and
30:59Coast Guard
30:59Agency.
31:00There are warnings
31:01of gales in
31:01Fitzroy, Shannon
31:03and Rockall.
31:08Well, even
31:08though microfiche did
31:10say that there was
31:11going to be strong
31:11winds on their
31:12way, if you'd
31:13been listening to
31:14the shipping
31:14forecast on that
31:16night in October
31:171987, you'd have
31:18had a much clearer
31:19picture, an
31:19unambiguous gale
31:21warning, severe
31:22gale warning for
31:23southern England.
31:24There are warnings
31:25of gales in
31:26Thames, Dover,
31:27White, Portland,
31:29Plymouth,
31:29Biscay, Fitzroy,
31:31Sol, Lundy,
31:33Bosnet, Irish
31:34Sea, Shelley.
31:35The shipping
31:35forecast has
31:37remained almost
31:38exactly the same
31:39since the Met
31:39Office prepared
31:40the first one
31:41back in 1924,
31:43although there is
31:44one notable
31:45exception.
31:46In 2002, the
31:48sea area of
31:48Finisterre was
31:49renamed Fitzroy,
31:51in belated
31:52recognition of
31:53Robert Fitzroy's
31:54founding work at
31:55the Met Office.
31:56Shannon, west or
31:58northwest four or
31:59five, becoming
32:00cyclonic gale
32:01eight to storm
32:02ten later.
32:02The forecast,
32:04which has a word
32:05limit of 350 words,
32:07is broadcast every
32:08day on Radio 4
32:09Longwave at
32:110048, 0520,
32:141201 and 1754.
32:21And it has this
32:22incredible brevity,
32:23incredible concision.
32:25Every term used,
32:26such as imminently,
32:28later, good, have an
32:31absolutely precise
32:32definition.
32:33And once you've
32:34learnt what those
32:35definitions are,
32:36this is the most
32:38calibrated way of
32:39listening to weather
32:41information.
32:44I think, north of
32:46zero, south of
32:48zero, forties,
32:51cromity, fourth.
32:52There's a poetry
32:53about it, there's a
32:54real sense of history
32:55about it, the fact
32:55it's so unchanging and
32:57it's this iron horse of
32:58the broadcasting
32:58schedule, it's always
32:59there.
33:00Time, dogger, fisher,
33:03German, biker.
33:04Most people who
33:05listen to the
33:05shipping forecast have
33:06no need of it, but
33:07it is this kind of
33:08national lullaby.
33:09It's a walk around the
33:11perimeter of the
33:11British Isles before
33:12bedtime.
33:13And so we go on that
33:23tour and it stabilises us,
33:26but also, of course, it's
33:28a tour of places which
33:30feel to us dark and
33:31unknown.
33:33And so, again, we have
33:34that extraordinary fusion
33:36of a ritual that keeps us
33:39calm.
33:40It's a lullaby, but at
33:42the same time, it
33:43reminds us of what is
33:45unknowable and
33:46frightening and the
33:47dark waves which might
33:49toss up anything.
33:50Fitzroy, Seoul, London,
33:55Fastnet, Irish Sea,
33:58Shannon, Rockall,
34:01Marlin.
34:03The shipping forecast
34:03is there to save lives
34:05and that's why it has to
34:06be there at the same
34:07time every day, read in
34:08the same way and can't
34:09be shifted in the
34:10schedule, so they've
34:11really got to be
34:12specific and get it
34:13right and it's got to
34:13be heard in a way that
34:15people in, you know, a
34:17wheelhouse being washed
34:17over by massive waves
34:18can still hear it coming
34:20through on the crackly
34:20radio.
34:21On stations, on
34:22stations.
34:23Weather, occasional rain
34:24or drizzle for a time.
34:26Visibility, module good,
34:28occasionally poor for a
34:30time.
34:31The shipping forecast is
34:33still vital for many
34:34fishermen up and down the
34:35country.
34:37Tim Curtis is a Cornish
34:38Scalloper.
34:40He needs to spend 200
34:41days at sea every year if
34:43he's to make ends meet.
34:51The scalloping is very
34:52weather dependent.
34:54We need fine weather.
34:55If there's a lot of swell,
34:57then our catch rate goes
34:58down by half.
35:00Anything over force for
35:01like onshore wind, then
35:03we can't go.
35:05The swell in the water
35:06means the dredges are
35:09sort of jumping up and
35:09down on the bottom and
35:11we're just wasting fuel
35:12then.
35:13So it's uneconomic to go.
35:14So we work as hard as we
35:15can when the weather's fine
35:16and stay in when it's
35:18poor.
35:18For Tim, the shipping
35:25forecast is essential to his
35:27business.
35:29It can make the difference
35:31between a day in the
35:32harbour or a dawn heading
35:36out into open waters.
35:37We check the weather every
35:44day, multiple times a day
35:45and we listen to the
35:48coast guard reports, we
35:49access the internet,
35:51television on the boat.
35:53Usually we know the day
35:54before whether we're going
35:56the next day and then it's
35:58a final visual check in the
35:59morning before you go.
36:00Viking, north Utsira,
36:02south Utsira.
36:03Southeastly four or five,
36:05increasing six or seven,
36:06perhaps scale eight later,
36:08then varying southwesterly
36:09five or six.
36:10Occasional rain,
36:12moderate or good,
36:13occasionally poor.
36:15Bad weather can do more
36:16than stop boats going out.
36:19Storms have nearly destroyed
36:20Polpero harbour, which
36:22Tim works out of.
36:26Polpero is tucked away on
36:27the Cornish coast.
36:30Its very existence is due to
36:32the weather, partially
36:33shielded from the prevailing
36:34southwesterly winds.
36:36The community was, and still
36:38is, dependent on the sea.
36:47Acting harbourmaster, Olly
36:49Pucky, keeps a constant watch
36:51on the weather.
36:54Everybody involved with the sea
36:57listens to the weather forecast.
36:59It's like everything stops.
37:02No, the weather's on.
37:04No, drop everything and go
37:05and listen to it.
37:08A storm gate protects the harbour,
37:10so when the forecast predicts bad weather,
37:13the community can act.
37:16This harbour is very exposed
37:18and very now reliant on the storm gate
37:22we have there.
37:23It's surprising how quickly the sea
37:27can build up here.
37:29In the middle of the night,
37:31if the wind does pick up,
37:33you know, somebody is there
37:34on hand to save the harbour.
37:36Now, the satellite picture sets the scene.
37:43It shows the British Isles,
37:44in fact, is underneath there somewhere.
37:46A lot of cloud and, indeed,
37:48a lot of rain too to the south.
37:49Another band of wet weather
37:50further north as well.
37:53Despite a freezing start,
37:54the 1990s were a mild decade,
37:58with the winters one degree warmer
37:59on average than the winters of the 1960s.
38:03The Met Office opened a centre
38:05for research into the Earth's climate,
38:07just as questions about possible climate change
38:10were being raised.
38:11In the coming years,
38:13sales of sun cream would go through the roof
38:15and worries about global warming
38:17engulfed previous concerns
38:20about acid rain and the ozone layer.
38:22It's very clear that climate is changing
38:24and that we have, you know,
38:26a lot of confidence that a lot of that change
38:29is to do with the release of greenhouse gases
38:31by society.
38:34What's difficult to know
38:35is exactly how they'll change climate and weather
38:39on very small-scale scales
38:40that really affect people.
38:42Chaos theory had taught meteorologists
38:45that the weather was never going to be 100% predictable.
38:49Now, climate change brought another idea
38:51of unpredictability,
38:53that the weather might change
38:54in all sorts of unknowable ways.
38:57Southwesterly winds,
38:58but these northwesterlies already into the West Country,
39:00they'll be pushing their way across,
39:01bringing clearer weather and colder weather too.
39:05Someone who's been keeping an eye
39:07on the volatility of weather
39:08is wine producer Bob Lindo.
39:10He's been growing grapes for the past 14 years
39:13on the lush slopes of his Cornish vineyard.
39:16Vineyard springing up
39:18is a sign of global warming in itself.
39:21There's no doubt about it.
39:23There is no doubt about it.
39:24I can tell you that it's a polytunnel warmer here
39:27than it was when we started,
39:28because when we started, we had polytunnels.
39:29I can be more than anecdotal.
39:33We've analysed the weather data
39:34and we compiled a 10-year rolling average
39:39of temperatures over 10 years,
39:41and there's a definite increase over 10 years,
39:45and it has been for 20 years.
39:47It's not open to debate.
39:50Those figures are recorded
39:51and it's the same everywhere you look in Britain.
39:55But it's still a challenge
39:57to grow grapes in the British climate.
40:00Oh, I don't think I'm ever not checking them over, really.
40:05If we get a late frost in Easter time,
40:07that wipes the whole year out.
40:09Well, only two days ago,
40:11the forecast really was water or sunshine,
40:13and suddenly they started to talk about turning colder,
40:16and then they started to talk about hints of frost,
40:18and then you see on the weather pictures
40:20that you're starting to get light winds over the west here,
40:22so we could get a night frost.
40:24If you get a night frost, that's the end of the ripening.
40:27You can still pick the grapes if you pick them all straight away,
40:29but you can't ripen them any more without the leaves.
40:31The leaves are the sugar factory.
40:34Bob has learned to encourage extra leaves
40:36to grow around the grapes,
40:38which act as a blanket and allow the fruit to ripen.
40:42Well, we tried all sorts of ways to conquer the weather,
40:44and in the end you tend to try and live with it.
40:46I mean, for example, with frost,
40:47we started early on, we got up at night
40:49and lit straw bales to try and keep the frost away.
40:51That didn't work.
40:52And then people will invent magic sprays
40:56and you try them and they don't work.
40:58And then we actually bought a machine
41:00that was like a flamethrower
41:02that put around a hundred-foot jet of hot,
41:04a hundred-metre jet of hot air.
41:06That didn't work.
41:07None of these things really work.
41:08So it's better to try and go with the weather,
41:10with nature, if you like,
41:12than it is to try and beat it.
41:13The weather really influences the quantity
41:19that we're going to get, really.
41:20That's the main effect for the weather.
41:23In terms of the flavours, really, for the vines,
41:26even when it's warm, we think it's warm,
41:28it's still very cold for the vines.
41:29So we still always get these really light,
41:32delicate English flavours that you associate with England,
41:35like strawberries, raspberries, gooseberries,
41:37elderflowers, pears, apples.
41:38We always get those flavours
41:40because it's always cold for the vines.
41:48So this morning, then, our band of rain
41:49that we've just seen coming in to the west
41:52will steadily start to push over towards the east.
41:56The new millennium saw the beginning of weather
41:59that seemed difficult to categorise.
42:02There were floods, droughts...
42:05It's the same in...
42:06..and even a tornado.
42:07Across the city, the damage is extreme and localised.
42:11Dozens of streets at speeds reaching 130 miles an hour.
42:16Little could withstand such power.
42:19Erratic weather was matched by some unusual forecasts
42:22when, in 2005, Jeremy Paxman was told
42:26to read the weather at the end of news night.
42:28Here it is, Sean of the usual folksy nonsense
42:31about clouds bubbling up
42:32and advice about wearing woolly socks.
42:34Eastern parts will mainly avoid the rain,
42:36except for those that don't,
42:38and there'll be bright or sunny intervals.
42:41Western areas will be cloudy with rain,
42:43except in those places that don't have rain.
42:45Temperatures will be near normal.
42:46But the forecasts on news night were soon forgotten
42:51when the BBC proudly unveiled their new-look weather map,
42:55designed to cope with the vagaries of the ever-changing weather.
42:59Fantastic new graphics.
43:00Just a shame it's the same old weather.
43:02The colder air coming in behind this thicker cloud
43:04that's in the south.
43:05It's giving some light and patchy rain.
43:06It's just nudging its way towards the south-west.
43:09Here's the clearer skies.
43:10You can see the change in colour.
43:11That's clearer skies,
43:12and with light winds, it's going to be really cold.
43:14As we come closer in,
43:16this cloud in the south is giving a few spots of rain.
43:19The new three-dimensional animated map was record-breaking.
43:23It cost over a million pounds to produce,
43:25and it drew 4,000 complaints as soon as it appeared.
43:29I don't like the map very much.
43:44I think it looks a bit like Weetabix
43:45has been left in the milk too long now.
43:47Not everyone disliked the map,
43:49but complaints rained down
43:51about the cameras swooping across the country,
43:53about the lack of place names.
43:56In fact, about every aspect of the new visuals.
44:00The viewing public is very quick to complain
44:03and to take notice of any kind of change
44:06in how the weather is presented.
44:09It's a very comforting ritual, an evening ritual,
44:13and people are very upset when this ritual is changed.
44:17Later on in the week, that's it from me.
44:19Thank you very much.
44:20I think it's a collective ownership of the weather,
44:21and as a result, we feel like we've got
44:23a collective ownership of the weather forecast as well.
44:26But the changes were not just superficial.
44:29One of them in particular appeared to some
44:31to be politically motivated.
44:34A real first for the BBC.
44:38National weather with only England and Wales
44:40getting predictions.
44:41I can't even see what the weather forecast
44:43will be for my part of the country.
44:46Flatten the map, BBC,
44:47and make it a proper forecast.
44:49The map was tilted away from the viewer,
44:52making Scotland look about ten times smaller
44:55than England and Wales,
44:56when in fact, it's half the size.
44:59Angus McNeil, the SNP MP for the Western Isles,
45:02raised questions in the House of Commons,
45:04saying that this was, you know,
45:07that if it had been tilted the other way,
45:10then Barra would look larger than London.
45:13A fortnight after the rebranded weather had appeared,
45:16the BBC bowed to pressure
45:18and undid some of the changes.
45:20Most significantly,
45:21it gave Scotland its landmass back.
45:24Fingers crossed for a few sunny spells
45:26towards the south-east,
45:27and here then we're looking at a top temperature
45:29of 21 or 22.
45:31But forecasting had moved on,
45:36and the map had to keep up.
45:42These days, the BBC Weather Centre meteorologists
45:45have cutting-edge technology
45:46to help them compile forecasts for the days ahead.
45:50It's an incredibly complex process.
45:53You take millions of observations from around the world,
45:56put that into a supercomputer,
45:58which has got more than a million lines of code,
46:00doing trillions of calculations.
46:02And with all of that,
46:03you churn out the forecasts
46:05that you see on the television.
46:06Ultimately, that is the end result.
46:09Duty meteorologist Laura Gilchrist
46:11has Met Office technology at her fingertips
46:14to help her prepare the television weather maps.
46:17So here is my Met Office computer,
46:20which I can use to view weather observations
46:22from all around the globe.
46:23At the moment, I'm showing a map of the UK,
46:25as you can see,
46:26and it has overlaid the visible satellite imagery,
46:29which we can receive from space.
46:31This is how it would look to people
46:33on the International Space Station at the moment.
46:35So we can see a lot of cloud over here.
46:37Overlaid over the top is radar,
46:39which is rainfall imagery,
46:42and basically that's showing
46:43this curl of rain is what we had last night.
46:45That's clearing away.
46:46There's a few showers around,
46:47but both of the radar and the satellite
46:49are showing me right now
46:50that there's a good deal of really nice weather
46:52down in the southwest at the moment,
46:53which is going to move across us this afternoon
46:55and give us quite a nice day.
46:59The most recent IBM computer they had installed
47:01can process 125 billion pieces of information per second.
47:07That's more than there are human beings on the planet every second.
47:11Supercomputers have done what humans alone could never do.
47:14A four-day forecast today
47:16is as accurate as a one-day forecast 30 years ago.
47:20In pre-computer days,
47:22there was one meteorologist who,
47:24almost as a joke,
47:26calculated that it would require 64,000 people
47:30working simultaneously on the data
47:32to produce an accurate weather forecast.
47:37Even with all this advanced technology,
47:39the weather can still evade the forecaster.
47:42So, remember that barbecue summer we were told to expect?
47:49Well, guess what?
47:50It's not going to happen.
47:51In fact, the Met Office says
47:53it never actually promised us one in the first place.
47:55They just said we were odds-on for hot weather.
47:58Welcome to the barbecue summer
48:00at Keswick in the Lake District.
48:03It remains a very imprecise,
48:05very inexact science,
48:08so that when surprising events happen,
48:11as happened in 2012,
48:12when a drought that had been predicted to last all summer
48:15was immediately followed by the heaviest rains on record,
48:19this is beyond the capacity of even the biggest computer.
48:25Recently, a conference was held
48:27at the Met Office headquarters in Exeter
48:29to discuss this unusual sequence of weather events.
48:32Looking into the future,
48:36the weather will become even more varied
48:38and potentially even more extreme as well,
48:41so you'll have more extremes of rainfall.
48:43Already that's happening.
48:44If you look at the records,
48:46we're getting, say, four days of extreme rainfall in a year
48:49compared with what was three days before.
48:52And because the weather is very varied in the UK,
48:55perhaps we'll notice those extremes more
48:57and they'll have more of an impact.
49:00Every day, over 350 weather events
49:02are broadcast with the on-duty forecasters
49:05having to negotiate this uncertainty.
49:08On top of that,
49:09they must try and deliver the science
49:11in the clearest possible way.
49:14Meteorologist Carol Kirkwood
49:15has been presenting the weather at the BBC for 20 years.
49:19It's a science,
49:21and there's no point going on here
49:22talking about sympathetic troughs or PVAs
49:24because nobody would know what we were talking about.
49:26So what we have to do
49:27is translate that meteorological information
49:29into everyday language
49:32and if you don't do that,
49:33in my opinion, you have failed.
49:35There is a level of entertainment in it
49:37because you have to keep somebody engaged
49:39and somebody watching.
49:40If you talk in a monotone voice all the time,
49:43like, good morning,
49:43it's going to be wet and windy today,
49:45it'll be sunny across Northern Ireland,
49:46and it's like, what happened there?
49:50I get accused a lot of smiling,
49:52but I can't help it because I love my job.
49:53I don't deliberately set out to smile.
49:55I will at the beginning and the end,
49:57but when I'm doing it,
49:58it's enthusiasm,
49:59it's our subject,
50:00it's meteorology.
50:01We're fascinated by it as well.
50:03So you try and deliver it
50:05in the best form
50:07that is appropriate for that weather.
50:10And you can see temperature-wise,
50:12again, that cool feel
50:13coming across Scotland,
50:15Northern Ireland,
50:15and Northern England,
50:16but still, in comparison,
50:18relatively mild in the southeast.
50:20Expectations are high.
50:31There's enormous pressure on the Met Office
50:33to get the forecasts right,
50:35and on the weather presenters
50:36to communicate them clearly and concisely.
50:39The weird thing about weather forecasting
50:41is it has a language all of its own.
50:44Forecasters on a daily basis
50:46use expressions that are never used
50:49in any other walk of life.
50:51Thunder only ever comes
50:53in odd rumbles.
50:57And as with all things weather-related,
50:59people like complaining about it.
51:01Sometimes I laugh
51:02with the ridiculous praises that are used.
51:06I could give you some examples.
51:08Cloud bubbling up, for instance.
51:11Bits and pieces of rain.
51:13We'll have a weather front sitting down.
51:15We are going to have a sandwich
51:17of weather today.
51:19A little ribbon of cloud
51:21flirting with the southwest.
51:23Sharp showers.
51:23Why are showers?
51:24Why should showers be sharp?
51:26I mean, knives are sharp.
51:27A squally band moving currently
51:30through Kent, Essex, and Suffolk.
51:32It's always been true
51:33that weather forecasters
51:34must cater for a large and varied audience.
51:37Pleasing all the people
51:39all of the time is no easy matter.
51:41So you certainly can't describe
51:43the weather as dull
51:43over the next couple of days,
51:45Charlie and Susanna.
51:46It'll keep us interested then, Carol,
51:48even as we get wet.
51:49Certainly will.
51:49Thanks very much.
51:51This ambiguity of tone
51:53between being a scientist on the one hand
51:56and being a television personality on the other,
51:59this has been an issue
52:00over the last 60 years.
52:02With the weather becoming more extreme,
52:06the forecast is more important than ever,
52:09especially in places
52:10that are vulnerable to the elements.
52:12At the 4th road bridge
52:25on the east coast of Scotland,
52:27maintenance supervisor George Hamilton
52:29is always worrying about the conditions.
52:31As far as my job's concerned,
52:35I have to,
52:35I live with the weather.
52:37As soon as I get in,
52:38the first thing I do
52:38is get a weather report.
52:42Tommy, could you give me
52:43a wind speed and direction, please?
52:475, Gerson, 7, from the west.
52:51Now, I've seen myself out there
52:53with the boys working
52:54and all of a sudden
52:56you can actually see it coming from the west,
52:58the black cloud and the wind.
52:59And you don't have much time to get off.
53:03The wind just catches you,
53:04so you've got to be very aware,
53:05if you like, you know.
53:08High winds affect the road traffic too.
53:11The weather at the bridge
53:12is monitored 24 hours a day
53:14from the control centre
53:15and speed restrictions are put in place
53:18if winds become too strong.
53:20But not everyone heeds those warnings.
53:24In extreme wind conditions,
53:26if you look out there at the mid-span,
53:28it can actually go east to west
53:30between 6 metres and 7 metres
53:33when that's an awful lot of movement.
53:35And things like that,
53:36the bridge would be closed in that.
53:38Every day, George is utterly reliant
53:41on the weather forecast.
53:43Every morning I listen to Carol Kitwood on BBC
53:45and, you know, she's my queen, you know.
53:49So I've got to listen to her
53:50before I come out in the morning, you know.
53:53I listen to everything she tells us
53:54because she's pretty good, you know.
53:58The fourth road bridge is very high maintenance.
54:02Every inch needs to be constantly checked
54:04and weatherproofed.
54:06You're always thinking about the weather.
54:09At the moment I've got the painters.
54:11You can look at the suspender wires
54:13that's holding the bridge up.
54:15We're painting them.
54:16We need the weather for that
54:17and we need the wind.
54:19The rain's no good.
54:20And that's ongoing.
54:21It'll take us about six years to finish that.
54:23But as soon as we're finished that,
54:24we're back at the first one again
54:26because you get quite a bit of corrosion.
54:29So it's ongoing.
54:31It's never ending, you know.
54:32I hate the weather.
54:45Over the last 60 years,
54:48weather forecasting has gone from this to this.
54:51Perfect predictions are a dream we persist with,
55:02despite all the evidence that they will never be possible.
55:04Oh, no!
55:05We all now consume weather forecast information on our phones.
55:09We all use apps and we all expect those weather apps
55:12to tell us whether it's going to rain for us
55:15in the exact location that we are.
55:17Whether we can really do it down to the postcode scale
55:20that people expect,
55:21I think is probably a matter for debate
55:23and probably we can't right now.
55:26But I think that's probably where weather forecasting is going,
55:28this very kind of hyper-local idea.
55:30For all the gadgets and new technologies,
55:35many still want some human engagement.
55:39Watching the weather forecast is a daily ritual for millions.
55:43There's some interesting social science research recently
55:45which showed that huge numbers of people
55:49watch the weather forecast after the news.
55:52But when interviewed afterwards,
55:53most of them, about 70% of them,
55:55couldn't remember at all what was said about the weather.
55:58They were allowing it to sort of glide over them
56:00as a kind of national conversation about the weather.
56:05And part of the national conversation about the weather
56:07will always be about problems with the forecast.
56:10I'm quite reassured, in a way,
56:12that the weather forecast is wrong
56:14because it means there are still mysteries.
56:15The meteorologists today will be the first to admit
56:17we can't control it.
56:18We can predict it to the best of our abilities,
56:20but the default position is we don't know what it's going to do.
56:23This is the best we can do.
56:24And I think that's very healthy.
56:25It's important to remember
56:28that the weather forecast is a triumph of technology
56:31in a science still very much in its infancy.
56:35I think our forecasting skills
56:36are going to become even better than they currently are
56:39with the evolution of technology
56:41and the information available to us,
56:43the satellites that we have orbiting the Earth.
56:46It can only get better.
56:47The computers are getting faster and faster all the time,
56:50as is the knowledge that we have about our climate.
56:52The weather forecast has become a touchstone,
56:55a moment of calm in our stormy, uncertain times.
57:00I think our relationship with the weather
57:03triggers all our fears about flux and chaos,
57:08and because of that,
57:09triggers our deepest investment in ordering,
57:13in ritual, in trying to tell the future.
57:16And the weather forecast,
57:18just those few minutes after the news,
57:20somehow manages to condense all of that into our daily lives.
57:25How luxury, freedom, and the romantic two-seater
57:28came to epitomise British motoring
57:31here on BBC4 this evening.
57:32From the Sprite to the Herald,
57:34E-Type to the Midget,
57:36the gems of motoring are stripped bare,
57:38with time shift next.
57:40And then at 11,
57:41we're taking a trip to breathtaking Yellowstone National Park.
57:44Music
57:50.
57:53.
57:57.
57:58.
58:00.
58:01.
58:03.
58:04.
58:11.
58:12.
58:12.
Be the first to comment