Consider This: Sabah Election (Part 2) — After the Ballot - Video Dailymotion

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Sabah’s state election has delivered a fragmented but revealing verdict. Local parties dominated, GRS returned to power without a clear majority, and urban voters sent a sharp message of dissatisfaction. How will these results reshape state and federal political dynamics going forward? On this episode of #ConsiderThis Melisa Idris speaks with Dr Bridget Welsh from the Asia Research Institute at University of Nottingham Malaysia.

Transcript

00:00Hi, welcome back to Consider This. I'm Melissa Idris. Let's continue our analysis of Sabah's

00:16election outcome as we look at the broader political implications from coalition stability

00:22to the pressures facing the incoming state government. Joining me now is Dr. Bridget

00:28Welch, who is with the Asia Research Institute at University of Nottingham, Malaysia. Bridget,

00:34thank you so much for coming on the show. I know you've just come back from Sabah. What stood out

00:39to you as the most defining trend in this election? I mean, particularly in terms of voter sentiment

00:45and the political mood across the state. I think there are three things that I'd really highlight.

00:51I mean, everybody knows it's all about this was an election about local parties. And I think that

00:57but I think a lot of people in the peninsula of Malaysia don't understand that this is

01:02not really as much as an anti-Malaya sentiment as people would talk about. It's more about

01:09getting them the things that they deserve, the revenue that they need for basic needs, the

01:14issue to address the kind of the gaps in terms of infrastructure. And they look to Sarawak

01:20as being able to actually deliver economic development and to have more voice and more power

01:25to control their own livelihoods. And so I think this sentiment was very strong. I think the second

01:31thing that people don't fully appreciate is that there was an undercurrent about a real push for change.

01:38And that change came through youth mobilization, youth voting, youth candidates. And I think that this is

01:46something that perhaps the current government in Saba has yet to fully appreciate, that a lot of the

01:53seats were driven by the dynamics of younger people. A good example of that is Karambunai, where Paswan had

02:0041% of younger voters. And the margin was very close. And that's people under 30, 41%. So you have to

02:08understand that this is partly a factor that's shaping the dynamic of Saba politics. And the third thing that I

02:15think is important to appreciate is that the power of incumbency. And incumbency is not just about

02:22having money and resources, although I think clearly the GRS had the most money and resources in their

02:27campaign. I think the other factor is that people wanted to have access to government. And this again

02:34speaks to the vulnerabilities or the sense as well as a certain degree of sense of wanting to stay steady,

02:40to not have uncertainty. And so they vote for those in power. And GRS had the best campaign to define

02:47themselves as the government in a time when everyone is claiming to be part of the government.

02:53Bridget, so talk to me about the first message that you talked about, the fact that local parties

02:59dominated, but it really wasn't an anti-Malaya sentiment or not as strong as it's been portrayed in

03:06mainstream media. When you look at the new state cabinet that's just been sworn in, we see the

03:12inclusion of PH and, I don't know, Barisa National reps in the state cabinet. How do you reconcile that

03:21with the kind of Saba first sentiment versus the push for Sabahans to get what they need? How local

03:32is this cabinet really? Okay, so let's first unpack the first part. I do think one cannot

03:38dismiss the fact that there was anti-Peninsular Malaysia sentiment. And I think there was genuine

03:46anger. I think particularly there was anger at comments about the appeal of the 40%. There was anger

03:53about the top-down sort of colonial type of attitude that Sabahans should follow. I mean, Sabahans

03:59basically send that very clear message that they're tired of being treated as second-class citizens,

04:04or even for some of them, third-class citizens vis-a-vis Sarawak. And I think that message needs

04:09to be understood in that context. I think there's, but I would also say that not all of this is

04:15negative. I mean, I think people paint this as a black and white situation, that federal-state

04:21relationship, when one gets power, the other one doesn't. It's not that way. Both groups could be

04:27empowered if you find a way to sort of give the funds and perhaps over a longer period of time,

04:32you know, and a stronger Sabah is a stronger Malaysia. A stronger Malaysia is a stronger

04:36Malaysia for everyone, not just one place versus the other. So I think this is the way that I,

04:42you know, I'm trying to describe this is to acknowledge that it's not one or the other.

04:46Now in the cabinet, we can see that there is two conflicting pressures. The Sabah first movement,

04:53which I think was pretty clear, both that Waris had adopted it, but also they were particularly,

04:59you know, they had party local in this phrase, right? And APCO pushed it. Those things were there,

05:06and they still talk about having a local party, local party-driven agenda and voices to set that.

05:13But I also think that pressure is at the same time with the fact that they need to have a relationship

05:19with the federal government in order to be able to engage in negotiations, to have dialogue and

05:26discussions. And so therefore you see the cabinet accommodating a bit of both. Predominantly in the

05:33major positions, particularly the major ministry positions, as well as the DCM positions, as well as

05:39the CM ship there, these are local party members, defined as not having any connection to Peninsula

05:46Malaysia, such as Barasa National or DAP or APKR, for example. And then there are some other ministry

05:53positions and assistant ministry positions that are given to other parties to maintain that bridge.

06:00And I think that, you know, Sabah politics has always been about a process of accommodation,

06:05a process of bridge building, even when you have to deal with the issues of policy implementation.

06:12Unlike Sarawak, Sabah has more dependent on the federal government because of the civil servants

06:17from the federal government. We can see that there is a different financial arrangement. And I think

06:22that is part of what Sabah is trying to change, but also to redefine with a particular stronger voice

06:30at the table. Bridgette, you've written some analysis on the results of the sub-elections.

06:37In the first part of your analysis, you wrote about the Warisan wave. And I'm curious to know more

06:43about why Warisan performed so strongly in the urban areas. And this ties into what you said about

06:50the push for change. Talk to me a little bit more about that. So I think it's important to put the

06:56context of Warisan's performance in the emergence of the history of the party. When it emerged in 2018,

07:01you saw that it won 29 seats. I mean, and it was a real dynamism. And it won seats in the more

07:07northern parts of Sabah, as well as the even parts of the interior. It was a real wave that was more

07:13holistic. Now we can see that the ethnic politics in Sabah has really defined some of the limitations

07:20of where they get support, particularly they don't necessarily win from high levels of KDM support.

07:26But what they did do in this campaign is they managed to win many seats along the east coast,

07:30especially in places like Sandakan. And then they also won seats in the places in the urban areas

07:38in the west coast, particularly in KK. And this came from the narrative that they said,

07:43wheel before him the government. And also it was, they were also the most articulate and the most

07:49local out of all of the options. And I think that Shafi Abdel's campaign was a strength in terms of it

07:57having this clear message. It was also a weakness in the sense that he wasn't able to find support from

08:03other different types of regions. And that while he got 25 seats, which were two more than he won in 23,

08:10I think that, you know, he did not have the same breath associated with the representation. The

08:17numbers were higher for everyone else. So I also think that Warisan didn't have a plan B

08:23as carefully articulated as GRS did. GRS not only was able to get a majority, but they were very quick

08:31in being able to form a government. They had already put things in place much more quickly. I think Warisan

08:37still was going into this with a sense that they were going to get the numbers, which I think it

08:42was a sense that I think is overhyped. And then also there's discussion about Warisan in terms of

08:49winning the most votes. Well, of course, anybody who wins in the urban areas wins the most votes.

08:54So I think this is, but they didn't win the most seats. And keep in mind that 25 is not,

08:59uh, is only a small share, uh, uh, not even quite a little bit over a third of the 73.

09:06Okay. So the, the quantum, the number of seats matters. Bridget, talk to me about Pakatan Harapan. So,

09:13um, there's been, you know, descriptions of, uh, a trouncing of, of PKR and, uh, DAP. Are there lessons

09:23for Pakatan Harapan from the results of these elections?

09:28I think one has to distinguish, uh, between PKR and DAP. Uh, I think, uh, but bottom line

09:35is that they were the groups that were punished. And in particular, uh, the PMX Sayang Sampa campaign,

09:42which was not articulated in a way that people could connect to. So you're saying they're giving you

09:49money, but in fact, the problems are there. So they say 1 billion for water and people don't have

09:55water. So there's like a real disconnect between the promises of allocations and the actual reality

10:00on the ground. And then there's also the question of the discourse of how it's being saved. Like,

10:05you know, I'm giving it to you as if you didn't deserve it, right? Like you're getting it as a present.

10:10All right. And, and this is, and there was the sense that they were talked down to again, that third

10:15class citizenship in terms of how it was said, the messaging in these processes. And I think that

10:21particular element, along with a question of trust about the questions of the 40%, uh, really had a

10:28tremendous red anger against Harapan. And, and DAP was in the firing line because they were in many of

10:36the urban seats. So, but keep in mind, PKR also didn't do well. And it's important to understand that

10:42the one PKR representative really isn't a member of PKR because he was a member of UMNO and PGRS

10:49until very recently. Uh, and I think that, you know, uh, he, he's now perhaps a member of PKR and

10:55he represents the party. But the fact is, is that almost nobody who came from PKR within the state,

11:00uh, really had a lot of the seats that were at the state level and equally important. They didn't

11:06necessarily have, uh, a voice. And I think both, uh, DAP and PKR are going to have to face serious

11:14reflections on their performance. Uh, and also I think that this is a time for the federal government

11:20parties, those in government to think about how it treats and engages with Saba. You know,

11:26if you treat them as second, secondary, you're going to get a blowback. And I think this is,

11:30this was a very clear message. The anger against Pakatan Harapan was palpable. Uh, uh, you know,

11:38people would be shouting, uh, uh, in this circumstances, which, you know, you, this is not,

11:44this is not the way Sabahans often react, but, and you can see from the numbers, the level of swing.

11:49So for example, they're both, there was a Chinese and KDM swing in the, uh, uh, urban areas,

11:56a Chinese swing of 40% away from DAP and what they had that resulted in all eight seats. It didn't

12:02matter. Even good performing and, uh, uh, uh, all gone, as you said, bunkus, everything's finished.

12:09All right. I had all wrapped up and finished. And then you had a situation where, you know, uh,

12:14candidates and then see safe, quote unquote, safe seats in urban areas for Pakatan Harapan also left.

12:19And keep in mind that this speaks to the base of both Pakatan Harapan and PKR, DAP and PKR and Pakatan

12:27Harapan generally, um, as, uh, in terms of the implication nationally. And it was also, unfortunately,

12:35for Anwar Ibrahim, who made this campaign about his pictures, it was also interpreted as a submission

12:42set to him and to his governance, which I think is a real challenge that calls for deep reflection,

12:48not just saying your reflection, but actual reflection. Right. Uh, Bridget, unfortunately,

12:53that's all the time we have. I could talk to you about some of my politics for far longer,

12:58but that's all the time we have on this episode of Consider This. Thank you so much

13:01for sharing some of your insights with us. That was Dr. Bridget Welsh from the Asia Research Institute

13:07at University of Nottingham, Malaysia, wrapping up this episode of Consider This. I'm Melissa Idris,

13:12signing off for the evening. Thank you so much for watching and good night.

Consider This: Sabah Election (Part 2) — After the Ballot

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