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Transcript

00:00He knows that nobody can advise, you know, Gandhis, particularly Rahul and Priyanka.

00:05Like you, I'm an independent observer and we do comment and make a livelihood out of it.

00:10But capacity to advise very much.

00:12Who has written more books on the Gandhis, which even the Gandhis can't read?

00:16I've written on Sinha's also, so I mean, I don't advise them.

00:21Yeah, but you're talking about people who don't like to read about themselves.

00:23You see, the Gandhis need to sort of reinvent and look at, they think that it is their,

00:27you know, duty to take that into the Congress party leadership.

00:31It's called entitlement. It's a simple word, entitlement.

00:35No, he's saying what will Congress happen? When will this leadership change happen?

00:38Well, I would say the coughs is still alive and kicking, so it will continue.

00:42Anand, there's an old saying in a particular play.

00:46He's saying the coughs is still alive and kicking.

00:46It says, operation successful, patient dead.

00:50That is the surgical prowess of the Congress party today.

00:54I think the test of Congress will come in the next round of assembly elections.

00:57Well, it will be a direct contender, particularly in Kerala.

01:00You said that, you said that 10, 11 years ago also,

01:03that their time will come, their time will come, their time will come.

01:06No, 11 years ago, they won in Kerala.

01:09Now, see, by that logic, they also won two MLAs seats in UP.

01:13Now, Rashid, if you have to defend them, don't defend them.

01:15Thank you. No, no, thank you, Rashid, you're going to get some grub.

01:19We've got Sopandas Gupta Ji's also.

01:21Welcome, sir. Welcome. Thank you. Thank you very much.

01:23I'm going to say, I'm going to vacate the course for you.

01:26The course is ready for you.

01:27Yes, yes, yes.

01:30Zakha, what's the plot?

01:31Just a quick check on the map.

01:33So, it's 150 par, as it was, for the NDA.

01:36Just a breakup of the alliance partners.

01:38The BJP at 68, the JDU at 68.

01:42I keep looking at the gains.

01:43For the JDU, it's a 25-seat gain from 2020.

01:47BJP is down six.

01:48But remember, the BJP is fighting 14 seats less this time.

01:52The LJP, and I think this is a pretty good record.

01:54Out of 29 seats that he's fighting, he's leading in 14.

01:58The Harm Party in four and the RLM in two.

02:00But really, I think the story of the NDA alliance is the revival of the JDU.

02:04And if you look at the map, it's across.

02:06The light green of the JDU is across different regions.

02:09Whether it's in Bhojpur, whether it is in Magad,

02:12whether it is in the eastern part, the Bhagalpur belt,

02:14or even in Mithilanchal, they seem to be doing across regions.

02:18And when a party does well across regions, you know it's pulling its weight.

02:22So it's neck and neck between the JDU and the BJP,

02:24as far as the NDA alliance is concerned.

02:26India alliance, on the other hand, it's a different story.

02:29The only color you see largely is purple, which is the RJD.

02:32But even the RJD is 20 seats down from last time.

02:35Last time, the RJD had 75.

02:36They're down to 52.

02:37The Congress had 19 last time.

02:40They're down to 17.

02:41Again, the left parties, between all of them,

02:43CPML, CPI, CPM, they had 15 last time.

02:46They're down to 7 seats.

02:48Zaka, Zaka, see the leads have been at 238 for a while now,

02:51but the NDA seat count has been going up.

02:53It went up from 152 to 157.

02:56That means increasingly, as we are plotting Bihar,

02:59live for our viewers, as the results are coming in,

03:02the leads are coming in, viewers,

03:04the NDA is pulling more seats away from the INDIA.

03:08Swapanji, welcome.

03:09Please, your thoughts.

03:10My apologies, you are Swapan and Swapan Das Gupta.

03:13I end up saying Swapan Das, my apologies.

03:15First of all, I'm asking you to ask Swapanji.

03:17Well, thanks for getting the ethnic things right.

03:19But I think what's very clear is that

03:24this is quite an emphatic mandate.

03:26You know, what at least it appears to be at present.

03:29And secondly, that the pool machinery

03:35which the NDA has set up,

03:38which is based not on might or muscle power,

03:42it's based really on certain arithmetic,

03:45juggling of arithmetic,

03:47playing expediently caste politics at times,

03:53class politics at times,

03:55other factors, whenever it suits them.

03:57That seems to have worked again in a very good way,

04:00just like it did in Delhi,

04:02where really it was the organization

04:05at the micro level which played the part,

04:08and in Haryana which too again.

04:10So, it's that same pattern

04:12which is being repeated in Maharashtra,

04:15Haryana, Delhi,

04:16160, 240 leads, 160 number.

04:19160 was the target that was set by the NDA.

04:22Three more leads that have yet to come.

04:24And they seem to be continuously moving in one way.

04:28This holds, yeah.

04:29And we are getting into the third,

04:30second, third round of counting

04:32in a lot of the counting centers.

04:33First round of counting of EVMs is already done.

04:3546 counting centers in all.

04:37As the trend starts,

04:38when a party or an alliance is ahead,

04:41as it closes,

04:43they tend to get the advantage.

04:44Pull together even more.

04:45I will not be surprised if that goes even higher

04:47as you get to the end.

04:48Now, this is historic.

04:49This is a historic mandate.

04:51The last time,

04:52just past the post,

04:53two or three passed the post.

04:55Vapit, there was a lot of noise

04:56that you have doctored,

04:57engineered the last 10, 12 seats

04:59just to get past the post, etc.

05:01And this is settled beyond doubt.

05:03Now, go back to my question in the morning.

05:05It doesn't look good.

05:07Ji.

05:07No, no.

05:08I'm going to go back to that

05:09development-led growth conversation

05:12because I think now that

05:13for the voting pattern to change

05:16from like the caste politics

05:18to development-led,

05:20performance-led voting,

05:23you know, I feel like

05:23going back to again what Mr. Saeed said,

05:26that infrastructure is very much required.

05:29I think that increases

05:30and changes aspirations of people.

05:32And I think that's where BJP

05:33kind of brings in its strong suit

05:35also in that double-engine

05:37Sarkar performance.

05:40And I think that's the game-changer here.

05:42Look at the vote share.

05:43Sorry, I'm interrupting.

05:44Just have a look at it.

05:4652% vote share.

05:47See, this is the NDA's best ever.

05:49The NDA has never gotten about 43-44%

05:52if my memory serves me right.

05:5452%, more than half the percent vote share

05:56the NDA has pulled

05:57because the cameos have also been fantastic.

06:00LJP, HAAM have all added

06:02along with the JDU and the BJP doing well.

06:05And look at the INDIA.

06:05There's a 15% gap between the two.

06:08It's basically a two-horse race.

06:10I mean, I don't think Jansuraj

06:11or any of the other third or fourth players

06:13matter in this election.

06:14It's a two-horse race.

06:15And if there's a 15% gap

06:16between the two alliances,

06:18then I think it's a runaway victory.

06:19And that's what we're seeing

06:20in the seats as well.

06:21There's a question in my mind

06:22about Tejasvi Yadav.

06:24Right.

06:24Yes, he's done better than the Congress.

06:25But the question is,

06:28does he offer anything

06:29beyond what his father gave him?

06:32And I suspect the answer to that is no.

06:33He was novelty last time.

06:35He's no longer a novelty.

06:38Clearly, the people and politics

06:39is not about the perfection,

06:40finding perfection,

06:41but it's about the half loaf, right?

06:43So does he offer anything

06:45that the people credibly believe

06:46will take them to a different level?

06:48Now, if he is not able to do that,

06:50my personal belief is that

06:52Tejasvi's vote share going forward

06:54is going to be tough to hold

06:55because there'll be other people

06:57nipping at his heels

06:58for that same M.Y. base.

06:59Same M.Y.

07:00But now the M.Y. factor itself

07:02changes to Myla and Yuva.

07:03Correct. Exactly.

07:04We're going to quote Sandeep Ji

07:05very aggressively.

07:07And I'm going to borrow one

07:08because he said,

07:09one, who's got the trust factor?

07:10Yes, unemployment is an issue.

07:11Who does a Bihar voter trust

07:13will solve this issue for us?

07:14The second one is the alliance chemistry.

07:16Now, this alliance chemistry

07:17is far more visible

07:18within the NDA

07:19than anybody else.

07:20We've got something else

07:21also to show you.

07:22Raul Shivshankar walks in.

07:23Good morning.

07:24You're walking on a good day

07:25and a good time.

07:26Well, the EVMs are not having

07:27such a great time, unfortunately,

07:29because we've already got

07:30the Congress stepping in

07:31and saying that,

07:32look, when you delete

07:33a large number of voters,

07:34et cetera, et cetera,

07:35there's going to be a problem.

07:36And of course,

07:37You saw the vote share, right?

07:38The EVMs, absolutely.

07:38You saw the vote share.

07:39Now, have a look

07:40at the YouTube numbers.

07:41We've got to flaunt it a little

07:43because when it swings one way,

07:44it swings one way.

07:45Just putting out these numbers

07:46as Raul walks in.

07:47See, 1,001,18,000

07:51concurrent views.

07:52So, from 83 to 1,18,000,

07:541,14,000.

07:55That's where the numbers are.

07:56Viewers, thank you very much.

07:58Thank you so much.

07:59So, you are seeing also in Simanchal

08:04in rows that have been made

08:07into seats that were actually

08:09our JD and Congress bastions.

08:11That tells you that substantially

08:13there is also this huge talk about,

08:16you see, constant Muslim bastion,

08:18this, that, the other.

08:19That's beginning to sort of waver too.

08:21And a lot of those are JDU seats.

08:22JDU didn't have much in Simanchal

08:24last time around.

08:25So, in Simanchal, the JDU seat.

08:26So, where is the Muslim vote going?

08:28Is it the Muslim vote?

08:30The polarization works both ways, right?

08:32That's right.

08:32There's a reverse polarization

08:33that happens as well.

08:34But, Zakhar, the turnouts in these seats

08:36in Simanchal were much, much higher.

08:3810, 12, 15% higher.

08:40That's correct.

08:41And then when you look at Bhojpur,

08:43have a look at Bhojpur.

08:44There are changes taking place in Bhojpur.

08:47There are changes taking place

08:49in Mithilanchal.

08:50So, clearly, obviously,

08:53there is a coalition

08:53that is coming through

08:55and a positive message

08:57is being rewarded.

08:59No, absolutely.

09:00Look, I've been saying this since morning.

09:03When the NDA

09:04and particularly the JDU

09:05is doing well across regions,

09:07then you know it's pulling its weight.

09:09It's going towards a closer

09:10to perhaps even a two-thirds

09:11sort of a situation.

09:13And if there's numbers old,

09:13they might actually get

09:14to a two-thirds majority.

09:16The BJP holding its own?

09:18Is it becoming the default party

09:20of choice in Bihar?

09:21Slowly and steadily?

09:23Is that what we're seeing?

09:24So, it's 75 to the JDU

09:26is now currently the higher party,

09:29the larger party in the alliance.

09:31The BJP is at 72.

09:32LJP at 14.

09:34So, that's 29 seats that he fought.

09:3514, he's leading in currently.

09:37But the JDU,

09:38and I keep pointing,

09:39they had 43 last time.

09:41This is a 50% strike rate.

09:42It's a 50% strike rate.

09:43Adding to the JDU turnout also,

09:45because remember,

09:46it really undercut the JDU

09:47in almost those many seats.

09:48The JDU had 43,

09:49up 32 from last time.

09:51I think, see,

09:52once you have like an alliance

09:54leading in two-thirds of the seats,

09:57and you have them 50% plus vote share,

10:00I think every region,

10:02sort of caste block,

10:03everything is going to be flattened.

10:05So, I don't think that

10:06is going to be any different.

10:08I think what seems to be happening

10:10in favor of the NDA

10:11is basically a combination

10:13of everything working together.

10:15So, it looks like at 10 a.m.,

10:17it looks like a perfection.

10:17So, you're saying that

10:18the Yadav vote has stuck to the RJD.

10:20Is that what you're saying?

10:21I don't think that could be the outcome

10:23when you're beginning to lose.

10:24All parties have serious social base.

10:28That's why they exist in society, right?

10:30So, Yadav and Muslims

10:31will stick to RJD.

10:33But at 50% vote share,

10:35there will be a chipping away

10:36of some Yadav votes

10:38also towards NDA, right?

10:39So, 80% Yadav may still vote for RJD.

10:42But when one sub-coalition

10:44is crossing 50% mark,

10:45then it's basically going to be

10:47gained across segments.

10:48You know, the incremental vote

10:50which the BJP has got,

10:52and I think here,

10:53BJP, I mean, the NDA has got,

10:55I think we must really take into account

10:57what the SIR has done.

10:59Because by eliminating

11:00at least the dead voters,

11:03you know, it's,

11:04you might think,

11:04but having fought elections,

11:06I can tell you

11:06how important that is.

11:08Because whoever has the might

11:10in the locality

11:11ensures that the dead

11:13come alive on election day.

11:14Especially in West Bengal.

11:15West Bengal is, of course,

11:16a classic example of that.

11:18But Bihar,

11:19you see, Bihar has moved away

11:20from violence

11:21to quiet manipulation.

11:24And here,

11:25I don't think that has been

11:26eliminated entirely.

11:27But at least what has happened is

11:29that here,

11:31there has been

11:32a far more level playing field

11:34which has been in existence.

11:35And that has resulted.

11:37So, Mr. Das Gupta,

11:38at least a 5%,

11:40if you discount the SIR,

11:43there's at least a 5%

11:45jump in turnout,

11:47which is clearly having an impact.

11:48Clearly, which has moved

11:49in favor of the BJP NDA.

11:52So this coalition

11:53has been better

11:53at effectively mobilizing

11:55its own voters.

11:56That's something that we can say.

11:57And is that on the back

11:58of a positive?

11:59That's what I'm saying.

11:59That's the pattern.

12:01From Delhi, Haryana, Maharashtra,

12:02this has been the pattern.

12:03That's the right.

12:04To mobilize

12:04every available supporter

12:06to turn up.

12:07BJP State Chief's

12:09first reactions

12:10coming through.

12:11Let's listen.

12:11This is the right.

12:13BJP is the state president

12:14is Vedas.

12:15Dilibji,

12:15which is the initial

12:28।

12:58Is the state BJP chief

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