- 3个月前
Four talented Red Bull–backed drivers are battling for only three Formula 1 seats in 2026 — meaning one of them will be left on the sidelines.
In this video, I unpack Red Bull’s complex F1 driver puzzle, covering everyone from Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson to the next-generation hopefuls Isack Hadjar and Arvid Lindblad.
With key decisions looming across Red Bull Racing, RB F1, and the Red Bull Junior Team, the stakes have never been higher.
Who keeps their spot, who gets promoted, and who’s forced to watch from the sidelines?
This could be Red Bull’s biggest driver shake-up in years.
In this video, I unpack Red Bull’s complex F1 driver puzzle, covering everyone from Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson to the next-generation hopefuls Isack Hadjar and Arvid Lindblad.
With key decisions looming across Red Bull Racing, RB F1, and the Red Bull Junior Team, the stakes have never been higher.
Who keeps their spot, who gets promoted, and who’s forced to watch from the sidelines?
This could be Red Bull’s biggest driver shake-up in years.
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00:00G'day,Red Bull has 5 drivers for 4 seats in 2026
00:04and with just 4 races to go this year
00:06a decision about which one dips out is not far away
00:12Here are the 5 drivers in line for a seat at Red Bull and VCarb next year
00:16Who gets what seats?
00:17Well that'll largely be determined by these two men
00:20Laurent Meckies and Helmut Marko
00:22They'll need to convince this man Oliver Mintzlaff
00:24who is the CEO of Red Bull in Austria
00:26Along with the two major Red Bull shareholders
00:28Chileum Yuvidea and Mark Mattershitz before the decision can be announced
00:32Straight up,Max is in obviously
00:34His average finishing position so far this year is 4.1
00:37Now he still has a slim chance of picking up his 5th World Drivers Championship
00:41I'll go into what it would take for him to win that later in this video
00:44But it's fair to say the team revolves around Max
00:47And since Laurent Meckies has come to the team
00:49There's been a marked turnaround
00:51Laurent is an engineer
00:52Max is a supreme driver and they work very well together
00:55So knowing that Max is secure
00:56Who is going to be the second driver?
00:58Of course you have to have a second driver
00:59Albeit if you are that second driver
01:01You're pretty much on a hiding to nothing
01:03Red Bull just destroys second drivers
01:06There's a list of them of course
01:07But there are four drivers in the running for that
01:09And the other two seats at VCar
01:11Let's start with Isaac Hadjar
01:12Laurent and Helmut both rate this young driver
01:15The team sees Isaac as Max's successor at some point
01:17When Max leaves
01:18After his round one disaster in Australia
01:21He's bounced back admirably
01:22His average finishing position this season is 11.6
01:25And at the moment he's loving driving at V-Cup
01:28He's even scored a podium
01:29But elevate him too early and you could ruin him
01:32Getting smashed by Max week after week takes its toll
01:35Mainly mentally
01:36As Checo said anyone in that car is doomed
01:39Even Lewis Hamilton
01:40Helmut Marko wants him in that seat
01:42Laurent Meckies
01:43He's hesitant
01:44Yes he wants the best two drivers in the team
01:46But he's mindful of what an early promotion might do to a young driver
01:50The team dropped Checo last year for Liam
01:52And then dropped him a couple of races into the 2025 season for Yuki
01:56And while Yuki's struggling
01:57There's no guarantee Isaac would do any better
02:00If the team puts him in that seat next year
02:02And he's destroyed by Max's dominance
02:05Which is a fairly high risk
02:06Then there's no one left to replace Max in 2027 or beyond
02:10If Max leaves
02:11A lot of the pundits are saying leave him in V-Cup for another year
02:14Let him find his feet and then transfer him to the senior team
02:18And at this point a reminder that my 2026 F1 calendar
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02:40But if you order now the book will be completed then
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02:44After this video head to the shop at KimEllman.com
02:47There's a link in the description below
02:50Let's talk about Arvid Lindblad
02:52Helmut wants him in V-Cup
02:54He's a big rap for the young British Swedish driver
02:57And if Helmut has his way he'll be in
02:58He performed well in Mexico in that FP1 test
03:01And at just 18 he'd be the youngest driver on the grid in 2026
03:05At the moment he competes for Campos Racing in F2
03:09But he's only seventh in the standings
03:10And there are two races to go
03:12He is 81 points shy of the top spot
03:14But he was the youngest ever driver to win an F2 race earlier this year
03:18And is part of the Red Bull junior team
03:20Red Bull like what they see in Arvid
03:22Then we have Yuki Tsunoda
03:24A veteran now
03:25His average finishing position this year 12.4
03:28And it's fair to say he struggled like everyone has in that second Red Bull seat
03:33But for Yuki he's got the might of Honda behind him
03:36And Honda has plenty of money
03:38And Red Bull needs Honda in 2026
03:40But aren't Red Bull making their own engines next year?
03:43Yes, along with Ford.
03:44And I'll get to that a little bit later in this video
03:46But there's an important consideration
03:47Red Bull needs Honda for their TPC program
03:50That's the testing of previous cars
03:52Because Red Bull doesn't own those engines
03:54Effectively they leased them
03:55And Red Bull needs Honda's people and expertise
03:59In order to run those cars
04:00And for that Red Bull needs to pay Honda millions per year
04:03Perhaps 10 plus million per year
04:05Honda's also the biggest Japanese car maker
04:08And they own and manage the Suzuka circuit
04:10Now from a marketing point of view
04:12The value of Yuki Tsunoda driving for Red Bull
04:16In Japan is astronomical
04:18So Honda is very keen to stump up a lot of money
04:20To make sure Yuki continues on with Red Bull
04:23Or as a second option V car
04:25And of course the other driver in the mix is Liam Lawson
04:28His average finishing position this year 12.9
04:32He has the least going for him
04:33He doesn't have the huge money of Honda behind him
04:36But he is dogged and certainly he's giving it all
04:39Now up until last week
04:40I thought Isaac Hedger had pretty much locked in that seat
04:43At Red Bull next year
04:44But now I'm hedging my bets
04:46If Helmut Marko doesn't have the power he thinks he has
04:49It may well be that Yuki stays in that seat
04:52Isaac remains at V carb
04:54And Arvid and Liam fight it out for that remaining seat
04:57Let's go back to Max
04:58Can he still win the championship?
05:00Yes he can
05:01If he won all of the remaining races
05:03And there are six of them four feature races and two sprints
05:06He would pick up an extra 116 points
05:09But that alone wouldn't be enough for him to guarantee winning the championship
05:13He'd need Lando's help
05:14Because if Lando finishes second in every one of those events
05:17Lando would still win the championship by six points
05:20And while almost all of the other drivers went back to Europe
05:23After the Mexico City race
05:24Max headed to Brazil the day after on his Dasso Falcon 8X
05:28Which he acquired earlier this year
05:30That's a flight of around nine hours
05:32Landed in Brasilia
05:33Which is the capital of Brazil on Monday
05:35And caught up with Kelly and the two girls
05:37Who'd arrived some days prior
05:39And remember last year in Brazil
05:40Max won this race
05:42And it was a surprise podium
05:43With Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly rounding out the top three
05:47And Brazil can certainly throw on some interesting weather
05:49And still on the subject of Red Bull
05:51What's Christian Horner up to I hear you cry
05:53Well he secured a monster payout of a hundred million dollars from Red Bull
05:56He settled the court case with his ex-PA
05:59Apparently shelling out three million pounds
06:01Or four million us to put an end to that matter
06:03And now he's just tending to his horses on his property
06:05And testing the waters with teams as a team principal
06:08Or even an investor
06:10Back when he was running Red Bull
06:11He had almost total control
06:13Now things have changed
06:14With Oliver Mintzlaff and the two major shareholders
06:17Needing to be consulted in big decisions
06:19Like the team's second driver
06:21So what would it take to keep Max at Red Bull beyond 2026
06:26Well a competitive car
06:28And a lot of that will hinge on Red Bull's new engine
06:30Of course they got rid of Honda
06:31And are now producing their own engines along with Ford
06:34And that deal came about after the Porsche Red Bull deal fell apart
06:37In the summer of 2022
06:39Ford was already looking to enter F1
06:41And because of those changes in regulations for 2026
06:44Red Bull needed Ford
06:46As much as Ford needed Red Bull
06:47Initially the deal was done based on support around the hybrid system
06:51But that's now grown to include aspects of both combustion
06:54And the electric power unit
06:55So will it be ready on time?
06:57Ford says yes
06:58It's been running for some time now
07:00And we're hitting all our internal metrics
07:02And if they get it right
07:03There'll be no need for Max to leave
07:05And if you're a Red Bull fan
07:06That will be music to your ears
07:08Of course we won't know how that engine stacks up
07:10Until possibly testing in Barcelona next year
07:13But that three-day event is closed to the media
07:17And they probably won't be going flat out
07:19Thereafter there are two three-day tests planned for Bahrain
07:22Once again I don't think they'll be pushing it to the limit there
07:25I think our first indicator will be on Saturday March 15th in Melbourne
07:29When all 22 cars take to the track for qualifying
07:33In closing if Helmut Marko has the power he thinks he has
07:36I think we'll see Isaac next to Max next year
07:38And Arvid Lindblad at VCar
07:40If he doesn't I'm betting that Arvid will replace Liam Lawson at VCar
07:45And the other two stay the same
07:46Now before I go two things
07:47You can find a whole host of Christmas gifts from the shop at KimEllman.com
07:51And for those of you not yet subscribed
07:53I'd welcome you to remedy that situation by clicking a simple button
07:57And for everybody else please like the video
08:00Thanks for watching and stay passionate
08:08F**k off
08:11No, that's not right.
08:17You know
08:37I think I have to, as you can see there's probably…
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