CFL Playoffs Preview 2025: East & West Semi-Finals Breakdown

Peter Klein

The CFL playoffs are here! 🏈 In this breakdown, 3DownNation's Peter Klein previews both the East and West semi-finals and digs into the storylines, matchups, X-factors, and who’s most likely to advance.  What you’ll discover: 🏈 East Semi-Final: Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Montreal Alouettes — why Montreal’s QB (Davis Alexander) could carry them, and why Winnipeg’s protection and turnover issues loom large.  🏈 West Semi-Final: Calgary Stampeders at BC Lions — how Calgary’s drop-off without Florian Aumalade shifts the dynamics, and why BC’s Nathan Rourke might take over.  🏈 Key stats & playoff context: teams crossing divisions, home-field implications, and what these games mean for the road to the Grey Cup.   Post your playoff predictions in the comments, smash that subscribe button, and hit the bell — let’s build this subscriber base together!  📌 Subscribe to Couch Potato Diary for weekly CFL breakdowns, betting best-bets, and playoff content.  ✍️ For the full breakdown of each game, check out Peter's Best Bets story for 3DN: https://3downnation.com/2025/10/31/3downnation-cfl-east-west-semi-final-predictions-best-bets-for-bombers-at-alouettes-stampeders-at-lions/  💬 Comment below: Which team advances from each matchup? East: Montreal or Winnipeg? West: BC or Calgary? Let’s hear your takes!  #CFL #CFLPlayoffs #CFL2025 #CanadianFootballLeague #WinnipegBlueBombers #MontrealAlouettes #CalgaryStampeders #BCLions #GreyCup  🎧 Listen on: Apple https://apple.co/49NGm2L | Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/3QgazeHcSKSteZbBIubcuM?si=icY7NEBvT7yZadv_JFlT6Q  💬 Follow for live breakdowns: https://x.com/primetimeklein | https://www.twitch.tv/primetimepk  | https://kick.com/primetimepk  🔗 Support the Show:   - Tip Jar: https://streamelements.com/couchpotatodiary/tip (fuels more content!)   - Partners: C of Dead http://cofdead403.ca/ | Swift Energy https://www.swiftenergy.gg/?ref=mriusnqm PROMO CODE: PKPrimetime for 25% Off!

Transcript

00:00The playoffs are here in the CFL, so what can we expect from the two postseason games this week?

00:06Let's break it down.

00:16It is playoff time in the Canadian Football League. There is no better time than playoffs

00:22in football. And in the CFL, it's just, it's something different, man. So very excited that

00:28CFL playoffs are here. I think it's going to be, I think it's going to be a really, really good

00:35weekend in the Canadian Football League with a couple of pretty good games. I do have my best

00:42bets piece. It doesn't look like it has been posted just yet, but the best bets will be up on three

00:48down later this week. So make sure you check that out. So because of that, I'm not going to give

00:51every pick that I gave there, but let's break the two games down. We start in the East where the

00:55Winnipeg Blue Bombers, who when there's only eight teams, they're actually an East Division team,

00:59but they now cross over into that to take on Montreal. When you look at the stats this year,

01:04it is a little bit misleading on both sides because both teams have dealt with injuries and

01:08inconsistency all season long. But Montreal, they get banged up in that last game, but for the most

01:14part, Montreal is getting healthier and specifically a quarterback with Davis Alexander, who hasn't lost

01:19a game as a starter this season. So I'm kind of trusting that. I like, I just, I give the check

01:26mark there to Montreal against Winnipeg at quarterback. I think Davis Alexander getting back,

01:31getting healthy, getting into that rhythm the last couple of weeks of the season helps them out

01:34immensely. I'll have the note in the three down, but I believe it's two of his three games. He's

01:39gone for over 300 yards passing and doesn't have an interception yet in that game or in that time.

01:43So really good spot for him to, to kind of thrive here against the Winnipeg defense that

01:49the numbers I think look better than it has actually looked on the field this year, but they

01:55are a decent unit, but not one that I think should give Alexander or Philpott a whole lot of trouble

02:00this week for Montreal. On the Winnipeg side, Zach Caleros, they have had a very difficult time

02:05keeping him healthy and we'll get to that in a second, but he hasn't looked good. Even in the times

02:09where he's been healthy, he hasn't looked all that effective this year. And this Montreal

02:13defense, you've been able to pass on him a little bit, but I think now playoff time,

02:18they are again, for the most part healthy. And I don't love the matchup. The big X factor

02:24in this game is going to be Brady Oliveira. I know I'm saying the X factor and then going

02:28on to list a former most outstanding player. Yeah. But Oliveira had in the game that mattered

02:34between these two teams, he had 137 yards and a touchdown against Montreal. And if he has another

02:41big day, that really does open up a lot of things offensively that Winnipeg can do because Montreal

02:47has struggled against the run at times this season. So Oliveira is in for, I think, a very good day

02:54for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. Will it be enough though? Remains to be seen. The two big things that

03:00I'm focusing on in this game though. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have really struggled protecting Zach

03:08Caleros this season. They are one of the leaders in giving up sacks in the Canadian Football League

03:15all year. And the times where they didn't are times where they threw the ball eight times. So

03:21I have a real concern about that because Montreal's pass rush, they disguise it really well. And they are

03:28very aggressive with that. And so I could see them giving Caleros all kinds of problems in this game

03:34because of the creativity that they have and the relentless nature of that passing, of that pass

03:40rush against an offensive line that just struggles. They just do. The other one is Winnipeg struggles

03:45with turnovers and Montreal is a ball hawking defense. Now, I think part of that is the offensive

03:49line has struggles. And so Caleros has a few moments and just has to get the ball away. But

03:54Montreal forces a lot of those. They disguise coverages very well. And it's just, it's a bad

04:01matchup, I think, for Winnipeg. So when you look at kind of a side-by-side of a lot of the kind of

04:06traditional stats, it looks relatively even. But you watch the games on the field, I don't think it's

04:11close. And you look at some of the other bigger ones to look at, protecting the quarterback,

04:16protecting the football, it's all Montreal. So because of that, I like the Alouettes in this spot.

04:20There's a couple other plays I suggest in the best bets on three downs. So check that out there

04:24later this week or follow me on social media and I'll post the link when it gets posted.

04:29On to the West Final, where, semi-final, sorry, where it'll be Calgary against the BC Lions.

04:35It's interesting how these two teams have been ships passing in the night. Calgary gets off to

04:38this amazing start to the season, absolutely dominant. And they gave everyone so many problems.

04:45Like just, the Riders finished the season as the best team in the Canadian Football League, and Calgary

04:50dominated them. Completely. Both lines of scrimmage absolutely dominated them. While BC, Rorick gets

04:58hurt. And then the offensive line is bad. The defense can't stop anything. And they just can't really get

05:03into that rhythm. But everything changed for Calgary when Florian Arumelade goes down with the injury.

05:09Where BC, I don't know if there was a player ad or anything that kind of flipped that switch.

05:15It's just, they, like Rorick has been superman. He has been unbelievable this year. But Calgary has

05:21fallen off as BC has gotten better. That allowed the Lions to pass the stamps for second in the West.

05:26Which I, as the season was going on, didn't think that would be possible. But now it is. And now

05:33Calgary has to go into BC to take on this Lions squad. And look, I get Calgary has addressed a couple

05:38of things on defense. And I get that they have gotten healthier. But without Arumelade, it has been

05:43night and day. I don't like to give all the stats I give in the three-down piece. But this one,

05:48I can't not. With Arumelade in the lineup, Calgary played 11 games. They went 8-3 and gave up an

05:56average of 19.4 points per game. You stretch that out over the whole season, it's the best defense

06:01in the Canadian Football League. Without Arumelade, the stamps went 3-4. And that's because they won

06:06their last three. And they gave up 28.8 points per game. And that number is only as low as it is

06:12because they played an Edmonton team that was eliminated and a Toronto team that had Jake

06:17Daigie as their quarterback. So this could be a lot worse. That 28.8 would be the worst of teams

06:24that made the playoffs in the Canadian Football League this season. So that guy, there are other

06:29pieces that are getting healthier. They're coming back. They made some trades to try to help out on the

06:33defensive front as well. But Arumelade is kind of a one-of-one and a real game-breaker on the

06:37defensive side. If he is not there and he's not, I just don't think they'll be able to get the,

06:43they'll be able to put a rush on Nathan Rorick. But finishing those rushes is a different story.

06:48I think Rorick still has a big game. I saw the prop. He's at, the number's 340 for Rorick. I'm not

06:54going to go that high. That's insane. But he's going to have a good day. And like Vernon Adams,

06:58the numbers don't do justice what he has meant to this football team. But it also hasn't been great

07:05at various different points. Numbers-wise, as the season goes on, he has been awesome.

07:10Any Calgary troubles have not been because of him. It's the defense that has had a bit of an issue

07:14here. He has had one good game against his former team, one not good game against his former team.

07:19He's going to need to be excellent in this game. BC, their numbers against the pass are actually

07:25all right. But I do think you can kind of get to them a little bit. But he has to kind of match

07:30what Nathan Rorick can do. But again, like the East semifinal, this one could come down to the

07:35run game as well. Diedrich Mills has had a couple of very good games running the football against BC.

07:41The first one that kind of went away from him because they were down by 30. But he averaged like

07:4512 yards a carry in the first matchup. He ends up with, it's around 150 yards in the two games and a

07:50couple of touchdowns. And again, both of those they were trailing in. So they kind of abandoned

07:53the run. But he is someone where if they can get that going early, get Vernon Adams into some easy

07:59second down situations and sustain some drives. I think you can kind of dribble the air out of the

08:03ball if you're Calgary a little bit and kind of limit the amount of time that Rorick has to work

08:10his magic for this BC team. The other big matchup is going to be Calgary secondary. BC is the best in

08:17the league at coming up with big plays down the field. No one had more completions of 20 yards or

08:23more depth of target than Rorick this season. And Calgary's defense was one of the best in the

08:29league at limiting those. So it is a battle of the Titans in that spot. This is going to be a very

08:34fun matchup. I don't think it's going to be like their playoff game a couple of years ago where it

08:37was clearly BC had the advantage. But I do think the Lions, like just Rorick is a different animal

08:42than anyone you're going to be dealing with right now. And I think he alone gets them the win. So I

08:47like Rorick and the Lions to advance to Regina for the West Final. What are your Grey Cup thoughts

08:53and playoff predictions here in the CFL? Let me know in the chat or in the comment section below.

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