00:00Speaking, the stats are telling us that Sunderland Start is sustainable.
00:03So let me just break that down a little bit from you.
00:05So all these stats are from Yscout.
00:08So they've conceded six goals from 7.99 expected goals.
00:12Normally what happens is over the course of the season is that the number of goals you concede balances out against your extra you concede and vice versa.
00:19That's why it's a statistic, which whether you like it or know that clubs are using more and more often,
00:23because over the course of the season, it's one of the best indicators for how many goals you'll score and concede.
00:28So that suggests that Sunderland are over-performing slightly defensively.
00:31Part of that is obviously rubbing roughs and what their defenders are doing, but not massively.
00:34So even if there is a small correction over the course of the season,
00:37it doesn't mean Sunderland are going to concede, start conceding those goals if they keep playing like this.
00:41That's a positive.
00:42And they're also slightly over-performing their XG, but not massively.
00:45So they've got seven goals from 6.93 XG.
00:47So that suggests that the goals they score and the goals they concede are a fair reflection of their performances.
00:53And that means that that would suggest that their form is fairly sustainable.
00:55So if we look at Wisecout's predicted table, where it essentially takes that XG and XG conceded data and spits out a predicted table, if you like,
01:06which is kind of based on performance level, that puts Sunderland in 13th.
01:09So again, that would suggest that Sunderland are a really competitive team, who maybe have slightly over-performed in terms of results they've got in the opening weeks, but not by much.
01:17All this data is telling us that Sunderland has a really, really competitive side, a defensive side first and foremost, but a competitive one and a high-perform one at the level.
01:25So I think, obviously, there's no doubt that the fixture list has been relatively kind for Sunderland.
01:31I've said loads of times that that shouldn't be used as a criticism of Sunderland because every Premier League game is tough.
01:37One of the key reasons why the promoted sides in the last couple of years struggled so much is because they weren't able to take points off the sort of lower mid-table teams, which Sunderland have already done.
01:46But having said that, they have only played two teams currently in the top 10, one of them, which is, of course, Man United, who are in 10th now after their win over Sunderland, compare that at Burnley, who've played four teams currently inside the top 10.
01:57So there is a little bit of a discrepancy there.
01:59And I think when you throw in the African Cup of Nations as well, when there's some key players are going to leave, I think that it's going to be difficult for Sunderland to maintain, particularly these defensive numbers when they come up against stronger teams.
02:09I think that's obvious.
02:10So I still think all the evidence is that this is going to be a difficult season and that there are going to be moments where, or there might be little runs of games where Sunderland struggle a little bit and they're not able to maintain the strong defensive kind of shape and structure and output.
02:23But I think overall the signs are pretty encouraging here.
02:26I think that what the stats are telling us is that Sunderland are where they are pretty much on merit and that the club and the coaching staff have done an excellent job of bringing a team together that's really capable of performing physically and technically at this level.
02:40More impressive than that is the stuff that you can't really read in the day, which is the resilience of the side, the togetherness that is clearly there and has carried on from last season, despite all those signings, which is why they're able to dig in and get a win against Nottingham Forest.
02:52It's why they're able to come back later on and beat Brentford at home.
02:55So I think there's absolutely loads to be positive about.
Be the first to comment