Investors Nervous — What’s Coming? - video Dailymotion

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Investors are on edge as market signals flash warning signs. What’s behind the sudden fear — and is this just the beginning?  Don’t ignore these red flags.  #MarketCrash  #StockMarket  #BreakingNews  #WallStreet  #Investors  #Finance  #USMarkets  #Economy  Follow for real-time market alerts.

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00:00The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

00:01The second biggest bank collapse in U.S. history.

00:04Okay, so we've all heard about the big bank crash that happened a few weeks ago.

00:08A rough week for the banking industry.

00:10As a storm of events came together, all of us kind of freaked out.

00:13And we ran to the banks to take our money out.

00:15That was scary.

00:16But the scariest part is that that may be just the beginning.

00:20You think the Silicon Valley Bank was something?

00:23Nothing compared to what's going to happen.

00:24It's going to be at least as bad as 08-09.

00:27And the reason for what's coming that no one is talking about is commercial real estate.

00:32In this video, we're going to explain what may cause the next crash and what it means for me and you.

00:37And who will sadly be taking massive losses.

00:40The people who want too much money should take losses.

00:43Commercial real estate.

00:44What is it?

00:45Basically, property used for business purposes rather than living.

00:48Think offices, industrial units, rentals, not your apartment.

00:52And something dangerous lies in wait there.

00:55Why?

00:55Well, it all started with this guy.

00:57Meet Jerome Powell, leader of the Fed.

00:59The Fed basically controls the cost of money, aka how much inflation or prices go up each year.

01:05And how much interest rates or the cost for borrowing money also goes up each year.

01:11The Fed started raising interest rates aggressively because inflation, it's almost at all-time highs.

01:17And high inflation is bad.

01:20I mean, really bad.

01:21So when rates go up, the idea is it tamps down on spending.

01:26And because people spend less, thus theoretically inflation comes down.

01:30Ain't got no money to spend.

01:32But there are side effects.

01:34Bad ones.

01:35Like asset prices, aka the cost of hard things like real estate, fall faster than a girl

01:42at Coachella when she sees a VIP badge.

01:44VIP.

01:45A bunch of smart minds in Wall Street think commercial real estate could fall that fast.

01:50As much as 40%.

01:52That means that if you had a dollar invested, you now only have 60 cents overnight.

01:58And that might be why small and medium banks are essentially running out of money.

02:02Hundreds of banks are failing their deposit minimums for the 19th straight week in a row.

02:07So obviously, people like me and you think, let's go to the big banks because the government

02:12might actually make them safe.

02:14So while Jerome Powell of the Fed says this, the winner is actually this guy.

02:19I won.

02:20While we're so worried about the markets that we literally only want to put in banks that

02:25the government could bail out, the market actually gets more risky.

02:28Because now, fewer banks hold all the cash.

02:32And JP Morgan is one of the winners.

02:34Do the words too big to fail ring a bell?

02:36I'm too big to fail, Spence.

02:38What's happened?

02:39The money spigot has shut off.

02:41Money then floods to safety.

02:42And more interest rate loan extensions from big banks are mandated.

02:47You might say, that's not that big of a deal.

02:48We still have 60%.

02:50In 2008, the housing market fell 20%.

02:53So 2023 to 2025 could be two times as bad as 2008.

02:59But why is this important?

03:00And how big is this?

03:02Commercial real estate makes startup bank loans, aka SVB, look like a gnat.

03:06Biting at a giant.

03:07Commercial real estate is a $20 trillion sector globally, with more than a trillion dollar

03:12market in the U.S.

03:14We're talking about giant size losses.

03:17But what's that mean for us, the normal people?

03:19Well, right before our eyes, the perfect storm is playing out again.

03:23God damn it.

03:24Huge market, 70% to 80% of commercial real estate loans come from small and medium banks.

03:30The same ones experiencing those runs.

03:33The extra hard problem with that is commercial real estate loans, not liquid, aka easy to sell.

03:38If these loans start getting marked down to 40%, you have a mass liquidation event, or

03:44a bunch of people going bankrupt.

03:46And a bunch of the smart guys all over the world think that's going to happen sooner than

03:50we're ready for it.

03:52So what happens when that fall begins?

03:54There's always somebody holding the bag.

03:56Let's call them the bag man.

03:58So who owns all these loans in commercial real estate?

04:01Two words, shadow banks.

04:03Shadow banks are basically entities that do bank-like activities, aka lending, but they

04:09take place outside of the traditional banking sector.

04:12Shadow banks, many say, are what caused the 2008 crisis.

04:15And the biggest one in the world, BlackRock, is holding most of the commercial debt.

04:20The cracks are beginning to show.

04:21BlackRock and Blackstone just stopped people from taking money out of their commercial loan

04:26funds.

04:27No soup for you.

04:28No more soup for you.

04:29But maybe we don't care about BlackRock or Blackstone going broke.

04:33People gotta have losses if they take risk, right?

04:36But what if I told you they don't own the bag, you do?

04:39You see, we did a bunch of research, and it turns out that we all invest in commercial real

04:43estate, even though we don't realize it.

04:45Where?

04:46Stocks, bonds, mutual funds, pension funds.

04:49And who owns the pension funds and mutual funds?

04:52America.

04:52Look at the top 10 holders of BlackRock funds.

04:55Vanguard?

04:56I actually used to work there.

04:57SSGA?

04:58Used to work there too.

04:59Could be like Taylor Swift.

05:00Am I the problem now?

05:01But who else?

05:02Charles Schwab, Morgan Stanley.

05:04Those are all you and me.

05:06So if there is a crisis in the shadow banking system due to commercial real estate loans,

05:10you could be the one left holding the bag.

05:12And this is the house of cards no one tells us about.

05:14There is a thing in finance called systemic risk.

05:17A fancy word meaning a risk so big it could take down the whole system.

05:21Think of it like cancer.

05:23Cancer in your system can kill you.

05:25So you read all the labels to make sure you know what goes into your body.

05:28But in this case, the banks didn't give us a warning label.

05:30So why does this all happen so quickly?

05:33It all started from one thing, the pandemic.

05:36Basically, the pandemic accelerated work from home.

05:38In 2018, less than 6% of people worked remote.

05:42Now, 26% do.

05:44And guess what?

05:4566% of people now work at least some time remote.

05:48What does that mean?

05:49It means vacancy, no tenants, empty properties all around.

05:54Walk through any retail store.

05:56Go to a shopping mall.

05:57Horrifying.

05:58Walk across a warehouse district.

06:00All across the country, you see vacancy sign after vacancy sign after vacancy sign.

06:04Silently, these assets are that canary in the coal mine with every single for rent or sales sign sounding the alarm.

06:11But why don't we just turn all of these into condos and Amazon warehouses?

06:15Because it's expensive as shit.

06:16You've never been inside an office tower and thought, man, it's so cozy.

06:19I wish I could live here.

06:20So real estate has nowhere to go but vacant.

06:23And it's happening fast.

06:25September 15th of 2008.

06:27The day Lehman Brothers fell and the full recession began.

06:30Let's talk about the speed with which we are watching this market deteriorate.

06:33Because we're now down 43%.

06:36What in the world is happening on Wall Street?

06:38I remember at Goldman Sachs watching the TV screen fill with stunned employees carrying cardboard boxes amidst a backdrop of huge towers.

06:47What will be the date of this crisis?

06:49Well, since the Feds hiked interest rates, thus hiking mortgage rates and putting a freeze on the market,

06:56that same thing is happening to commercial real estate.

06:58The entire sector is facing a refinancing wall where their loans of $2.9 trillion are set to come due by 2024 to 2025.

07:07They're not going to be able to pay up.

07:09They only have 60 cents on every dollar.

07:11And so we don't have long.

07:12The time is ticking.

07:14Borrowers are going to go under.

07:15It's just a question of who is the next Lehman Brothers to fall?

07:19What does that mean for me and you?

07:21Watch for the signs.

07:22More failures in shadow banks.

07:24More lockups where people can't get their money out.

07:26More sales of big office buildings for 40% discounts.

07:30We better buckle up because this market is going to make an episode of Succession look boring.

Investors Nervous — What’s Coming?

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