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The promise of globalization is fading. This special report, "US-China: A New Cold War?", explores the tense standoff fundamentally reordering the international landscape. We're witnessing a palpable chill and a "Great Decoupling" – a very real splintering of the global economic fabric.

From early 18th-century maritime trade to ideological deep freezes post-1949, and then the "Ping-Pong Diplomacy" paving the way for Nixon's 1972 visit, the US-China relationship has cycled through friction and cooperation. China's 2001 WTO entry promised "Chimerica" and unprecedented economic integration.

However, cracks emerged: the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, growing intellectual property theft, and manufacturing job migration fueling Western disillusionment. Now, in "Act III," the "New Cold War" feels increasingly real, marked by China's rapid military modernization, assertive global posture, and a fundamental ideological clash.

Friction manifests across volatile flashpoints: Trump's trade wars, expanded by the Biden administration with tariffs on Chinese EVs and solar panels, are escalating. The critical "Chip War" for tech supremacy sees the U.S. restricting China's access to advanced semiconductors and AI, pushing Beijing towards self-sufficiency. Taiwan remains arguably the most dangerous geopolitical tinderbox.

The "Great Decoupling" is visible as companies "de-risk" supply chains, adopting a "China plus one" strategy, diverting investment to Mexico or Vietnam. U.S. foreign direct investment into China shrinks, reflecting American capital's apprehensive stance.

Expect more tariff escalation and an intensifying tech race, potentially dividing the world into economic blocs. The IMF warns a full decoupling could cost a staggering 7% of global GDP. Paradoxically, cooperation remains vital on global problems like climate change and future pandemics. Can these titans navigate "competitive coexistence" without plunging the world into greater volatility? This special report unpacks the question defining our collective future.

--------------------------The Thought Collective------------------------------

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Transcript
00:00The Thought Collective
00:01Welcome to The Thought Collective. I am Suzanne Williams.
00:11Today's episode, U.S.-China, a new Cold War?
00:15Globalization's promise of an interconnected world feels quaint.
00:19We're witnessing a tense, almost existential standoff between the U.S. and China,
00:23fundamentally reordering our international landscape.
00:26Many label this a new Cold War, a contentious term, yet it undeniably describes a palpable chill
00:32and a great decoupling, a very real splintering of the global economic fabric, pulling apart
00:37intricate threads woven over decades. This complex relationship began in the 18th century with early
00:42maritime trade, driven by American merchants seeking Chinese goods. After a period of open-door
00:48economic interest, 1949 brought an ideological deep freeze with Mao's communists, leading to
00:54decades of non-recognition and direct clashes in the Korean War. Yet, by the early 70s,
00:59shared strategic interests, the U.S. mired in Vietnam, China wary of the Soviets, led to ping-pong
01:05diplomacy, and Nixon's historic 1972 visit. Full diplomatic ties followed, and China's 2001 WTO
01:12entry ushered in an era of chimerica, promising unprecedented economic integration. But cracks
01:18emerged. The 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, growing intellectual property theft, manufacturing job
01:24migration, fueling Western disillusionment, and unfulfilled political liberalization in China.
01:30Now in Act III, the new Cold War feels increasingly real. Despite continued economic interdependence,
01:36China's rapid military modernization, assertive global posture, and fundamental ideological clash
01:42provide undeniable evidence. Friction manifests across volatile flashpoints. Trump's trade wars,
01:48expanded by the Biden administration with tariffs on Chinese EVs and solar panels, are escalating.
01:53The critical chip war for tech supremacy sees the U.S. restricting China's access to advanced
01:59semiconductors and AI, pushing Beijing towards desperate self-sufficiency. Taiwan remains arguably
02:05the most dangerous geopolitical tinderbox. The great decoupling is visible. Companies de-risk supply
02:12chains, adopting a China plus one strategy, diverting investment to Mexico or Vietnam.
02:18U.S., foreign direct investment into China shrinks, reflecting American capital's apprehensive stance.
02:24Expect more tariff escalation, an intensifying tech race, and a world divided into economic blocks.
02:30The IMF warns a full decoupling could cost a staggering 7% of global GDP. Paradoxically,
02:37cooperation remains vital on global problems like climate change and future pandemics.
02:42The road ahead is fragmented and uncertain. Can these titans navigate competitive coexistence
02:47without plunging the world into greater volatility? That question defines our collective future.
02:52The Thought Collective
02:53First of the
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