00:00PA Derby time. Scott, let's start things out with the one. So Sandy coming off of a runner up effort. She was in the he was in the curling last time out. It's kind of a weird race from him because he was up close early. Then he dropped back and you sort of looked like he was done.
00:13Then he came on again. Not really sure how strong the race is because the horse who finished third in there is a quirky horse who then didn't really run well next time out against better. Chancellor McPatrick is a horse who hasn't really stepped forward all that much as a three year old. This year was better and more precocious at two. Wasn't really sure what to do with. So Sandy.
00:33Yeah, it's a tough call because he is a horse that it looks like, you know, they didn't think all that much of at first, based on the little amount of money they took in Kentucky for a bar and Sheree DeVoe that takes a ton of money, but has steadily moved forward since adding blinkers and since getting more ground. I'm a little bit worried about his trip in here and I don't think he's quite good enough, but I can see a case for him underneath.
00:54Altebelli just looks like a big long shot in here. I think he's overmatched.
00:57Yeah, the only thing he could maybe make a factor and as he is a sprinter that showed speed going shorter, he could be a factor early, but a lot of times these horses just are outclassed and we don't don't get a call.
01:08If he does show some speed early, it probably hinders a chance of a horse like magnitude and man, it's really crazy how the perception on this horse kind of flipped in just like days because going into the Travers, he was this wise guy. We don't know much about him horse. How good is he? And then he doesn't really run all that well in the Travers.
01:25We're watching his win, his easy victory in the Iowa Derby. And now all of a sudden, we just don't really know how good he is, who he really is, but you'll probably get a much better price in here than you were getting last time if you played him in the Travers.
01:38Yeah, my problem with him is both of his big wins are kind of aided. One, the race we're seeing now, the Iowa Derby, just facing way lesser competition, loose on the lead as the fastest horse.
01:49And then two, three back in the Risen Star when he got the huge number before going on the bench, he got a very much a track aided win that day when they aggressively rode the horse to get to the front end and ride the rail.
02:01And he did just that and pulled away. I'm against magnitude here.
02:04Yeah, I just didn't like the way he was running a lot of that race either. Who cares if he gets beat by sovereignty, but he just he was done early and Bracket Buster just took it to him.
02:13We move to David of Athens, who is a lightly raced horse with some upside Scott. If you're just looking at his last win, that was a good one.
02:20But he showed some ability earlier in his career in his first two starts with some trouble and even breaking his maiden first time out of the box.
02:27And he does come out of a group where he beat two next out winners. One of them came back and won a race with a 92 speed figure, a buyer that we use.
02:36And so if you're wondering how strong the race he won, seems like it was pretty good.
02:40He's done nothing wrong thus far. He beat a live group, a 22 to one on debut at Keeneland, went to the bench and then had a very much less than ideal voyage off the layoff and then came back with a dominant win at Ellis.
02:53He's going to have to figure out the right way to work out a trip. David of Athens is what I found out his name is.
02:59And I think he's got a big shot to be a factor here at a big price.
03:03Happily Delusional is one of my favorite names for a horse, Scott, because that reminds me of most of us horse players.
03:08This guy was fourth most recently in the Smarty Jones, but he just feels like he's in a little tough here.
03:13I would have to agree. One for 11 in his career, five seconds, and those have come all against lesser competition.
03:19Goal oriented is grade one placed. He's the Bob Baffert charge in here.
03:23Lightly raced with upside. He was third in the grade one Haskell right behind Gosker in the last two races.
03:29He's been right behind Gosker, but he did show a nice step forward and improved in the Haskell.
03:35I just wonder how short a price he is, and the Baffert runners generally take a lot of money.
03:40You know, it wouldn't shock me to see him win, Scott, but I'm kind of looking at other horses in here on the top part.
03:45If I saw less speed, I think maybe they would ride him more aggressively.
03:49It's IRAD jumping aboard, but there's a bunch of speed in here.
03:52I think he, at his price, he's an underlay.
03:54We move to Big Trez, who was a horse that was kind of an enigma for me going into the Ellis Park Derby,
04:00because he didn't really fire all that well in the Indiana Derby.
04:03You were wondering if it was a distance concern with him.
04:06He's been a better horse going a little bit shorter.
04:09Now they stretch back out coming in this mile in the 16th race,
04:13and I think they take a swing because he was so impressive last time out, Scott.
04:18He's one of those trickier horses.
04:19Like, if he is in that 8-ish to 1 range, that's probably where he should be in a field like this,
04:24and he is sort of like an X-factor wild card to me.
04:27Yeah, highly regarded.
04:28He's bred to get two turns, but he's been underwhelming when he's taken on the top level of competition,
04:33going two turns, which is just once the Indiana Derby.
04:37Baeza is up next, and you look at what he's been doing recently.
04:40You can't knock anything.
04:42You know, he was behind journalism in the Santa Anita Derby,
04:46then behind sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby, in the Belmont, and in the Jim Dandy,
04:49and no journalism and no sovereignty in here.
04:52So what he's been doing based on speed figures and how close he's been able to be to those horses
04:58who kind of dominated a lot of the others in here,
05:01I mean, I obviously think he's the measuring stick horse to beat.
05:04I do wonder, Scott, though, with this being a different role for him,
05:07he's been the horse that you wanted to bet the last few times, kind of the horse that's sneaky.
05:13Now he's going to be the favorite, and I wonder if he's the type of horse you maybe are trying,
05:17I should try to beat on the win end with just his lone victory.
05:21I still think he's hands down the horse to beat.
05:24Yeah, I get why you're coming in wanting to consider taking a shot against him,
05:28but he's going to be at the best trip he's gotten in a while, in my opinion, against lesser competition.
05:32I think he's the clear one to beat.
05:34Gosker's just solid right now, Scott.
05:36I mean, you can't knock anything he's done.
05:38He just puts himself in the race.
05:40He keeps getting a little bit better.
05:41So the good performance from him most recently,
05:44and I just don't have very many knocks on what we've seen from Gosker as we,
05:50I think we're watching the Baeza replay from there when he was facing sovereignty.
05:54He was down on the inside.
05:55What do you do with Gosker here?
05:57Gosker is a horse that's on the rise.
05:59I think he might go off second choice in here.
06:01Not a lot to knock about him.
06:02He did kind of work evenly with his stable mate, who I like as well.
06:06He's amongst those that have a real big chance if Baeza is to lose.
06:09Allowing the B Grazzi.
06:12Allowing the B Grazzi.
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