- 6 weeks ago
A softer stance from the US Federal Reserve and the possibility of reduced reciprocal tariffs have lifted investor mood. The big question now: are these triggers enough to set off a sustained rally in Indian markets?
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00:00Good afternoon and welcome to Market Closing on our brand new collab show
00:29between Business Today and India Today Television. It's 3 p.m. and we are here to get you all the
00:33market closing action. First up, let's take a look at what's hot in the corporate and financial space.
00:45Stock markets welcome the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates. Both the Nifty
00:49and the Sensex are trading higher. Most of the sectoral indices are also in the positive terrain.
00:54Auto's infrastructure among those in the red. However, we've also seen gold and silver see
00:59slight profit booking after the recent rally.
01:09Finance Minister Nirmala Sitaraman's definitive message to the industry. Do not hesitate in
01:14investing and expanding capacity. In an answer to a query by the chairman of Tata Sons, the
01:20finance minister has underlined the prime minister's commitment to reforms and ease of doing business.
01:29European Union's a big lesson to Donald Trump as it inches closer to a trade deal with India.
01:35EU says it has kept talks on sticky issues like agricultural aside. We've also looked at progress
01:42on other fronts. Crude oil deals with Russia also emerge as a big stumbling block.
01:50A new day and a new deadline for Noida airport inauguration is now planned on 30th of October,
01:57but operations will only start in December of 2025. Minister says flights to 10 major cities
02:03in the first phase will be seen, but big focus on cargo operations as well.
02:08The country's largest car maker, Maruti Suzuki, has announced big price cuts across its entire range
02:17of vehicles. Largest savings due to GST rate cuts on the smallest cars will be seen.
02:23New prices are effective. 22nd of September, the first day of Navaratri.
02:27Let's straightaway talk about the markets in the last half an hour of trade. Remember viewers,
02:41we've inched higher at 25,433 now. A sharp spike has taken place over the last few minutes in trade
02:49and this is largely on the back of news flows that you just heard and you know saw the chief economic
02:56advisor Anand Nageshwaran talking about that there is hope that the trade talks are on and there is
03:02also hope that on the reciprocal tariff front, India could be hoping for sharp reduction on the
03:08front as well. And that's the first government reaction that we are actually looking at with respect
03:14to the tariffs front. And that's something that is really leading to this sharp momentum in the
03:18markets right now. Let's actually look at what's happening across the board. We have pharma and the
03:23IT indices. Remember, these are the two export oriented sectors that are actually hovering the
03:28highest in trade. You're actually looking at a one and a half percent uptick on the pharma index right
03:33now. And the IT index is holding about eight tenths percent up. Financial services, private banks,
03:38FMCG also up and about in trade. Even the broader markets, the mid caps and the small cap indices,
03:44they're up three tenths percent higher in the move today as well. Autos and consumer durables have
03:50also seen some uptake. Of course, barring PSU banks, real estate, oil and gas, that's seen some
03:56slight profit taking in trade today. The rest of the sectors are all hovering higher. What else is
04:01taking up as far as the nifty gainers are concerned? Look at an eternal, HDFC Life, Sun Pharma, Infosys and
04:07Sipla. These are the top gainers on the nifty right now, rising anywhere between one to two and a
04:13half odd percent in trade. When we look at the top drags, however, you will see names like Cold India,
04:19Tata Motors, Trent, Bajaj Finance, Ultratech Cement and Bharat Electronics as among those that are still
04:25lagging behind in trade as well. But viewers, let's look at the big breaking at this hour. The United
04:33States of America may soon be scrapping the 25% penal tariff that has been imposed on Indian goods
04:40and also lower their reciprocal tariffs from 25% earlier to 10 to 15% as well. That's what
04:48the chief economic advisor to the government, Anand Nageshwaran, has said today. Now, as New Delhi
04:54and Washington have continued their dialogues for the trade deal, Nageshwaran also expects that the
05:00tariff situation will be resolved in the next eight to 10 weeks as well. Remember, the White House has
05:06imposed 50% tariff on Indian goods in August, of which it includes 25% of the punitive duty for India's
05:14high crude oil imports from Russia as well. What he's also said, and I'm quoting, is that my personal
05:20confidence is that in the next couple of months, if not earlier, we will see a resolution to at least
05:25to the extra penal tariff of 25%. Let's listen in to what Mr. V. Anand Nageshwaran had to say on the same.
05:34There have been recent developments in the last couple of weeks and so on. I do believe, I have no
05:40particular basis to say so. I just have my intuition that the penal tariffs will not be there beyond
05:46that. I mean, it's not a statement of, based on any concrete indicator or evidence, it's my hope, that given
05:54the recent development which we see in terms of both countries finding an off-ramp and reaching out to each other,
06:01and including the important negotiator being in India in the first two days of this week, I would believe that
06:09there will be a resolution in the next couple of months on the penal tariff and hopefully on the
06:17zip of the tariff also.
06:20All right, Karishma Sudhani also joins in to share more insights on the same. Karishma, this is big
06:25news that's coming in. Also, a very big relief to the export-oriented sectors at large as well.
06:31I'm also looking at some of the stocks within the textile basket that have already started to rally.
06:35Names like VIP Clothings is already hovering higher in trade. So, we will be looking at the
06:40reaction percolate, but this is definitely big news. Relief on the punitive 25% of a tariff
06:47and also reduction in the premier, the reciprocal tariffs of 25% to now down to 10 to 15%. This is a
06:54huge breather, isn't it?
06:57It absolutely is, Saakshi. And clearly, I think the air of confidence is coming in from the fact that
07:04both the chief negotiators have probably had a successful meeting, though we've heard
07:08officially that it was positive. There are various spectrums of positivity to this and
07:14looks like chief economic advisor's comment is in the backdrop of this, which probably,
07:19of course, has been discussed between the Commerce and Finance Ministry. Doing away with the punitive
07:24tariffs of 25% and reducing the reciprocal tariffs from 25% is going to be very beneficial to us,
07:31especially for the sectors that you were talking about, Saakshi, because it kind of brings us back
07:35on the top. Right now, we were hovering on a seesaw scale with Brazil. And due to that,
07:42we were losing, in fact, a lot to other Southeast Asian countries like that of Vietnam, Thailand,
07:46when it comes to our textile exports. But this will pay a positive growth path, especially with
07:52the fact that US and India are also looking to close down their bilateral trade deal by end of
07:56November. Absolutely. Let's straight away now welcome our guest on board, Mr. Devine Chokshi,
08:01the MD of DR Chokshi Fincer Private Limited, is now joining in to share insights on that front.
08:06Devine, sir, warm welcome. Good afternoon to you. Well, this is big news that's actually coming in.
08:11Also, as a big relief that the chief economic advisor has mentioned that there is hope that,
08:17one, the tariff deadlock that we were seeing up until thus far is likely to get resolved over the
08:22next eight to 10 odd weeks. What he's also mentioned is that a complete, you know, let go
08:28of the punitive 25% tariff is what he's hoping for. Also hoping for the premier reciprocal tariffs
08:35to come down to 10 to 15%. That will now put us in power or at power with all the Southeast Asian
08:41countries that were now standing to benefit against the 50% tariffs that we were imposed with.
08:46Good afternoon, Sakshi. Well, finally, the wisdom prevails, as I would like to say. We have been
08:56talking about this subject, right? Because if you are increasing the tariff, ultimately you are
09:02harming U.S. consumers more than anybody else. And you are harming the U.S. economy by view of
09:07significantly increasing the inflation, which is possibly, I think, creating a bastardly
09:13effect as far as the economic outpoken situation is concerned. So in my viewpoint, I think if
09:20they have taken this particular decision to roll back or they are taking the decision to
09:25roll back the punitive tariffs and restore it back to, I think, whatever the numbers that
09:30you guys are talking about, I would think that it will be only rational and it will probably
09:34help them recover faster as far as their economic condition is concerned. Probably, I think,
09:40countries like India has nothing to lose, even if I think the equals 50% tariff. By and large,
09:46I think that is not understood by all of us. Absolutely. Devin sir, do you think this could
09:51have been an outcome of the one-day meeting that the chief negotiators had between both the countries
09:57and now we could be looking at talks to resume ASAP to put a final number now and therefore all the
10:03uncertainty that has been shrouding the markets for months now should be now put on the back burner
10:09and will that spell great news for the Indian stock markets that have been dealing with a lot of
10:13volatility? Yes, I think for stock market, that's a great news for two reasons. On one side,
10:19US paid cut has happened 25 basis points, first time in this year. What it is signaling is the higher
10:27amount of flow of money from debt to equity and particularly emerging market equity. If that
10:34diversion of fund takes place and India is a choice for most of the investors, stock traders,
10:40I would think that I think this is going to be a positive move or positive reflection on the economy.
10:45On the other side, I think if the currency goes, appreciate I think from 88 and a half to 85, 85 and a half
10:52course of time because of this move, probably I think this is again a sign that yes, Indian stock
10:59market will have to cheer about. Of course, I think this tariff-related decision and then when they take,
11:04I think these two conditions will definitely help investors to bring money back into the country.
11:09So, we relatively remain optimistic about the prospects going forward and the flow of money which
11:14could come into India markets eventually, maybe in 2026.
11:18Absolutely. Mrs. Joksi, help us understand now. On the Nifty, we are already on an upward trajectory.
11:24After a long haul of consolidation, we are back above the 25,400-odd mark. Last couple of sessions
11:30have definitely been good for the Indian stock markets. The Nifty is now eyeing once again its
11:35erstwhile highs of above 26,200 as well. What is the chance that you are penciling in that in case this
11:42tariff talk as what is being expected now, given that what the CEA has said on the tariff front,
11:49if this comes to focus and if this gets published as well, how are you looking at the impact on the
11:55markets? Do you see the Nifty scaling all-time highs once again very soon now?
12:00So, the tailwind for India market is remaining absolutely strong and convincing. On one side,
12:07money has been left in hands of consumers by way of direct tax exemption limit increase to 12 lakh,
12:13by way of giving GST related benefits to the consumer and consumer industries,
12:17by way of lowering of the inflation and lowering of the interest at thereafter and possibility of
12:23the rupee appreciating back to 85, 85 and a half. I think these are all some of the strong tailwinds
12:30which suggested the corporate sector would eventually have a better performance in the
12:35second half of the financial year. If the earning starts looking up in the second half of the financial
12:40year, my take is that I think the markets will smarter look up in the following months.
12:46Okay, fair point. I'll come to that as well and also ask you, you know Mr. Choksi, to help our viewers
12:52identify the right kind of sectors to see as opportunities after the tailwinds are now
12:57pouring in well into focus into the Indian markets. But let's first listen into what Finance Minister
13:03Nirmala Sitaraman had to say, especially when she sent out a strong message to corporate India.
13:08Responding to Tata-san's Chairman Mr. N. Chandrasekharan, she has actually said the government has already
13:13delivered on the long-pending industry demands from easing business rules to opening up of the FDI.
13:18The Finance Minister has urged the companies to expand capacity,
13:21to invest more in India and make it clear that the ball is now in industry, Scott. Let's listen in.
13:30I think today I have a basket of things on which government has delivered.
13:36So the question which remains unanswered, which is the answer I should actually be giving here is,
13:41I hope there's no more hesitation for industry to invest further, to expand capacities, produce more in India.
13:54And what else is required by the government to do? Spell them out.
13:59You have a Prime Minister in this country who you have known for decades from his days as Chief Minister of Gujarat.
14:11And he has never relented on reforms, nor has he ignored the wish list of the industry.
14:23If you could spell out for us on the back of these tailwinds of appropriate tariffs that could be now, you know, coming in for India.
14:34And of course, on the back of the government's measures that you've also pointed out, which are the top sectors that you are betting big on, sir?
14:42So, discretionary consumer spending is going to be rising. And they are connected with auto auto ancillary, real estate and real estate related support industries, as you call it the MS.
14:56Also, the financial companies, NBFCs and the banks, particularly I think who are basically getting the benefit of lower liability side cost and at the same time higher amount of off-tech in the EM due to the borrower's need.
15:12So, in my viewpoint, I think the consumption is going to be the driving theme from here on.
15:16Infrastructure continues to be a most capital-intensive business, of course, but at the same time continues to attract significantly large amount of investment from major players, be it freelance, be it Adani's, be it Tata's or for that matter others.
15:30I believe that I think infrastructure will continue to spend more amount of money.
15:36And that's where power, power utilities, engineering goods and services along with could be the choice of sectors that one could possibly ask for.
15:44Fantastic. Hold that thought there, sir, since you're talking about the consumption theme, the one sector that has clearly stood out as a winner after the GST rationalization news was out on 15th of August.
15:57And from that time, we've actually seen up to 20% of a rally on a lot of stocks.
16:01Maruti Suzuki, the largest car maker in India, the stock has hit a record high level in trade today.
16:06And that's also on the back of the company announcing big price cuts across its entire range beginning 22nd of September.
16:13The biggest savings are on the smallest cars by Maruti, the Espresso, the Bresa, the Franx, the Alto as well.
16:20The company has also said that 10% GST rate cut to 18% of.
16:25So basically the 10% saving is what they're going to be looking at and how that is really translating to eight and a half percent kind of a price cut on the car prices as well.
16:35I'm also now joined by business today's Chetan Bhutani to share more on that front as well.
16:39And Chetan, a list of, you know, all the cars and how their prices are going to be slashed starting 22nd of September is with you.
16:48Help us understand for the Aam Admi, are they going to be winning big this time around in the festive season?
16:53And do they have a lot of opportunities to buy these small cars from Maruti now?
16:58Well, Sakshi, you know, you clearly pointed out the clear winner is, of course, the entry-level car segment.
17:02And we hear because Maruti Suzuki is India's largest car manufacturer.
17:06And of course, there are a lot of variants already operating into the market.
17:09But yes, Maruti Suzuki and of course, in the entire auto industry, we've been seeing the small car segment really declining and registering a degrowth.
17:16But now we are expecting a 10% growth year on year for the small car segment.
17:20If I can break down for our viewers what really and how Maruti Suzuki's rate cuts impact the small car segment.
17:26In fact, Maruti Suzuki has gone beyond the GST rate cuts and given festive bonanzas.
17:30Because if we see on a small car like an Expresso, the company has given a rate cut of about 0.8% to 24 odd percent.
17:38In the auto K10 range, we expect the cut to be between 10 to 20 odd percent.
17:43Celerio between 8.5 to 17 percent.
17:45Wagon R between 8.5 to 14 odd percent.
17:47So, it's really a double festive bonanza from Maruti Suzuki to the consumers.
17:52Because the company is offering discounts, a heavy discount except for the tax cut as well.
17:57Moving beyond the tax cut.
17:58So, really a big bonanza coming up for small car segment as well.
18:01Absolutely.
18:03Price cuts of almost 1,30,000 up to that level is going to be seen as far as some of those cars are concerned.
18:11We'll definitely come to Mr. Choksi to understand which are the car companies and the auto companies that you should be keeping on your radar in case you're investing in this theme right ahead of the festive season as well.
18:21But, actually, let's also focus on the European Union and what they have said as far as keeping aside the controversial issues like agri and automobiles is concerned while advancing their trade talks with India as well.
18:34In an approach which actually seems in stark contrast to the U.S., the EU has actually said that the talks are progressing on the other issues as well.
18:42I would say that agriculture parts, again, it was, I think, first meeting I had with my friend and esteemed colleague, Piyush Goyal,
18:56that simply some of the sensitive products for the both side, we just leave a side if we want to make a progress.
19:02And we know which they are.
19:04I think we agreed upon them early on.
19:08Therefore, therefore, I was really hopeful that with all this understanding, we could close agriculture chapter or the last week.
19:16Unfortunately, it was not possible.
19:19We'll have another try, but we also need the understanding from Indian side that we also have our constituency, we also have our audience.
19:28And I have to bring the agreement to the member states, European parliaments and my colleagues in the college who would support it.
19:36All right, let's go back to our conversation with Mr. Chokhsi.
19:40A lot of points to be really discussing with him.
19:43Mr. Chokhsi, first up, the auto space from the consumption-oriented basket is what I want to begin with.
19:48Maruti has already hit a record high level.
19:50It's been up, you know, about 4% to 5% in the last couple of sessions alone.
19:54We're also seeing not just the frontline OEM players, but also auto ancillaries at large,
20:00tractor majors across the board, we've been seeing a lot of buoyancy on the back of the GST rationalization
20:06and what that could do to the upcoming festive demand.
20:09How are you playing up this theme right ahead of the festive season, sir?
20:13Is there a priority list, a pecking order of choice of stocks that you have, sir?
20:18Two companies which remain definitely in the top of the list in the priority.
20:22One in two-wheeler, one in four-wheeler, and that would include Bajajato and Tata Motors.
20:29Both these companies have a business plan, I think, which we have understood that they are
20:34rolling out new models, electric vehicle presence, bringing down the cost, adapting to the localization,
20:42earlier premiumization products, etc.
20:44on one side, and Tata Motors kind of company doing a structural move by way of de-merging
20:51the passenger in the commercial vehicle businesses from the company, and in turn,
20:56give more leeway to respective companies to grow the size of the business locally as well as globally.
21:02So, if one is taking a long-term view on these companies, certainly, I think, it is an opportunity
21:07as I see it.
21:08If one is trying to short-term, momentum-based view, I'm not too sure whether I think it is the right choice.
21:13But long-term investment, yes, I think we believe that there is an underlying story with the strength.
21:19Okay, so auto space is clearly going to be in focus.
21:22Apart from the auto space, let me also understand from you, you know, given the kind of cuts
21:27that will be spelling, you know, more spirits into the Indian stock markets, within the consumption basket,
21:34how are you looking at consumer durables, for instance?
21:37How are you looking at FMCG?
21:38Maybe even e-commerce players that will be, you know, the choice of marketplace for a lot of people
21:45to go ahead and buy this festive season and take the benefit of price cuts, sir.
21:50So, consumer actions will validate this particular reduction in the price due to GST.
21:57And that's what I think one is looking out for in October to December quarter,
22:02where the major amount of festive season events are lying ahead.
22:07In my viewpoint, starting Navaratri next week, I think onwards thereafter,
22:12to the entire season till December, we'll probably, I think, validate the entire rate reduction,
22:19price reduction, whatever you call it as, I think, and the benefit coming to the companies.
22:23We are cautiously optimistic about the situation going forward
22:27and believe that I think some of the large consumer companies
22:31which are having a better product portfolio in respective categories
22:34are up for, I think, significantly large amount of growth
22:37headed by the lower cost of funds, of course, I think, which is definitely helping.
22:42So, let's wait and see.
22:43I think the growth definitely, I think, is to be more than the previous six months
22:47in the second half of the financial year.
22:49I also wanted to ask you, Mr. Choksi, a lot of our viewers and a lot of investors
22:56must be looking to understand what next for the Indian markets
23:00after a long haul of underperformance vis-a-vis the other asset classes
23:03like gold and silver for that matter.
23:06You know, finally, when the things are, you know, falling in the right place,
23:11is this the right time to double down investments onto the Indian stock markets?
23:15Should one put all the cash that's, you know, enhanced to
23:19and deploy that into the markets at this point in time?
23:21And what is the best way to approach it?
23:24We've already seen a lot of recovery take place in the markets.
23:27And in case we are on the way to hit all-time high levels,
23:30what's the best way to play this rally from here onwards?
23:34I would think that I think systematic investment on a monthly basis
23:37or a periodical basis is the right approach for investors.
23:41Be it in any asset class, mutual fund or equity directly,
23:45I think one should be adapting to a systematic investment.
23:50Right.
23:52Okay.
23:53Thank you so much, Mr. Choksi, for your views on the markets
23:56and, of course, your insights as to what these easing of tariffs
24:00really means for the markets at large
24:03and for the investors at large as well.
24:05This is one theme that is going to be extremely important
24:08for understanding how this move really translates
24:11into tomorrow's trading session as well, viewers.
24:13But let's start by wrapping up.
24:14The market is 3.30 and we have ended at 25,421,
24:19near the high point of the day.
24:21After having seen some profits taken off,
24:23the markets again pulled up just on the back of news flows
24:27that tariff talks could soon resume
24:30and could conclude in the next 8 to 10 weeks.
24:33We are also given to understand that the punitive 25% tariff,
24:37the additional 25% tariffs that were imposed on us
24:40may be removed completely
24:42and those that were primarily put at 25%
24:45may be brought down to 10 to 15% as well.
24:47And that is definitely a big news
24:49and, you know, big push that the bulls have been looking forward to as well.
24:54Let's quickly wrap up.
24:55So, the Nifty's ended higher by 0.3%.
24:57The Nifty Bank is also up by about 0.4%.
25:01This has been the index that's up and running for the 12th trade session today
25:05and has crossed over the 55,700 mark in today's trade.
25:09The broader markets also end with 0.3% of a move on the higher side.
25:13All the sectors, barring real estate and PSU banks and media stocks,
25:16they continue to end with gains.
25:18Pharma Index up by 1.5%, the top moving sector in trade today.
25:22IT Index follows next with 0.8% of a move.
25:25You also had private banks, financial services
25:28that were inching higher in trade.
25:30Top movers today have been Eternal,
25:32the parent company of Zomato, almost 3% of an uptick.
25:36From the life insurance basket, HDFC Life up by 2%,
25:39Sun Pharma, Infosys, Cipla,
25:41even IT and pharma companies definitely supporting the move.
25:45On the downside, however, you had names like
25:47Coal India, Bajaj Finance, Trend, Tata Motors and Ultratech Cimet.
25:51So that's how the markets have shut shop in trade today.
25:55But there's also some good news for people in Delhi NCR.
25:58The countdown has begun for India's newest aviation hub.
26:01The International Airport at Jewar in Uttar Pradesh
26:04will be inaugurated on October 30th
26:07with commercial operations expected to start within 45 days.
26:11Civil Aviation Minister Mr. Naidu has said
26:13the first phase will connect the airport to 10 key Indian cities,
26:17promising major relief to Delhi Airport
26:20and boosting regional as well as the national connectivity as well.
26:23Let's listen in.
26:24Noida Airport also, we are trying to push up
26:29the inauguration of the airport
26:33so that we can see it happen very soon.
26:35And right now, the date that we have decided is 30th of October.
26:4030th of October to do the inauguration
26:42and within 45 days from that date,
26:44we can see the operations also start.
26:46How many flights will be taking off?
26:48So, right now, the plan, I don't know the exact plan,
26:52but the airlines are very much excited to operate from Jewar Airport also.
26:56They feel that there is a huge potential from that area.
26:59So, I can foresee that at least 10 cities will be connected
27:03in the first phase from Jewar Airport,
27:05seeing the discussions that are happening with the airlines.
27:11And we see it as a strategic,
27:13more than the civil aviation connectivity,
27:15we see it as a good cargo connectivity airport.
27:17So, we see a lot of cargo operations.
27:20All right, viewers.
27:21So, all eyes on the Jewar Airport.
27:24October 30th is when it opens
27:25and commercial operations begin in December of 2025.
27:28That's a wrap on Business Today's show,
27:30but do tune in tomorrow morning at 9 a.m.
27:32when Abha Bakaya brings you all the morning market action.
27:35Stay tuned.
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