00:00Risks involved as well. And let's talk for a second about Putin and his warnings that any foreign troops would be legitimate targets.
00:07Tobias, is that going to deter European allies or maybe that even stiffens their resolve, you think?
00:12No, you're absolutely right to ask that question, because go back to the very start of this war back in 2022.
00:18And there was this constant messaging from Moscow.
00:23Every time we considered sliding across another weapon system to Ukraine to help them,
00:28we got this rhetoric from Putin and the West was spooked, if we're honest.
00:34We had public debates, if you recall, about whether a weapon system was offensive or defensive and discussions about main battle tanks, F-16, long range missiles.
00:46That should never have been in the public domain. We've just been far more committed.
00:50We've lost that Cold War statecraft, if you like, to look our adversary in the eye, conscious of the escalatory ladder.
00:58You don't want things to get out of control. But knowing how far you can push your adversary before things tip over.
01:03And we've lost that art completely. And here we are again with Putin pushing back, saying,
01:10you dare do this. You dare put foreign troops on the ground or have any form of foreign capability to boost Ukraine's defence posture.
01:18And we will respond. Well, let's be stronger than that. Let's be tougher than that.
01:22Let's not blink.
01:25Let's talk about Ukraine and the promise that they've been given of EU membership five years from now, by 2030.
01:31What do you think Moscow would make of that? And how realistic actually is that timeline?
01:36You know, this is really interesting. You visit Ukraine and you actually realise that, sadly, it hasn't advanced.
01:42It hasn't moved as fast as some of those other countries that came out of the traps at the same time.
01:47And when the Soviet Union fell, you know, you go to Poland and look at how they've advanced.
01:51You look at the Baltic nations. They're all doing incredibly well, partly because, yes, they've also joined the EU.
01:58But ultimately, Ukraine has stayed behind. The oligarchs, the corruption, it's not advanced.
02:05And one of the things that scares Russia is to have a state as big, as large and economically eventually as powerful as Ukraine, being an exemplar as to how things should be done.
02:17And that's the last thing Putin wants. He's got Belarus up there, which is a complete basket case.
02:23And so he wants a buffer zone so Russian people don't look over their shoulders and say,
02:28Hang on a minute. We want our economy to work a bit like that.
02:31And that's, I think, at the heart of what's driving Putin to make sure that that's why he wants to be encouraged to invade Ukraine in the first place.
02:40So this desire to join the EU, to upgrade the economic capability there and to introduce a less corrupt society is all, I think, good news for Ukraine.
02:54Ukrainian people will actually want it. And it's well overdue.
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