A Pro-Russian government in Moldova will facilitate offensive against Ukraine, analyst says

FRANCE 24 English

Moldovan authorities have denounced what they call "unprecedented" Russian interference in an upcoming parliamentary election, citing cyberattacks, destabilisation, electoral corruption and disinformation. These instruments aim to discredit the pro-European party of President Maia Sandu, who was re-elected last year. FRANCE 24 speaks to Clara Volintiru, Black Sea Regional Director at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.  Visit our website: http://www.france24.com  Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English  Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/France24_en

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00:00This is apropos. The French president is headed to Moldova this Wednesday along with leaders

00:08from Germany and Poland ahead of parliamentary elections at the end of next month. The show

00:14of support for the EU candidate country comes as it accuses Russia of increasing efforts to

00:20destabilize it by interfering in domestic politics. France 24 correspondent Maria Gerth

00:26Nikolesky reports. These protesters have gathered following the call of pro-Russian oligarch

00:32Ilan Shor. As parliamentary elections draw closer, Moscow-aligned parties are intensifying their

00:39campaign. We came here to express our disagreement with this dictatorial regime imposed by those in

00:46power. There's no other way to call it because today there is no freedom, no freedom of expression.

00:51Ilan Shor has promised illegal financial compensation for demonstrators. Protesters

01:00deny receiving money, but the police regularly document such payments. According to the government,

01:06these rallies are part of a wider Kremlin propaganda campaign to influence the vote.

01:12This activist is trying to counter disinformation through explanatory videos on social media.

01:18His latest video debunks a deepfake featuring the head of the Electoral Commission.

01:24The fact that a country like France intervenes in our elections is not considered foreign interference.

01:30They discredit the Moldovan authorities so that pro-government, pro-European voters won't turn out.

01:41Or so that those who support a pro-East, pro-Kremlin path become furious.

01:51Experts estimate that Russia has invested nearly 100 million euros in its interference campaign in

01:56Moldova, including voter corruption partly financed through cryptocurrencies, according to several

02:02sources.

02:03The money raised through these transactions is used, among other things, to influence Moldovan

02:09elections. Moldova is seen as a secondary target in the war against Ukraine and can be used as a tool

02:16for destabilization.

02:21Moldova began EU accession talks last year. But keeping a pro-European majority in parliament

02:28will be an uphill battle for President Maya Sandu's party.

02:34For more on what's at stake, we're joined now by Clara Voluntiru, Black Sea Regional Director at the German

02:39Marshall Fund of the United States.

02:42Clara, thanks so much for being with us on the programme.

02:45As we say, the French president is among a European delegation headed to Moldova tomorrow.

02:51So what message will Macron, Mertz and Tusk be delivering during the visit?

02:57And who exactly will they be sending this message to?

03:01Good evening. Thank you for joining us in this important conversation, because it is a conversation

03:08about the security of the whole Europe.

03:12Many times we've seen these destabilizing practices piloted in Moldova or in other frontier countries

03:19and then spread across the European Union.

03:22And we've seen this last year at the presidential elections and at the EU referendum.

03:28And then we saw many of those online and offline techniques of destabilization coming up in

03:35the elections in Romania or Germany or France.

03:39So I think what we should be looking ahead for the Moldovan elections and for the message that

03:45the Weimar leaders will be delivering is that Europe stands along the pro-democratic forces

03:53in Moldova and for the European future of Moldova.

03:57And the target audience of these messages, collective messages, are threefold.

04:04One is the Moldovan public that needs to know that Moldova has a strong and consequential

04:12stand along the European powers.

04:16Secondly, the political elites that should know that they will also be part of a pro-European

04:24coalition if they want their country to preserve a European future.

04:29And finally, I think it's also a message for Kremlin to show that Moldova will not be left

04:36aside or on its own devices in the upcoming elections.

04:40And Clara, how significant in the larger picture then is this trip?

04:45You say it's part of a broader strategy being implemented by politicians in key EU member

04:51states.

04:53I think it matters a lot.

04:56There is a very clear block of pro-European voters in Moldova, pro-European supporters, people

05:05who understand the future, their personal future and the future of the country inside the European

05:12family.

05:13But at the same time, there is a majority of Moldovan citizens who haven't yet grasped the

05:20full potential of a European trajectory for their country.

05:23And so when European leaders show up, they show this message of solidarity and dispute any

05:31malign narratives that Moldovan citizens are left aside, that they don't matter for the

05:37European, for Western European and European powers.

05:41So when you have Ursula von der Leyen, when you have the European enlargement commissioner, Marta

05:47Kos, when you have the Weimar Triangle leaders, President Macron, Chancellor Mertz and

05:54Prime Minister Tusk.

05:57And when you have a very strong engagement from neighboring Romania with the newly elected

06:03president, very strong on the societal resilience part, Nico Chordain.

06:09All of these stances matter for the Moldovan public and again, for building a pro-European

06:15coalition after the coming elections.

06:18And Moldova, it's essentially been tugged between East and West for decades now.

06:22What exactly is Russia's main objective here?

06:25And how does it go about interfering in political processes and elections?

06:32Moldova matters along the full side of the European frontier.

06:38So if you would have, again, a pro-Russian government in Moldova, then the offensive against

06:46Ukraine would be much easier, given that you would have a much lower resistance across

06:53the eastern part of the country.

06:56I think this is a whole of Europe security stance.

07:01And not incidentally, the Weimar Triangle leaders have gathered to discuss the future of Ukraine

07:07in Rome this summer.

07:09And not incidentally, President Macron has had the first meeting of the European political

07:14community in Chisinau a couple of years ago.

07:17So I think European leaders are very mindful of the fact that countering Russia's aggression

07:24towards not just Ukraine, but the whole of Europe, is a process that has to unfold across

07:32the full eastern frontier, including Moldova.

07:35And what is the government there doing to fight back against these destabilization efforts?

07:40The goal has always been to delegitimize the European trajectory, to delegitimize the European

07:52political, the pro-European political leaders and the European political leaders that support

07:57President Maia Sando.

07:59So many of the Russian narratives have been targeting these actors and have tried to show that actually

08:07Moldova is better off in a, let's say, in-between status.

08:13On the other side, countering these narratives is very intuitive, if you want.

08:19The economic prosperity of Moldova is better served in a European trajectory.

08:26The rule of law and good governance are better served through the reforms that go hand in hand

08:32with its future as a pre-accession process.

08:36So there are many benefits to the average citizens that these political stance of President Maia

08:43Sando and the past government have delivered.

08:46However, they were not always well articulated.

08:50And so the Russian-backed networks that the reporter was mentioning, the Ilan Shore clientelistic

08:57networks have been very able and have managed to sway voters who are undecided or, let's say,

09:07less integrated into the overall processes of reform and investments that the country has

09:15been undergoing over the past years.

09:17And is all of this a big talking point in Moldova ahead of these elections?

09:22Is this something that voters are focusing on, are prioritizing ahead of the vote?

09:27There is always a rational component and an emotional component.

09:35And where we see a very strong penetration of the pro-Russian Ilan Shore-backed networks,

09:42it's usually in rural areas, in secondary cities, in small communities, in the neighborhood.

09:49And I think it's not only through the clientelistic networks that are fueled by enormous amounts

09:57of money delivered from Kremlin via different mechanisms, but it's also this sense of detachment

10:06from the center that mayors and local communities sometimes have.

10:10And that's paradoxical in a country that's not necessarily very large.

10:15So there is a case to be made with regards to a better stakeholder coordination, a structured

10:22dialogue where people feel that they are part of Moldova's future and it's not just decided

10:28for them.

10:29I think that's the main weakness that the pro-Russian narratives are trying to emphasize

10:36in support of the pro-Russian political parties.

10:39Clara, thanks so much for being with us on the program.

10:42We'll have to leave it there for now.

10:44That is Clara Volentiro, Black Sea Regional Director at the German Marshall Fund of the United

10:49States.

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