00:00But in your opinion, do you think Jerome Powell downplayed recent signs of weakness in the U.S. economy and in the data, especially in the labor market, during his speech?
00:14I'm so glad you asked this. I'm sorry I interrupted you there.
00:17No, it's all right. But I was just thinking, if so, why? Why has he been doing this?
00:21I am at odds with a lot of commentators on this. And I've heard a lot of commentators on the financial networks today saying that Powell emphasized labor market weakness.
00:30I saw that very differently. Yes, the economy is creating fewer jobs than it did a year ago.
00:37Past three months, we see the average job creation of about thirty five thousand a month.
00:41This time last year, it was almost one hundred and seventy thousand.
00:44So, yeah, that's a big difference, particularly after those downward revisions to previous month's status that we saw last month.
00:51Remember, that's what caused Donald Trump to fire the head of the Labor Statistical Agency.
00:56But Trump Trump, excuse me, Powell went out of his way to say, look, immigration has almost come to a halt.
01:04So an economy that is receiving fewer immigrants doesn't need to create as many jobs.
01:10And as evidence of that, he said, look, job creation is slowing.
01:13But the unemployment rate has been steady at about four point one, four point two percent.
01:18That's what economists consider to be full employment.
01:21Right. You're always going to have some unemployment in an economy.
01:24You'll have mothers who want to stay at home, people who choose not to work, students.
01:28You'll always have some unemployment.
01:30And Powell seems to think that the unemployment rate at four point one, four point two percent is not anything to worry about.
01:38That immigration or a lack of immigration is the big factor in affecting the labor market right now.
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