- 5 months ago
Bill Koch joined Toucher & Hardy to discuss the Red Sox’ playoff outlook, their strengths at Fenway versus struggles on the road, and lingering concerns about the bullpen. While Boston holds a strong position for a Wild Card spot, Koch noted their lack of reliable arms beyond Chapman and Whitlock could doom them in October. The group also debated whether the Sox’ spending strategy—locking up prospects while avoiding big free-agent signings—signals true investment or just cost-cutting spin.
IMAGE COURTESY OF USA TODAY NETWORK
IMAGE COURTESY OF USA TODAY NETWORK
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00:00Bill, the Red Sox, not overly hot of late.
00:06So, okay, first of all, what do you think the chance,
00:10do you think they're for sure going to make the playoffs?
00:13They're at 74%.
00:15They're three games up on Cleveland.
00:17They're three games up on Cleveland.
00:18Everyone's tied.
00:19They're not winning the division unless there's a total breakdown by Toronto.
00:23But do you think it's a foregone conclusion that they make the playoffs?
00:28Yeah, the better question, I think, is can you see Cleveland, Texas,
00:32or Kansas City catching them?
00:34And my answer would be probably not.
00:37You know, Cleveland's got two of its best pitchers suspended with Ortiz and Class A.
00:41The Royals have sort of been injury hit throughout the year.
00:44And Texas, for whatever reason, just can't really get it going.
00:48You know, so one of those teams would have to pass the Red Sox.
00:51And, you know, honestly, over the last 35 games or so,
00:54I think they'll have enough to get one of the three wild card spots.
00:58Well, Kansas City, out of the three teams you just mentioned,
01:00is the only team playing well.
01:02So, yeah.
01:03And that is not a team that I would be overly concerned about.
01:07All right.
01:07So let's fast forward to the playoffs.
01:10The way the team is constructed, say they have to go on the road,
01:15which I think they will.
01:16But say they have to go on the road in the playoffs,
01:19what do you think the chances are that they get passed through that?
01:23Where are their strengths and weaknesses?
01:25It would be tough.
01:27I mean, they're 18 games over at Fenway.
01:30You know, but they have not played as well on the road.
01:33Beyond Crochet, who starts game two?
01:35Probably Brian Baio at this point.
01:37I think he's earned the nod over Lucas Giolito.
01:40And then once you get late in the game, you know,
01:42who throws the sixth or seventh inning?
01:44I don't think they've identified bullpen pieces beyond
01:47Oralda Chapman and Garrett Whitlock.
01:49You know, so there are still some major questions for this team to answer
01:54with about 35 to go.
01:56Okay.
01:56So that leads to an interesting point.
01:59Everything's all jammed up.
02:00Say it's those three teams, Seattle, New York, and Red Sox.
02:03And you're playing for home field at the end of the regular season.
02:07You mentioned Crochet starting game one.
02:10If Crochet's up in the rotation and you're playing,
02:14you've made the playoffs, but you're playing for home field,
02:17do you sacrifice Crochet in that game to get home field
02:22or do you save him for the playoffs?
02:24Is home field worth enough to burn Crochet, burn a start for Crochet?
02:30If you like your right-handed pitcher's matchups against potential opponents,
02:35then I would seriously think about it.
02:37Because you just can't deny how much better this team has been at Fenway Bark
02:42than it has been on the road.
02:43And, you know, just look at their record in extra inning games on the road
02:46and how many times they've been walked off
02:48and how much difficulty they've had in late innings.
02:51Well, the postseason is all about pressure situations close and late.
02:55And, you know, away from Fenway this year,
02:57they just have not performed in those spots.
03:00So it is something that you would definitely think about
03:03if you felt like Baio and Giolito could match up
03:06with a right-handed heavy lineup potentially against the playoff opponent.
03:11And I think it's something that you absolutely have to factor in.
03:15Yeah, and also I have to be thinking about the bullpen,
03:18which you wrote about and we've talked about
03:21and its importance in the regular season versus the postseason.
03:25But what I like that you said, Bill,
03:28was it really all conversations away from your starters
03:34and Aroldis Chapman,
03:35they all come down to one guy that really strikes fear into the heart of everyone.
03:40And we saw it again last night in Jordan Hicks.
03:43Like, if he's coming into the game, like, all bets are off.
03:48And the comparisons you made between the Sox
03:50and what the Padres are working with right now,
03:53it's like they're playing two different games
03:55when it gets beyond the sixth inning.
03:57And as good as your closer is,
04:01there's just too much at stake for these guys right now
04:04to be handing the ball over to any number of bullpen guys.
04:09So how do you think that's going to factor in
04:11and how is it going to play out for the Red Sox here in the next month or so?
04:16Well, we saw the other day they went to Greg Weissert
04:18and he's not a high strikeout guy, not a power arm.
04:22And he got stung on a slider out over the plate.
04:25Yes, the Red Sox lead the AL in bullpen ERA.
04:28I can't deny that.
04:30But if you look a little deeper,
04:31there are some numbers there that are concerning.
04:33They're 12th in strikeouts per nine.
04:37You know, they walk too many guys out of that group.
04:41Garrett Whitlock has already topped his career high in appearances.
04:44He's at 48 games.
04:46He appeared in 46 in 2021,
04:48which was during a breakout rookie year in a postseason run.
04:52And like you mentioned with Hicks,
04:55you know, this is a guy who turns 29 in September.
04:58He's not a prospect anymore.
04:59This is supposed to be the prime of his career.
05:02And I think what you see from him is obviously elite stuff,
05:05but he has not been able to command it.
05:08And these hitters are so good that if you don't command your stuff,
05:11whether you're throwing 101 miles an hour with a sinker and a sweeper
05:14and, you know, a split-finger fastball,
05:16which he threw a lot last night in his outing,
05:20it does not matter.
05:21These guys will turn you around.
05:22They will wait you out.
05:23They will walk against you.
05:25And, you know,
05:26I don't think necessarily the Red Sox have identified a third option to go
05:30along with Chapman and Whitlock yet.
05:32Given the state of the bullpen,
05:33which you wrote about,
05:34given the state of this lineup,
05:36which is platoon heavy,
05:38what do you think ownership thinks is a successful season this year?
05:42Is it making the playoffs?
05:43Is it playing meaningful games into the second week of September?
05:46Where's your mind at?
05:49Well,
05:49I'll start with attendance.
05:50They're second in the American League now.
05:52They've bounced back from a few lower seasons.
05:57Woo-woo!
05:57You know,
05:58woo-woo!
05:59Indeed.
06:01It's a success.
06:02Say it.
06:02There's people at the park.
06:03Yeah, that's true.
06:04We did it.
06:05All right.
06:06You know,
06:06we said we were going to invest,
06:08and we did at least to our satisfaction.
06:12They also shed themselves of a mammoth salary.
06:14I don't know about investing,
06:15but okay.
06:17Right.
06:18You know,
06:18and they got it to the point where they are winning at home,
06:21and they have been entertaining at home,
06:23and, you know,
06:24they have been a good product on most nights.
06:27They do have some guys to get excited about,
06:30but, you know,
06:31this is not the superstar-heavy team of 2018.
06:36You're not coming out to watch greatness on a given night
06:39or, you know,
06:40three or four Cy Young winners in a rotation.
06:43You know,
06:44and I think attendance,
06:45certainly,
06:46they'll look and they'll point at that.
06:47They'll look at the development of some of their younger players.
06:50You know,
06:50the fact that they've been able to extend Roman Anthony.
06:52Okay,
06:53so let's get to that.
06:55So what concerns me about the extensions to Anthony
06:58and to Campbell
07:00is that,
07:02great,
07:03they locked them up.
07:04That's fantastic and good for them,
07:06but good for everyone.
07:07I can understand wanting to get your money now.
07:09There could be a cap.
07:10There could be a lockout,
07:10all these things.
07:11But I would be concerned as a Red Sox fan
07:15that they would go,
07:17we're not going to do anything in free agency,
07:19and then they go,
07:20well,
07:20you're not spending any money.
07:21What are you talking about?
07:22We've locked up our future.
07:23And saying that the money that they're spending on those,
07:27you know,
07:28those prospects that have made the team,
07:31or in one case,
07:32that are on the team,
07:33that they've,
07:34that's where the money's going.
07:36And that's just not true.
07:38That's just a spin
07:40for something that's disingenuous.
07:43Yeah,
07:45the problem with this has always been
07:46this pivot to sustainability,
07:49this pivot to building through the farm system
07:51and whatever else.
07:52The Red Sox are one of the teams
07:54with resources to do both.
07:56They can build through the farm system,
07:57they can retain their own players,
07:59and they can go out in free agency
08:01or in the trade market and add salary.
08:03They are one of the highest revenue teams
08:06in baseball.
08:07They always have been
08:09under this Henry ownership group.
08:11There is no question
08:13that they can do more
08:15with their roster than,
08:16you know,
08:17just about 25 teams in the game.
08:20They have chosen not to.
08:21They have made that choice
08:23in terms of spending.
08:24They've put in their own artificial salary cap,
08:28for lack of a better term,
08:29that they clearly will not go over.
08:31They've made this huge emphasis
08:33of not wanting to go over
08:34the competitive balance tax.
08:36And, you know,
08:37I think that's why you see
08:38so many holes in the roster,
08:40whether it's late in the bullpen
08:41or trying to platoon it
08:43at positions in the field.
08:44And you can't necessarily say
08:46that this is max effort
08:48or full throttle
08:49or however they'd like to spin it.
08:51It's just not that.
08:53Right.
08:53And then you could understand,
08:56see, like now,
08:57I don't understand the trade.
08:59Look, the trade deadline
09:00wasn't earth-shattering
09:03really for anyone.
09:04And look at what it's done for Texas.
09:05I mean, you know, whatever.
09:07But deals like they made for Crochet
09:10and you're at the point now
09:13where you should be dealing prospects
09:14to get better now
09:16and that you should be signing free agents
09:18to get better now.
09:19An argument could have been made
09:21last offseason,
09:22the offseason before that.
09:24Like, do you think,
09:25well, this is a question
09:27that I don't think is even about money.
09:29It's about the player
09:30and the age and everything.
09:32Is Bregman, if you're the Red Sox,
09:34someone that you definitely
09:36want to bring back?
09:38You certainly have to talk to him,
09:40but he, like anyone else,
09:41is going to have a price.
09:42And at some point,
09:44they're going to be uncomfortable
09:45with the price, I would think.
09:46Is he a guy you sell out on, though,
09:48given his age?
09:50Like, in injury history,
09:51is he a guy that you are
09:54the highest bidder on
09:55if you're the GM?
09:58He went into last year
10:00looking for something
10:01that started with a two on it.
10:04And I think, you know,
10:05he's probably rehabilitated himself enough
10:07to the point where
10:09he's going to get an offer
10:10that's more than three or four years
10:11and something more
10:13than $30, $35 million per.
10:16So you know the price point already.
10:19You know, if you're comfortable
10:20going $150 million times,
10:23you know, five times $150,
10:24something like that,
10:25then you do it
10:26because he is a veteran presence.
10:28He will have value in October.
10:30He clearly has a good influence
10:32on your younger players.
10:34And he plays a position
10:35at third base
10:36where he came up
10:37as a shortstop.
10:38I think he can age well
10:39in that spot.
10:41And I think that you can
10:42surround him at the plate
10:44to the point where
10:45if he drops off a little bit,
10:46it's okay.
10:47He's still going to draw walks.
10:48He still has a good
10:49understanding of the strike zone.
10:51And that's not going to change.
10:54You know, but like everyone else,
10:56the Red Sox are going to evaluate him
10:57at a certain price point.
10:59And if he gets offers over that,
11:01unfortunately,
11:02I think they would walk away.
11:04Yeah, they're spending money
11:05on their terms, guys.
11:06They're not spending money
11:07on anybody else's.
11:08That's how they justify
11:09keeping the price point down.
11:11That's what they've done.
11:12They ignored the Major League roster
11:14for four or five years.
11:16Yeah, but now would be the time
11:17that it's very difficult
11:18to make an argument
11:19that you shouldn't be improving it.
11:20All right, listen, Bill Koch
11:23covers the Red Sox
11:24and so much more
11:25for the Providence Journal.
11:27Always a pleasure, sir.
11:28Always appreciate it.
11:29For all the latest
11:30from the Sports Hub,
11:31download the app
11:32at 98.5thesportshub.com.
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