00:00Let's talk to Tom Jenkins in Mcuntleth, the CEO of the European Tourism Association.
00:05Tom, good to see you. Are we really going to give up on sun, sea, and what was the last S? Sand, I think.
00:12Sand is a very good combination with sun and sea. You're quite right.
00:17I don't think we are. I think what you've just heard from Tui is that traditional holiday patterns still hold strong.
00:24I'm not saying there isn't a trend in different directions, but the bulk of European tourism, if you're looking at intra-European tourism, is dominated by families from northern Europe seeking warm weather in the summer.
00:38And speaking as I am from rural Wales, we're not experiencing a heatwave here at the moment.
00:45And I think you'll find that there's still a huge demand, principally from northern Europe, to go south to the sun.
00:51Not withstanding wildfires, not withstanding heat, there's still a huge draw.
00:56And it's very seasonal because demand is necessarily focused if you've got a family around school to holidays.
01:03So we're still going to see that concentration.
01:05I guess the issue is those families may choose to go further north in Europe.
01:10They won't put up with the risk of wildfires or water shortages, which is increasingly becoming an issue in southern Europe.
01:17It's becoming an issue. It's yet to affect the vast bulk of holidaymakers.
01:23I think the headlines we heard are concerning. They're real. I don't question their reality, nor do I question the temperature inside cities.
01:32But you'll find that people going, and I must emphasize, I represent cultural tour operators, not sun and sea tour operators.
01:41But if you're looking at the overwhelming demand, there's not a great change in the pattern yet.
01:45We are seeing a modest rise in average holiday spending, aren't we?
01:51Are travellers putting that extra cash into luxury experiences that folks are simply no longer looking at holidays as a luxury?
02:01They view them as a necessity.
02:04Well, I think people now define themselves by what they do on vacation.
02:10And I think you're right. It is a necessity.
02:12It is very difficult to generalize.
02:16The great discussion at the moment is what's known as experiential holidays.
02:20But ultimately, every holiday is an experience, whether there's a good, bad, entertaining or dull.
02:26I think, in general terms, people are starting to become a lot more sophisticated about what they want to do and where they want to go.
02:33And I think this is a welcome change.
02:35Well, let's talk about cultural holidays.
02:37I mean, let's talk about places like the Parthenon, the Acropolis.
02:41When you speak to people running those locations, they're deeply concerned about over-tourism, as it's known.
02:48I wonder if this gentle move towards off-peak and lesser-known destinations will mean a huge sigh of relief from those organizations running cultural holidays.
02:58I think the case of over-tourism, again, it's a bit like wildfires.
03:07It's definitely occurring in certain spots.
03:10But it really only occurs in 3% of destinations.
03:14And in those destinations, it occurs really only in about 3% of those destinations.
03:20There's no doubt there's crowding on the Acropolis.
03:22This extreme heat does dissipate that.
03:25People do not go midday.
03:27And there's real crowds in central Venice.
03:29But a lot of Venice, for example, is not overcrowded.
03:33And a lot of Italy is not overcrowded.
03:35And a lot of Europe is not overcrowded.
03:36So there's plenty of space for people to go.
03:39But I don't think we're going to see a diminution in demand for the things that people want to see.
03:44People have got bucket lists.
03:45They've got an idea of what they want to see and be photographed there.
03:50And they'll still go there.
03:51There'll still be crowds on the Rialto in Venice, even in 15 years' time.
03:55Well, let's look at the 50 years' time and beyond.
03:58I guess in this warming world, Wales' holiday boom is on the horizon.
04:03That's the way to look at it.
04:04Indeed.
04:05I will give that prognosis here and it will be most welcome.
04:10Tom, good to see you.
04:11Thanks for coming on the show.
04:12Tom Jenkins, CEO of European Tourism Association.
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