00:00Go back to the scenarios that you mentioned, as you said, uncertain could go either way,
00:04depending on decisions by certain policymakers, unelected, as we've mentioned. Is there a signal
00:09that you could see happening that would confirm it's looking to go inflationary or it's looking
00:16to go deflationary or the other side? Is there a particular signal there?
00:21I think the biggest signal is that the Fed has to begin changing its hawkishness,
00:27despite the fact that they haven't met their inflation targets. So, for example,
00:31if you go back to 2019 during the repo rate spike, in September of 2019, the repo market had all sorts
00:38of problems, and the Fed had to abruptly end their quantitative tightening and shift to a form of
00:43quantitative easing, and they had trouble explaining why they had to do it. And it was in large part
00:47because you had T-bills crowding out bank reserves.
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