Wall Street closed mixed as investors reacted to fresh economic data and political developments. Former President Donald Trump has officially nominated Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board, sparking debates over the future direction of U.S. monetary policy. In this video, we break down what this means for interest rates, market sentiment, and stock performance.
#StockMarket #Trump #FederalReserve #StephenMiran #USStocks #WallStreet #InterestRates #MarketNews #FinanceNews #Investing #EconomicNews #StockMarketToday #DowJones #NASDAQ #SP500
#StockMarket #Trump #FederalReserve #StephenMiran #USStocks #WallStreet #InterestRates #MarketNews #FinanceNews #Investing #EconomicNews #StockMarketToday #DowJones #NASDAQ #SP500
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03:44Tại sao, khi we went to the sum other parts approach to looking at S&P a year and a half ago,
03:50that's when we created this concept.
03:52That is just blowing numbers away.
03:55Once again, we saw, without NVDA even reporting,
04:00you saw earnings growth at 27%.
04:03You saw the magnitude of beat at 12 percentage points.
04:09And you also saw net margins improving by almost 200 basis points.
04:15That is a pretty stunning statistic for a group of stocks which are exceeding $18 trillion right now.
04:22And you highlighted in your most recent research, though, you were looking at one chart that just shows the surprises, right, of big tech versus the other stocks in the S&P 500.
04:31And we've talked about this concept before, but is that part of what supports the consistent bid in big tech?
04:37It's not only do they surprise, of course, they surprise more than the rest of the market, right?
04:42That's part of the story.
04:44But I think the tech story is very, very interesting.
04:47And we've spent a lot of time thinking about it.
04:50So, for example, the standard refrain and the concern of people that they're very expensive, right?
04:54So on an absolute basis, that is true.
04:56But if you look at the trend over the last two years, their multiples actually have been steadily declining and moderating.
05:02On the flip side, their earnings have remained quite strong.
05:05So they're moderated from extremely high levels.
05:08They were printing in the 60s, in the 40s percentage growth, now to in the high 20s and 30s.
05:14So what's happening is they continue to grow into their multiples.
05:18And the street has been consistently underestimating their earnings power.
05:22That's why quarter after quarter, we have been a lot more positive on them.
05:27And I think since Q4 of 22, when they had bottomed, they were just recovering, that's when we went very positive on that.
05:35So that story is very intact.
05:37And what's even more interesting in that segment of the market is in people pointing to this dichotomy between them laying off people and yet posting great numbers.
05:48And part of the reason is while the rest of the economy is waiting for AI's impact to be felt in a more tangible manner, through either increases in productivity or how it affects margins or top line, big tech is already implementing it in their core businesses.
06:05In other words, what that tells us is that if you are a tech native business or you're a tech-centric business, chances are you're already seeing the impact of that.
06:15And the reason is quite simple, because one thing we know, based on what companies have told us, which are very tech-centric, the software productivity has improved 30 to 40%.
06:24So that is literally taking out layers of software costs out of your business.
06:29And if your business is centered around that, it makes a huge difference, right?
06:34So, you know, you are right now in the middle of two mega trends.
06:38We were already in a transition towards cloud.
06:42On top of that, you have AI.
06:44So this potent combination is going to be with us for the foreseeable future, and it's happening faster than the previous cycles.
06:51And you mentioned something interesting there, and Steve, I want to get your take on this in terms of earnings season broadly.
06:56We've seen bigger moves for stocks, whether they miss or beat or split, right?
07:02Stocks are moving more than normal.
07:04What does that tell you about where the market's at right now and kind of the market mood?
07:08And I don't know if there's any specific ones you've sort of been watching that have stuck out to you.
07:12Well, actually, I happened to do some work on this just the other day.
07:15And basically, you know, I was looking at it not so much from Vendor's point of view of were the numbers better?
07:21It was were the reactions better?
07:23Sure. So again, with about two-thirds of the S&P 500 by weight reporting, more stock, it was like 48% by weight were down as opposed to up.
07:34And that's been consistent.
07:35So in general, it's telling me that the markets have priced in a lot, but they love surprises.
07:41So, you know, Meta, Microsoft, they love them because when you have this giant company that can surprise on the upside, they love it.
07:48Although Alphabet's surprisingly upside, and we got, what, a percent out of it?
07:52So I think in general, you know, the smaller components of the S&P 500, which, by the way, is extraordinarily top-heavy.
08:01So, you know, there's 400 or so components that have like 0.1% or less, give or take, 0.2% or less, give or take.
08:08And there you saw some more extreme moves on those because I think just the ability to surprise was greater because there's less focus upon them.
08:17There's less, you know, when I look at the big companies, the options markets priced in the moves dramatically for all these.
08:25And some of these smaller companies, there's just less money priced in, so there's more room for surprise.
08:29And the other thing that's been interesting, too, has just been the impact of, I've sort of been tracking this on a case-by-case basis,
08:35but the rally you've seen in the stock off the bottom and then how it sort of trades right after, right?
08:40You think AMD comes out about in-line print.
08:43I don't think there was a ton to really hammer them for, but the stock fell 9%.
08:48It had been up 45% going into the report, and so I think you're just seeing maybe investors be a little bit more scrutinizing at this point in the rally.
08:56We're near record highs.
08:57I think in some cases we've outkicked the coverage, so to speak.
08:59And so that's what happened with AMD.
09:02But then considering the market's love of buying dips, can't miss a dip and can't miss a rally that's to be chased, AMD got much of it back today.
09:10So, you know, again, the market is just looking for these buyable dips and jumping in.
09:15And last, over the past week prior to Tuesday was the last time I looked at the numbers,
09:20the most bought stocks on our platform were UNH and NVO on a net basis.
09:27So they-
09:28UnitedHealthcare's down 50% this year or something like that?
09:30And it was just after their latest reports.
09:33Yeah.
09:33And so, you know, I do have to wonder when, you know, trying to buy a dip becomes trying to catch a falling knife.
09:39But it's very emblematic of what we see.
09:42So even the- so the- the dips are getting bought very quickly, even if there are disappointments in many cases.
09:47And Venu, let's round this out with sort of your macro outlook into the end of the year and maybe, I don't know, beyond that, right?
09:53Yeah.
09:53The next 12 months.
09:54Do you think this can continue, this sort of vibe that we're having in the market?
09:57I think it can, but I think there's a nuance to that.
10:01In the short term, we wouldn't be surprised if there's some choppiness.
10:04Because one of our concerns has been that, you know, the market has got too optimistic and has moved up too fast since bottoming in the post-Liberation Day announcement.
10:15And I think if you look at other parts of the market, obviously, you know, our team does equity-linked strategies.
10:22So one of the things we have created, and I think we discussed it once in the past, something called the Equity Euphoria Index.
10:29And the idea was to look at liquid options market and to try and see what proportion of a fairly large universe of 1,000 stocks are exhibiting euphoric behavior.
10:41And till recently, till the NFP print, that number was at 13%.
10:46And that was more than double the longer-term average.
10:50And we're talking about the averages going back to the 90s.
10:52So there's a significant portion of the market in which the level of optimism is running very high, which sort of concerns us.
11:02And then see what happened with the NFP print game.
11:04In other words, the market became less and less macro-sensitive.
11:09And then all of a sudden, it became very, right?
11:11So if you look at what the options market for pricing going into the NFP was moves broadly and consistent with long-term averages.
11:19In other words, no big surprise.
11:21Well, you got a massive surprise on the downside.
11:24And so things have moved.
11:26So one of the concerns I have is we are a fully valued market.
11:30We are not seeing it's rich.
11:32In fact, the part of the market outside the S&P is where we have more concern because that is where the earnings growth is actually running weaker than long-term averages.
11:42Going into the sprint, numbers were cut more aggressively than long-term numbers,
11:46though they were not cut bad enough to mirror what you typically see in a shallow recession as well.
11:53But I think the second leg to it, why we remain optimistic, is that I almost feel that this year has been completely dominated and taken over by the scale of policy uncertainty.
12:04On top of that, you've got geopolitical risk, which cropped up again.
12:08Now you're past both tariff uncertainty and geopolitical uncertainty.
12:14And as we enter next year, you know, in a world in which we expect economic growth to moderate but remain better than this year,
12:21where consumption improves what is worse off than pre-pandemic averages,
12:27and where inflation sort of eases into the right direction but remains sticky.
12:34In other words, higher than what the Fed expects.
12:37In such an environment, we still estimate earnings will be up 9% next year.
12:42In other words, accelerating from where we are this year.
12:44And if you look at consensus, that's looking at 13% to 15%.
12:48I think that's way too optimistic.
12:51But, you know, for all the chaos, the underlying fundamentals are decent.
12:56The one big sort of uncertainty, which we said, this is the first quarter we said,
13:02where you'll start seeing initial tangible signs of tariff impact.
13:06Right.
13:07And where will you feel it more?
13:09You know, we felt that that is going to be visible in the consumer-facing segments.
13:13Sure.
13:14Which is discretionary, staples, areas like that.
13:17And some other areas, like industrials, for example, where.
13:21And so we're already collecting data.
13:22We're doing work on that.
13:24Looks like industrials are able to handle it better, at least in the short term.
13:28But the consumer-facing segments are already facing trouble.
13:30So some of them are already in a pickle because they raised prices enormously after COVID,
13:37when COVID was a one-time opportunity to raise prices without fear of a competitive reaction.
13:43Right.
13:43So that fattened your bottom line.
13:45Companies are in great shape.
13:46But now you're running against demand inelasticity or the elasticity of demand.
13:52Right.
13:52And so if you thought it was becoming more inelastic, that's not the case.
13:57Because the consumer is on the margin under pressure depending on what cohort you're looking at.
14:04The middle and the higher income are doing fine.
14:06That's why those consumption patterns are great.
14:08But as you go lower, then they are making choices.
14:13Because in aggregate, if you think about it, prices have increased 30%, 40% in aggregate after COVID.
14:20Right?
14:21Your wages haven't increased at the same pace.
14:23So even though inflation is coming down, the accumulated impact of price increases does bite.
14:30Home prices still are up 30%, 40%, even as you said, even as we talk about the housing market being sort of weak right now.
14:38So I think a lot of post-COVID normalization and the impact of some of the massive policy changes we are undertaking.
14:45And the fact that outside of financials and tech, right now, most sectors are actually earning less than the long-term averages.
14:56And three sectors, in fact, I think it is materials, it is utilities, it is energy.
15:01They're going to see earnings contract.
15:03A trend we've got to keep watching.
15:04Right?
15:05Yeah.
15:05So this is not as clean as it seems.
15:09Yeah.
15:09But when you keep talking about aggregate, aggregate, that's why tech is so important.
15:14It keeps bailing out the market.
15:17And it remains on a very strong.
15:19But you wonder that when do the law of large numbers start kicking in at these levels?
15:25But are we going into a world which will become highly, highly concentrated in which, you know, the earnings power and the breadth of businesses is truly massive and very difficult to dislodge?
15:40It's a trend we're going to keep watching, Ben.
15:42We've got to leave it there.
15:43I appreciate you coming in studio today.
15:44Thank you.
15:45Yeah.
15:46An important story we've been following that's breaking to tell you about.
15:49President Trump posted he's made a decision on that vacancy on the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors.
15:54Let's get straight to our Fed correspondent, Jennifer Schomburger, for the latest, Jen.
15:58Josh, President Trump has nominated Council of Economic Advisors Chairman Stephen Mirren to replace outgoing Fed Governor Adriana Kugler on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
16:10Mirren will hold that seat, however, for just a few months until that term is slated to end on January 31st.
16:17The president is continuing to look for someone to replace that position for a full 14-year term that would follow after January 31st.
16:28The president posting on Truth Social moments ago that, quote,
16:32In the meantime, we will continue to search for a permanent replacement.
16:36He has been with me from the beginning of my second term, and his expertise in the world of economics is unparalleled.
16:45He will do an outstanding job.
16:49Mirren served as an advisor to former Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin under President Trump's first term.
16:57He was also a senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital Management and holds a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University.
17:04This coming after Fed Governor Kugler unexpectedly announced last week that she will resign from the Fed Board of Governors, effective this Friday, August 8th.
17:16Again, that term not set to expire until January 31st.
17:21Kugler expected to return to Georgetown University as a professor.
17:26Now, Mirren will still need to be confirmed by the Senate, which is currently on August recess.
17:32So it remains to be seen whether he will be able to be shepherded through the nomination process and confirmed by the time of the September FOMC meeting on September 17th.
17:45It would have to be pretty swift.
17:47But if anyone could pull it off, perhaps Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott could do that.
17:52Now, again, Mirren is just looking to be a short-term holdover.
17:56So this does not look like it will be the president's pick for the next Federal Reserve chair to replace Chair Powell.
18:03The president has said he has narrowed that list down to three people, including Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett.
18:11But, Josh, the news today right now is that Stephen Mirren is going to be nominated to replace outgoing Fed Governor Adriana Kugler to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
18:21A developing story.
18:23Well, keep watching.
18:23Appreciate you bringing that to us, Jen.
18:24Gilead reporting second quarter earnings just moments ago.
18:29Here to break down the report is Yahoo Finance senior health reporter Anjali Kimlani.
18:33Anjali, what's going on?
18:34That's right, Josh.
18:34We got news out from Gilead.
18:36They did beat on their earnings, both on earnings per share as well as on revenues compared to what Wall Street expected.
18:44Not by much on the revenue side.
18:47But that's something to keep an eye on because they did also raise guidance on these results, saying the first half of the year was pretty good.
18:54Both. I got a chance to speak to the CEO, Dan O'Day, and he was pretty bullish on the company.
18:59And moving forward, all areas of the business, including HIV, where they are the lead, continuing to grow.
19:07Despite facing patent cliffs, we know that many companies are facing that, including Gilead.
19:12But they have been making a number of deals.
19:14I did also talk to him about the deal making and about China in particular.
19:19That's something that has been sort of a topic of conversation, if you will, for many pharma companies.
19:24And he said, quote, the level of science in China is going up and the level of new targets that are available is going up.
19:29So deal making in China is going up, and that is for Gilead, as well as across the board for a number of companies.
19:36And despite, you know, that patent cliff that I was talking about, they seem pretty confident that they'll be able to backfill the hole in revenue expected from that drop off with whatever deals are coming in.
19:48Andre, we also got you by Lilly Earnings earlier this morning.
19:51That stock got crushed today during the session.
19:53What did you see there, and how does that sort of affect its competition with Novo Nordis and the space as a whole?
19:58Yeah, surprisingly, that drop, as you can see on your screen, down 14% at close today.
20:03And that is one of the bigger drops we've seen for the company.
20:07We know that it was, you know, a favorite to kind of be the first $1 trillion healthcare company.
20:11But that seems to be a distant dream now.
20:13And this is not based off of earnings.
20:15Earnings came in much stronger than expected, more than a billion, almost a billion more in sales than what Wall Street anticipated based off of those GLP-1 sales.
20:24But the next generation, it is what is hammering it right now.
20:27And now the pill and the results from a late-stage trial are what pressured the stock today.
20:33And that is really going to favor Novo Nordisk, which has been suffering.
20:37It has been losing ground to Eli Lilly with its injectables.
20:42And now with these results, Novo Nordisk could actually end up taking the lead.
20:47We'll just have to see how that pans out with the two companies both having a pill available ready for FDA approval sometime in the next year.
20:55So that really heats up the competition again in a time where sort of Eli Lilly was expected to kind of take the lead and take the market altogether.
21:04Something will continue to be following.
21:05Appreciate you bringing that to us, Anjali.
21:09Pagaya reporting a beat on earnings and revenue for the second quarter.
21:12The fintech company highlighting record performance across its key metrics while lifting its full-year guidance.
21:17The better-than-expected results come as shares enjoy gains of over 200% so far this year.
21:23For a closer look at the company's growth, let's welcome in Pagaya CEO and founder, Gal Krubner.
21:28Gal, just talk to me about the year that you've been having, the quarter you've just had, the growth story at this point.
21:35What do you think has been getting the market so excited about what you guys are doing right now?
21:38So thank you very much for having me today, Josh.
21:42Put it simple, I think just it was a moment that everything came together.
21:46From people understanding what we're doing, which we'll talk in a second about,
21:49from moving to gap net income for two consecutive quarters,
21:54from the 30% year-over-year growth that we have shown.
21:57And really the market's starting to appreciate the concept of us helping banks and lenders
22:03to be able to approve more consumers, especially in days like this,
22:07especially when tariffs are going on and the macro could be in different stages.
22:11It is a very strong and powerful value proposition.
22:15And there's an AI part of your story, too.
22:18How are you utilizing artificial intelligence to sort of drive these results?
22:21So as you know, everything these days is AI, right?
22:24We started that much, much earlier, call it in 2016.
22:27But we have developed very strong tools to be able to look through in the data of the consumer that exists in the U.S.
22:35and to be able to provide credit with the power of AI, with the unique data that we are capturing through a network
22:43that we have of 31 different lenders, and to find many, many borrowers that are being overlooked
22:49by the traditional financial system, and therefore not getting the credit that they need and the credit they deserve.
22:56And talk to me about the scale of that, then.
22:58Are we still in some version of early days, then, as that sort of continues to grow?
23:02So you always can look on it from two sides, right?
23:05From where we started, it's in a very, very high scale.
23:08We're originating something like $10 billion a year.
23:10We provide it to over 2.5 million people.
23:14Loans so far, we are providing loans both on the personal loan, on auto loans,
23:19to help people buy cars, on point of sale, to help them buy different things on the merchants.
23:25But at the same time, where it can go is much, much bigger.
23:28We are in the belief that actually every bank, every lender should have a version of extended platform,
23:34a version of an off-balance sheet capabilities.
23:37And what is very unique in Pagaya is that with a simple API that is connected to that bank,
23:43we are allowing them to have that type of capabilities.
23:46And that's the unique piece about what we do.
23:47One thing we've been talking about really all day on the show here with Steve is the different macro headwinds that are in play right now
23:54and how that's sort of impacting things.
23:55You just mentioned auto loans.
23:56You think about all the tariffs.
23:57Are people going to buy less cars?
23:59How does that impact your business if there is a broader economic slowdown because of all the different policies?
24:06So, especially in these days, we are becoming even more important because you think about in the situation of higher tariffs
24:12or people that are having a hard time getting the loans, then the banks having a harder time to lend to them.
24:18And therefore, the connectivity to Pagaya and to Pagaya network is a good ability for them to fulfill that credit demand
24:26from these borrowers in places that otherwise they couldn't have been able to do it.
24:32And how we do it?
24:33With AI and with the technology.
24:35So, the ability to utilize a lot of data and therefore to spot the people that actually should get credit
24:42even when tariffs are higher, even when the day is a little bit harder, and there are millions of them,
24:47that's what the system of Pagaya brings to the front and center of the needs of the banks to know who to give this credit to.
24:56And Gal, I'm curious when you think about sort of the trajectory over the next year or two here.
25:02I mean, what are you most excited about, again, to that growth story that you're sort of watching right now,
25:08that you're excited about come, you know, we're almost in 2026, right?
25:11We're planning for 2026.
25:12Definitely.
25:12So, I think one of the biggest important points of today earning was really speaking about the guidance.
25:17And we increased our guidance from a midpoint of 20, 25 million dollars to actually something closer to 60.
25:25So, you can imagine how big of a bump it is.
25:27And this is a good, I would say, travel of direction for what hopefully will happen in 2026 as we are continuing to build scale,
25:37we're lending more lenders, and we are in a very unique set of time in the momentum of our business
25:44where more and more banks, such as SoFi, Lending Club, LA Bank, U.S. Bank, that are already working with us,
25:51many more are starting to recognize the power of that network, and therefore approaching us to start to be able to integrate into that.
25:59So, for us, the future is bright.
26:02For us, we are doubling down on execution and being very focused on that.
26:05And hopefully, the gap net income and the profitability of the company is only going to get higher and higher from here.
26:13Gal, appreciate you joining us in studio.
26:14We've got to leave it there.
26:15Thank you so much.
26:17That'll do it for today's Market Domination Overtime.
26:19Steve Sosnick, thank you so much for joining me today.
26:22We really appreciate it.
26:23And on the other side of the break, it's Asking for a Trend.
26:26Stay tuned.
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