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00:00as this, U.S. officials say the Trump administration can use the military to go

00:05after Latin American drug gangs that have been designated as global terrorist organizations and

00:11has quietly ordered the Pentagon to prepare options for it. The order signed by Trump

00:17reportedly provides an official basis for direct military operations at sea and on foreign soil

00:23against cartels. This would likely mean in the Gulf of Mexico and potentially within Mexico itself,

00:29there's other South American countries that might be worth eyeballing as well.

00:33Mexican President Claudia Scheinbaum saying yesterday, flat out, I'll read one of her quotes,

00:39she's rejecting this idea plainly. She says, the United States is not going to come to Mexico with

00:44the military. We cooperate, we collaborate, but there is not going to be an invasion. That is

00:50ruled out, absolutely ruled out, she was quoted as saying yesterday. Hal Kempfer is still here,

00:55standing by. Hal, what are the chances of the U.S. performing military operations in Mexico?

01:01Well, it's always a possibility, but I got to tell you, Austin, the problems with that

01:06are legion, and the lawyers would look at this and go, oh my gosh. One of the problems is that

01:12obviously you're talking with sovereign territory. This is another sovereign country, it's Mexico,

01:17and the president of Mexico has made it very clear, no, U.S. troops are not welcome. Now,

01:21what I will say is that over the decades of the war on drugs, we have worked very closely with our

01:27Mexican counterparts. There are U.S. law enforcement that are permanently stationed down in Mexico working

01:33with their Mexican counterparts. We've done a lot of stuff with intelligence sharing. We've done a lot

01:37of stuff with, you know, cooperation, coordination of planning, going after various drug cartels and

01:44drug cartel kingpins. We've had a lot of cooperation working with them on the border to make the border a

01:51lot more secure. So there's been a lot of cooperation across the board, but if you talk

01:56about doing something where you're sending troops down there on special operations, well, you're

02:00starting to kind of hint at something that sounds like when we went after Osama bin Laden in Pakistan.

02:08You know, Pakistan, you know, an ally, if you will, a country we work with, but we didn't tell them

02:13that we were going in there to take out Osama bin Laden. And of course, the fear was that

02:17that if we said that the intelligence would get to bin Laden and he'd get moved and nothing would

02:23have happened. And that's part of the issue that we have in Mexico that, look, President

02:29Sheinbaum would, or Sheinbaum would, wish he would be first to admit that there's a lot of corruption

02:35within the Mexican government. The cartels have a lot of, a lot of money to buy things. They also

02:42have a kind of a policy, which is either you work with us or we may, we, you know, they'll go after

02:48your, they're, they'll not go after the, just the officials, they'll go after their families as well.

02:53So it's a very coercive thing. So they have their tentacles in a lot of places and intelligence,

02:57one of the easier, easier things that they can share. And so that is one of the reasons that we

03:03get frustrated sometimes. And there certainly is a desire to do things more autonomously, particularly

03:07when we know that there's a, a target, a kingpin, if you will, that we could go on and get, we have

03:12the means to get it. It's just the legal parameters by which it is. So there's a temptation to do

03:18something. And that's what you're saying. By the way, it ain't just, it isn't just Mexico. All right.

03:23There are Mexican, there are drug cartels throughout Central and South America. You'll find them in

03:29various Central American countries. You know, Venezuela is a kind of a narco state anymore. So we may,

03:35you know, the way this was framed, it kind of opened up, you know, certainly Venezuela was one

03:40of my thoughts. Another place that kind of opened up as a more distant thought is you may notice we

03:45have a little bit of tension with Brazil and there are drug cartels, very violent cartels or, you know,

03:54hyper gangs, if you will, fourth generation gangs or third generation gangs, I should say, that are

04:00down there that we may be looking at as well. So it may be more than just Mexico. It may be looking

04:07much more broadly as Central and South America. About 525 in the nation's capital. The New York

04:15Times reported that U.S. military officials have started drawing up plans for how the military could

04:21target cartels. How could unilateral strikes against those groups raise those legal issues that you're

04:28discussing? They'll likely be targeting people who pose an imminent threat if they were to carry

04:32something out. But what if people are killed who don't pose an imminent threat? Is that where the

04:38legal challenges come from that you're discussing? That's actually a huge problem is, and it's tough

04:43to, you know, contain collateral damage, particularly if you're doing something like a strike mission where

04:49you're going and blowing something up. You know, there's that movie, Clear and Present Danger that you may

04:54recall, that was, you know, one of the Jack Ryan movies. And they go on to strike a big kingpin meeting

05:01of the drug cartel. And of course, as the missiles coming in, you see children come running out of the

05:07house and stuff. Well, that is a real world thing. That problem of hitting a strike mission, you know,

05:13even when you have certainty that the bad guys you want to get are there, you're not sure about

05:17everybody else around them. And you're not sure that something could go astray and you end up

05:21killing innocent people. And in that case, you end up with a significant problem, because technically

05:26what you've done is could be considered by that country as an act of war. Now, I don't think anybody

05:33sees any countries in Central America, or even South America, successfully prosecuting a war against the

05:41U.S. But in terms of international law, doing stuff like that is can it could be considered by that

05:48country to be an act of war? What there would have to be, and this is something the U.S. Southern

05:53Command out of Miami would be working on, and there'd be a lot of lawyers involved, would be building

05:59some sort of structure of memorandums of agreement with these countries that would allow us to move

06:07faster. And there is an architecture to do something like this. Joint Interagency Task Force South down in

06:13Key West Florida has been working with all of these countries for a very long time on intelligence

06:20sharing, intelligence collection, and coordinating missions to intercept drugs coming into the United

06:28States from all over Central South America, the Caribbean, the whole thing, even out into the

06:33Pacific. So there is a model for this type of cooperation. It has not included things like doing

06:40strike missions, special operations missions, something like that. But if there was a legal

06:45framework in place, if we could, you know, potentially containerize the information so that it wouldn't get

06:52leaked to potential folks in that country that could leak it then to the cartels themselves, if there was some

06:59framework, potentially, something could be done. But all these respective leaders of these countries would all have to

07:07sign off on it. It's not something they would do at this level. It's something you have to do at the

07:12highest levels.

07:13So, one thing that occurred to me when I was reading this headline, and you kind of just touched on it,

07:20is there precedent for something like this? Has our military targeted cartels on foreign soil?

07:26Well, we haven't targeted, not without some sort of host nation cooperation, all right? We've done a lot

07:36of things throughout Central and South America. And, you know, I used to be stationed down in Panama,

07:43and we had military forces in Panama, and we were doing things all over Central and South America,

07:51and still, we're very active in the region, but it's done with cooperation with those host nations.

07:57This alludes to doing something that would be a, that would be, you know, simply a U.S. operation, if you will,

08:06us using our forces and capabilities. And if it does it without the host nation's acquiescence, then that could be

08:14considered a hostile act. It could be considered an act of war. And so, therefore, they're going to have to go in,

08:20if we're going to do this, we're going to have to get a lot of host nation agreement up front that allows

08:28for some ability to coordinate these actions without compromising whatever the plans are,

08:37and that will be very difficult. And, of course, that would be a desired end state by many to say,

08:42look, we can go in there, we see where this, you know, this leader of this Mexican drug cartel is located,

08:49and that we could coordinate something even with our, you know, our Mexican counterparts, for example.

08:56We could coordinate something without tipping our hand that this thing is underway. That is theoretically

09:03possible. It would be a huge jump in what we're doing now. But I will say this, we do some very

09:10interesting stuff working with the various countries to intercept loads of narcotics coming up,

09:16whether on ships or planes or whatever. And we've been very successful in that across the board.

09:23And that's a huge change from where we were, say, in the late 80s and early 90s. And so, there is a

09:30framework for that to be done. This is a different sort of thing. I should mention, though, the political

09:36factor is pretty big. The U.S. has done things, you know, we, this is a, this is our sphere of influence,

09:42so to speak. We have put military forces in Mexico and Nicaragua and Haiti, and we have had a military

09:50presence out there for some time. And it is not a, it's not something that's necessarily, they like to

09:56remember in a fond way. And, you know, we, Marine Corps him, the halls of Montezuma, well, that's Mexico

10:03City. All right. You know, Pancho Villa, we chased him around for years. Not only did we not catch him,

10:09but as a result of that, in Mexican politics, he became the president of Mexico. So, there are those

10:15second, third order effects that we have to consider that's the political dimension.

10:20As soon as this story came out, I was being asked by viewers about this one. This is something that a

10:25lot of people are interested in, and it's something that we're going to be tracking closely in the days,

10:29weeks, and months ahead. Hal is going to stand by for one more segment. We, of course, watched

10:37yesterday, this moment, as we saw the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan shaking hands, Trump

10:42wrapping his hands around their hands as well. We're going to be discussing the peace deal that

10:47was signed, the implications of it, and much more. Hal sticking by with us for another segment.

10:52We're back in two minutes.

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