00:00China's exports beat expectations again in July as companies raced to ship goods to Southeast Asia and other regions.
00:07Overall exports were up 7.2% in July from the same month last year,
00:12but China's exports directly to the United States were down by more than a fifth in July.
00:18Exports of semiconductors continued their strong performance.
00:21The export value in July rose by 29% from the previous year and increased by more than 3% on the previous month.
00:29Steel exports rose 1.7% month on month in July,
00:33pushing them to the highest level since 1990 in the first seven months of the year.
00:38At ratings agency, S&P Global has maintained China's sovereign credit rating and given it a stable outlook.
00:45In the second half of the year, China is set to focus on stabilizing employment while promoting both domestic and international trade.
00:53The Ministry of Finance aims to successfully achieve the annual economic goals
00:57and conclude the 14th five-year plan.
01:00Zhang Jiuwei is president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
01:04In the past six, seven months, even though there's a lot of uncertainty related to tariffs,
01:11I think a lot of the firms in China as well as in other countries in the U.S. as well,
01:18they managed to reallocate their supply chains or rearrange their trade arrangement to control this risk of tariff.
01:28And they managed, for instance, some of the multinational companies, you know, relocated their production chains into Vietnam
01:37and sourced some of the parts from China.
01:40And, you know, through this kind of arrangement, they actually managed to mitigate the shock from the tariff.
01:46So, total export number actually turns out to be quite good.
01:49When you pick out the United States, for example, obviously tariffs in play there,
01:53the numbers are 21.7% down year on year in July.
01:58How much is that hurting China's broader trade outlook?
02:01Yeah, it hasn't really had a very visible shock on China's total trade number.
02:09I mean, so far this year, actually, trade has been one of the pillars for China's economic growth,
02:16actually outperforming the other sectors.
02:19And I think the export to U.S. certainly is slow, but that's not really a surprise to the firms, right?
02:27For both importers and exporters, they kind of saw that coming.
02:30And, you know, this is not the first round of trade war.
02:35I mean, four or five years ago, the firms already went through this kind of experience.
02:40So, they kind of prepared themselves, relocated their supply chains.
02:46And at the same time, their exports from other countries improved quite a lot.
02:50The total number actually didn't really drop that much.
02:53How useful would it be, though, to put an end to this uncertainty and actually come up with a U.S.-China trade deal?
03:00Yeah, I think, you know, this ongoing negotiation really helps.
03:06So, I think that a lot of the firms, both in China and in the U.S., are no longer that worried as they were, say, you know, two, three months ago.
03:17I know there's a deadline coming these months, but I think, you know, people are not really expecting this deadline to kick in.
03:25And probably it will be extended another three months.
03:30So, I think a lot of the firms already, you know, have that in mind and also they have rearranged their production globally already.
03:40So, I don't think this is a very big issue on people's mind.
03:44So, we have seen an overall rise in China's export numbers, exports to BRI countries in particular, now more than 50% of that.
03:53What do you make of those numbers?
03:56Yeah, I mean, you know, if you take a longer horizon, I mean, in the past, you know, five years, ten years, this share has been rising, particularly to ASEAN countries.
04:06I would say Vietnam is one example, right, so some of these production chains, production bases have already been relocated.
04:13I think that trend probably will continue, and I think the trade ties between China and a lot of these emerging market countries, developing countries, are getting deeper.
04:26Because a lot of the firms, the Chinese exporters, are now trying to really expand into new markets, including, you know, countries like Latin America.
04:34So, I think there's a lot of potential going forward.
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