00:00Well, let's talk now to Daniela Haythorn, who's Senior Market Analyst at online trading platform Capital.com.
00:06Good to see you, Daniela. Thank you for joining us.
00:09So, as we're hearing there, some certainty emerging around US tariffs, plenty more to nail down, of course.
00:14But how is all this affecting the markets globally?
00:18Thank you for having me.
00:20Yeah, it's interesting because we are seeing a little bit of uncertainty priced into the market.
00:26But we have come a long way from where we were back in April.
00:29Now, we have to remember that tariffs have been pushed back several times or at least a grace period with negotiations.
00:35And that helped markets regain a lot of confidence.
00:38We've seen specifically US equity markets push to new all-time highs for several weeks now.
00:43We have come to a little bit of an inflection point now where we are at a time where markets are a little bit overbought
00:49and there's maybe a lack of potential to move higher given the current conditions.
00:54And, of course, the latest data, the jobs data on Friday, did precipitate a little bit of reversal in markets.
01:00But already yesterday and today throughout the European session, we have seen US stocks once again find some strength to move higher.
01:09So, we do have some resilience in the stock market.
01:11I do think a lot of this is coming from several factors.
01:16One being the earnings season, which has remained pretty robust, specifically in some sectors of the economy.
01:21But also now expectation that the Fed is going to lower rates as soon as September.
01:27And that, of course, is positive for the stock market.
01:30Well, you mentioned earnings season.
01:32Let's talk about that.
01:33Which companies are moving markets today?
01:34Interestingly, we have one which many investors might not have thought about before or, let's say, in the last few months.
01:43But Opendoor is actually reporting earnings this afternoon, so after the close in the US.
01:48And it's been one of the key drivers of the latest meme stock frenzy.
01:52So, it's going to be interesting to see how markets respond to this, how they respond to actual hard data.
01:58Because a lot of the move has been once again brought on by online chatter and speculation about the stock being undervalued and how much potential it has.
02:06Whereas, realistically, the data has shown disappointing data, disappointing earnings and declines in the last two years and the start of 2025.
02:15So, now is the time to show and to prove whether it's actually a turnaround in the stock.
02:19And I think investors are actually going to place quite a lot of interest on this earnings announcement because of the volatility we've seen on some of these meme stocks in the last few weeks.
02:29I wanted to ask you about Chinese stocks.
02:31We heard earlier in the program some strong service numbers.
02:35How positive a sign is that, do you think?
02:38I think it's definitely a sign.
02:40It's definitely a step in the right direction.
02:42I think we've seen a lot of concerns in the last 24 months, let's say, about China being one of the powerhouses of consumer demand.
02:50So, the PMI data coming in better than expected is obviously good for sentiment.
02:55And we have seen some robust figures from China in the last few weeks.
02:59We have seen that GDP data coming in strong and also some manufacturing data as well.
03:05But there are some pockets of concerns, one of them being consumer demand, retail sales actually underperforming in June.
03:12We also have deflationary pressures and we have also monetary policy from the central bank to watch out for.
03:18So, definitely some positivity coming out there.
03:20But also, trade tensions continue.
03:22We do have that August 12th deadline between the US and China.
03:26What's going to happen?
03:27We don't really have any clear indication that things are progressing accordingly.
03:31And therefore, we are potentially in for a little bit of a shock if the tariffs that were announced in April do actually come into effect.
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