00:00This is apropos. Taipei drew to a brief standstill earlier when air raid sirens forced residents off the streets and into underground shelters as part of Taiwan's annual civilian drills aimed at preparing the self-governed island for a potential Chinese invasion. It comes as regional tensions increase and amid doubts as to how the U.S. might respond in the event of an attack. Monte Francis has the details.
00:30Sirens rang out across Taipei on Thursday, and across the Taiwanese capital, the urgency seemed very real. With mass evacuations underway and first responders jumping to action, even harmless smoke poured out of this telecom building to simulate a drone attack. But in truth, it was all part of an annual drill to prepare the Taiwanese people for the potential of an attack by China.
00:57Taiwan's president, who took office last year, has been labeled by Beijing as a separatist, and he was on hand to explain why the drills were necessary.
01:08Threats from authoritarianism have never stopped. From military intimidation to internal infiltration and political warfare, all of this happens on a daily basis. Under such circumstances, we can only be prepared.
01:23Modern China has never ruled Taiwan, but claims the island as its own. Chinese President Xi Jinping has threatened to annex Taiwan by force, stepping up incursions by China's military in Taiwan's defense zone.
01:38Some residents of the Taiwanese capital said the drills drive home the real potential of a Chinese attack.
01:44The exercises make everyone more vigilant. And they raise the public's awareness. By conducting drills in advance, when the real enemy comes, or missiles arrive, we can quickly find places to take cover.
01:59But not everyone was convinced.
02:02I feel that the exercises probably won't be much help. If a wall really breaks out in Taiwan, the first thing to be destroyed would definitely be the most basic infrastructure, like power plants. Once those are taken out, Taiwan would almost certainly collapse.
02:17The drills happened in conjunction with 10 days of military exercises in Taiwan, which end on Friday.
02:26To discuss the wider implications, we're joined now by international relations analyst Alessio Patelano, professor in East Asian Warfare and Strategy at King's College London.
02:38Thanks so much for being with us on the program. These civilian drills, they happen in Taiwan each year.
02:44We heard a little bit about what they're aimed at in that report. Tell us, is the risk of a Chinese attack becoming more real for people there?
02:55The increase in military activities around Taiwan certainly has brought to the centre of world attention something that over the last three to four years had become particularly clear in Taiwan.
03:11And that is that from the perspective of mainland, no option is off the table in principle.
03:18Therefore, the risk of different types of military action for coercion or indeed different forms of attack are considered to be a real possibility.
03:30In that sense, since 2023, we've seen that the annual military summer exercises, the Hong Kong exercise, has now evolved, changed to reflect that tension, to reflect that risk, and above all, honing the idea that whatever defences might be required from different types of military action,
03:54we'll have to see the Taiwanese population will have to see the Taiwanese population at the neurologic centre of it.
04:00And therefore, the civilian components of this are absolutely essential, not because an attack is imminent, but because of the importance of the psychological and cognitive preparation of society as a whole in case of different types of military actions were to actually be taken against the island.
04:20And what are Taiwan's biggest vulnerabilities, do you believe?
04:26Well, first and foremost, we're talking about a very considerable military differential.
04:32So in that sense, the capabilities that China has at its disposal placed towards and facing Taiwan are rather overwhelming, whether these long-range positions strike, whether it is the ability to isolate Taiwan as an island from external communication.
04:54And so you have different types of layers that present a variety of challenges, but at the same time, we have to be cognizant of the fact that Chinese political warfare, so actions to, if you want, weaken the social fabric of Taiwan,
05:14and make the idea of a return home, as the Chinese presented as inevitable, is just at the heart of this question as much as military capabilities.
05:27Yeah, and Taiwan, it imports the vast, vast majority of its energy, for example, most of it arriving by sea, Alessio.
05:35So could China simply debilitate the island by blocking these ships?
05:40It has, I believe, carried out drills with that in mind previously.
05:46I think you're making a very important point, which I think we can roughly sort of expand it to the entire Taiwan economy in principle,
05:55because Taiwan is not just about the energy imports, but also any exports, any other major imports to make the island's economic solvency continue to exist,
06:09depend on maritime access.
06:11So from that respect, we've seen over the last couple of years in particular a considerable increase on Chinese law enforcement activities
06:20to simulate the possibility to impose some sort of a quarantine that de facto would translate into Beijing ceasing a considerable amount of control over what gets in and out of Taiwan.
06:35Having said so, there is a flip side of that coin, because Taiwan is also one of the core neurologic centers of international economic output,
06:44microchips being a key element in this story.
06:47And therefore, any considerable or significant impact on the ability of the Taiwanese economy to remain solvent would not just stay to Taiwan.
06:57It would have inevitable impacts way beyond the boundaries of the islands.
07:02And the government, they're also expecting that Taiwan will need, you know, more kind of electricity,
07:07more resources to support the demand in AI infrastructure as well.
07:12So bearing all of that in mind, what kind of impact could any kind of move to blockade the island have on the global economy?
07:22Well, it depends very much how it is enacted.
07:26If it is tailored to limit the, if the neurologic center remains the Taiwanese population,
07:33then you would probably want to have it at the beginning as a very selective action
07:38aimed at weakening a perception in Taiwan that food security is at stake,
07:43that the ability to continue to run electricity around different major cities would remain intact and sustainable.
07:54That would probably have a more limited effect.
07:56And as we've seen with other crisis from the grain in the Black Sea to the goods through the Red Sea,
08:06why the international impact?
08:08You start seeing the consequences of it only a few weeks after that.
08:13So here the key question is,
08:15will the Taiwanese start to build up an element of resilience such as they can hold out for the necessary amount of time
08:27that would make the impact perceived as an international question and therefore prompt wider responses to it?
08:35Yeah, when it comes to the international question, all of this is happening
08:38when there are question marks being raised over how much support or what kind of policy Donald Trump might follow
08:46in the event that, you know, China were to make some move on the island?
08:51That's a very good question.
08:53And at the moment, of course, we have to try to understand what is the difference between Donald Trump
08:59dealing with international crisis in places like Ukraine or in the Middle East,
09:06as opposed to the type of Trump administration that would show up dealing with a potential crisis across the Strait of Taiwan.
09:15We've seen that there are pretty entrenched lines when it comes to the tension in terms of tariffs and trade
09:23between China and the United States.
09:26And we're certainly hearing a consistent noise coming out of the Defense Department,
09:32the State Department, as well as the combatant commands like Inder Paycom to suggest that there is a clear sense
09:40that in case of a major crisis of Taiwan, clearly, depending on how it sort of manifests itself,
09:47the Trump administration would have a relatively robust response to China.
09:51So we should assume that the type of Trump administration that we would see materializing
09:57in the case of a crisis around Taiwan
09:59would probably be different from the one that we're actually dealing with Russian forced-scale invasions in Ukraine.
10:10So, Alessio, when it comes to these drills that Taiwan is carrying out,
10:13are they also then about showing the rest of the world, essentially,
10:16that Taipei is serious about boosting its defense capabilities,
10:20that it is, in fact, able to defend itself?
10:25I think you're absolutely right.
10:27This is a very important point.
10:29It has a two, if you want, it has three fronts.
10:32One, communicating to Beijing that Taiwan is getting really serious about its own defenses.
10:38And any attempt at a lightning, if you want, attempt at taking over the islands
10:42would be met with severe resistance.
10:44That changes the game, is meant to change the game and the calculus in Beijing.
10:49But at the same time, there are other important audiences,
10:54the domestic audience in Taiwan, to convince them that that is possible,
10:57as well as an international audience.
10:59And here, first and foremost, the United States,
11:01to show the United States that Taiwan is committed to its own defense
11:04as a down payment for any expectation of support from the United States,
11:08as well as everybody else, to draw a light and attention to what is happening across the strait.
11:14So you are absolutely right.
11:16This is a multi-front, if you want, a set of objectives that revolve around this military exercise,
11:22not just the preparation of defense of the risk of a potential attack.
11:26And Alessio, just finally, what kind of, you know, US-made military systems are actually integrated into these drills
11:34and what kind of role do they play?
11:35So we know that at the beginning of the exercises, HIMARS were integrated into a part of the exercise.
11:47These are the type of batteries, missile batteries, that are designed to intercept long-range position strike attacks.
11:56And that's obviously going to be a really important piece of the multi-layered defense system
12:03that Taiwan is putting in place, because these are going to be essential to contest the airspace in any major crisis.
12:10And a contested airspace, it's a space in which no one, not even an overwhelming Chinese force, could possibly feel safe.
12:19Alessio, we'll have to leave it there for now.
12:21Thank you so much for being with us, though.
12:23That is Alessio Patelano, Professor in East Asian Warfare and Strategy at King's College, London.
