- 14/07/2025
Expect the unexpected in the transfer window. With Noni Madueke close to a transfer to Arsenal and Spurs in for West Ham's Mohammed Kudus - Matt breaks down just why these deals make sense! There's also Ballon d'Or talk about Ousmane Dembele and plenty more.
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00:00Today we're taking a deep dive into some unexpected transfers.
00:03There's a little bit of Ballon d'Or agenda pushing
00:06and on top of this, loads of social reaction from around the footballing world.
00:10I'm Matt from 442 and here's what's on our feed.
00:15Right, first things first, we're heading over to Reddit
00:17because that's where all good social videos start.
00:19We should be expecting the unexpected in the transfer market
00:23and I actually think there is some sense in that sentence.
00:26I'm going to use Nona Maduweki from Chelsea to Arsenal as an example.
00:30I heard about these rumours and I came across this Reddit thread from r slash Gunners
00:34where it's fair to say opinion is rather split down the middle.
00:38It's either a good move, apparently, because of some much-needed depth
00:42or a terrible move because when nobody really actually says why it's a terrible move
00:47there's just some really amusing phrases like
00:49that's a scam, this is a misuse of funds, which sounds overly political.
00:54And stop justifying this transfer.
00:57I actually am going to try and justify this transfer for Arsenal.
01:01First off, from Chelsea's point of view, it's a very smart deal.
01:05They're making a profit on the player they signed two years ago.
01:09He's been good for them.
01:10It's not a key component.
01:11It's not like they're selling Cole Palmer or anything.
01:14And they're also slimming down or attempting to slim down a rather large squad.
01:17So from Chelsea's point of view, perfect.
01:19Great for them.
01:19As for Arsenal, initially, like I said, I thought Madowiecki's good, right?
01:24But are they really going to go to their London rivals and find their next best player
01:28when he's not their best player?
01:30I wasn't so sure.
01:31However, although £50 million does seem like a lot,
01:35it covers a real pain point for them.
01:37And that is the strength in depth.
01:40Arsenal, like plenty of other teams last season, saw an injury crisis,
01:43which really affected, obviously, not only the numbers in their squad,
01:46but the way they played as well.
01:49And I actually think Madowiecki could really solve this problem.
01:52Saka was obviously injured for quite a long period of last season.
01:56And more than just having to replace him with another body,
01:59not having someone who directly replaces the way that Saka plays,
02:03that means that Arsenal play differently.
02:05I mean, look at all of these stats.
02:07All of the stats in this table show that in all competitions last season,
02:11with Saka, they were a lot better.
02:14And stuff like goals for, expected goals, chances created,
02:18total shot, shots on target, you get the picture.
02:20Without him, all of those numbers dropped.
02:23Their team, their scouting team, must have then gone and looked at,
02:27right, who are we going to replace Saka with?
02:28Should he get injured again?
02:29Or even if they just need to give him a rest in midweek.
02:32And it turns out, because I've done a little bit of digging as well,
02:35especially using Opta stats,
02:36that there is one player who is most like Saka in the whole of Europe.
02:40And that is Noni Maduweki.
02:42According to Opta Analyst's compare feature on their website,
02:46Noni Maduweki is 89.02%, just like Bukayo Saka,
02:51in terms of all the criteria they put forward.
02:54And it's actually unbelievable.
02:55With 11 goals and three assists last season,
02:57plenty of touches in the box, attempted dribbles and shots,
03:00and he doesn't really reduce the competencies
03:03that Arsenal face down the right-hand side.
03:05But the other thing on this chart that I think is really, really interesting
03:09is the defensive actions.
03:11They're fairly high.
03:12The possession one is also fairly high.
03:15This shows you that not only are these important things
03:18for an attacker in the modern game,
03:21but also that Mikel Arteta and his scouting department
03:23are really prioritizing this
03:25because defending from the front,
03:27because of the way they press is so important to them,
03:30they need an attacker who's going to do it as well.
03:32So actually, based on all of those stats,
03:36based on the fact that Maduweki is a lot like Saka,
03:38and regardless of which one's playing,
03:39they're going to have someone who fits the team
03:41as well as brings the same sort of things to the table.
03:44This is really good.
03:45This feels like a really good deal.
03:47Yes, 50 million feels like a lot of pounds,
03:50I was going to say, a lot of money.
03:53But then again, that's buying from the Premier League for you these days,
03:56especially buying from a London rival
03:58and another team who's in the Champions League too.
04:00Next up though, an interesting post I saw on Facebook.
04:04This is Mohamed Kudus moving to Spurs.
04:07Again, this is slightly unexpected.
04:10Or should it be?
04:11Should it be expected?
04:13Let's get this out of the way first off,
04:15because actually, it's really funny last season.
04:18Mohamed Kudus will have to walk into Spurs,
04:20if he does sign, on his first day
04:22and probably do a bit of an apology
04:24to Miki van der Veer and Pat Matassar.
04:26West Ham lost at Spurs
04:28and Kudus got sent off and a further five-game ban
04:31for, let's call it what it was,
04:32slapping and pushing
04:33Papsar and Van Venn in the face.
04:37So that was quite funny.
04:38I'm sure it'll be bridge under the water
04:39once he signs for the club,
04:40but he'll definitely have to have a word with them.
04:41Or rather, they'll have a word with him.
04:43But as for the actual transfer,
04:46it's a bit odd on the face of it.
04:48I'll give you that.
04:49West Ham weren't very good.
04:50Kudus didn't exactly shine like,
04:53I don't know, any sort of player of the season
04:54shouts or anything massively important
04:56the West Ham did last season.
04:58Kudus wasn't really on the face of it.
05:00However, there are a few numbers
05:02that do lead me to believe
05:03Kudus could be good for Spurs,
05:05but it may require a little bit of repositioning.
05:08Just look at the numbers of positions
05:10that he played in last season.
05:12One, two, three, four, five,
05:15not including sub because that counts all positions,
05:17six.
05:18Six different positions
05:19in the front line slash attacking third for Kudus.
05:22No wonder he couldn't put together any sort of form.
05:24He didn't even play more than 10 games
05:26in the Premier League in one given position.
05:28But yeah, and I get that there's a skill
05:30in being flexible and being a threat all over the pitch,
05:33but he didn't exactly shine.
05:34We're talking five goals and three assists
05:36in the Premier League.
05:37His XG is minus 1.9.
05:40His 75 shots resulted in just five goals,
05:43which is a really poor 6% conversion rate.
05:45So I don't really think there's a case to be made
05:47for Kudus coming in and being a centre forward,
05:49even being a backup centre forward.
05:51So the second option is what about a winger?
05:54At West Ham last year,
05:56he had the most successful passes in the final third,
05:59the second most successful passes in open play,
06:01the second most successful dribbles
06:02and progressive dribbles,
06:05the highest rate of successful crosses.
06:07Sounds good.
06:09Not exactly.
06:10There's a little bit more behind the data
06:11than this suggests.
06:13The most successful crossing rate
06:15was actually only one in four.
06:17And for all his ball carrying last year
06:19and progressive dribbles,
06:20he ended up with 26 shots,
06:2214 chances made,
06:23but of those,
06:24zero goals and zero assists.
06:27The reason those stats are so damning
06:29is that to be a winger in a Thomas Frank system,
06:31you have to be scoring.
06:33Brian Obromo is the perfect example of this.
06:35Last year, right winger,
06:3720 Premier League goals.
06:40Yeah, if Kudus is going to come into this team
06:42and be the right winger,
06:43he's going to have to do exactly what he hasn't been doing
06:46for the last few years at West Ham,
06:47which is getting into dangerous positions
06:50and providing goals and assists on a regular basis.
06:53This leads me to another conclusion.
06:56The Kudus might be best
06:58in that central attacking midfield role for Spurs.
07:02Last season,
07:03when it came to Ange Ball at Spurs,
07:05and I guess you could say
07:06that they were pretty bad all round,
07:08but specifically in the midfield,
07:10Spurs were terrible on the transition,
07:12both defensively and offensively.
07:14They failed to hold on to the ball.
07:17They lacked the ability to beat a man
07:18in one-on-one situations.
07:20And I feel like Kudus could bring all of this
07:22into the team.
07:23He's got brilliant ball control,
07:25fantastic technical ability.
07:27He's definitely got the strength to hold off a man
07:29and carry the ball forward
07:30like we've seen in the stats.
07:32And I just think he's a really, really good option.
07:35Certainly something different from James Madison.
07:38It's way too early to make this call,
07:39but I'm going to make it anyway.
07:41Kudus could be a similar player
07:43to what Moussa Dembele turned into at Spurs
07:46when he moved from Fulham like 10 years ago.
07:48He wasn't scoring a ridiculous amount of goals,
07:50but you could see that his talent was there
07:52when it came to dribbling,
07:53when it came to his strength
07:54and holding players off,
07:56and when it came to dominating
07:57with a high amount of successful passes
07:59in the middle of the final third and the pitch.
08:02Sounds a lot like the stats
08:03that I've just put forward
08:04for the Ghanaian international.
08:06So, moving further back,
08:08as far back, sorry, as Dembele did,
08:10might not be on the cards.
08:11But a little bit further forward,
08:13Spurs are going to be possession-based,
08:15dominating the midfield
08:16and holding onto the ball
08:18in the attacking third.
08:19Maybe.
08:20Maybe this one actually makes sense.
08:22This could be another one
08:22that I file under my sort of growing list
08:25of expect the unexpected transfers.
08:28Madowiecki and Kudus,
08:29I'm dropping them right in there.
08:31Right, onto some more Ballon d'Or talk
08:33because there's been a bit of an agenda
08:35being pushed by the PSG president himself,
08:38Nasser Al-Khalifi,
08:39who was talking about Ousmane Dembele.
08:42Now, don't get me wrong,
08:43I completely understand the calls
08:45for Ousmane Dembele to win the Ballon d'Or.
08:46In fact, I think he is my favourite,
08:48ever so slightly ahead of Mo Salah
08:51and Lamin Amal.
08:52Both of them two have had brilliant seasons
08:54and both of them,
08:56all three of them,
08:56would be worthy winners.
08:58But Ousmane Dembele,
08:59to really use his performances
09:00in the Club World Cup,
09:01I think is a bit unfair.
09:04Don't get me wrong,
09:04he's been good.
09:05And if PSG go on to win it,
09:06he'll be very good.
09:07But the point is,
09:09firstly,
09:10that Salah and Yamal
09:11aren't in this Club World Cup
09:12through no fault of their own.
09:14And secondly,
09:15it's just not up there
09:17with the toughest and best
09:19and sort of competitions
09:20that every team is putting everything into.
09:22There's so many factors
09:23from players not really being able
09:26to give their best due to the heat,
09:28squads that involve some youngsters,
09:30a transfer window going on.
09:31Obviously,
09:32everyone's knackered
09:32at the end of the season.
09:34I can't really quantify this
09:35as a top-level competition
09:37to then go ahead
09:38and justify giving a Ballon d'Or
09:39to a player too.
09:40If the Ballon d'Or
09:42was judged on
09:43the domestic cups,
09:44the domestic leagues,
09:46obviously individual stats,
09:47and the European Championships,
09:49sorry,
09:50the Champions League,
09:51which Yamal,
09:52Salah,
09:53and Dembele,
09:53the front three,
09:54were all part of,
09:56then it would still go
09:57to Ousmane Dembele.
09:58But yeah,
09:58the PSG president coming out
10:00and saying there's something broken
10:01about the Ballon d'Or
10:02if Dembele doesn't win it
10:03is a massive sort of thing to say
10:05purely because we know
10:07it's broken anyway.
10:09We know that the Ballon d'Or
10:11isn't actually an official thing
10:12and I wouldn't put too much stock in it.
10:15Right, next up,
10:15and I actually saw something
10:16very, very interesting on,
10:18this was Instagram.
10:19This was an Instagram post
10:20about Aston Villa
10:21spending £20 million
10:23on loans in January.
10:25The reason I thought
10:25it was quite interesting
10:26is because loans
10:27don't really get spoken about
10:28when it comes to
10:29a financial outlay.
10:31Everyone talks crazy numbers
10:32and there are massive,
10:34massive wages in football.
10:35But £20 million
10:37on loan players
10:39feels like quite a lot.
10:41However,
10:41I get it.
10:42You've got to push
10:43for the Champions League.
10:45Aston Villa in January
10:45were like,
10:46you know what,
10:46we're well in this top four race.
10:48They've made a few good signings
10:50to really push
10:51for the Champions League
10:52and it hasn't come off
10:53probably due to a very,
10:54very dodgy decision
10:56or two.
10:56on the last day
10:57against Manchester United
10:58and, you know,
10:59that's unfair for them.
11:00But yeah,
11:01I just thought it was
11:01a really interesting point
11:02to make that
11:03actually a lot of money
11:05does go into loans
11:06even though there isn't
11:06a huge, you know,
11:07whatever up front.
11:08There are some big wages.
11:09Ascensio was a good signing,
11:10I thought.
11:11Rashford,
11:12maybe not so much.
11:13From club football
11:13to international football though,
11:15Maurizio Pochettino.
11:17This is some excellent memeing.
11:19Pochettino and the USA
11:20lost in the final
11:22to Mexico,
11:242-1.
11:25It's not ideal
11:27and I think
11:28it makes a case
11:29that Pochettino
11:30is in hot water
11:31over whether or not
11:32he's going to be leading
11:33the US out
11:34as a home nation
11:35next summer
11:36for the World Cup.
11:37It's not great
11:38that they're losing though
11:40and this isn't just
11:40a one-off.
11:41I'm not just saying this
11:42because they've lost to Mexico
11:43in a cup final.
11:44Pochettino's overseen
11:45four losses in a row
11:46earlier this year.
11:47That was the first time
11:47they've lost more than
11:48three in a row
11:49since Jürgen Klinsmann
11:4910 years ago
11:50and given the talent
11:52at their disposal,
11:54you would think
11:55they'd be able to
11:55muster up,
11:57I guess,
11:57a little bit
11:58of a better fight
11:59when it comes to
12:00playing any half-decent teams.
12:01Not only is he going to do well
12:03to hold on to the job
12:03by next summer
12:04but there's going to be
12:04a struggle for him
12:05to turn his reputation around
12:06to then afterwards
12:07get any sort of
12:08high-level job
12:09back in the Premier League
12:09or in Europe again as well
12:11which is a bit of
12:12a tough one for him.
12:13In America though,
12:14we do have the
12:14Club World Cup
12:15going on at the minute
12:16and Thibaut Courtois,
12:18I can't stop thinking
12:19about that save.
12:20The strength in his arm,
12:22like honestly,
12:22this TikTok
12:23doesn't do it justice.
12:24You need to watch it
12:25in as slow a motion
12:26as possible
12:26to fully get
12:28just how ridiculously good
12:30that save was
12:31from Thibaut Courtois.
12:32It just gets better
12:33and better and better.
12:35I guess that really proves
12:36a top-level goalkeeper.
12:38That is what,
12:38the 96th,
12:4097th minute?
12:41Unbelievable goalkeeping.
12:43Lastly,
12:44and obviously
12:45we couldn't speak
12:46about everything
12:46that's come up
12:47on our feed
12:48in the last week
12:49all over the internet
12:50without mentioning
12:50the sad passing
12:51of Diogo Jota
12:52and his brother
12:53Andre Silva as well.
12:54There was loads of content
12:56going around
12:57from the likes of
12:57Ousmane Dembele
12:58and Kylian Mbappe
12:59and others who paid tribute
13:00on the pitch.
13:02I believe it was
13:02Raul Jimenez
13:03who also wore a shirt
13:04with Diogo Jota's name
13:06during Mexico's win too.
13:07That was really,
13:07really cool.
13:09I just wanted to
13:10send on
13:11the thoughts
13:12and the condolences
13:12of myself
13:13and everyone
13:14here at the 442 team
13:15as well
13:15to the family friends
13:16of Diogo
13:18and Andre
13:18and everyone
13:19who knew them
13:19as well.
13:23So,
13:23I'll leave you
13:24with that
13:24for this week.
13:25If you want
13:26to give us
13:26your thoughts
13:27on this show
13:27and any other
13:28of the content
13:28on 442
13:29make sure you get
13:29down in the
13:30comments section
13:30for us.
13:32But that's all
13:32from me
13:33for today.
13:34I'll see you
13:34in the next video.
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