00:10My guest this week is Estonian Prime Minister Kristian Michal.
00:13Estonia is one of the biggest spenders on defence in the whole of NATO.
00:17He says everyone must increase their expenditure because, as he tells me,
00:22Putin needs war to stay in power.
00:25Kristian Michal, Prime Minister of Estonia, thank you very much for joining us on the Europe Conversation.
00:32Thank you.
00:33We've had such an intensive time of late.
00:35We had the NATO summit in The Hague where we had Donald Trump arriving.
00:40We also saw one of the most remarkable things I've heard him say at a press conference.
00:44It was actually quite alarming.
00:45He was asked, first of all, whether he saw Putin as a direct threat, an immediate threat.
00:51He described Putin as someone who was misguided.
00:53And then he was also asked whether he believed Putin had designs beyond Ukraine.
01:01And he said, possibly.
01:02What does that make you think, coming from Estonia?
01:07To be honest, we know our neighbour.
01:10For Putin, it's all about being in power.
01:13To be honest, that Putin needs conflict, like fish needs water, because if you don't have a conflict,
01:20then probably people in Russia will be asking, where is my son?
01:24Where is my husband?
01:25Where are my assets?
01:27And so on.
01:27So to keep everybody under the lead, keep people quiet, keep the regime in power, he needs, Putin needs this kind of conflict.
01:37So that's why we understand that until the regime and Putin changes his goals, until then, Russia is acute threat to Europe, to NATO, to all the civilized world.
01:50Do you think it is possible, then, that Putin could try some sort of territorial conquest in Estonia or the other Baltics?
01:58I would say that we should not be afraid of it, because we are prepared.
02:03That is Finnish saying, and I'm quoting it often, that next year Estonia will have defense expenditure 5.4% of GDP.
02:12Last year, we were in top three of NATO per GDP.
02:16So I would say that we are getting prepared, and as a member of the European Union and as a member of NATO, which recently, a few days ago, committed to increasing defense expenditure,
02:29I would say that we feel strong with NATO and with the European Union.
02:34Because there was Donald Trump on his way over on Air Force One when he came to that summit in The Hague, casting doubt over Article 5,
02:43saying he had explained more when he got there.
02:45Now, when he arrived, he did give assurances that America was committed to Article 5.
02:51But there's always a sort of a haze around it, and there's a question as to whether, in the moment,
02:56if there was some sort of territorial conquest by Putin, whether the United States, and NATO as a whole, would vote to trigger Article 5.
03:04I would say that Trump's message in that room was quite clear, and also the same in the press conference afterwards.
03:11He said that seeing that everybody agreed not to please him, but just to increase the NATO's capability and also NATO's letality agreed to increase defense expenditure.
03:26And to be honest, going from 2% recommended level to 5%, 3.5% plus 1.5% is a huge step for everybody, to be frank.
03:37And as he saw that and said that his message is also that he's committed, as long as he's in office, the states is committed to NATO.
03:46And that's quite a clear message to NATO members, that the United States is committed to NATO.
03:52When you look at Estonia, obviously, you're top of the league when it comes to GDP spending on defense, over 5%,
03:58and probably that will go beyond that in the coming years.
04:01But then there are countries like Spain, for example, who say that's a problem for them, Slovakia as well.
04:07What do you say to those countries?
04:08I will say that it's not only the questions of kilometers, how far you are from Russia.
04:15It's also about recognizing that Europe works as a team and NATO also, because NATO is only the strongest alliance because everybody contributes.
04:27And everybody has certain capabilities to support each other, because the Estonia is small.
04:35But as you said, our defense expenditure will be more than 5% in GDP in military terms, not even the wide terms.
04:44It probably will be even more.
04:45So we can contribute in certain capabilities that others don't have.
04:51I know that other Baltics, other Nordic countries are increasing the defense expenditure.
04:55So as we protect the eastern flank, we expect our allies in other parts of the world to do the same.
05:03I mean, what's your reaction, I suppose, to the likes of Pedro Sánchez?
05:06I mean, do you feel a little bit let down?
05:08I would say that my expectations probably are, yes, that as I know that every country has their own questions, let's say, in domestic politics.
05:20But to be honest, in NATO's declaration, I also asked the secretary-general Mark Rutte that do we have some kind of exemptions for Spain?
05:31He said that no, there are no exceptions in the exemptions.
05:34So I would say that Pedro Sánchez will also have to elaborate himself that how he will fulfill the NATO criteria.
05:44Are you worried about any sort of malaise occurring within Europe, within NATO, those countries that, from a demographic point of view, that people will say,
05:55well, hold on a minute, I don't want to see all this money going towards Ukraine and defense.
05:59I want to see more investment in education, social health care, housing.
06:03This kind of messages are always there, to be honest, because it doesn't even depend on which area you're spending, because to be honest,
06:14some people are saying you should not spend so much money on roads or something.
06:19There are always this kind of messages, no question about it.
06:22But I would say that Swedish prime minister Ulf Kristjansson put it very nicely that yes, we need a welfare state, but welfare state also needs protection.
06:35So if you want to have a free and prosperous area, which Europe is most free and most prosperous area, then you need to protect also.
06:45And you need the capabilities and not only a phone call to your big friend.
06:49So I would say that increasing investments in defense is also increase of security in a very prosperous area to keep it free as it is.
07:00I mean, how do you explain that to your voters when they see the defense industry making an absolute killing?
07:08I mean, there are endless profits when people can't afford various things, various basic things, and they don't see an end to all of this.
07:16I mean, how do you speak to your voters about it? And also, what does Estonia do? Do you cut spending? Are you borrowing?
07:22Yeah, we do both. We cut spending, we are borrowing, and we also raise taxes.
07:29To be honest, this, not everything in that order are not very so popular in Estonia, to be honest, but where would it be?
07:38So nobody likes the taxes and nobody likes the cuts in public budget, but you have to do what you have to do to increase defense spending.
07:45But, yeah, but to explain it to people, I would say that it's probably quite simple, but because we are doing it for ourselves, for our kids, for our neighborhood, for our countries, not to anybody, to anybody else.
08:03And also, in Estonia, and probably all over the Europe, it's the same scenario, that defense industry right now is booming and going up.
08:13And I would say that it's also an addition to our economy, because it's, yeah, for bad reasons, but it's quite innovative.
08:22In Estonia, we have almost already 200 companies going into defense.
08:27One of the things, I suppose, one of the priorities or the points of Vladimir Putin's territorial conquest is to reestablish the Russian sphere of influence across, especially the Baltics, Europe, and so on.
08:38But in Estonia, the Russian language, for example, has been all but eliminated in terms of Russian-speaking schools and so on.
08:45Can you tell us a little bit about the action taken by Estonia to say, well, no longer will there be Russian influence in our country?
08:52Yes, we have been quite systematic, but same probably in other Baltic countries and all the other countries that have been influenced by Russia's actions, because we are quite vigilant.
09:05To be honest, for example, Estonia was the first country in the world that, since 2007, it has been a very, very long time that we became under constant cyber attacks from Russia's side, from stateside criminal players.
09:19And for us, the only way to cope with Russia's, this kind of influence, hybrid attacks and cyber attacks, is to increase our cyber capabilities, which are quite good, to be honest.
09:30And we have this kind of system also that the public sector is working with private sector in Estonia.
09:36But Russia has not decreased its attacks against us.
09:39So with the language, we are the same.
09:43We have this kind of reform going to Estonia on schooling.
09:46And I would say that it should have been done 20 or 30 years ago, but we're doing it right now.
09:52There are small debates, but nothing major.
09:56And we also had an electoral reform saying that citizens who can vote for Putin, for example.
10:03So Russian people with a dual passport, is it?
10:06Yeah, yeah, Russian citizens cannot vote in local elections.
10:09So that is a quite clear message that, let's say, half of Europe has done it already.
10:14So we are not in front even with that, that Russian citizens do not participate in local matters.
10:22If you want to participate in local matters, it's quite obvious you should be a citizen of that state.
10:27Just final question.
10:28The EU has said that it's unacceptable the level of death in Gaza, the starvation, the number of civilians being killed,
10:35the attacks on hospitals, civilian infrastructure, lack of food and so on.
10:40What would you like to see the EU do in relation to Israel, international law,
10:46obviously notwithstanding the fact that hostages need to be released by Hamas.
10:50But what do you think the EU should do?
10:51The high representative presented a review with the Israel compliance and we also delegated this question
11:06that she will have a set of probable possible means for the next meeting that will be the European steps
11:13because it was also a very emotional debate, as you said, that everybody wants to have a peaceful and diplomatic solution.
11:21But what do you think the EU should do?
11:23I mean, it's, as we've seen, the language is pretty extreme, a graveyard for children and so on.
11:29What do you think the EU should actually do about it?
11:32What the EU is doing and probably will do is trying to use its influence on Israel as much as possible
11:39to achieve diplomatic results and to achieve peace.
11:44But at the same time, as you pointed out, that hostages also need to go home.
11:49Okay, Kristi Mikhail, Prime Minister of Estonia, thank you very much for joining us on the Europe Conversation.
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