- 7 months ago
- #considerthis
More than four years since Myanmar’s military coup, the country remains in deep crisis, its future more uncertain than ever. Are there signs of a ‘Balkanised’ Myanmar emerging, and what might that mean for the region? On this episode of #ConsiderThis Melisa Idris speaks with Dr Lina Alexandra, Head of the Department of International Relations at the Centre for Strategic & International Studies Indonesia. Dr Lina is also the Coordinator for the CSIS Myanmar Initiative Programme.
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00:00Hello and good evening. I'm Melissa Idris. Welcome to Consider This. This is the show
00:25where we want you to consider and then reconsider what you know of the news of the day. It's been
00:30more than four years since the Myanmar military coup and the country remains deeply in deep crisis
00:37and its future more uncertain than ever. Amid new calls for a political order, the question we're
00:44asking today is, is there any path forward and what would it be? So joining me on the show to
00:51discuss the road ahead is Dr. Lina Alexandra, who is the head of the Department of International
00:58Relations at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies Indonesia. Lina is the
01:03coordinator for the CSIS Myanmar Initiative Program. Welcome to the show. Thank you so much for joining
01:10me. Thank you. Dr. Lina, maybe we can get a kind of an overview, a broad picture of how much the
01:18the March earthquake had changed the power dynamics since the military coup. Had it shifted the power
01:27dynamics within the country and how? Well, I think we learned that exactly that the crisis map and the
01:38earthquake map is not correlation with each other. Okay. It's not equal. So conflict map doesn't equal
01:44to the earthquake map. So because the earthquake particularly happens in the central area where
01:53it's under the SEC control. So in terms of whether the post earthquake situation actually triggers an
02:00opening for a kind of, you know, a move toward the nation building process, the peace building process,
02:08I think it's not the way to go. Unfortunately, it's quite different with the past experiences that we
02:15have with tsunami Aceh and the cyclone Agis because not all, you know, people of Myanmar are affected.
02:24Yes, a lot, a large number of people are like become victims of the earthquake, but the ethnic groups
02:31were actually, you know, dispersed in the north, in the south, and also in the west. They are not so much affected.
02:40So they see the situation is not an opening for them. And even I think they were jeering up for, you know,
02:48consolidating the pressures even more to the military. So military is basically not in a good shape, I must say,
02:55not in a good shape. But for the whole process, you know, on how, you know, we can bring all parties to the table,
03:04I think it's not the momentum yet.
03:06There was talk previously about the military attempting to organize an election this year.
03:13Where do we stand on that? Is that still happening? And what would be the end game for the military in organizing an election?
03:20Well, a lot of uncertainty there, I think. But the updates that I heard, I think the military is quite serious this time.
03:30I think they are really moving because I think they are pressured by different factors. First, of course,
03:36I think we heard from the session, the China factor is really huge. I think the pressure has been there
03:41because China has a very strong interest to see some sort, quote-unquote, stability to exist, to be on the ground,
03:49because they want to do their business, you know, the investment, things like that. They need that stability.
03:54And also the illegal, you know, economic activities at the border that really disturb the Chinese.
03:59So I think maybe in their mind, you know, by having the election and then after that some sort of government exists in the country,
04:09then that can, you know, restore some of the stability, domestic stability in the region.
04:16So I think, but on the other hand also, I think, you know, the military, we still don't know.
04:23I mean, like after this, it seems that Min Ong Leng, the senior general wants to hold on to power.
04:29But after that, that will create some, you know, tension with the Tatmadaw itself within the military.
04:35Could I get you to explain, Dr. Lina, about China's role in this?
04:39So you talked about how there's an interest in seeing Myanmar become stable for China.
04:45But how much of a role and what kind of a role will China play in shaping Myanmar's trajectory moving forward?
04:52Well, I think China has a very specific interest.
04:56It does not have any, you know, motivation or interest, for example, for democracy restoration in Myanmar.
05:03Right. It's not ideological.
05:04It's not at all. It's very, very pragmatic.
05:07Again, we all know China is one of the key frontline states for Myanmar.
05:12It's bordering at the north. And as I mentioned earlier, a lot of illegal economic activities going on.
05:19And also that actually threatened the Chinese civilians, you know, the businessman that operates in Myanmar.
05:27I see.
05:28So that's why they're very strong interest to, you know, to restore some order.
05:33Because now no government exists basically in Myanmar.
05:36That's why they cannot claim, they cannot ask, you know, the so-called Myanmar government to please, you know, restore some security and order in your country.
05:45Right.
05:46So that will not harm my citizens basically working in Myanmar, something like that.
05:51So, sorry to interrupt, but having established government, so to speak, in Myanmar that the Chinese government can then request or ask for, you know, security and defense purposes.
06:05We've been hearing of renewed interest in a federal system, federal democracy to replace the military control system in Myanmar.
06:13Yeah.
06:14Is that possible? What have you heard? What kind of conversations, discourse is happening around federalism in Myanmar?
06:22Well, in our activities, when we engage with different stakeholders, especially the ethnic group representatives in CSIS, you know, in collaboration with other think tank institutions,
06:34definitely I think there are voices from different, especially the big, the large ethnic groups, you know.
06:41They voice out, you know, their interests for the federal system to be implemented in the country.
06:50But I think, to be frank, you know, I think they are not in unison in envisioning what sort of federal systems they want, you know.
07:03They are not consolidative enough, you know, among themselves, what sort of federalism system that they want.
07:12Okay, so there's no real agreement or unity in what federalism should look like in the country, I see.
07:18Not at all. And especially when you talk about the relations with the NUG, the National Unity Government, you know, I don't think the National Unity Government is into that particular direction to some extent, you know.
07:30You know, so I think the relations between the ethnic groups and the NUG, I think there's still a lot of things need to be worked on that.
07:40I see.
07:41But the military definitely, we know, they don't want to have the federal system implemented.
07:45Okay. Is there a risk that it could, the country could head towards de facto fragmentation or balkanism, if we can use that term?
07:56Yeah, that's exactly what we really worry, and that happens because of the pushing and the pulling factors, you know.
08:05Because as I think Min Xin mentioned, Dr. Min Xin mentioned, you know, that's exactly what we really worry,
08:13the partitioning of different regions, you know, according to ethnic lines in Myanmar.
08:20So basically fragmentation.
08:21Yeah.
08:22Right.
08:23So that's what, because the encroaching intervention from the external powers, especially China, for example, and also other, other frontline states,
08:32that's something that we really worry to happen, you know.
08:35So that partitioning the areas, you know, where they are not really in good terms, sometimes they are fighting to each other, you know.
08:43That's why I think that's really, really concerning. That's something.
08:47What are you watching out for? What red flags are you, a warning signs are you watching out for, to see whether or not this type of balkanism,
08:59fragmentation, partitioning is going to happen?
09:02Well, I think the election could be, you know, you know.
09:09A catalyst or a trigger for it?
09:11Yeah, that's what something that we really worry, because everyone knows if it's organized by the, by the SAC, by the military junta,
09:20it's not going to be fair and neutral to some extent, you know, free and fair election.
09:27And that will trigger, you know, more conflict and more, you know, like stronger interest to actually split up.
09:36Right. So that could be the triggering point. That's something that we really, really, really worry, I think.
09:42How should the international community respond to an election in Myanmar if it's held by the SAC?
09:49Well, that's the tough question that I posed to the panelists just now, you know.
09:55How ASEAN, I'm not talking even, you know, to the international community.
09:59International community. It's a regional community.
10:01Yeah. Even to the neighboring countries, how ASEAN should respond to that.
10:05I think there's no solid question. They are aware of this possibility, of course.
10:10But even Malaysia as chair, like Lillian just mentioned, you know, we are still not ready with that.
10:19I mean, like they, they just go with the lowest position, meaning that they have to accept that there might not be a common position from ASEAN.
10:29That different ASEAN countries might take different response to the election, you know.
10:38That's what likely to happen, I think, unfortunately. Well, there's still time.
10:43What would you like to see? How ASEAN responds? What would you like to see?
10:49Well, I think, in my opinion, what I want is a solid position, of course, solid response from ASEAN saying,
10:57well, this is not a free and fair election.
11:01A rejection of the results of the elections, maybe?
11:04Something like that, you know. If it's truly, if that's the case on the ground.
11:08If it's like, somehow, I don't know how, if they can make it free and fair, we should acknowledge the result, of course.
11:14Would you accept China as an independent observer in the elections?
11:20Well, it's not up to us, right? It's always up to the authorities, the one that organise that.
11:30But what I anticipate, I think, the junta will ask ASEAN also to be part of the observers.
11:38Okay. And would that make the results more credible, more palatable?
11:44Well, the question is really how ASEAN should respond to such requests.
11:48A request? Oh, okay.
11:50Should we accept it or not? If ASEAN accept it, then sitting there, then the junta can easily say,
11:55see, we have ASEAN as the observer of the election. We can say it is a legitimate election, and so on and so on.
12:03So ASEAN's presence could legitimise the results.
12:07That's what we really worry. I mean, like, they can tweak it, of course, if ASEAN presents, right?
12:12Yeah, but the problem is, as I mentioned to you, they ask ASEAN, and different ASEAN members respond differently.
12:19So some ASEAN members might say, okay, we'll go and become observers.
12:24Some others probably say, no, no, no, because it's going to be, you know, not a free and fair election, so we won't be there.
12:30So, but still, because some of the ASEAN members are there, then probably the junta can tweak it, saying that, ah, see, we have the ASEAN presence here,
12:40and they acknowledge the result, and, you know, and...
12:44So Malaysia is chair this year, but we will hand it over to the Philippines by the end of the year.
12:50Yes.
12:51How do you think the Philippines might respond to the Myanmar crisis as chair?
12:56Well, I can only hope here, you know, because...
13:00We can anticipate.
13:01Yeah, because we are talking about the permanency position of the special envoy, a kind of more sustainable ASEAN approach to Myanmar crisis.
13:12We are also discussing about the ASEAN troika mechanism, you know, on how to create that kind of sustainable approach from ASEAN.
13:21So, ah, so, again, this is just a hope.
13:25So, Philippines will carry out, just like Malaysia carry out from the previous chairs about...
13:31The analogy is like building blocks, you know, you're building a house, and you put one block there, or two blocks there,
13:38and your successor will put another block, and then at the end it will become a building, you know.
13:44And that's what we hope with the Philippines.
13:47But, to be frank, you know, because Philippines is having its own specific agenda, you know, like the South China Sea, for example.
13:55And, ah, they have been very silent in terms of the Myanmar crisis so far.
14:00We are not too sure about how the position, like, different with Indonesia and Malaysia, for example, and Singapore and Thailand, we all know.
14:08But with Philippines, I think, so, Malaysia, I think, needs to work quite hard to actually pass some of the takeaways, you know, for Philippines to carry out, basically.
14:22So, they are not, you know, putting another, you know, start, you know, start from scratch again.
14:29And that will ruin, I think, the idea of sustainable ASEAN approach.
14:33The momentum that's created.
14:35Exactly.
14:36Dr. Lina, thank you so much for sharing some of your insights with us.
14:39I appreciate your time.
14:41We're going to take a quick break here and consider this.
14:43We'll be right back. Stay tuned.
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