00:00and uh so the discussion would be okay if this pillar gets taken out this thing gets taken out
00:05and this gets removed what happens to these organizations so you'll have the different
00:11uh dare i say subject matter experts maybe representing you know proxy stakeholders if
00:18you will i don't know how you want to put that uh that would say well if i was you know in
00:23hezbollah this is what i would now be looking at if i was hamas this would not be looking at if i
00:27was the houthis that i'd be looking at and and when you when you build a consensus and an understanding
00:33that comes out of this process that will guide your decisions going forward but part of that would be
00:38that something like this could lead to the end of what some of what might call the uh the influence
00:47of uh the shiite crescent and just for those who don't know there there are two dominant faith groups
00:56if you will within islam one is sunni and that's saudi arabia is kind of the lead for that all
01:03right the other is shiite and iran is lead for that now of the two the sunnis far outnumber the
01:10shiites but in iran the shiites way outnumber the sunnis in uh in iraq the sunnis are actually
01:19uh the majority of the population are the shiites the majority population um the asad family was from
01:27a uh the alawites which are shiite and then in uh lebanon uh hezbollah really captures predominantly
01:35the representation of the shiites within there but uh the society is you know broken down between
01:41sunni shiites and then christians for the most part uh in lebanon and and then you'll see various
01:47pockets of shiite stuff such as see with the houthis uh as well and so uh lebanon i mean
01:54iran being taken out of the equation completely changes the math across the region because there
02:02is no longer this big state sponsor of these shiite groups and the militias the shiite militias
02:08that are uh they're you know basically fomenting terrorism and paramilitary threats within iraq will
02:16have to take that into account any resistance to the current government in syria that's based on
02:21shiite and alawite affiliate affinity will definitely have to take this into account hezbollah
02:27may finally decide shortly thereafter that they're going to lay down their arms i i kind of i'm not
02:33saying i foresee that but i see as a very likely outcome that uh what the lebanese government has
02:39been doing in those discussions could really bear fruit very quickly here and uh and then the houthis
02:45are going to have to do a little bit of self-examination which is who are we and what
02:49can we do going forward and how do we survive without an iran iranian state sponsor so what
02:56you could end up seeing is a complete reset strategically speaking of what we've what we've
03:02known for decades uh or many years but certainly decades across the middle east this would be a big
03:09change by the way i should mention something else too china and russia they're the other two big
03:16players in this china gets a phenomenal amount of oil from iran china has got a huge investment
03:22in iran uh some could arguably say that some of the things that china has done by iran is really part of
03:29its larger belt and road initiative around the world uh so this has all changed uh iran and china is
03:36going to be kind of looking uh it's going to change the way china views the world because all of a
03:44sudden if there's a for example a new regime comes in and it's a pro-western regime that eventually
03:50dominates and i'm not saying it's going to be democracy or anything like that i'm not i'm not
03:54going to you know we love to say oh they'll come in it'll be democracy and they'll be wonderful and
03:58they're going to copy that you know the constitution of the united states or something like that i'm not
04:03going to believe that we're going to pull something like that off but you could end up seeing a more
04:07pro-western regime that comes into uh comes into power in iran if that happens and this is all very
04:14much supposition if you will uh then china geo strategically is going to have to kind of
04:20reevaluate where it sits with some of its aspirations in a variety of places around the world not to mention
04:25the south china sea uh and what they're doing and then russia has just lost one of its core allies
04:33you know one of its support beams you know sending things like ballistic missiles and drones up to
04:39russia and its war with ukraine and so they're going to have to reevaluate where they are geo strategically
04:46and and they would be in a very difficult situation albeit with one thing i should mention
04:51that uh with this war oil prices have spiked which has actually increased the amount of revenue
05:00uh going into russia from oil sales so for in the short run they've actually kind of profited from
05:07this war in terms of oil revenue even though they've been pretty much cut off from any other
05:13stuff or any other support coming from iran uh because of all the airstrikes and stuff they've
05:18actually from a revenue standpoint uh they were in desperate streets and all of a sudden they have
05:25a lot more money that they could spend on more fighting in ukraine this is uh what we heard from
05:31president trump on social media right after it happened this is in fact was the announcement
05:36about the strike itself we expect the president to speak on camera from the white house at the top of
05:41the hour in 14 minutes he says we have completed our very successful attack on the three nuclear sites
05:47in iran including fordo natanz and esvahan all planes are now outside of iran airspace
05:55a full payload of bombs was dropped on the primary site fordo we've now since learned that it was six
06:02b2 bombers uh or excuse me three b2s that dropped six uh bunker busters on fordo trump says all planes
06:11are safely on their way home the president says congratulations to our great american warriors
06:17there is not another military in the world that could have done this he says now is the time for
06:23peace thank you for your attention to this matter he says so i gotta focus in on the second to last
06:33sentence there it's in all caps now is the time for peace trump says uh does peace seem like the type
06:40of response iran might have after something like this how i find that interesting you know the all
06:46caps thing i don't want to get into textology that much you know it's like what is it all caps or
06:51whatever and uh but you know uh president trump let's just say he's been known to send texts all right
06:58i think it's a way of communication he's very comfortable with and when he puts that in there
07:03that's a that's a message aimed directly at the iranian regime which is a way of saying hey look
07:10you need to come to the negotiating table and figure this out and you know basically you know
07:17the doors open if you choose to go this way the fact the iranian regime played games with that 60 day
07:24window uh where they could have negotiated something and of course the iranians they just they said nope
07:30unless we're allowed to keep doing everything we want to do um then uh that we won't agree to
07:35anything and of course now they paid that price for that position and uh for the and you have to
07:42remember for the iranian regime uh over the top combative uh rhetoric and politics is kind of what
07:49keeps them in power if if they weren't able to say death to america and you know pledge to the
07:56destruction of israel they would have a very small vocabulary because that's pretty much what they
08:00say all the time so they kind of have to do that that's part of their if you will their are there's
08:07their uh their id if you will their their their self-identification is being this revolutionary
08:14uh shiite regime that uh you know is trying to take over the middle east and everything else
08:20that's that's that's kind of who they are and so the time for peace that's very difficult and again
08:27if they agree to everything again they're going to have to look to the iranian people who are going
08:34to look at them and say so exactly what are you again you can't protect us you can't do all these
08:38other things uh we're certainly not going to you know uh maintain a reasonable standard of living
08:44with you in power and uh and and now you you have to abandon everything you've been saying for the last
08:52you know 45 years plus
08:54you
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