00:00Sekarang, minggu ini mengatakan Wu mengatakan kita melihat jumlah kembali mengembangkan keamanan ekonomian kecil.
00:06Kritik bertanya, apakah ini akhirnya kematan kemudian?
00:09Melissa Idres mengenai ini dengan Prof. Emeritus Datuk-Dr. Wu Wingtai.
00:17Saya tidak memikirkan itu akan kematan kemudian kemudian kemudian kemudian China membuat salah satu kesalahan yang sangat serius.
00:25First of all, we have to remember that the Chinese economy grew at over 10% a year from 1970 up to 2012.
00:38It is unrealistic to expect that the country could continue to grow at 10% a year for the next 30 years.
00:49It is for the simple reason that a large part of the growth occurs because China started out very far from the global frontier of technology.
01:04So China started with a very backward level of technology and when it opened up, it entered the global market of technology.
01:15So it's able to buy technology, look at what other people have done, and they have run the correct lessons and went ahead and it grew at 10% a year for the first almost 30 years.
01:32That has to slow down, largely because as you get closer and closer to the global technological frontier, your gap is not so big anymore.
01:43So everything you do is less, have less of a bank than before.
01:51So which is why in 2014, when Xi Jinping came to power, he pronounced that China has entered into a new normal.
02:06The new normal means a growth of roughly 7% down from the 10.
02:13But what we have seen in recent years is much lower than 7%.
02:18Like 2023, 2024, it is less than 5.5.
02:24So it is unnaturally low.
02:28And the IMF has predicted that 2025 will be less than 4%.
02:36So I do think that China has been growing below potential from ever since around 2018, largely and it could easily grow back at 6%.
02:57Catch the full conversation of this on all Awani International's social media accounts at Power Affairs.
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