00:00Iran has had a nuclear program for several decades now. And I think it's important to highlight that
00:21the Iranian government has always maintained that this is for peaceful purposes only. Iran
00:27has several nuclear power plants, one that is currently operational, and then plans to
00:36establish nuclear power at several more sites. And Iran also does other nuclear,
00:43peaceful nuclear research activities related to agriculture, medicine, and so on.
00:57We also know that Iran has been enriching uranium to a much higher degree than is necessary for the
01:20peaceful purposes that the Iranian government is pursuing. And so for that reason, there has been
01:28a long running concern in the international community that Iran might be pursuing nuclear weapons.
01:40So uranium that is used for nuclear weapons tends to be enriched to roughly 90%. And you wouldn't ever
02:02go that far, essentially, if you're trying to use it for peaceful uses. And so the stockpile that Iran
02:10has that's enriched to 60% could be used for nuclear fuel, but it is also relatively quick to enrich it
02:17to the 90% required for nuclear weapons capability.
02:24that's what we're trying to use for nuclear weapons. And so we're trying to use it for nuclear weapons.
02:36Always the exchange of delegations and power dials. Because what they rise and what they say
02:44What we know is that prior to Israel's attack, the IAEA had said that Iran had likely enriched enough
02:58material for up to nine nuclear weapons. But what we haven't really got any evidence on
03:05is any other activities that would allow Iran to build nuclear warheads. Iran, of course, has a really
03:11sophisticated missile industry and has one of the biggest missile stockpiles in the Middle East.
03:18But there is there's more that is required for a nuclear weapons program other than just
03:23highly enriched uranium and missiles. And we haven't really got strong evidence that Iran was trying
03:30to build a warhead or doing anything else prior to Israel's attack.
03:54So Iran has two main enrichment facilities, one at Natanz, one at Fordow.
03:59And these are pretty secure facilities with a lot of the actual activity happening underground.
04:07And so when Israel attacked on Friday, it immediately targeted the facility at Natanz.
04:14And it looks like the strikes did quite a lot of damage above ground. So the above ground facilities
04:22are pretty much destroyed and the electricity supply for the facility is also destroyed.
04:27So the IAEA has said that it estimates on the basis of the damage that has been done,
04:33that the centrifuges that you would use for uranium enrichment, which are underground,
04:39are likely also damaged and would either need significant repairs or might even be completely
04:45destroyed because they are quite fragile technically. And so both the shocks from the
04:51explosions as well as the cut of the electricity supply would have probably damaged them quite significantly.
05:02The loss of power to the Cascade
05:06hold may have damaged the centrifuges located there.
05:21At Fordow, we know that Israel has also targeted that facility now, but there's less known about the damages
05:29done to the infrastructure there. So it's difficult to assess.
05:32But yeah, I think what we know for now is that essentially no radiation has been released at either site,
05:41which is really positive. And the damages will undoubtedly set back Iran's nuclear program
05:48because Iran would need to either repair or reconstruct the centrifuges that are essential for the enrichment process.
05:55In the last few years, we collected the uranium enrichment site in Iran,
06:00on the 1,500 kilometers from the state of Israel. This device was created by the
06:04process for the deployment of the Iranian nuclear nuclear project.
06:08As you can see, the site is located in the Netanz's network.
06:12In the network, the TAT-Karkaia network sold the uranium enrichment,
06:16by the number of places, and the centrifuges,
06:19the headquarters of the Cascade, and other operations.
06:22We've got the Krak'i network and we've got the additional additional resources in the
06:27site that allow the security of its security.
06:29We've got the information in this site.
06:32I think it will have an immediate effect on Iran's capabilities, just in the sense
06:37that those people would have been leaders in Iran's nuclear program and they are now
06:43no longer able to continue that work.
06:46But Iran has made such technological breakthroughs and they likely have the internal infrastructure
06:52for training scientists in their own universities and so on, that I'm sure there's going to
06:57be a next generation of scientists who are going to be able to pick up that work.
07:13How quickly Iran could pursue nuclear weapon now at this point depends a bit on the damage
07:18that's been done and how much of its already highly enriched uranium it could recover.
07:25That's really hard to say without knowing more about the extent of the damages.
07:30I have seen some experts assess that on the basis of the damage that we know has been done,
07:35the uranium breakout capability would have been set back by several years.
07:55So it seems like Israel has managed to do quite a significant amount of damage, but there are
08:01there are essentially some weapons that you could use to strike really hardened, very far
08:07underground targets that they would probably have to procure from the US that can also only
08:12be delivered with US planes.
08:14So I think one question is to what extent the Trump administration wants to get involved in
08:19this.
08:20And then, of course, you're also severely increasing, especially at ISFAHAN, you would be severely
08:24increasing the risk of releasing radiological materials into the wider environment, which
08:32would be really risky.
08:46So, of course, Israel has never admitted to having nuclear weapons themselves, but they are
08:50widely assumed to have nuclear weapons.
08:53And one of my concerns was that if Israel really wants to see Iran's nuclear weapons program
08:59gone and it doesn't get additional support from the US and it sort of estimates that its
09:04own conventional capabilities aren't sufficient for destroying these facilities, whether it would
09:09consider using a lower yield nuclear weapon, which would have the explosive capability to
09:14reach even very far underground, very hardened targets.
09:17That would, of course, be a huge violation of international law and the nuclear taboo and would
09:23be hugely escalatory in this conflict.
09:26But depending on how urgent the Israeli government feels, they can only strike now and can only
09:32remove the Iranian nuclear program at this point in time.
09:37That is a risk that is unfortunately on the table.
09:40That is a risk that has been erreichen.
09:53So, of course, you don't want to circle to them.
09:59There's only a gain in time.
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