00:00And I've been speaking to Reena Shah, a political strategist and former Republican presidential campaign advisor.
00:08You know, the tax cut bill, which was dubbed as Trump's big, beautiful bill, barely squeaked through the house.
00:13And what Elon Musk is doing now is calling it a disgusting abomination, excuse me.
00:19And he is not exactly wrong because what the bill does is drives up the national deficit.
00:25The federal government is spending us into oblivion, and that is something that Republicans have warned about for many years.
00:32And also, we still have so many deficit hawks on Capitol Hill.
00:36People like Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky and Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, they are itching to flex their no votes right now.
00:45So I've got to tell you this, with Republicans holding a very shaky 53 to 47 Senate edge, just four defectors could tank the entire bill's passage.
00:56And with Elon Musk's megaphone emboldening the fiscal conservatives who already think the bill's $2 to $5 trillion debt spike is nuts, it's not looking good for this bill to pass.
01:08We already know that a patch-up call scheduled for Friday has been canceled.
01:13Could this, if it's long and drawn out, impact the Republicans' run-up to the primaries, the midterms?
01:21Absolutely.
01:22You know, this drama is throwing a wrench in Trump's tariff talks.
01:26He's out there trying to strong-arm countries like China and other allies to the U.S. with these tariff threats.
01:32But one thing that Elon Musk's public smackdown does is makes Trump look like he's losing grip on his own team.
01:40And that's really important because that is something that President Trump notoriously dislikes, is aims at his ego, aims at his business credentials, aims at what he's able to do in terms of getting bills passed into law or getting people to coalesce behind him.
01:59Elon Musk has already warned that Trump's tariffs could spark a recession by late 2025.
02:04And what his ex-posts are doing is rallying that anti-tariff sentiment.
02:09So what that is is a really bad look when Trump is pitching a tough-guy trade stance to Xi Jinping or to Germany's MERS.
02:17And if senators start doubling down, essentially, and doubting Trump's leadership because of this feud,
02:23they might push back on his tariff agenda to score points with voters or with Elon Musk's fan base.
02:29It's like trying to negotiate a global deal while your house is on fire.
02:34Good luck with that.
02:36But, of course, this spat has been described as mutually assured destruction, hello, nuclear, in a different way.
02:43What are the risks for Elon Musk?
02:46You know, Elon Musk undoubtedly is playing with fire here.
02:50Tesla's stock tanked that 14 percent on Thursday.
02:54And what that did was wipe out $150 billion in value after Trump threatened to yank the federal contracts and subsidies.
03:02And so that's a real gut punch for Tesla, for SpaceX, for Starlink.
03:06And because all three of those lean on billions of dollars of government money.
03:12And also, let's look here.
03:13SpaceX is their Dragon spacecraft is really critical for NASA and the International Space Station.
03:21So if Trump follows through on decommissioning threats, what happens is that Elon Musk's space empire could take a massive hit.
03:29He's already talking about pulling Dragon, which is a bold but very risky bluff.
03:35And then also, let's not forget, the electric vehicle tax credits.
03:39The bill that is sitting in the Senate right now that, again, passed the House already, really hammers Tesla's bottom line.
03:46And protests at Tesla's sites, as well as boycotts, have tied Musk's politics already to very bad sales in just this year.
03:56So if Elon Musk keeps poking the bear, what he's doing is betting that his businesses can outlast Trump's revenge.
04:04We heard that Friday's patch-up call has been canceled.
04:07We don't know if it's going to be rescheduled.
04:09But do you expect the White House to move swiftly to try and patch this up?
04:13Look, both of these men have very huge egos, that's obvious, but they also have a lot to lose.
04:21So I'd bet on a grudging truth here.
04:24The White House is already downplaying this, saying that no Trump and Musk call has been planned.
04:29But they're not burning bridges yet, and that's important to note.
04:33You know, in this moment, Trump needs Musk's cash and the influence on X, formerly known as Twitter.
04:40He needs those things for his agenda and for future campaigns, while Elon Musk needs those government contracts to keep Tesla and SpaceX humming.
04:49So they're like two scorpions in a bottle right now.
04:52Neither wants to sting first.
04:54And so what I would say is expect some backroom deals to happen where Musk softens his attacks and Trump tweaks the bill to maybe save face.
05:03Also, maybe a photo op at Mar-a-Lago to kiss and make up.
05:07But if they don't patch it up soon, this could spiral into a full-on GOP civil war.
