00:00Global Airlines shaved a key forecast for 2025 industry-wide profits to date,
00:06blaming trade tensions and declining consumer confidence.
00:10Other than that, they also hit out at delays in jetliner deliveries that have hindered growth plans.
00:17The International Air Transport Association issued the widely watched forecast,
00:23which give clues to the wider economy,
00:25at an annual meeting of its more than 300 member airlines in New Delhi on Sunday.
00:30The IATA industry body now expects global airlines to pose a combined profit of $36 billion this year,
00:38down slightly from a previous forecast of $36.6 billion in December before U.S. President Donald Trump took office.
00:47So, although our revenue forecast is down, our cost forecast is also down.
00:53And that leaves us with a net position, which is broadly similar to what we had previously forecast,
00:59at $36 billion U.S. dollars.
01:02Lovely figure, very big by any measure.
01:05But when you translate that into margin, it's a margin at 3.7 percent.
01:09And that remains a wafer-tin margin for the airline industry.
01:13Trump's sweeping tariffs have stoked fears of an economic slowdown and squeezed discretionary spending,
01:19prompting many consumers, especially in the U.S., to delay or scale back travel plans.
01:25Meanwhile, aircraft delivery delays have hampered airlines' ability to meet soaring travel demand in certain regions,
01:32while driving up operating costs as carriers are forced to keep older jets in service
01:37or pay more for the dwindling number of available spare parts.
01:41I think it's been something that's frustrated everybody, particularly for airlines who are waiting
01:47to take delivery of aircraft or who have aircraft sitting on the ground that they would love to see in service.
01:53So what we're trying to do is working together to better understand where the pinch points are,
01:59to get a more accurate assessment of the forecast,
02:02so at least we can get more certainty around when issues will be resolved.
02:07Total expenses for the industry are forecast to reach $913 billion in 2025,
02:14up 1 percent from 2024 but below earlier projections of $940 billion,
02:20as lower fuel prices help offset rising aircraft maintenance costs.
02:25IATA predicted that cargo revenues would drop 4.7 percent to $142 billion in 2025,
02:32mainly due to reduced global economic growth and trade-dampening protectionist measures, including tariffs.
02:40Amid a tug of war over who should absorb the tariffs,
02:43Walsh recognized that some manufacturers would be tempted to pass them on to their consumers,
02:48but warned this would also push up fares.
02:51So how much of that they can absorb?
02:53How much of that...
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