00:00Canada is like a plus one.
00:03Never the main character, never the life of the party,
00:06and never free to make its own choices.
00:10What the US did, so did Canada.
00:13But Donald Trump is shaking up that equation.
00:16First he talked about annexing Canada,
00:18and then he started a trade war with them.
00:22So it looks like Canada is exploring alternatives.
00:25Their Prime Minister has unveiled a new plan.
00:27And he wants to join the European Union's mega-defense project.
00:31It was announced in March last year.
00:34It's called Rearm Europe.
00:36Now the plan is to spend $900 billion on defense,
00:39not on buying foreign weapons,
00:41but on building up Europe's defense industry.
00:44This plan has two broad goals.
00:46A, to deter possible Russian aggression.
00:52And B, to reduce dependence on US arms.
00:55And of course, Canada shares these goals.
00:58Around 75% of their defense spending goes to the US for Canada.
01:0475% of the defense spending goes to the US into buying American weapons,
01:08which is why Ottawa is looking to diversify.
01:12But frankly, this goes beyond just military ties.
01:15This could be a broad realignment.
01:19Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke about it after his election win.
01:23He said Canada's old relationship with the US was over.
01:26Our old relationship with the United States,
01:30a relationship based on steadily increasing integration, is over.
01:36The system of open global trade anchored by the United States,
01:42a system that Canada has relied on since the Second World War,
01:46a system that, while not perfect,
01:49has helped deliver prosperity for a country for decades, is over.
01:54There are two factors here.
01:59One is obviously Donald Trump's rhetoric.
02:02He basically pushed Canada into Europe's embrace.
02:05Secondly, Carney has a European connect, especially with the UK.
02:08As a student, he studied at Oxford.
02:12As a banker, he worked in London.
02:14And in 2013, he was appointed to lead the Bank of England.
02:18In fact, Carney was the first non-Britain to head their central bank.
02:22And this was before Brexit.
02:25So chances are, he interacted closely with Brussels.
02:28Once he became Prime Minister, this affinity became clear.
02:31He did not visit the US for his first foreign trip.
02:35He traveled to France and Britain.
02:37And in Paris, he made a big statement.
02:39He called Canada the most European of non-European nations.
02:43I want to ensure that France and the whole of Europe
02:46works enthusiastically with Canada,
02:50the most European of non-European countries.
02:56The policies match two.
02:58Carney supports Europe and Ukraine.
03:00He also shares their policy on Gaza.
03:01This month, he released a joint statement with London and Paris.
03:05All three condemned Israel's plan to invade the Strip.
03:07So there's policy agreement, cultural affinity
03:11and political will on all sides.
03:15The question is, how far can this partnership go?
03:18And how will Trump react?
03:20Well, some people have taken it absurdly far.
03:24Look at this opinion poll from March.
03:26It found that 46% Canadians wanted to join the EU.
03:30Now, to put that in context,
03:31only 45% people in Britain want to rejoin the EU.
03:35So it looks like the EU is more popular in Canada than in Britain.
03:41What's even more absurd,
03:43one member of the European Parliament is pushing for it.
03:46He took the proposal to the EU Commission.
03:49He demanded that Canada be considered for membership.
03:53And the response?
03:55A straightforward no.
03:57The EU treaty only allows European countries to join
04:00and Canada is not European.
04:02It's a North American country.
04:03Nonetheless, the MP is not giving up.
04:06He says, the definition of Europe is flexible.
04:09For example, Cyprus is geographically located in West Asia.
04:13Yet, it is part of the EU.
04:15I don't think that argument will find many takers in Brussels.
04:18But either way, the story is not about the membership.
04:21The story is the proximity here.
04:23Trump's rhetoric has alienated a long-time ally,
04:27a neighbour it could virtually take for granted.
04:30Which brings us to our second question.
04:34How will Donald Trump react to all of this?
04:37He has proposed a defence project of his own,
04:39an air defence system called the Golden Dole.
04:43Trump is hoping that Canada will join it.
04:45But again, the problem is his approach.
04:49He is asking Canada to pay $61 billion for this project,
04:52unless Canada joins the US, in which case it is free.
04:58Such moves will push Canada away from the US.
05:02But a clean break-up is unlikely.
05:05Canada is too dependent on America for security and trade.
05:10Thus, geography is on Trump's side.
05:12The Canadians fear Russian aggression in the Arctic,
05:14and the Americans can help Canada with that.
05:17But the Europeans, even if they want to,
05:19they lack the capability right now.
05:21So as things stand, this is a break, not a break-up.
05:26But if Trump keeps this up, you never know.
Comments