US-Ukraine minerals deal: "It is still a very preliminary deal"

CGTN Europe interviewed Rob Kniaz, Founder of H Tree Capital

Transcript

00:00Catherine Quinn-Judge is an independent Ukraine analyst.

00:04It's important to note to start off with that it's still a very preliminary deal.

00:09The draft that the Americans initially showed the Ukrainians back in February was 90 pages.

00:17This is what we've seen, the Ukrainian version that we've seen so far is 12 pages, right, by comparison.

00:23So it's very preliminary.

00:25It outlines a series of principles that are going to have to be fleshed out in a further technical deal.

00:31It concerns, of course, Ukraine's mineral reserves.

00:34How significant are they? Put them into context globally for us.

00:39While Ukraine's rare earth reserves and total mineral reserves are obviously a state secret,

00:45it's likely that it contains at least 5% of global reserves of titanium,

00:52maybe even up to 20%.

00:55Some of these reserves are in relatively safe areas,

00:58but some of them are also in areas that are under Russian attack,

01:03meaning that, you know, hopefully from the viewpoint of the Ukrainians,

01:09having potential access to these reserves would give the U.S. added impetus to try to ensure Ukraine's security.

01:15Ukraine has significant lithium deposits as well, valued at about $40 billion potentially.

01:23But it's important to note that these really, these aren't explored.

01:26It's not clear how accessible they're really going to be.

01:29So while, you know, while the notion of Ukrainian becoming this lithium powerhouse

01:33and, you know, and really helping to fuel Europe's clean energy transition is enticing,

01:40it's, you know, it's pretty nebulous still at this point.

01:43So I wonder if this deal actually, it looks like a good one from Ukraine's point of view.

01:49These minerals could, from what you've said there,

01:51potentially be a huge benefit to them in their future economy.

01:55But do you think they've perhaps given away some of that future prosperity for short-term gain?

02:00I want to repeat that what's been signed so far really is very preliminary.

02:05So there is a possibility, yeah, there's a possibility that Ukraine could end up giving away too much.

02:10And there's also the prospect that what eventually gets hashed out in the technical details

02:16is actually enormously more beneficial to Ukraine than the very non-advantageous first draft

02:24was that the U.S. presented back in February.

02:27At this point, one of Ukraine's major demands has been that the U.S. commit to not actually removing funds

02:37for the first 10 years of the fund's operation,

02:41meaning that all the money that the U.S. made for the fund would have to be reinvested back into Ukraine.

02:46I think that in terms of Ukraine's recovery and just in terms of general fairness, justice,

02:52that would be a really important element for Ukraine to secure.

02:59But at this point, it's not clear whether that's going to happen.

03:03The reports that we've gotten have been, you know, rather to the opposite nature,

03:06that the U.S. has been, you know, the U.S. tried to make some last-minute demands,

03:11trying to get Ukraine to sign a few more documents that it wasn't comfortable signing at the last minute.

03:16So, I'll see you next time.