00:00Frankenstein, a glacial climate and torrents of lava.
00:04Do they have in common?
00:06They all find their origin in the eruption of Mount Tambora.
00:10This Indonesian volcano had such a colossal impact
00:13that its repercussions were still felt in Switzerland a year later,
00:17although these two places are separated by several thousand kilometers.
00:21We could soon face a similar phenomenon.
00:24Stay tuned, because we will show you the exact place
00:28where the next eruption is expected for 2025.
00:34In 1815, Tambora experienced an eruption of unparalleled strength,
00:38projecting a huge cloud of fine particles into the atmosphere.
00:42This atmospheric veil reflected the sun's light,
00:45causing global cooling and even the summer of 1816.
00:51Temperatures have drastically fallen,
00:54causing disastrous crops and causing food shortages all over the world,
00:59exacerbated by many health problems.
01:02Unknown anecdote,
01:03Frankenstein was born due to an abnormally cold summer in 1816.
01:08Mary Shelley, stuck in Switzerland by this glacial climate,
01:12wrote this story to fill her days.
01:14But this was the only positive consequence of this event.
01:17In England and Ireland,
01:19bad crops have caused such a severe famine that it has cost lives.
01:23All this is attributable to the eruption that occurred in Indonesia.
01:27Although several other volcanoes have erupted since,
01:30none have had as dramatic an impact as Tambora.
01:35Marcus Stoffel, professor of climatology at the University of Geneva,
01:39believes that major eruptions are not simply due to chance.
01:43They are inevitable.
01:45So we have the choice
01:47to wait passively or start preparing ourselves today.
01:52This future eruption will occur in a world very different from that of 1815.
01:57The planet is today not only much densely populated,
02:01but it has also undergone irreversible transformations
02:04that shake our daily lives.
02:07If you think that volcanoes are always the big ones to blame,
02:10you are wrong.
02:12In reality, they have played a fundamental role
02:15in the structuring of our planet.
02:17They participate in the formation of lands,
02:20in the development of the atmosphere,
02:22and in the regulation of the climate.
02:24Take Yellowstone, for example.
02:26The thick lava that has spilled to the surface
02:28has irreversibly remodeled the landscape.
02:31When a volcano erupts,
02:33it projects a mixture of lava, ash, and gas,
02:36including carbon dioxide.
02:38But do not be alarmed.
02:40In comparison to the emissions of our fossil fuels,
02:42the amount released by volcanoes is negligible.
02:45What is particularly interesting to scientists is sulfur dioxide,
02:49because its impact on the climate can be significant.
02:54During a major volcanic eruption,
02:56sulfur dioxide can be propelled up to the stratosphere,
02:59at about 11 km in altitude.
03:02Once at this height,
03:04it turns into tiny aerosol particles
03:07that scatter the sunlight,
03:09thus helping to cool the planet.
03:12However, this effect is not immediate.
03:14These particles can remain suspended for several years
03:18and spread throughout the world.
03:20Today, sophisticated equipment allows us to monitor
03:24the emissions of sulfur dioxide from space.
03:27Let's take the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991.
03:32About 15 million tons of sulfur dioxide have been released.
03:36Although this amount is considerable,
03:38it remains less than that of Tambora.
03:41Despite everything,
03:42Pinatubo has lowered the global temperature
03:44by nearly 0.5 °C for several years,
03:47as well as Tambora in its time.
03:49This may seem little,
03:51but in reality the consequences are far from insignificant.
03:54If the planet's temperature increases by only 0.5 °C,
03:58the impacts on the sea level could be serious.
04:01Experts estimate that this could lead to an increase
04:05of up to 20 cm by the end of the century,
04:07threatening to swallow up many coastal lands,
04:10with dramatic consequences for many communities.
04:14A volcanic eruption capable of cooling the planet,
04:17could it then be related to a natural regulation mechanism?
04:22Not quite.
04:24Although an eruption can actually cool the planet,
04:27it would be wrong to believe that this represents
04:29the type of cooling we need.
04:31Such temperature variations can seriously disrupt cultures,
04:35as was the case in 1816.
04:38Research also shows that major eruptions
04:41can change the precipitation regimes,
04:43causing a drought in the regions of Mousson in Africa and Asia.
04:47The Mousson of summer depends indeed on the temperature difference
04:50between the earth and the ocean,
04:52a variable that volcanic activity can alter.
04:55Interestingly, a warmer climate
04:57could intensify the cooling effects of eruptions.
05:00Experts explain that the formation and dispersion
05:03of aerosol particles are influenced by climate conditions.
05:07With rising temperatures,
05:09faster atmospheric circulation
05:11can generate smaller aerosol particles,
05:14which are more effective at diffusing sunlight,
05:17and therefore reinforce the cooling effect.
05:20Oceans also play a role in this interaction.
05:23When the ocean surface warms up,
05:25it creates a stratified layer
05:27that limits the mixture of hot and cold waters.
05:30According to Stoffel,
05:32this could mean that volcanic eruptions
05:34mainly cool the upper layers of the ocean
05:37and the atmosphere that overflows them.
05:39In addition, climate warming
05:41could have a direct influence on volcanic systems.
05:45The melting of ice,
05:46by reducing the pressure exerted on the earth's crust,
05:49could facilitate the rise of magma
05:51and increase the frequency of eruptions.
05:53In addition,
05:54the increased precipitation due to warming
05:57could penetrate the soil and interact with the magma,
06:00which could also favor eruptions.
06:03Although the idea of a cooling period
06:05due to a volcanic eruption
06:07may seem advantageous in the context of climate change,
06:10scientists warn that the consequences could be serious.
06:14The immediate repercussions could be severe,
06:17especially for the few 800 million people
06:20living near active volcanoes.
06:22A major eruption could destroy entire cities.
06:26For example,
06:27the Flegraean fields,
06:28located near Naples,
06:29show signs of growing activity
06:31and threaten the safety of nearly a million inhabitants.
06:34If you pass through Oregon,
06:36stay vigilant,
06:37because experts estimate that this state
06:39could be the theater of volcanic eruptions.
06:41Are you afraid?
06:42Rest assured,
06:43the situation is not as alarming as it seems.
06:46Oregon has more than 80 volcanoes,
06:49but none of those located on the surface
06:51cause concern at the moment.
06:53It is an underwater volcano
06:54that could erupt in 2025.
06:58The Axial underwater mountain
07:00is currently the most active volcano
07:02in the northwest of the Pacific.
07:04But it remains largely unknown to the public
07:06due to its location
07:07about 500 km from the coast
07:10and more than 1,500 m under the surface.
07:13Due to its depth
07:15and distance from the Cascadia fault,
07:17its next eruption
07:19should neither cause tsunamis
07:21nor cause major earthquakes.
07:24The data collected during these eruptions
07:26could however improve the surveillance
07:28of potentially more dangerous volcanoes.
07:30We could almost talk about a courtesy eruption,
07:32couldn't we?
07:35Predicting eruptions remains a complex task.
07:38We sometimes read alarming titles
07:40announcing that
07:41Yellowstone is about to erupt.
07:44Should we take these statements seriously?
07:47Not really.
07:48Certainly.
07:49Yellowstone is based on an active supervolcano
07:52that has experienced three major explosive eruptions
07:54over the last 2.1 million years.
07:58The last eruption dates back to about 70,000 years,
08:01while the most important,
08:03which occurred some 631,000 years ago,
08:06formed the immense caldera of Yellowstone.
08:09Many are wondering
08:11if a new eruption is imminent
08:13and, if so,
08:14when it could occur.
08:17Fortunately,
08:18scientists are developing new methods
08:20to better understand these phenomena.
08:23A recent study indicates
08:25that it is unlikely that Yellowstone
08:27will experience a new major eruption in the near future.
08:30The reason lies in the structure of the magma under the park,
08:33which is fragmented into distinct chambers.
08:36Although significant quantities of magma are still present,
08:39they are not sufficiently interconnected
08:41to allow an eruption.
08:44Previous research had suggested
08:46the existence of an immense layer of magma under Yellowstone,
08:49but the latest conclusions
08:50put this hypothesis in question.
08:52To better understand the underground dynamics,
08:55researchers have used the technique of magnetotelluric,
08:59which exploits the natural electromagnetic fields of the Earth
09:02instead of seismic waves.
09:04This method,
09:05particularly adapted to magma
09:07due to its ability to conduct electricity well,
09:10allows to map efficiently the melting rock
09:13and to better understand the underground activity
09:15in the volcanic regions.
09:17Thanks to magnetotelluric,
09:19researchers were able to draw up a detailed map
09:21of the magma under Yellowstone,
09:23thus helping them to refine their predictions
09:25about future eruptions.
09:28But what would happen
09:29if an eruption of the size of that of Tambora
09:31occurred again?
09:33This would cause a real climate chaos.
09:36Although the greatest scientists are actively looking
09:38for a solution to this scenario,
09:40they have not yet found one,
09:42which means that we are not really ready
09:44for a second Tambora.
09:46For now, however,
09:47we can be reassured.
09:49No major eruption is planned.
09:51Ouf!
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