South Africa, who are chasing their maiden Cricket World Cup, have been dominant in the league matches, barring a few blemishes. They take on five-time champions Australia in the second semi-final in Kolkata, which is under rain threat. South Africa’s record in the knockout games is not great, earning them the chokers tag. Is it justified? Coach Paddy Upton, who has been with the South African team and also part of the World Cup-winning Indian team of 2011, disagrees. He talks about South Africa’s chances against Australia, along with Gulf News experts. Watch video
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00:00Paddy, how do you expect the semi-final to pan out?
00:05That's a very good question. My honest answer is I don't know.
00:09Because you've got two teams who have probably got an equal opportunity of winning the game.
00:19Hello, everyone. Welcome to Straight Bad with Gulf News,
00:23our weekly analysis of the Cricket World Cup. I'm Shyam and with me is Satish and Jay Rai.
00:31Our guest today is Paddy Upton, who's been with our show earlier. He's the South Africa coach and
00:36he's been part of the coaching setup with India and South Africa. Welcome to the show, Paddy.
00:41Thanks very much. Thanks very much for having me back on the show. It's always good to have
00:44this cricket conversation with you guys. The second semi-final is going to be a
00:50ripper. It's got all the ingredients of a ripper, simply because Australia are
00:55five-time champions and they meet South Africa. South Africa, who are chasing their first
01:00World Cup. Paddy, how do you expect the semi-final to pan out?
01:06That's a very good question. My honest answer is I don't know.
01:10Because you've got two teams who have probably got an equal opportunity of winning the game.
01:17South Africa are possibly more the form team at the moment. When I say the form, the emphasis on
01:22team is that they're having a number of batters and a number of bowlers that have been stepping
01:27up and delivering performances. Where the Australia, obviously, they have the understanding
01:33of how to play these knockout games. They've got a lot more experience than South Africa have got
01:38to playing knockout games in the World Cups. But as a team, they haven't really been on form.
01:43They've relied to a fair degree on individual performances in certain games to get them across
01:47the line. So they will be hoping that one of the individuals can step up. Or you've got South
01:53Africa who know there's a number of individuals with bat and ball who carry form into the business
01:59end of the tournament. Satish, Paddy said about the individual performances. We have seen Juan,
02:05Marge, Maxwell all stepping up when the chips were down. We're literally hauling them to victory.
02:11But like Paddy didn't say, but inferred saying it was not a team performance.
02:19But we can never write off Australia. We said at the beginning of the tournament,
02:24even when they're losing, we said you cannot write them off. So what do you expect?
02:31We saw that even in the T20 World Cup, if you remember in Dubai, they were completely out of
02:36the picture and they came out to win the World Cup. So can we expect a repeat here?
02:41Absolutely, Shyam. That's what I'm expecting. And if you look at… Yes, there were individual
02:47performances. But if you look at the batting, almost we have Warner, Marsh and Maxwell in the
02:54top 10. That means the batsmen, there are at least a collective three batters who have been
02:58among the runs on a consistent basis. That's one. And I would say, Smith is still not fired. And he
03:05is a big match player. And he can be a danger in these types of scenarios where he will come out
03:12and play his best. So I would say batting-wise, Australia is still very, very strong or working
03:20as a team. Yes, individual performances have come in on certain matches. But on the whole,
03:25they've all been scoring runs as a collective unit. It is probably just that the bowling,
03:30you have Zampa who is in the top. But whereas the others are all way behind. So that's exactly
03:38where if there is a weakness or if there is somewhere where there is no team effort in
03:45terms of Australia, I would go with the bowling effort. But I wouldn't be worried about it because
03:51you have Stark, you have Cummins and you have Hazlewood. All have played plenty of matches on
03:59those conditions and IPL conditions. They have done well. So I wouldn't be worried about it.
04:05And another one is from the 2015 World Cup and 2021 World Cup winning team, seven members are
04:12right now playing in this tournament, which gives them that psychological advantage of being there
04:19and done that kind of a situation. So that is exactly where South Africa has been lacking. So
04:25that's why I would give Australia that edge over South Africa in terms of
04:30in the semifinals tomorrow, should there be no rain interruption.
04:36Jay, just to bring you into the picture, Sadiq just said that Australia has the bowling to do it.
04:43But if you look beyond Zampa and Hazlewood, doesn't mean much, isn't it? And not just that,
04:50Stark, he's been getting wickets, but not been the threatening self. So also is Cummins. But also
04:57Maxwell is an OK stopgap bowler, but he is not the kind of bowler who could win matches for you.
05:03But do you think Australia has the bowling to stop South Africa? Because South Africa has
05:09scored something like huge totals whenever they have batted first. Yeah, the thing is, I still
05:17believe the toss will play a very big factor because South Africa will be very keen to win
05:22the toss and opt to bat first. In that case, the batting will be really good because they will be
05:27playing with no pressure of chasing. They will have a very good target to set. And if you have
05:33seen the previous matches, they have actually done really well setting up targets first.
05:39Chasing, I think they had a very close shave against Pakistan and Afghanistan. So they would
05:45be very keen on probably batting first and setting up a big target for Australia. And when we are
05:52talking about the bowling, that's what, it again depends on the situation. If South Africa is
05:58batting second, then Australian bowling have an advantage. They have the edge to dominate the
06:03batsman because South Africa have not been that good while chasing. Most importantly, Kolkata,
06:09I think the wicket slows down a bit in the second part of the day. And with rain a big threat,
06:17we can expect a lot of turn in the later stage of the game in case the game happens and the
06:22rain doesn't play much. So the biggest advantage for South Africa for now will be the toss. In
06:29case they can get to bat first, I'm sure they have been posting really big targets, which
06:33are starting up to 400. That will be very crucial for South Africa.
06:39Paddy, just to take on what Jay said, South Africa has been scoring big. They have posted
06:45huge totals, but most of them have come when they were batting first. And two of the losses
06:50came when they were chasing. So is chasing a problem for South Africa?
06:56So, you know, the fact that it's happened sufficient times now to suggest that there
07:02is a trend, I have no doubt that that trend would be weighing to some degree in the player's mind.
07:09And yes, there is a problem at the moment. It doesn't mean that they can't overcome it during
07:13the business end of the tournament, but they do have a problem. And when one looks at the
07:16concept of batting versus bowling first, when you bat first, there isn't the scoreboard pressure.
07:22And when you're batting, there's only one individual on strike. Even the batsman who's
07:26not on strike at the other end, there's no pressure on you when you're standing at the
07:29non-strikers end. So the pressure when you're batting is on one person's shoulder and there's
07:36no very little pressure batting first. Compared to when you're batting second, there is scoreboard
07:41pressure and that scoreboard pressure literally sits on one person's shoulder. That's the bat
07:45on strike. And South Africa, with their choking reputation, I'm not sure if this is playing out.
07:50I'm sure it's somewhere in the back of their minds. And you add to that the reputation they're
07:54gaining now of struggling to chase. I think that's got something to do with individuals aren't able
08:00to stand up and really burden the shoulder responsibility of seeing a chase through to
08:05the end. For example, like Virat Kohli. Virat is the best proponent of shouldering the
08:11burden of a chase and knowing how to do it. South Africans don't have that. Whereas when you are
08:17defending with the ball in the second innings, there's actually, you're fighting together,
08:22there's 11 of you fighting to defend a total. And somewhere in the back of players' minds,
08:27you can be out in the field and hoping a bowler does this, or hoping a fielder pulls up a great
08:32catch or a great run up. So you can almost hide or you share the responsibility for winning,
08:40or succeeding in defending a total when you're in the field, compared to the pressure being on
08:44one person, the bat, that's South Africa. At this stage, I don't think they will be very confident.
08:49And you're quite right. I think it's going to be very much a case, particularly with the cold
08:53cuts, a wicket changing slightly, a bit of weather being forecast that I think tomorrow may well be
08:58a case of, or the game again between these two teams is going to be a case of one the toss,
09:03one the game.
09:06Satish, you earlier talked about how the South African bowling as well,
09:10do you think they are missing a bowler's shot in terms of a spinner?
09:17I think so, Shyam. They are relying too much on the pacers. Of course, you have three fast bowlers
09:23who have done well. They are in the top 20 in terms of the top wicket-takers. Yes, I would say
09:31because you're coming to the business end of the tournament, you would probably need one more
09:36spinner. I think they might be banking on Markram to fill that role. But I don't think that would
09:45be a good idea in a knockout game like a semi-final. So probably, they might end up playing
09:53Tabriz, Shamsi than another fast bowler. Because obviously, with the wickets slowing down and
10:00coming to the semi-finals, they would probably play an extra spinner. And if you look at it,
10:05in the world cricket, there are only two left-arm wrist spinners, Kuldeep Yadav and Shamsi. So
10:11probably, they would be wanting to use that novelty factor against Australia in the semi-finals,
10:17which could actually be a big advantage to the South African team.
10:23Jay, you said about South Africa and especially if they win the TARS fest. If they were forced to
10:32chase, do you think they could get over the Australian score? When Parikh quite clearly
10:40elucidated how the pressures work. We know South Africa has a history of choking in big matches.
10:48Do you think when they are chasing, will that choking kick in?
10:53Yeah, that can be a factor. But you know, Quinton has been in real good form. And South Africa will
11:02hope he comes good again. Because once he gets set, then South Africa have a very good chance
11:08of chasing even a big score. Because Quinton has been playing, he's been very dominant in this
11:13World Cup. He's got three centuries, if I'm not wrong. And that start is what South Africa needs
11:20if they are chasing. They have a real good batch. There's also an issue of the captain,
11:28the injury concern. So we are not sure whether he is fit. But he's still not
11:33showed that kind of form he actually is capable of. So if Quinton De Kock and this
11:40Bouma give a very good start for South Africa, then even a score above 350 also is terrible.
11:48The only problem I have seen so far during the chase and why it's gone so down the wire is
11:54because Quinton De Kock has flopped. After that, there's a run scheme coming in. And South Africa
12:00has the batting order till even Keshav Maharaj can bat in. We have seen that against Pakistan.
12:07So with a strong line-up, they basically will be relying heavily on a good start.
12:13And that I think Quinton De Kock can give them.
12:17Jay, I'll just stay on. And I just have a tricky question for you.
12:21Temba Bouma have been having a very bad tournament. So in a critical semi-final like this,
12:26do you think he should drop himself?
12:29I wouldn't say. Because I was just having a look at his stats. It's very interesting.
12:36On his day, if he comes good, he can actually turn the game around. He is capable of that. And
12:40that's the reason why they are pushing with him. Because if he gets going along with Quinton De
12:45Kock, who is already in such a good form, South Africa will have the best bet for having a very
12:51good opening slot. So I think they should push for him in case he is fit. So given his current
12:56condition, there is no actual update on the injury. So if he is fit, I would suggest he should be
13:04taken into the squad.
13:06Okay. Pari, I just got a tricky question for you too. South Africa has a history of choking.
13:13When the critical matches, they tend to come apart. What does that happen? It's not happened
13:20once or twice. It's been happening over several years in the World Cup. So why does that happen?
13:26So I think that the choking label is probably more just an unlucky marketing success than an
13:35actual thing. If we go back and look at some of the tournaments South Africa have been knocked
13:38out in, there has been genuine bad luck or things have gone against them. It's not been a case of
13:43choking. And the reality is only one team can win the final every four years. The other teams all,
13:49at some point, can be blamed for choking in the quarterfinals or semifinals or even coming second
13:53in the finals. So I think it's to a fair degree, 50%, it's an unfair label. And maybe there's only
13:5950% truth or validity in the label that they've got. And there is some scarring, but probably
14:06that scarring of the choker's label sits more in the fans' minds than in the players' minds,
14:11because there's not many of these players in the current team who are involved in any form of
14:16choke, so to say. They're a fairly young team. They're not that experienced. So I don't really
14:24think they'll suffer too much from that, the weight of that choker's label around their neck.
14:30And as I said, I think part of that label is actually, it's not necessarily valid. It's just
14:34been a marketing success, if I could put it that way. Does it impact the team psychologically,
14:40Adi? I won't say that it impacts the team. I would probably say some individuals it does impact,
14:48but I don't think it would impact them any differently to an Australian or an Indian team
14:53where players look at a game and they go, we hope we win and we really don't want to lose.
14:58And when you're really hoping to win and hoping not to lose, your mind is focused on the future,
15:03either hoping for a good result or hoping for not a bad result. As a result of having your mind in
15:08the future, that creates pressure or fear or choking. So the mechanism of choking is simply,
15:13I'm here now and my mind is worried about something going wrong in the future. And the reality is,
15:18I would say eight out of 11 players on the field in the semi-final and the final in both teams
15:23will be worried about potentially failing and will be desperate to win. And that's the very
15:29nature of pressure and fear that happens to the majority of players in these big tournaments.
15:34And we often rely on one or two individuals who don't succumb to pressure and fear,
15:40who are able to navigate their way through those difficult situations. And again,
15:44the most obvious answer is a Virat Kohli in those big moments, he understands how to get past fear,
15:51get past pressure, stay fully focused and understand what do I need to do to take my
15:56team across the line. And there's no team that's got more than two or three players in these final
16:02four now who are actually able to do that. Kane Williamson can do it, Steve Smith can do it,
16:08Virat can do it, Quentin de Kock to a degree can do it, although he doesn't have a great record of
16:14being really successful chasing. So there's not many players who can actually do it. The rest
16:21will suffer fear, pressure, and to some degree will choke, whether it plays out in the game or
16:25not. It's a different story, but if it happens in their head, I'll always guarantee that it will.
16:30Satish, I have a completely opposite question for you. Just as we talked about South Africa,
16:37like Paddy said about the mentality, Australia seems to find some way to win all the time.
16:45Yeah.
16:47Why do the... I mean, you can, like we said, we can never write the Australian side off,
16:51even when the chips are down. What makes them tick?
16:54Shaum, I think as Paddy said it in a way, it's the self-belief. They believe in that they could
17:02deliver at any time. They believe that they have the individuals who could deliver. So this is the
17:09mentality that has helped them win five World Cups so far in 50 World Cups and a couple more in the
17:17in the T20s. So basically, again, what has happened is they've also done that in the past.
17:24So that pedigree also helps them to believe that, yes, we could do it. So it's all about
17:31confidence. Once you have the confidence, I think... Just take a case in point. Like the
17:36same bowler or the same batsman is a different player in the net, where there is no out.
17:41Whereas the player is different on a match situation, especially in tougher situations.
17:47So it's all about the pressure. And if the pressure doesn't affect you, you'll be able
17:51to perform better. I think that's what the Australian teams over the years have learned,
17:56how to handle the pressure and not get affected by whatever is happening on the field and
18:02give their best and throw the kitchen sinker to the opposition, just the way
18:06Maxwell has done it to Afghanistan. From 1991 to 2007, he took...
18:11I was coming to that. You are down and out almost at that point of time.
18:16Exactly. That never-say-die spirit, that's there with every single player there. I think that's
18:23the culture that they are brought in. Maybe more to do with the way they are brought up from the
18:29younger stages to all the way up to the Australian team, I think. That's the way they play. They are
18:35the first ones to play the attacking brand of cricket after the Western days, if you look at it.
18:40From 1987 onwards, when they won their first World Cup. So I think it's a lot more years.
18:46In between, there was a bit of a lull. But yes, and again, as Paddy rightly said, you have one
18:51player whom you could bank on, on big situations. If you have such a player, obviously that gives
18:57you that extra confidence among the others, saying that, yes, even if I fail, there is this guy who
19:01will come up. The same with Steve Waugh. When you have 25-4-5, he will come and play a 100 or a 200
19:09in a Test match or one day. So again, going back to Steve Waugh, that catch reminds me of the 1999
19:17semi-final between Australia and South Africa. I mean, you just dropped the World Cup.
19:24That is not true.
19:26That's not true.
19:27That's a media creation.
19:29Yes, it was created by the media. But in all, I think it's a
19:36contrast between two balanced sides, pretty much working on the same equal
19:43composition. So I think if there's no rain, it'd be great to watch.
19:49Paddy, last question to you. Can South Africa win their first World Cup?
19:55They can win their first World Cup, yes. Obviously, if they get across the line tomorrow
19:59against Australia, we don't know who they're going to meet in the final. I guess there's a
20:04very good chance they meet India. And the only advantage South Africa will take into the game,
20:09if they do play India, is South Africa will have nothing to lose because nobody really will expect
20:15them to win other than the South African players' moms and dads are probably the only people who
20:20would genuinely believe they could win. The rest of the South Africans will be hoping you can beat
20:25an incredibly informed Indian team if they should meet in the final. Whereas India has everything
20:30to lose regardless of who they play. Today, in the game against New Zealand and in the final,
20:37India are the formed team. They've got everything to lose and whoever plays them can play with
20:41freedom without knowing that there is no expectation of our fans that we're actually
20:46going to beat this team because at the moment they're so good. So mentally, if South Africa
20:51meets India, they will have something of an advantage of nothing to lose. Although they do
20:57say, and I do believe it, that the two teams that need to be most feared is number one, the team
21:02that's full of confidence and number two, the team that's got nothing to lose. And if South Africa
21:07meets India, you've got one team that is full of confidence and another team that's got nothing to
21:11lose. So it'll be a great battle. But obviously, the India, the informed team with bats and ball
21:16is no doubt in mind. And Sharma, just to take it on, between these two teams, if you look at
21:24South Africa has got a clear upper hand because they beat, they won the last four games out of the
21:29five, six, I think. Yeah, because they came back from a two down, beat Australia at home with a
21:353-2 margin and then beat again Australia in the league quiz. So the confidence is with South
21:40Africa in tomorrow's game. Let's see. Yeah, that should make for a superb semi-final tomorrow
21:48and hope it'll live up to our expectations. That's all from us today. Thank you very much.
21:53Thank you for tuning in. Thanks, Paddy. Thanks for you. Thanks a lot, Paddy. Thank you, Sharma.
21:57Thank you. Thanks, guys. For all the latest updates and breaking news,
22:03please log on to Guf News and all our social media channels. Thank you.
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