00:00well the results are out now we know that BJP has run home to victory in
00:05Delhi but what was the reason behind it and if we take a closer look the seed
00:09shares definitely you all know that what numbers how the numbers have stacked up
00:15but when it comes to vote share my colleague Keshav and I will try and
00:19explain to you how it works and what was the margin and our Madhya Party
00:24remains unfortunate because despite you know falling down by a margin of say
00:31around 20 seats against the BJP the vote share as of now Keshav is something
00:37which is not very different from what BJP has got this time around 45.89
00:42roughly 46% our Madhya Party has maintained 43.5% of a vote share so
00:48we can say that in 3.5% only 10-20 seats have been played
00:55there has been a huge gap of around 4% due to the swing
01:00so here we see that the vote share of the common man in 2020 was 54%
01:05the common man party has come down from 54% to 43.5%
01:10whereas BJP whose vote share in 2020 was 39% this time around 46%
01:19so if we see here BJP has increased by 7% and the common man party has decreased by around 10-11%
01:30so when we take the relative difference between the two it becomes 14%
01:36so if we take the relative difference between the two it becomes 14%
01:47but when we talk about the Congress, the vote share of the Congress in Delhi was around 9%
01:58even in the last 2020 elections, the Congress had got 9% votes even though they were old
02:05even though they had put their big leaders in the field
02:09and it seemed that the Congress will clash with the BJP and the common man party
02:15but it doesn't seem to be happening
02:17the vote share of the Congress has decreased from 9% to less than 6.5%
02:25and the vote of the Congress, we always say that the common man party has got the land of the Congress
02:32but the vote share of the Congress has also been added to the BJP's account
02:41another remarkable figure we will see here is Pankaj A.I.M.I.M.
02:46the party of O.S.I.G. who didn't even fight in the last election, his vote is only 79%
02:53it seems completely insignificant, it doesn't seem to have any value in such a big 70 seat election
02:59but he had put his expectations on two seats
03:03and on both the seats, he has definitely created an impact
03:08one seat, he has helped the BJP to win
03:13and one seat, he has helped the common man party to win
03:18on the seat of Okhla, the expectations of the O.S.I.G. party were on the second number
03:23whereas in Mustafabad, another Muslim area
03:27from there, the BJP's Mohan Singh Vista has won
03:32Tahir Hussain has got much more votes than that
03:35again, we can say that this will be Tahir Hussain's personality, his character
03:38but M.I.M. has definitely put his presence on two seats
03:44and Pankaj, one more thing I am saying that from here, the path of Bihar will also come out
03:52like AIM-AIM
03:54AIM-AIM has often been touted as team B for the BJP
03:59and we have seen it happening even earlier also
04:02you are right, even in Bihar, when AIM-AIM was elected last time
04:06they also worked to cut the votes
04:09and in Lok Sabha elections, we often see that the same situation arises
04:12so if you look at this wagon wheel here
04:15the major share, as Keshav mentioned, 45.89%
04:20or almost 9% is that of the BJP
04:24Aam Aadmi Party, still giving a tough fight
04:27the huge marker over here, bagging 43.57%
04:33if we quickly take a difference, Keshav here
04:3745.89% if we take a real-time difference
04:41and 43.57%
04:44so not much of a difference, I would say
04:482.32%
04:49and this is the actual number figure
04:51but as Keshav mentions, from 2020
04:53the numbers have significantly come down for Aam Aadmi Party
04:57and there has been a boost in the BJP
04:59so when it comes to vote shares, Keshav
05:01I think it's a different ballgame altogether
05:03and two takeaways that we see from here
05:07the first one is definitely Bihar
05:09and the second one is India Alliance
05:12what happens to them
05:14it's in tatters obviously
05:16Bihar also has one party called RJD
05:20and whether it sides with Congress or not
05:22what do you think, Keshav, this time around
05:24again, Pankaj, so there is a clue hidden
05:28in the stats which we are looking at
05:32the biggest clue is
05:34look at this
05:36only 6.38%
05:38but with just this much vote share
05:40with just this much vote share
05:42with just this much vote share
05:44Congress has sunk
05:46the boat of Aam Aadmi Party
05:48Aam Aadmi Party
05:50with this
05:52vote share
05:54has got 22 seats
05:5614 constituencies
05:58were such
06:00where
06:02the candidates for BJP
06:04who win from Aam Aadmi Party
06:06their vote margin
06:08their winning margin
06:10and the voting margin
06:12of the candidates for Congress
06:14is more or less equal
06:16so on 14 seats
06:18in this competition
06:20Congress has played
06:22like a B team of BJP
06:24if Congress
06:26doesn't ruin your game on 14 seats
06:28then you get 14
06:30and plus 22
06:3236
06:34the figure that we were talking about
06:3636
06:38the figure that we were talking about
06:4036
06:42the figure that we were talking about
06:4436
06:46where Arvind Kejriwal
06:48lost by around
06:506488 votes
06:52and the same votes
06:54Sandeep Dixit has got
06:564500 some odd votes
06:58so those votes which Sandeep Dixit took
07:00could have easily helped
07:02that goes on Manish Shishodiya's
07:04constituency as well
07:06almost 14 constituencies
07:08have been like this
07:10in fact in Greater Kailas as well
07:12so there
07:14the big faces of Aam Aadmi
07:16apart from Aatish
07:18although Aatish has also won
07:20with great difficulty
07:22although Gopal Rai has also won
07:24but he was not in the limelight
07:26of the media
07:28so to ruin the big faces
07:30Aam Aadmi Party
07:32Congress has left no stone unturned
07:34now what will be the result of this
07:36initially
07:38Congress was trying
07:40that Aam Aadmi Party
07:42should give them some seats in Haryana
07:44should give them some seats in Delhi
07:46if they fight in Gatbandhan
07:48sorry not in Haryana but in Delhi
07:50Aam Aadmi Party was trying
07:52that Congress should give them some seats in Haryana
07:54may be some seats were offered
07:56but they did not win
07:58Aam Aadmi Party
08:00wanted to take revenge of Haryana in Delhi
08:02but they did not win
08:04in the beginning Congress
08:06encouraged friendship
08:08but the biggest fear of Aam Aadmi Party
08:10was this 54%
08:12vote share
08:14which from 2013
08:16they gradually grabbed
08:18in 2015
08:20and then in 2022
08:22this 54%
08:24vote share
08:26Congress
08:28withdrew
08:30Aam Aadmi Party
08:32did not want to give back
08:34the land of Congress
08:36Indi Gatbandhan
08:38stands behind Aam Aadmi Party
08:40Congress fights alone
08:42Congress in Delhi elections
08:44stood alone
08:46all the friends of Gatbandhan
08:48from Jammu Kashmir's Avdullaj
08:50to West Bengal's Mamata Banerjee
08:52all were standing behind Khejriwal
08:54but still
08:56Congress
08:58cut 50% vote
09:00and ruined their game
09:02so what will happen in Bihar elections
09:04the way Tejasvi Yadav
09:06and RJD
09:08were trying to push Congress
09:10now this will not happen
09:12Congress's bargaining power
09:14will increase more
09:16in Indy Alliance
09:18It's a
09:20political arithmetic
09:22you said here
09:24if the Congress
09:26has been relegated to such margins
09:28that now it is acting like an AIMIM
09:30there are memes going on
09:32where Sandeep Dixit is distributing sweets
09:34and people are asking
09:36why are you distributing sweets
09:38then he is saying
09:40Khejriwal was defeated
09:42so now Congress is taking the credit
09:44that we have defeated Khejriwal
09:46from 4000 votes to 4500 votes
09:48when it comes to Delhi model
09:50Sheela Dixit's name is taken
09:52with a lot of respect
09:54when it comes to political development
09:56people remember Sheela Dixit
09:58so I think
10:00Sandeep Dixit was fighting
10:02as a lone warrior
10:04but the performance was not that good
10:06and since then
10:08we have a habit
10:10that when a guest
10:12talked about 2002
10:14a lot of water
10:16has since then flown in the river Yamuna
10:18and now with the
10:20up style of politics
10:22things have changed
10:24a lot of people have changed
10:26the demography of Delhi has changed
10:28the priorities have changed
10:30now they want swanky malls
10:32they want electric vehicles
10:34also on the roads
10:36they want wide roads
10:38water supply
10:40but somewhere I feel
10:42that if we keep in mind
10:44the political issues
10:46then this whole thing
10:48that you have told
10:50where there is a crown of victory
10:52for BJP, it can be a matter of worry
10:54for India Alliance
10:56and where there is a question of Congress
10:58they need to fight their identity crisis
11:00Yes Pankaj
11:02I would like to add two more points
11:04look at this
11:08and look at this
11:10Delhi elections
11:12have given them
11:14a lesson for Bihar
11:16the way BJP's power
11:18has increased
11:22and Nitish Kumar
11:24has become famous
11:26for taking U-Turn
11:28Mr. U-Turn
11:30now here they will definitely think
11:32that BJP
11:34who is gaining their old power
11:36leaving them
11:38and going to other fields
11:40how much profit will they get
11:42on the other hand we know
11:44LJP
11:46Ram Vilas
11:48and his leader Chirag Baswan
11:50they are hard bargainers
11:52in Delhi BJP knew
11:54that these two seats
11:56BJP will lose
11:58JDU will not be able to
12:00face Sanjeev Jha
12:02in the same way
12:04LJP was hoping to win
12:06but if BJP was expected
12:08then BJP would have won
12:10BJP knew
12:12that these two seats
12:14will be lost before the elections
12:16but in Bihar
12:18to keep the upper hand
12:20in the negotiation
12:22BJP had given up two seats
12:24sometimes to get something
12:26you have to lose something
12:28so Delhi's election
12:30not only Punjab
12:32Bihar
12:34but at the national level
12:36will definitely create an impact
12:38if you look at the quantum
12:40of this election
12:42but its impact
12:44is going to be massive
12:46on the national politics as well
13:12Mr. Modi will be going to the
13:14headquarters of BJP
13:16we are expecting it to be
13:18a cracker of a speech
13:20the impact of this whole
13:22arithmetic of politics
13:24is something that will be felt
13:26and would be palpable
13:28in the days and years to come
13:30we will be back with more analysis
13:32from our data center
13:34at the headquarters in One India
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