00:00Hi, this is Bhavna and you are watching Goodreturns.
00:03There have been big events in January and February.
00:06In the US, Trump has taken over the power.
00:08After that, the US Fed meeting has also taken place.
00:11Here in India, the union budget, the most significant event has also taken place.
00:16Although if we talk about the budget, then no decision has been taken on import duty in this,
00:22due to which there was some decline in the prices of gold and silver.
00:26But now after that, a big event is happening that the tariff trade war has started,
00:33which can affect the prices of gold and silver.
00:37So how much will it affect, what will it affect, and what can be the prices of gold and silver in the near future,
00:43we will try to understand all that.
00:45We have with us Manoj Kumar Jain, who is also the director of Prithvi Finmart.
00:49Sir, thank you very much for talking to us.
00:54Sir, look, some big events have happened, and the way Trump has started the tariff war,
01:00although if we talk about Canada and Mexico, then here the 30-day stay has been imposed on tariffs,
01:06but the 10% tariff on China has been kept as it is.
01:11In response, China has also reversed it and imposed tariffs on the US.
01:17In this, sir, what effect are you seeing, what impact will it have on the prices of gold and silver?
01:21As far as the question of impact is concerned, we are seeing a positive impact here,
01:25because since the discussion of imposing tariffs has started and the trade tariff has been imposed,
01:31we are seeing that there was an environment of global uncertainty,
01:35and because of that, the demand for gold and silver is increasing.
01:40So here, as the trade war progresses, it will have global uncertainty,
01:47and because of that, the financial asset classes will be very high there.
01:52So in this way, the demand for gold and silver will increase,
01:57and we are seeing that because of which gold has reached a lifetime high in the international market.
02:02It is very close to $2,900.
02:05If we talk about silver, then the prices have also exceeded $33 here.
02:10So overall, due to the trade war, the demand for gold and silver will increase even more in the coming time.
02:17Exactly, sir, as you said, the first time prices on COMEX have exceeded $2,850 per ounce.
02:25Sir, this rally in the prices of gold and silver will continue for the whole week.
02:32What outlook are you seeing?
02:34See, it will be very difficult to predict in the short term,
02:37the kind of volatility and the statements that are coming out globally,
02:41whether it is from the US or from the European Union or from China,
02:46or from the big economies of the rest of the world.
02:50So it will be very difficult to predict in the short term,
02:53but if we take a long-term perspective, then the trend of gold and silver will remain positive.
03:01If we look at gold in the Indian markets, then the weakness that we are seeing in rupees,
03:06its additional support is being seen in gold and silver prices in the Indian markets.
03:11So in the short term, the trend will remain positive here.
03:14Although we have seen a good rally in gold,
03:18so there may be some technical corrections in the coming days.
03:22But the long-term trend will remain positive, whether it is gold or silver.
03:27In other words, as long as there is a tariff war in precious metals,
03:30the long-term impact will be seen.
03:32Plus, the weakness of the rupee will also be seen here supporting gold.
03:36Sir, if I tell you a little situational-based thing,
03:40that the way the US has given way to Canada and Mexico,
03:46for 30 days, but has given way.
03:48If such a settlement is seen between China and America,
03:52then what will be the impact on the prices of gold and silver?
03:56Look, if there is any trade deal here, then small corrections can come due to it.
04:01But uncertainty will remain, because the deal is given for a month,
04:05whether it is Canada or Mexico.
04:07There they can impose tariffs again.
04:10If there is a trade deal with China and if anything is imposed there,
04:15then they can increase the tariffs there again.
04:18We are also seeing that there are new comments from the US about Iran tomorrow
04:23that sanctions will be restricted there.
04:26And the oil supply of Iran to the countries of the world will be stopped.
04:30Because of this, once again, there was a momentum in energy prices yesterday.
04:36Because of that, inflation will increase.
04:38So that will also support the prices of gold.
04:40So this uncertainty will remain.
04:43At least I believe that this uncertainty is going to remain for the first half of 2025.
04:49Today we have seen that the report of the World Gold Council has also estimated
04:54an increase of about 25% in investment demand.
04:57So it is clearly visible that there will be uncertainty here.
05:01And because of that, the demand for investment will remain in precious metals.
05:05Sir, what other major events are you seeing in the near future
05:08that will affect the commodity market?
05:10Especially if we talk about precious metals.
05:133-4 things will be very important.
05:15First of all, we will have to keep a constant watch on the dollar index movement.
05:18Because whatever statements come from the US, whether it is about the trade war
05:23or about the Russian-Ukrainian war, or about fresh sanctions on Iran,
05:28or about tariffing on the European Union.
05:32So because of that, the movement of the dollar index should be kept an eye on there.
05:37Secondly, the US has started the trade tariff.
05:40After that, in the next month, the US-Fed policy meeting will take place.
05:46So what is the US-Fed's stance on the trade tariff?
05:50We should keep an eye on that.
05:52Thirdly, in the domestic market, the way we are seeing weakness in ruby.
05:56If this weakness increases in the coming time,
05:58then it will also be seen to support the prices of gold and silver here.
06:02So there will be a lot of factors globally.
06:05How much is China's retaliation or is there any trade deal?
06:09So China, dollar index, US-Fed's monetary policy meeting, ruby movement,
06:14all these factors should be kept an eye on in the coming time.
06:17Absolutely.
06:18Sir, although you always say that it is always the right time to invest in gold and silver.
06:24But if we talk about it, because gold is almost at its peak right now.
06:29So in this case, if someone wants to buy gold,
06:32what support level would you like to give?
06:34What will be the best time and what will be the levels?
06:37Here, the traders should wait for a little correction.
06:40But the investors, as I have always said, should keep investing in the form of SIP.
06:44Whatever the level, because gold always gives a positive return in the long run.
06:49So traders can wait for a little correction.
06:52Investors should continue their investment.
06:54As far as the question of support is concerned,
06:56we believe that now in the international market,
06:59I am talking about the comics future, which is trading at around $2,890.
07:07So we will see good support in gold at $2,810.
07:11In that regard, if we talk about the Indian markets,
07:14there will be good support in gold at around $82,000.
07:17So if there are corrections up to Rs. 2,500 from the current level,
07:21then traders should also see an opportunity there.
07:24Investors can keep investing here.
07:26There is an immediate resistance of $2,900 at the top.
07:29If prices rise above that level,
07:31then we believe that prices can be seen at $2,945 and $3,000 in the international market.
07:37In that regard, gold stands above Rs. 84,500 in the Indian markets.
07:42So this can be seen in the short term at Rs. 86,000 and Rs. 88,000.
07:47So here the momentum is positive.
07:49If there is a dip, there will be an opportunity for the trader.
07:52Investors can continue their investment in the form of SIP.
07:55Sir, if we talk about the end of February,
07:58when this month is coming to an end,
08:00then what levels will you give gold and silver?
08:02In gold, I believe that gold can stay anywhere between Rs. 86,000 and Rs. 88,000 till the end of this month.
08:08Because the way the momentum is made here,
08:11Rs. 86,000 is seen in the conservative case.
08:15If there is a trade deal here between China and the US,
08:18due to which corrections come,
08:20then there will be good support at Rs. 82,000 below.
08:23If we talk about silver,
08:25then silver is also an industrial metal along with precious metals.
08:28And silver has underperformed here in comparison to gold.
08:31We believe that a good breakout has been seen here as well.
08:34So in February, silver can go to $36 in the future comics of March.
08:41In that regard, the prices in the Indian markets can test again from Rs. 1,00,000 to Rs. 1,00,000-2,000.
08:48In February, I believe that strength in silver can be seen more than gold.
08:54So if you want to invest in gold and silver,
08:58then traders can also invest in silver.
09:01The range of 94,000-95,000 is a good range in terms of investment.
09:07And above Rs. 1,00,000-1,00,000-2,000 is seen in the short term.
09:11Sir, my next question will be about the sovereign gold bond.
09:14We were waiting in the budget for the government to make some announcement on the scheme.
09:20Because we have been seeing news since last year
09:24and it is being speculated that the government will close the scheme.
09:27Now after the budget, the media briefing was done.
09:29The finance ministry has also given full indications that it will be closed.
09:34So investors are getting a little panicked
09:38that what should they do next.
09:40They were getting 2.5% interest.
09:42Will they get it or not?
09:44So sir, what is your advice to all these investors?
09:48As far as the question of panic is concerned, there is nothing to panic about.
09:52Because the scheme that the Indian government launched,
09:55investors will get the benefits up to the maturity of the scheme.
09:58Now if you want to invest in gold,
10:02and if your corpus is small,
10:04then ETFs of gold are available here.
10:08And the exchanges, whether it is the National Stock Exchange or the Bombay Stock Exchange,
10:13if the ETF is listed there, then you can invest there.
10:17Along with that, there are also mutual funds of gold and silver,
10:20so you can invest there too.
10:22And here you can also buy lump sums and can also do it in the form of SIP.
10:26So the investors who want to invest here or were waiting for the sovereign gold bond,
10:32and if there is no new launch from the government,
10:36or if there is a hint from the Ministry of Finance,
10:41then the ETF of gold and silver is a better option for investors.
10:47And the investors can invest there.
10:50And sir, my last question to you,
10:52which I always ask you,
10:54what is your advice for investors of gold and silver?
10:57For gold and silver, the current moment,
11:00or the current scenario,
11:02the way global uncertainty is formed,
11:04then in your portfolio, give about 15% of gold and silver,
11:09so that it can diversify your portfolio.
11:12And in the challenging situation, it will also give you some positive returns.
11:16So stay invested in gold and silver.
11:18If you have not started investing yet,
11:21then this is also a good time.
11:23You can start investing in gold and silver as an SIP.
11:27And give at least 15% to precious metals in your portfolio.
11:33So you have to give 15% to precious metals.
11:38Thank you very much, Manoj ji, for talking to us.
11:42And for answering all the questions.
11:45So right now, the rally can continue in gold and silver,
11:48that is, our precious metals.
11:50In case there is a trade deal between the US and China,
11:53then we can see a little correction in the market.
11:56But because the demand for safe haven is increasing these days,
12:00then the level of gold and silver can be seen a little high in the coming time.
12:06The opportunity to invest is always good in precious metals.
12:09You can invest in it anytime.
12:11That's all for this video.
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