'This is the best moment for a comprehensive peace effort' in the Middle East, expert says

FRANCE 24 English

Visit our website: http://www.france24.com  Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English  Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/France24_en

Transcript

00:00This is Apropos.

00:03U.S. and Israeli officials have been expressing growing optimism that negotiations brokered

00:10by Egypt and Qatar could produce a ceasefire deal for Gaza by the end of the month.

00:15But they've also cautioned that the talks could fall through.

00:18Hamas said today it believed an agreement was still possible if the Israeli side stopped

00:23adding new conditions to the proposal.

00:26It comes as at least eight people from the same family, most of them women and children,

00:31were killed in the latest airstrikes on Gaza.

00:34Morgana Ayer has more.

00:38Rescuers battle against the flames and thick black smoke as they search for survivors and

00:43bodies.

00:44It's the scene of the latest Israeli airstrike which targeted a house in the Daraj neighborhood

00:50in Gaza City.

00:52This man is calling out, have mercy on us.

00:56According to Palestinian medics, at least 10 people were killed, several from the same

01:00family including women and children.

01:03We were surprised to find that most of the deceased were burned bodies and the bodies

01:09were of children and women.

01:11Civil defense crews are still searching for missing persons under the targeted house.

01:17Women were sleeping.

01:19This is not a combat zone.

01:20It is a civilian area with children and innocent people.

01:24A missile cut them into pieces while they were asleep.

01:31Funerals took place in Gaza City for people killed in recent Israeli airstrikes.

01:37Israel denies targeting civilians.

01:39It says that any harm to them is a result of militants operating in residential areas,

01:44a claim Hamas rejects.

01:46The two sides could be coming to a truce.

01:49That's according to White House spokesman John Kirby, who said there was no doubt they

01:54were getting closer.

01:55But he added there was caution to the optimism.

01:58From the Middle East, we're joined now by Henri Barkey, Professor of International Relations

02:04at Le Havre University.

02:06Thank you so much for being with us on the program this evening, Henri.

02:10Firstly, let's start with Gaza.

02:13Hopes again for ceasefire.

02:16Observers point out though that we have been at this position before.

02:21Israelis up until now haven't been able to secure a deal.

02:25Do you think there is more reason to be hopeful this time?

02:28There is more reason to be more hopeful because until now, if you remember, Hamas wanted a

02:36permanent ceasefire and the Israelis did not want that.

02:40And also Hamas was reluctant to release the names of the hostages.

02:46So I think they have agreed on these things.

02:50It's going to be a temporary ceasefire, I think 60 days.

02:54But the reason things have changed is because there's a great deal of reaction in Gaza to

03:01Hamas, because after 14 months of fighting, essentially people in Gaza are asking, so

03:08why is this happening?

03:09I mean, I'm blaming Hamas for having started.

03:12So finally, Hamas is starting to face domestic criticism.

03:18And that's very important to them.

03:21So they need to reorganize and rethink their strategy.

03:26So I think that's why a deal is possible.

03:30But as you said also, I mean, we've been here before and it's possible it will not happen.

03:38But if it's not this weekend, maybe later, but I still think there's a good chance it's

03:43going to happen.

03:44Under these negotiations, this time brokered by Egypt and Qatar, just talk to us a little

03:48bit about the role that Doha has been playing in all of this.

03:52Look, I don't know specifically what Doha is doing, but Doha is the most important Arab

03:59country in terms of support for Hamas.

04:02There's a historical relationship with Hamas.

04:05So they have a great deal of influence.

04:08And of course, Egypt also, because Egypt is next door and controls some of the access

04:13routes into Gaza.

04:16So I don't know specifically what Doha has been doing, but clearly Doha has always been

04:24the most important Hamas supporter in the Arab world.

04:29And Henri, earlier today, there was a lot of speculation about the Israeli prime minister's

04:32whereabouts.

04:33He later appeared inside the UN patrolled buffer zone inside Syria and the Golan Heights

04:39after being excused from testimony at his corruption trial, which is also ongoing.

04:46How much do you think that may or may not be influencing his decision and what is actually

04:50happening in Syria and also in Gaza at the moment?

04:54Oh, especially when it comes to Syria, I think what's happening domestically with his trial,

05:02with the indictments against him, this is very much a question of domestic politics.

05:08I mean, you've seen the prime minister being very, kind of very full of himself, very determined

05:17and basically doing whatever he wants, especially the decision that was taken by the Israeli

05:23cabinet the other day of supposedly doubling the number of settlers in the Golan Heights.

05:30That's completely a, shall we say, an act of theater rather than being serious, because

05:37first of all, nothing of the sort will happen anytime soon.

05:40This is a very long process, but it is a way of showing the nationalist part, at least

05:48of Israel, that he's strong, he's doing what he wants.

05:53And look, let's face it.

05:54I mean, he he has had a string of victories behind him, I mean, which enables him to be

06:00to take this attitude.

06:01I mean, Hamas has been destroyed, Hezbollah has been destroyed, Iran has been pushed out.

06:08And to some extent, what Israel did to Hezbollah and Iran explains why Assad collapsed so quickly.

06:16So but but he he's risking a great deal here, A, he's alienating the few friends that Israel

06:24has left.

06:25He is also alienating a new Syrian government regime.

06:32We don't know what it's going to be, but he's not making friends, essentially, I would say,

06:36with a new Syrian, shall we say, government.

06:41And this is an opportunity because Assad was an implacable enemy of Israel.

06:47So you have now a new Syria should be making some moves, some overtures to to the Syrians.

06:55Yes, he says he's not planning to occupy the territories that the Israeli army has

07:01moved in.

07:02And in fact, it doesn't make sense for for them to do so.

07:06But still, there's a way in which you can articulate your message in a friendlier, in

07:12a more welcoming way.

07:15But he he is because of the domestic problems he's facing.

07:19He's very unpopular, by the way.

07:21That's the other thing that people forget.

07:23I mean, the Israelis are fed up with him, but he controls the majority in parliament

07:30and the other parties that are with him are also in a kind of a trap because they don't

07:37want to go for elections and they don't want to bring down the government because they

07:40will lose if there are elections.

07:42Hence, it's a it's a zero sum game, if you want, that's going on in Israel.

07:49And he's making the most out of it.

07:52I don't think he's going to be successful.

07:53I think the Israelis are smart enough to at least those Israelis who don't support him

07:59smart enough to see through his what he's trying to do.

08:04But it will take time.

08:05And you've said recently that political leaders can be very decisive.

08:10But at the moment, we have the wrong leaders in many countries.

08:13We're going to have a new leader in the US very shortly.

08:17What kind of consequences do you think we'll see once Donald Trump comes back to the White

08:21House?

08:23So I think the right wing in Israel and and also

08:30maybe in this country think that Donald Trump will be very friendly to Israel.

08:35Yes, he will appear to be so.

08:38But look, let's remember that Donald Trump is very much interested in one thing, and

08:44that's himself. So if at some point in the future, there is an opportunity to have a

08:50major peace deal in the region, that even one that Bibi Netanyahu doesn't like and

08:55will oppose, you can be sure that Donald Trump will push for it.

09:00It doesn't matter whether he supports Bibi Netanyahu today or Donald Trump is likely

09:08to change politics or his position very easily.

09:12What I'm trying to say here is that Donald Trump is really an unknown quantity.

09:18You should not necessarily do a linear line from what he says today and assume that his

09:23policies are predictable three months or six months from now.

09:27Anything is anything is possible.

09:29He he he shifts very quickly and conditions actually, if you think about it, I mean, the

09:35Middle East has never been in a situation like today where Iran, which was the main

09:43country that undermined, if you want, stability or certainly created a chain of fire, if you

09:51want, from Tehran to Beirut, control has enormous amount of influence on Iraq, control

09:57Syria and and Lebanon through Hezbollah can no longer do that.

10:02So Iran is no can no longer be a spoiler, if you want.

10:06And under these circumstances, I would argue that this is the best moment for a

10:12comprehensive peace effort.

10:14It seems unrealistic maybe today because given all the fighting and all all the

10:21violence and the suffering that we have seen.

10:23However, if you look at it from a little bit of a dispassionate perspective, this is a

10:30great moment. When Iran is weak, Russia has been essentially removed from the Middle East

10:36and it's it's occupied by by Ukraine.

10:41So there's very little those two spoilers can do.

10:44And if I was Donald Trump, I would definitely push for a big peace effort.

10:54I doesn't necessarily mean it's going to succeed, but it's worth trying.

10:58And Turkey is also playing a key role in all of this as well.

11:02Is there a danger, though, that Ankara, it might overextend in a way and end up

11:06interfering when it comes to Syria between what's happening there in Damascus and the

11:12Kurds in the north?

11:16This is an excellent question. I mean, in an interesting way, Turkey may may emerge as a

11:22spoiler instead of Iran to some extent, not as not like Iran.

11:26But Turkey also might is is in danger of overplaying its hand.

11:33Turkey, you look at Turkish leaders, you look at the Turkish press, they're all very happy

11:39about the fact that everybody says Turkey is the biggest winner in in this Syrian crisis

11:46because Assad is gone and the new government in Syria will need Turkey.

11:52I mean, it makes sense because Turkey is the most industrialized country next to Syria,

11:58has all the way with all the Syrian needs in some construction industry, etc.

12:04But the Turks have a tendency of overplaying their hand.

12:08And we're seeing this now, especially with the Syrian Kurds.

12:13The Syrian Kurds are Syrians, first and foremost, and Turkey has made it clear that it

12:18wants the YPG, the Syrian Kurdish militia, essentially eliminated.

12:24But that militia is in alliance with the United States fighting ISIS.

12:30And the new government in Syria needs the Syrian Kurds as much as the rest of the world

12:36needs, because nobody wants ISIS to come back.

12:39And remember, some 40,000 ISIS prisoners are being essentially held in prisons in

12:49in northern Syria by the Syrian Kurdish militia.

12:54If they were to disappear, what do you think is going to happen to those 40,000?

13:01They'll spread out everywhere.

13:03They will undermine the new Syrian government.

13:05They will undermine Iraq.

13:07They will undermine even maybe Turkey.

13:09So it's not it's it's nobody wants the Syrian Kurds to this militia to disappear because

13:17they ensure a great deal of stability.

13:20But the Turks are very much afraid of the Syrian Kurds, not because the Syrian Kurds

13:28present a military threat.

13:30They represent essentially a strategic conceptual threat.

13:34That is to say, the Turks are very afraid of another autonomous Kurdish region on their

13:43borders.

13:44Henri, apologies for cutting across you there.

13:48I cut into your sentence, but we'll have to leave it there, unfortunately, for now.

13:51But thank you so much for being with us.

13:53That is Henri Barkey, professor of international relations at Lehigh University.

13:58That is it from us for now.

13:59Up next, it's Ion Africa.

Category

Transcript

Be the first to comment

Recommended