Professor who correctly predicted 9 presidential elections weighs in on Biden vs Trump

Hargonians tech.

Transcript

00:00All right, my next guest says, pay no attention to the new poll I'm about to reference.

00:07But it does show Donald Trump with a steady lead in a head-to-head rematch against President

00:11Biden, putting Trump at 49%, Biden at 43.

00:15But my next guest goes as far as to say that you can't cosign that poll, and even the ones

00:19showing Trump losing, and just consigning to the flames.

00:23He insists Biden is still the man to beat in 2024.

00:27Just to tell you who I'm talking about, it's Professor Alan Lichtman, who has correctly

00:30predicted nine of the last ten elections.

00:34And the one he got wrong, 2000, he argues he actually got right, since Al Gore beat

00:38George W. Bush in the popular vote.

00:40So if not the polls, what's he using as his barometer?

00:44Well, Lichtman says we should follow his 13 keys to the White House.

00:48Now, they're all listed here for you, and they include things like incumbency and third-party

00:53candidates, the state of the economy, and, of course, social unrest.

00:56Now, if six or more go against the party in the White House, its candidate will lose.

01:02Fewer than six, its candidate will win.

01:04So where do things stand right now?

01:06Let's bring in Alan Lichtman to talk all about it.

01:09Thank you so much for being here.

01:10Listen, you have not made your official prediction yet.

01:12I see the keys.

01:14But why do you think that Biden is in the driver's seat now, when all these polls seem

01:18to say he should be worried?

01:22Remember, all the polls told us that Hillary Clinton would win in 2016.

01:28I predicted Trump would win.

01:30In 1988, as late as May and June, George H.W. Bush was trailing his opponent, Mike Dukakis,

01:37by 18 percentage points.

01:39He went on to win handily.

01:42Polls are snapshots.

01:43They are abused as predictors.

01:46The keys are different because they tap into the structure of how elections really work,

01:52which is that there are votes up or down on the strength and performance of the White

01:57House party.

01:58Now, why does Biden have an advantage?

02:01We hear all this consternation.

02:03There should have been a younger candidate.

02:05But look at this.

02:06Biden wins the incumbency key, which you saw on your chart.

02:10He wins the contest key because he's not seriously opposed to the nomination.

02:16That means six more of my keys would have to fall to predict his defeat.

02:22Right now, he only loses two.

02:25Party mandate based on House elections in 2022 and incumbent charisma because he's no

02:31Franklin Roosevelt.

02:33So four more keys would have to fall.

02:35And there are four shaky keys that I haven't called yet.

02:39And this is what your viewers should keep your eye on.

02:41Forget the pundits.

02:42Forget the polls.

02:43Third party.

02:44Will RFK Jr. emerge as we get closer as a truly significant third party candidate?

02:53Social unrest, which we now see emerging at campuses.

02:57Will that be sustained?

02:58We don't know.

02:59And, of course, foreign failure and success, which depend upon what's going to happen in

03:05the Middle East and in Ukraine.

03:07All four would have to go against Biden to predict his defeat.

03:11That's possible, but not highly likely.

03:14So what about the timeline for all this happens?

03:18Obviously, as you mentioned, some aspects of it, it's up and down depending on the day.

03:23The length of these perhaps shakiness of the keys might not endure, but they could go longer.

03:29Is there a particular cutoff when these keys have to be in hand?

03:35There's no exact cutoff.

03:37Because the keys fall into place very early.

03:39I predicted the hard-to-call 2012 election in 2010.

03:44But right now, because things are so fluid, I can't make a final prediction.

03:49But I will tell you, you can have me on again, I expect to make my final call in early August

03:55like I did in 2020.

03:56Oh, come on, give me a hint right now.

03:59Tell me.

04:00Tell me everything.

04:01Pretend it's just you and me, Alan.

04:04Don't you have a whole bunch of viewers also listening to you?

04:07Well, if you're going to be technical about it, yes.

04:12I will tell you, as I said, I'll reiterate, you know, if it wasn't Biden running, Democrats

04:18would have lost the incumbency key and the contest key and would be in a terrible position.

04:22But with Biden winning those two keys and only being down four, only being down two,

04:29the four shaky keys that I pointed out all would have to fall against him.

04:33So unlike the polls and the pundits, I've told you viewers exactly what they should

04:38look for over the next several months.

04:41That's as far as I can go right now.

04:43All right.

04:44Well, I appreciate that.

04:46Just next time we'll whisper.

04:47I think it'd be great.

04:48It's just you and I.

04:49Forget all the many viewers that are watching right now.

04:52Alan Lichtman, I'll see you back in August.

04:54The true inside scoop, but it's no different from what I've told the world.

04:58Oh, good.

04:59Well, I will buy the lunch, but you only get water.

05:02Thanks, Alan Lichtman.

05:03Nice to see you.

05:04Thanks so much.

05:05Anytime, Laura.

05:06It's always a pleasure.

05:07See you in August.

05:08OK.

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