NYT_journalist_has_a_theory_on_Trump’s_biggest_liability_following_debate(360p)

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00:00Jim, where does this race stand now, post-debate?

00:04Well, any way you slice it, Harris went out and did exactly what she wanted to do.

00:09The national polls show a nice little pop, probably around a four or five percentage

00:11point lead.

00:13What would worry me if I were on her campaign is that Michigan's had a couple of polls in

00:17the last couple of days.

00:18Trump by one, Tai, her by one.

00:21The swing states still look pretty close, and you very rarely can find a poll that has

00:24one candidate or the other outside of the margin of error.

00:27The Walls pick seemed to be popular.

00:29Everybody raved about the Democratic convention.

00:31She did great.

00:32All this stuff is going right for her, but you're not seeing it generate a significant

00:36lead in the swing states.

00:37And so I think they'll be sweating all the way to election night.

00:40Nia, there are some debates that shift the momentum of a campaign, like the first Kennedy-Nixon

00:46debate in 1960, and some that don't, like all three Clinton-Trump debates back in 2016.

00:54Where do you think this race stands right now, post-debate?

00:57Yeah, listen.

00:58I think it's a dead heat.

00:59You know, it's going to come down to these six states.

01:01She's got to figure out what the easiest path to victory is.

01:05She has more paths than Joe Biden did, but it's still incredibly tight.

01:09It's a 50-50.

01:10Well, wait.

01:11Explain that to me.

01:12If, according to the CNN Instant poll, she won 63 percent to 37 and all the other polls

01:17were roughly the same, why hasn't it moved the needle?

01:21I don't think debates typically move the needle, right?

01:24You mentioned the Kennedy-Nixon debate.

01:26That obviously did.

01:27The debate we saw between Biden and Trump obviously upended this entire race.

01:32But this is the way it usually works with debates.

01:35They sort of lock in what's already in place.

01:38And what was already in place was a very close race.

01:41And they're going to try over these next, what do we have, seven weeks, eight weeks

01:46or so, to go in places, like for instance, Kamala Harris is in some of these rural places

01:51in Georgia and Pennsylvania, to see if she can eat into some of the margins among Trump

01:56voters in those states.

01:58Lulu, if this race is still up for grabs, what do Trump and Harris each need to do in

02:06the next seven-plus weeks till Election Day?

02:09Well, I think we need to see less of Trump, because the more people see of Trump, the

02:13less they seem to like him, the more incendiary things he says, and the more people are focused

02:18on his biggest liability now, which is his age.

02:22What has happened is the GOP and the Democrats have kind of flipped.

02:27Before they had, the Democrats had the problem with their candidate at the top of the ticket

02:31being unable to prosecute the case.

02:33And now it's the GOP that has a problem with their candidate being unable to prosecute

02:37the case.

02:38So he should go to the basement like Biden in 2020?

02:40I think we need to be seeing a little bit less of him, if indeed they really, because

02:45Don't forget, when people sort of had the hazy, happy memory of Trump and not the chaotic

02:51Trump, the Trump that says things that have no basis in reality, talking about dogs, people

02:58eating dogs, rather, people seem to like it better.

03:01And what about Harris?

03:02So what Harris needs to do, I think, is people need to see her more, and in unscripted ways.

03:08She needs to be doing more press conferences.

03:10She needs to just have a more casual interaction with a wider variety of people.

03:14Does Oprah count in that?

03:15I mean, Oprah counts.

03:16They're trying to create events.

03:18That's what they're going to be doing now.

03:19That's their big tactic, having Oprah, trying to see if their big, splashy, you know, friends

03:25with Beyonce and others are going to come and do that.

03:27Let me pick up on this, because CNN is reporting that the Harris campaign is more focused on

03:32creating what they call moments than rolling out detailed policy.

03:37She has, as mentioned, an online conversation with Oprah next week, and they dream of a

03:42campaign concert with Taylor Swift.

03:44Raihan, first of all, do you think that's what Harris needs to do?

03:49More moments, less policy?

03:50And what about Trump?

03:52I do think that Harris is being incredibly disciplined and careful.

03:57She's following a script.

03:59Her ad campaigns and what have you, these are doing exactly what Democratic political

04:03experts are advising her to do.

04:05Biden was a loose cannon.

04:07Trump is very much a loose cannon, but she has been sticking to the script.

04:10Do you think that's the right script, though?

04:12Because a lot of people I hear say, I want to know more specifics of what she's going

04:16to do for the economy, what she's going to do on immigration.

04:18Well, the problem is that her agenda is to the left of most of the electorate, and I

04:22think getting more specific about that could represent a risk.

04:25It would be smart of her to try to make a more explicit and clear break with the Biden

04:29presidency, but she's very conspicuously not done that in a variety of ways.

04:35Trump, in contrast, you know, look, during the debate, Kamala Harris spent 70 percent

04:40of her time attacking Trump.

04:43Trump spent less than 30 percent of his time attacking Harris.

04:48Harris is acting like an underdog.

04:51Trump is not acting like an underdog.

04:53And what Trump needs to do is zero in not on 200 messages, not on every last thing someone

04:59says and then counterpunching.

05:01He needs to focus on his script and attack the incumbent administration and remind people

05:07that he is not the incumbent who is responsible for a very foul mood of the American public

05:12right now.

05:13She's in office.

05:14And then there is the question of another debate.

05:16And at least this week, Trump was making it clear he's not interested.

05:23When a prizefighter loses a fight, you've seen a lot of fights, right?

05:28The first words out of that fighter's mouth is, I want a rematch.

05:32I want a rematch.

05:34And that's what she said.

05:36Nia, is Trump smart to say no more debate?

05:40Yes, absolutely.

05:41Because he was terrible.

05:42I mean, she emasculated him.

05:44She had him on the ropes for 90 minutes.

05:47I mean, some of it was attacks.

05:48Some of it was just triggering him with, you know, saying that his crowd sizes weren't

05:54so big and that people were leaving in the middle of the rallies.

05:57And so, no, I think he is smart to stay away from this because he doesn't want a really

06:01good moment for Harris in the closing weeks of this campaign in the way that she's had

06:06this week with this really, really stellar debate performance against him.

06:10Do you agree that Trump should stay away from another debate?

06:14And pardon?

06:15No, to paraphrase Ghostbusters, if you have the opportunity to speak before 60 million

06:20television viewers, probably another 7 million on streaming, you say yes, you take every

06:25opportunity you have to get your message out.

06:28You try preparing next time.

06:29You try having two or three bullet points you want to put for each one of them.

06:32He can't prepare.

06:33He is incapable at the moment because of his age to actually prosecute the case.

06:39And so I think it's a terrible idea for him to do a round.

06:43All right.

06:44The basement campaign, particularly with your neck and neck, isn't going to do you any good.

06:47I know.

06:48I guess the idea is that people are going to forget the traits about Trump that they

06:50don't like between now and Election Day.

06:52The only way to go out there is to go out, make the argument.

06:55OK.

06:56No, no.

06:57Great.

06:58But let me just let me ask you this.

07:01What do you think of the chances?

07:02You know, he's saying, no, no more debates.

07:05What do you think of the chances?

07:06He changes his mind.

07:08And sometime in October ends up sharing a stage.

07:10We all know every Trump decision is written on an Etch A Sketch.

07:13And at any given moment, it can be shaken very vigorously and you can end up with a

07:16different one.

07:17So if you know, my guess is if the advisers look to him, say, look, you did not do yourself

07:20any good.

07:21You can go out there.

07:22And if you bother to remember three or four points on every topic, you can actually move

07:26the ball in the right direction.

07:27Then you should do it.

07:28I think he walks around believing he's going to win by a landslide and he doesn't have

07:31to do anything else.

07:32Hillary Clinton dominated her first debate with Donald Trump in 2016.

07:36This was a pretty solid, strong performance by Kamala Harris.

07:40It was not better than Hillary Clinton's performance in that first debate.

07:43And then Donald Trump fared better in the second and third debates.

07:46I think that Trump should give it another shot.

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