Dinesh Somani's Top Commodity Bets

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00:00Welcome back to the EFNOR show.

00:14We are now in conversation with Dinesh Surbani, co-founder of Pro IntelliTrade Services.

00:20Dinesh, good morning.

00:21Thank you so much for joining in.

00:22Well, let us start off with our first question around precious metals, gold particularly.

00:29How are you trading this one, Dinesh?

00:31Yeah.

00:32Good morning.

00:33We saw gold prices rallying from the recent low of Rs. 66,600 to Rs. 71,400 or more, the

00:38rally of Rs. 5,000.

00:39The data, the prices were being supported by the better TPI and PPI data which came

00:45last week, indicating a rate cut ahead in September and probably in December that lead

00:50to the rally.

00:51Secondly, there were tensions erupting in the Middle East and that also lead to the

00:55rally.

00:56Right now, today, as of now, I think the rally is a bit overdone, trading above Rs. 2,500

01:02prices in comic gold, I expect a dip towards Rs. 71,100 and I suggest a buying level around

01:10Rs. 71,000 levels for the target of Rs. 71,900 and Rs. 72,100, keeping a stop-loss of Rs.

01:187500.

01:19But I suggest it should be a positional trade looking at the volatility, right?

01:24Right.

01:25We had an interesting sell call on base metals.

01:28I'm not surprised.

01:29You want to take me through the strategy on copper, Dinesh?

01:32Yeah, definitely.

01:33The prices declined in copper from Rs. 945 levels to Rs. 766 levels.

01:38We saw a recovery, a pullback rally from Rs. 766 to Rs. 805 levels and Rs. 811, Rs. 812

01:45was a breakdown level.

01:47So, I expect the retest of the breakdown level and there I see pressure coming up again and

01:52prices to decline from these levels to Rs. 805 to Rs. 795 levels.

01:56Rs. 816.50 should be the minimum stop-loss.

01:59Also, moving on from base metals, I quickly want to get a view from you on crude.

02:05Now, crude was also low by 1% at least on Friday in an early Asian trade.

02:10Where do you see crude headed to?

02:12Is there an opportunity to buy or would you be looking to avoid crude for now?

02:18Yeah, definitely crude prices declined mostly because neither of the tension erupted in

02:23the Middle East.

02:24There were expectations that Iran could backfire but didn't happen and the premium went up.

02:31Prices moved up from Rs. 6700 levels back to Rs. 6450.

02:36I'm talking of the September contract but I see support trending around Rs. 6300 level

02:41is MCA.

02:43I suggest to buy around Rs. 6300-6310 for the target of Rs. 6420.

02:48Stop-loss should be maintained at Rs. 6235 levels.

02:52Alright, so that's your view on crude.

02:56But Dinesh, anything that you're spotting in soft commodities?

03:00Perhaps turmeric?

03:01Any other commodity that you have on your radar this morning?

03:05Yes, definitely.

03:06I'm looking at some bright features of cottonseed oil cake and turmeric in agriculture space.

03:11Turmeric prices are consolidating in the range of Rs. 15,700 to Rs. 16,250.

03:17I see a breakout happening at this level today because the weather is very much clear and

03:23it's actually humid in most part of the producing area.

03:27So, I suggest buying turmeric at Rs. 15,100, target of Rs. 16,450 and Rs. 16,900, keeping

03:34a stop-loss at Rs. 15,800.

03:37Simultaneously, on the cottonseed oil cake, I suggest buying approximately anything around

03:43Rs. 3250 to Rs. 3220 levels, targeting of Rs. 3300-3355.

03:48Stop-loss should be maintained at Rs. 3185 levels.

03:52Hi Dinesh, thank you very much.

03:53Good talking to you this morning.

03:54Those are a few trading strategies coming in.

03:56A buy on gold, a sell on copper, a buy on crude and a buy on turmeric.

04:00And that's from Dinesh on the commodity piece.

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