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In this video, we debunk the news about NASA's simulated asteroid impact scenario and explain its truth. We explore how asteroids, comets, and meteoroids work, discuss past asteroid events, and detail NASA's current plans for planetary defense. Learn about the various methods we have to predict and prevent asteroid impacts, including kinetic, slow-push-pull, and nuclear techniques. Plus, we dive into the recent exercise by NASA and other agencies to improve our readiness for such scenarios and highlight the gaps that still need to be addressed.
In this video, we debunk the news about NASA's simulated asteroid impact scenario and explain its truth. We explore how asteroids, comets, and meteoroids work, discuss past asteroid events, and detail NASA's current plans for planetary defense. Learn about the various methods we have to predict and prevent asteroid impacts, including kinetic, slow-push-pull, and nuclear techniques. Plus, we dive into the recent exercise by NASA and other agencies to improve our readiness for such scenarios and highlight the gaps that still need to be addressed.
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00:00Namaskar Friends!
00:01On 13th April, 2029,
00:03an asteroid apophis bigger than 1000 feet
00:06will pass very very close to the earth.
00:14If it collides with the earth,
00:16it will be such a devastation
00:18that has never been seen in the history of mankind.
00:20The bomb dropped on Hiroshima
00:22will release 1 million times more energy.
00:25Tsunami waves will rise 100 meters high
00:31and the entire city will be cleansed.
00:33But not only that,
00:34on 12th July, 2038,
00:36another asteroid can collide with the earth.
00:38And look at this post,
00:40it has a 72% chance of colliding.
00:43NASA has already issued an alert
00:45and has started its planetary defense exercise.
00:48Look at this post,
00:49it's only a few weeks old.
00:50After NASA's chief,
00:51now ISRO's chief has given a warning.
00:53We can all go extinct.
00:55Oh my God!
00:56An earth-destroying asteroid
00:57is rapidly approaching the earth.
01:00ISRO chief says
01:01it is an option to migrate to Mars
01:03and all global space agencies are working on it.
01:07How much truth is there in these news?
01:09Which are the most dangerous asteroids for the earth?
01:13And what is NASA's plan here?
01:15Let's understand all this in depth
01:17in today's video.
01:24Asteroids
01:27Asteroids are also called planetoids.
01:30Because they are like small planets.
01:32They are basically some big stones
01:34that are orbiting in space.
01:35They can be 10-20 meters in size
01:37and can also be 100-200 kilometers.
01:40The smallest asteroid that exists
01:42is only 2 meters wide.
01:44And the largest is called Ceres.
01:46940 kilometers in diameter.
01:48Most of the asteroids in our solar system
01:51are found in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.
01:54Where there are millions of asteroids.
01:57The drawing of the asteroid belt
01:59in our textbooks is done like this.
02:02Looking at it, you might think
02:04that there are so many asteroids orbiting each other.
02:06But in reality, the average distance
02:08between any two asteroids
02:10is more than 1 million kilometers.
02:13Now what happens is
02:14many times these asteroids move away from this belt
02:17and come close to the earth.
02:19In such cases, we call them near-earth objects.
02:22In short, they are called NEOs.
02:24NEOs are not just asteroids.
02:26They can also be comets, meteors,
02:29meteorites and meteoroids.
02:31You might ask, what is the difference?
02:33Friends, they are all pieces of stone
02:36that are flying in space.
02:38But the way we define them,
02:40there is a difference.
02:41For example, asteroids are made of stone and metal.
02:44Comets are made of ice, stone and dust.
02:47They are also called dirty snowballs.
02:49Asteroids are found in the belt
02:51between Mars and Jupiter.
02:52Comets are found in the Kuiper belt.
02:54This belt is in front of Neptune
02:56and is far away in the solar system.
02:58When comets fly in space,
03:00they have a tail behind them
03:01which is not visible in asteroids.
03:03Typically, the size of comets can be very large.
03:05It can be 1 to 10 kilometers.
03:07And whenever a comet passes near the earth,
03:09it can be easily seen with the naked eye.
03:11But to see asteroids,
03:13telescopes are needed in most cases.
03:15In case of danger for us,
03:17a comet is far more dangerous than an asteroid.
03:19Because first of all,
03:20the speed of a comet is twice that of an asteroid.
03:23And secondly,
03:24the warning time is less.
03:25When a comet suddenly comes
03:27and impacts the earth,
03:29we won't know for a long time, unfortunately.
03:31The same thing was also shown in the film, Don't Look Up.
03:34In this film, it is shown
03:35how a 6-month warning time is given
03:37when a comet is about to hit the earth.
03:40And how the government and space agencies
03:42react to it.
03:44A meteorite is a small piece of an asteroid or comet.
03:48When a meteorite comes near the earth
03:50and enters our atmosphere,
03:52we call that meteorite a meteor.
03:54When it happens,
03:55it burns very quickly
03:57and we see a streak of light.
03:59It is also called a shooting star
04:00if you have ever seen it in the sky.
04:02When it is in large numbers,
04:04it is called a meteor shower.
04:06And if a piece of a meteor
04:07crosses the atmosphere
04:09and falls on the earth,
04:11it is called a meteorite.
04:13This is the only difference.
04:14The important thing for us here
04:16is the NEOs.
04:18Asteroids and comets
04:19that are passing near the earth.
04:21Because of which we are in danger
04:23that they may crash on the earth
04:25and the whole world may end.
04:27This danger is justified
04:28because this has happened
04:30to dinosaurs 66 million years ago.
04:38If they can go extinct,
04:39so can we.
04:41But before measuring this danger,
04:42before moving ahead,
04:43I would like to say one thing.
04:45If you take your news
04:46from such accounts
04:47on Instagram and Facebook,
04:49it would be better
04:50to stop following the news.
04:52Because this news of the 2038 asteroid strike
04:55is completely fake news.
04:59If you want to follow some pages
05:00on Instagram for news,
05:02then there are many options
05:03like The Hindu, Indian Express,
05:04Scroll.in, The Wire, News Laundry.
05:06Even our mainstream news websites.
05:08Although the standard of Indian media
05:10is not very good,
05:11this level of lies
05:12is not spread there at least.
05:14Because see,
05:15Times of India has also written
05:16an article on this.
05:17In the headline, it is written
05:18NASA warns that a planet-sized asteroid
05:20has a 72% chance of impacting earth.
05:23This headline is wrong.
05:25It is a click-baity headline.
05:26But if you read the first line
05:27of the article a little below,
05:29this has been clarified there.
05:31NASA recently conducted
05:33a hypothetical exercise
05:35to assess planet's preparedness
05:36against an asteroid impact.
05:38Actually, this 72% chance
05:40is not a finding or result.
05:42This is a hypothetical imaginary scenario
05:44that NASA has created.
05:46This was an exercise
05:47that if today we come to know
05:49that in July 2038,
05:51an asteroid is going to fall on earth,
05:54then what all can we do?
05:56This was a mock test
05:57in which more than 100 experts
05:58participated
05:59from different organizations.
06:01NASA, European Space Agency,
06:02UK Space Agency,
06:04United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs.
06:06Everyone discussed that
06:08if an asteroid
06:09will hit the earth
06:1014 years from today,
06:11then what all steps
06:12will we take to stop it?
06:14On June 20, 2024,
06:16NASA released a report
06:17in the public
06:18in which some very interesting things
06:19have been told.
06:20We will talk about them
06:21later in the video.
06:22But before that,
06:23I would like to tell you
06:24that the date of 2029,
06:25which I talked about
06:26at the beginning of the video,
06:27that date is not hypothetical.
06:29An apophis asteroid
06:30bigger than 1000 feet
06:32really exists.
06:34And this asteroid
06:35passed very, very close
06:36to the earth
06:37on April 13, 2029.
06:39Only 30,000 km away.
06:41It is less than
06:42many geostationary satellites.
06:44NASA had released a video
06:46in which the exact path
06:47of this apophis asteroid
06:48has been shown.
06:50Five years from today,
06:51the day this asteroid
06:52will pass by the earth,
06:53you will not even need
06:54a telescope to see it.
06:56You will be able to see it
06:57directly with your own eyes
06:58at night.
06:59So the question arises
07:00that what is the chance
07:01that this asteroid
07:02will actually collide
07:03with the earth?
07:04Its answer is 0%.
07:08In 2004,
07:09when this asteroid
07:10was first discovered
07:11by humans,
07:12there was a commotion
07:13all over the world.
07:14Because the first observations
07:15that were made,
07:16they said that
07:17there is a 2.7% chance
07:18that this asteroid
07:19will collide with the earth
07:20in 2029.
07:22Now, 2.7% chance
07:23is not that big.
07:25It means that
07:26there is a 97% chance
07:27that it will not collide.
07:28But when the danger
07:29is so big,
07:30then 2% chance
07:31is also very scary.
07:32That's why in those years,
07:33this asteroid was called
07:34the city killer,
07:35the most dangerous asteroid.
07:38That's where it got its name,
07:39Apophis.
07:40Apophis is a very big snake
07:41in Egyptian mythology
07:43that destroys everything.
07:45It is also called
07:46the God of Chaos.
07:47But the good news is that
07:48when scientists
07:49made more observations
07:50of this asteroid,
07:51they found out that
07:52in reality,
07:53there is a 0% chance
07:54that it will collide.
07:55A few years later,
07:56scientists thought
07:57that not in 2029
07:58but when it will come
07:59back to earth again,
08:00then the danger can increase.
08:01Like in 2036
08:02or 2068.
08:04Because in 2029,
08:05when it will pass
08:06through a keyhole,
08:07then it will pass
08:08through a keyhole area.
08:09In space,
08:10keyholes are called
08:11those places
08:12that are so close
08:13to the earth.
08:14Where an asteroid
08:15impacts the gravitational
08:16force of the earth.
08:17When in 2029,
08:18this asteroid
08:19will come so close
08:20to the earth,
08:21then it will pass
08:22through a keyhole region
08:23due to which
08:24its orbit will change.
08:25Due to the gravitation
08:26of the earth,
08:27its orbit will change
08:28due to which
08:29in 2036,
08:30the danger is more.
08:31Scientists were afraid
08:32of this at one time
08:33but today,
08:34this is not even a danger.
08:35Scientists have said
08:36that in the next 100 years,
08:37this asteroid will never
08:38collide with the earth.
08:39For this reason,
08:40it has been removed
08:41from the risk list
08:42of near-earth objects.
08:43Now you will say,
08:44what is this?
08:45Is there a risk list?
08:46Of course, there is.
08:47Space agencies
08:48around the world
08:49have made a risk list
08:50that which are the
08:51most dangerous asteroids
08:52in the future.
08:53For example,
08:54on the website
08:55of the European Space Agency,
08:56look at this risk list.
08:57When can all these asteroids
08:58and comets
08:59collide?
09:00Which is written
09:01in impact,
09:02date and time.
09:03What is the probability
09:04that all these asteroids
09:05and comets
09:06will collide?
09:07Look at this section
09:08of IPMAX.
09:09Maximum probability
09:10is written here.
09:11And in the section
09:12at the back,
09:13the diameter is written
09:14as to how big
09:15this asteroid or comet
09:16is.
09:17All this is the
09:18wonder of data science
09:19that today,
09:20we can predict
09:21the paths of
09:22all these asteroids
09:23so accurately.
09:24But not only
09:25space exploration,
09:26but data science
09:27is being used
09:28in many different
09:29fields today.
09:30Automobile,
09:31finance,
09:32space exploration,
09:34And if you want
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10:31lecture.
10:32Let's come back
10:33to our topic
10:34and in this
10:35risk list,
10:36let's look at
10:37the top 3
10:38most dangerous
10:39asteroids in
10:40detail.
10:41Number 1 is
10:422023 VD3 asteroid.
10:43This 2023
10:44in its name
10:45tells us that
10:46this asteroid
10:47was discovered
10:48in 2023.
10:49It is a very
10:50small asteroid in
10:51size.
10:52It is only 11-24
10:53meters in size.
10:54It can collide
10:55with Earth
10:56on 8th November
10:572034 and
10:58the probability
10:59of collision is
11:000.25%
11:01in percentage.
11:02This is a
11:03very big chance
11:04actually.
11:05This is the reason
11:06why it is
11:07on number 1
11:08in the list.
11:09But because
11:10its size is
11:11very small,
11:12it is not
11:13that dangerous.
11:14The chances
11:15are that
11:16even if it
11:17collides with
11:18Earth,
11:19it will fall
11:20on a place
11:21where there
11:22are no people
11:23and no damage
11:24will be done.
11:25In 2013,
11:26there was
11:27an incident
11:28when the
11:29meteorite
11:30hit a building.
11:31It came
11:32out of nowhere.
11:33A bright
11:34speck in the sky
11:35soon streaking
11:36across the horizon
11:37followed by an
11:38almost apocalyptic
11:39scene.
11:40A blinding flash
11:41of light
11:42and then
11:43all hell broke
11:44loose.
11:45The diameter
11:46of the meteor
11:47was 20 meters
11:48and a very
11:49powerful shock
11:50wave was
11:51released.
11:52Some buildings
11:53were damaged,
11:54some people
11:55were injured
11:56but no one
11:57died.
11:59Most of them
12:00suffered cuts
12:01from shattered
12:02windows.
12:293.
12:30Asteroid
12:312008 JL-3
12:32Estimated
12:33diameter
12:3423-50 m
12:35Potential
12:36impact date
12:371st May
12:382027
12:39Probability
12:40of impact
12:411 in
12:426,711
12:430.01%
12:44chance
12:45of collision
12:46All the
12:47scientists
12:48working in
12:49these space
12:50agencies
12:51are doing
12:52a great job
12:53because
12:54they don't
12:55want to
12:56take such
12:57risks.
12:58They
12:59believe
13:00that these
13:01are the
13:02only asteroids
13:03that we
13:04have discovered
13:05so far.
13:06It is
13:07possible that
13:08more asteroids
13:09will be
13:10discovered
13:11in the
13:12future.
13:13Comets
13:14do not
13:15have a
13:16good
13:17calculated
13:18trajectory.
13:19We
13:20will not
13:21get a
13:22warning
13:23window
13:24about
13:25comets.
13:26I will
13:27tell you
13:28about
13:29a few
13:30of them.
13:311.
13:32Lincoln
13:33Near-Earth
13:34Asteroid
13:35Research
13:36It was
13:37started in
13:381996.
13:39It is a
13:40collaboration
13:41between
13:42NASA,
13:43MIT
13:44and
13:45the
13:46USA.
13:47It uses
13:48two 1-meter
13:49telescopes and
13:50a half-meter
13:51telescope.
13:52Every
13:53year, it
13:54The USS Catalina Sky Survey.
13:56Established by the University of Arizona in 1998,
13:59which uses two big telescopes.
14:01Its measurements are so precise that in 2008,
14:04they found an asteroid which was only 4 meters in diameter.
14:07And accurately, they predicted
14:10at what exact time and day this asteroid will fall on Earth
14:14and where exactly.
14:1519 hours after their prediction,
14:17this asteroid fell in the desert of North Sudan
14:20and at the same places where they predicted.
14:23Third is PANSTARS,
14:24Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System.
14:27It is present in the Pacific Ocean in Hawaii
14:29and it uses the world's largest digital cameras
14:33to find asteroids.
14:35The images captured by this largest camera
14:37are of 1.4 billion pixels.
14:40And the fourth is ATLAS,
14:41Asteroid Terrestrial Impact Last Alert System.
14:44It is also present in Hawaii
14:46and scientists have made it as a final warning.
14:49If all the other systems are unable to find an asteroid,
14:52if an asteroid is accidentally found,
14:54then this system will give us an asteroid impact warning at the last minute.
14:58Every night, this system can scan the entire sky twice for any danger.
15:03So overall, if we look at it,
15:04this defense system of our Earth is very good and strong.
15:07But sometimes it fails.
15:09For example, sometimes small meteors
15:11get undetected and impact the Earth.
15:15Like what happened to the Chelyabinsk meteor in February 2013.
15:19This 20-meter-tall meteor was unable to detect any system on time.
15:23That's why for such scenarios,
15:24the civil defense component becomes very important.
15:27NASA has talked about this on page 12 of its mock test report.
15:31If a small asteroid or meteor is about to hit somewhere,
15:35it is very important that at the right time,
15:37disaster management plans are activated with international coordination.
15:41But what will happen if a big asteroid is about to hit?
15:46There are three strategies to deal with it.
15:49First, kinetic methods.
15:51Second, slow push and pull methods.
15:53And third, nuclear methods.
15:55Out of these three, the first, kinetic method is the only way
15:58which has been successfully tested in real life.
16:01In this, we send a spacecraft
16:02which hits the asteroid and changes its path.
16:05That is, changes its orbit.
16:08It is a very simple and effective method.
16:09Its practical experiment was done two years ago
16:12in NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test.
16:15On 26th September, 2022,
16:17a 170-meter-tall dimorphous asteroid
16:19was far away from Earth in space.
16:22And NASA's spacecraft was taken and crashed on it.
16:31This asteroid was not a threat to us.
16:33It was just an experiment to see
16:36if doing this really changes the orbit of the asteroid or not.
16:40An instagraph video was also taken, which you can see on the screen.
16:43And after that, when NASA saw the result,
16:45the asteroid's orbit had actually changed.
16:48The same experiment is going to be done by China's National Space Agency next year.
16:51In 2025, they will take their spacecraft
16:54and crash on a 30-meter-tall asteroid
16:57and try to change its path.
16:59The second method is slow push and pull.
17:01In this, we slowly change the orbit of the asteroid.
17:04Solar energy can be used for this.
17:07A spacecraft goes near the asteroid
17:09and concentrates the Sun's rays on the asteroid
17:12and vaporizes a part of the asteroid.
17:14Due to this reaction, a small amount of gas will be released
17:17which will cause a slight thrust on the asteroid.
17:20And gradually, the asteroid will change its orbit.
17:22This happens naturally on asteroids
17:25when any asteroid passes near the Sun.
17:27But when this is done by sending a spacecraft,
17:29the only fear is that when the vaporization
17:32of the stone present on the asteroid happens,
17:34that stone may interfere with the optical system of the spacecraft.
17:38The third method is nuclear.
17:40Literally, send a nuclear bomb to the spacecraft
17:43and destroy the asteroid.
17:49It sounds very cinematic,
17:51but realistically, it may never be used.
17:54There are two reasons behind this.
17:55First, using a nuclear bomb in space
17:58can cause a lot of legal, international, geopolitical problems.
18:02And second, when an asteroid is destroyed,
18:05its pieces will scatter all over the place
18:07and we don't know which orbit those pieces will follow.
18:10It is possible that a piece may fall on the Earth
18:13due to its explosion.
18:14But this method is still under consideration
18:17because if an asteroid is very large,
18:20like if an asteroid is more than 10 km in size,
18:23the same size that extincted the dinosaurs,
18:27then other methods may not work so well
18:29because the size of the asteroid itself is so large.
18:32The mock test that NASA did a few months ago
18:34talked about all these things.
18:36Exactly how to deal with an asteroid
18:39that is going to hit the Earth after 14 years
18:42and has a chance of 72%.
18:44The good news is that 81% of the participants
18:47who were participating in this mock experiment
18:49believed that they were ready to deal with such a danger.
18:53There are only a few gaps
18:55that different scientists have raised
18:57regarding such scenarios.
18:58For example, one gap was said
19:00that we have only tried one method so far,
19:03the kinetic method.
19:04We should test this kinetic method many more times
19:07so that we can be sure that it will work.
19:10This was the 5th meeting
19:12to discuss such a hypothetical asteroid strike.
19:15Before this,
19:16such meetings were held in 2013, 14, 16 and 22.
19:20It was named as
19:21Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise.
19:25And in the John Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory,
19:27they met about 100 experts.
19:29So, all in all,
19:30there is nothing to worry about.
19:32Firstly,
19:33there is no such big asteroid in the next 100 years
19:35which has a 0.01% chance of hitting the Earth.
19:39Secondly,
19:40our Earth's defense systems
19:42are becoming more advanced with time.
19:44In the year 2028,
19:45NASA will launch a space telescope
19:48named Near Earth Object Surveyor.
19:50It will detect such asteroids
19:51while being outside the Earth.
19:53So, our detection systems will improve even more.
19:56And thirdly,
19:57if we find an asteroid
19:58which can hit the Earth,
20:01then we already have systems to stop it.
20:05So, stop believing these fake news.
20:07And if you are interested in the topic of space,
20:10then I have made many more videos on space.
20:12There is a complete playlist.
20:13You can watch it by clicking here.
20:15Like this video on wormholes.
20:18How interstellar time travel can be possible through wormholes.
20:21You can watch it by clicking here.
20:23And you can find the link of Scalar's live masterclass
20:25in the description below.
20:26Thank you very much.
20:30NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
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