Nifty Celebrates Exit Polls | NDTV Profit - video Dailymotion

NDTV Profit

Watch Nifty Celebrates Exit Polls | NDTV Profit - NDTV Profit on Dailymotion

Transcript

00:00All right, we're watching the election trade and while markets are completely celebrating

00:13what has come out in the exit polls, it's important to understand the poll of polls

00:16and their outcome in a little more detail.

00:18Amitabh Tiwari and Shankar Iyer are now joining us to break it all down.

00:22Welcome to both of you and, you know, great to speak with you this morning, which is really

00:27very exciting morning.

00:28Shankar, let me start, you know, with your take with the poll of poll numbers that we've

00:32seen.

00:33Now, most of the commentary, at least to everyone that we've been speaking since this morning

00:37is that they underestimated the numbers 2014 and 2019.

00:42Should we assume they're doing the same?

00:44I'm talking about the average polls in 2024 as well.

00:48Well, you guys are market people, so you would understand the play of momentum in these things.

00:56So the momentum could have swung either ways.

00:59I think in 2019, people sort of miscalculated the effect of the national security question

01:08on the minds of voters.

01:11In this time, I think that the momentum may have been exaggerated.

01:14I'm not very sure whether it is an underestimation.

01:20What happens technically in these things is that when you convert the vote share into

01:26seats, you assume a certain level and that assumption is basically a hunch.

01:35It's an art.

01:36It's not a science.

01:37It's not arithmetic.

01:39So when you do that, you tend to sort of move either ways.

01:43My sense is that the exit polls have sort of calibrated the momentum, which is always

01:53the smart thing to do because you could move either way.

01:57But in reality, if this is the momentum, if the BJP is sweeping Odisha, doing so well

02:04in Bengal, doing so well in Karnataka, and the alliance is doing very well in Andhra

02:11Pradesh, then I think that sweep should visit the numbers in Uttar Pradesh also.

02:18So you might have an upward swing in that sense.

02:23On the flip side, there's still a lot of questions.

02:27People are questioning the Bengal numbers and the Odisha numbers and whether they are

02:32there.

02:33So one of the polls actually for the assembly elections in Odisha has shown a hung, hung

02:39assembly and then it has shown a sweep for the parliament.

02:44That's not that's not usually how that's not typically how Odisha votes.

02:49Yeah.

02:50So, I mean, last year, last election, they did vote split ticket and Amitabh must be

02:56having details for the last six, seven elections at least.

02:59So the thing to do is to assume that the trajectory is right, that the numbers may

03:08shift maybe by a couple of dozens.

03:13So I assume that it's 20 seats here or there.

03:20That's where the final number should be.

03:23Yeah.

03:24So if you look at it from the perspective of what the market was seeing very, very closely,

03:28number one, does BJP top its 2019 tally?

03:32And does it at the very least, base case scenario is that BJP has more than 272 on its own.

03:38And then everything over and above that is sort of a bonus, which is why perhaps this

03:43is the response that you're seeing in the markets today.

03:45But Amitabh, I was just going through, you know, what you've put out on social media

03:51and we'll pull that up.

03:52We made that graph.

03:53You've put out gains and losses as per the exit polls in each of the seats.

04:00And I was recalling our conversation when we talked about the path to 400.

04:04What would the path to 400 look like?

04:07And the exit polls seem to have actually followed that.

04:12So what you're seeing on your screen is a plus or minus per state figure for the NDA

04:19and for the India alliance compared to 2019 as per the poll of polls.

04:23So according to this, for example, Andhra Pradesh huge gains, 15 seats up, Assam, that's

04:28for the NDA, Assam up two, Bihar losing six seats, Goa, Haryana, Haryana losing three,

04:35Goa up one.

04:36I thought Maharashtra was interesting as per your assessment, Amitabh, losing 12 there.

04:40But big gains in Andhra, big gains in West Bengal as per these polls, at least five seats

04:47up.

04:48And of course, Odisha.

04:50Now, you know, my question to you, Amitabh, is how does this change the whole picture?

04:56If you're really going to see the BJP having a seat in Kerala, making more inroads into

05:02Tamil Nadu, and of course, Andhra, the alliance seems to have worked.

05:06That changes the national picture and perception of the BJP as well into term, a possible term

05:11three, isn't it?

05:12Yeah, I mean, if you see the numbers, the entire strategy was predicated on that they

05:19have to maintain almost 90 to 100% of what seats they had won in 2019.

05:26And some losses were expected in battleground states, largely Western and Northern India

05:32where they have maxed out.

05:34However, gains were also expected in the south of India and east of India.

05:38So they have adopted a look east or a south policy.

05:41So we are seeing, as per polls, substantial gains in West Bengal, Odisha, and also substantial

05:49gains in Andhra because of the new alliance and minor gains in Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

05:56So what it does is that if these trends and results hold true, even critics would now

06:03accept that BJP is a pan India party.

06:07It's not just limited to North, Central and Western regions of India, and it has MPs across

06:13states because Kerala and Tamil Nadu, they have not been able to open their account for

06:17a long time now.

06:20Exit polls generally get the direction right in terms of seats tally.

06:25They might be here or there depending upon how the vote share margins and the swings

06:30work.

06:31But it seems to be an optimistic case and sort of a leading to a management case wherein

06:38whatever BJP would have thought would happen in this poll is likely to be, or is rather

06:46getting depicted in the exit polls wherein they are expecting to compensate for losses

06:52where they have maxed.

06:54And I recall the discussion we had, a 10% loss of seats from its base of 303 is very

07:01natural normal that happened in 2019 also.

07:04And we are seeing a loss of 34 seats.

07:06So that's roughly 10% of what they had got.

07:10Anything beyond that would have been in a danger zone.

07:13But it seems that the polls are predicting that we are within that buffer zone and the

07:19gains are likely to come from Southern India.

07:23So then let me move it to a forward looking situation of if these exit polls are correct

07:29and directionally I think broadly everyone agrees that this is going to depict the kind

07:34of results we are seeing, the numbers could vary a little here and there, except of course

07:39opposition parties were saying that this is, you're going to see completely something else

07:43on June 4th.

07:44We'll wait and watch.

07:45What does it mean for the next five years politically?

07:48Let me come to you first Amitabh and then of course I'll come to the political and policy

07:52question to Shankar.

07:54Politically what does this mean?

07:55Does this mean the opposition space seeds even further?

07:59You have a very strong Modi led BJP and in terms of decision making, it becomes even

08:05more entrenched?

08:07In terms of decision making, it becomes more entrenched and we could see some policy initiatives

08:12which have been there for a long time in the lurking.

08:16And on the political side, there will be question marks over Congress party's ability to lead

08:22any alliance.

08:23I think if the Congress does not get anything more than 75 seats, then we could really see

08:31the supporters of the Congress party looking for alternative in the next five years up

08:37to the next round of elections.

08:39And we could also see that this alliance which has been cobbled up together just ahead of

08:45the national elections might not hold together.

08:48We could see regional parties charting their own course of action because mind you in the

08:53next five years, we are going to see 30 state elections and in state elections we've seen

08:58that the BJP has had a mixed record, almost 50-50 winning 50 and losing 50 to regional

09:03parties and the Congress party also in some states.

09:07So we could see a lack of unity amongst the opposition parties, regional parties charting

09:13their own course, parties like Aam Aadmi Party or some other parties trying to take up the

09:18space of the Congress party, serious question marks on the Congress party's leadership to

09:25tackle and handle the new BJP under the leadership of Modi and Amit Shah.

09:33Yeah, Shankar, in terms of what are the big set of policy moves that we can see, we've

09:38already got some sort of insight from what the Prime Minister has written today, you

09:44know, post the exit of the 48-hour meditation, talking about scale, scope, etc.

09:50Talking about how to re-look at the definition of reforms.

09:54If you were to read the tea leaves, Shankar Iyer, what are the major changes that we could

09:58see if our target is now very clear, Vixit Bharat by 2047?

10:03If you look at Mr. Modi's track record of the last 10 years, barring the episode of

10:10demonetization, there have been no sudden jerk moves or disruptions.

10:15So he believes in incremental stuff.

10:19The first thing to recognize is that he will respond to the political landscape more than.

10:32I think you went mute.

10:34Yeah, he will respond more to the political landscape rather than what is the chatter

10:42on Main Street or Dalal Street.

10:44So there are elections, major elections in Haryana might be there, Himachal, there might

10:49be elections, there is a major election in Maharashtra, which is a large state.

10:53So the responses will be there.

10:54Mr. Modi will also be acutely aware of the fact that there is distress at the bottom

10:59of the pyramid, which was visible all over the election campaign.

11:02It's also visible in the GDP data.

11:04So I expect that there will be a combination of policy decisions.

11:10So you guys sort of, I mean, the market likes to talk more about CapEx.

11:16And for the life of me, I don't know why everybody in the market calls it CapEx because

11:21capital is not capital, it is capital.

11:23But anyway, that aside, so the market likes CapEx.

11:28Mr. Modi will also try to prop up consumption.

11:31So I expect some kind of major move to prop up consumption at the bottom of the

11:37pyramid. There will be a move to garner more revenue.

11:43So I think there will be an attempt to fix the change in the capital gains regime, which

11:50the finance minister has spoken earlier.

11:52Right. They will, you know, the period thing might happen.

11:56There will be also an attempt to fix the problems of the GST, petroleum fuel might go

12:02into GST from the states.

12:04That is a welcome move for the markets and consumers, but not so welcome for the state

12:12governments because one more kind of revenue for them is being taken away.

12:16So if you add up all of this, I don't think that anything that has happened in the last

12:23five years will be changed.

12:25I think there will be more focus on infrastructure.

12:27Right. You do realize that India needs a lot more infrastructure.

12:33I think there will be some attempt to bring in a new kind of delivery mechanism for

12:40welfare. I think we have to wait for the budget.

12:43I think there will be an assessment.

12:45So the one big black box in the government, nobody in the government also knows.

12:50We do know what the central government spends on welfare.

12:54There is no number for the state governments, all state governments put together.

12:58So when these numbers are put together, there might be a review of all the welfare

13:02measures across the country.

13:04Maybe more targeted, maybe more targeted welfare measures to alleviate, you know, rural

13:09consumption, etc.

13:10But yeah, interesting times ahead, you know, yeah, interesting times ahead, absolutely.

13:16Interesting times ahead. Thank you so much, Shankar.

13:18Thank you so much, Amitabh.

13:19We'll see both of you, of course, back tomorrow when the numbers are really out, because

13:24like I said, markets are already celebrating, etc.

13:27But the big event is yet to unfold and we have continuous coverage right here on NDTV

13:31Profit.

Nifty Celebrates Exit Polls | NDTV Profit

Category

Transcript

Recommended