Politics Unpacked: Rwanda flights and the 2024 Budget

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00:00 [MUSIC PLAYING]

00:08 Hello, Rafe Blackburn here, National World Politics Editor

00:13 in Westminster with another episode of Politics Unpacked

00:17 at the start of the week.

00:19 Now, just over my right-hand shoulder, just out of shot,

00:23 George Galloway is holding his first press conference

00:27 as the new MP of Rochdale.

00:29 I've just watched as he's been sworn in to the House of Commons.

00:34 And he is likely to make things quite difficult

00:37 for his old employers, Labour, and the party's leader,

00:41 Keir Starmer.

00:42 Now, the other night at the by-election,

00:44 George Galloway said that Starmer

00:46 would have a heavy price to pay for the war in Gaza.

00:50 Remember, Labour now supports a ceasefire that's

00:52 quite previously calling for a humanitarian pause.

00:57 And with all the discussion around words, protests,

01:02 extremists, and MP safety, Galloway

01:07 is only likely to ramp up the rhetoric even further

01:12 around this incredibly divisive issue of the Middle East.

01:16 And his press conference just now, he said he's going to make

01:19 Gaza great--

01:20 sorry, he's going to make Rochdale great again,

01:23 echoing the comments of one Donald Trump.

01:27 So he's certainly likely to ramp up the rhetoric

01:31 and increase the pressure around the Middle East on Keir Starmer.

01:36 Now, on Friday, Rishi Sunak gave a speech

01:39 when he talked about extremist impression on our democracy.

01:42 He's implied that it's to do with the pro-Palestine

01:46 protests, although he hasn't outright said that.

01:50 And this Saturday, we have another protest going on,

01:55 a big protest here in central London in favor of Palestine.

02:00 So how George Galloway intervenes

02:02 and what happens at this protest could

02:04 have a big impact on both Rishi Sunak's extremism policy

02:09 going forward and also on Keir Starmer, the Labour leader.

02:14 Now, George Galloway is not the main political event this week,

02:18 as much as he would like to be.

02:19 That is, of course, the budget, which

02:21 is coming up this Wednesday.

02:22 And it could be the last major fiscal event

02:24 before the general election next year.

02:27 And it is really key for Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor Jeremy

02:30 Hunt, and the Conservatives, as they

02:32 are hoping that it will change their absolutely dire poll

02:35 numbers, which could lead to a bit of a wipeout

02:39 at the next general election.

02:40 Now, backbench Conservatives are really

02:42 pressing the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to cut taxes,

02:46 as they think this will get voters on side.

02:49 However, despite lots of hints from Sunak, Hunt,

02:54 and other people in the government

02:55 about the possibility of cutting taxes,

02:57 as we've got close to the budget,

02:59 it looks like the amount of money

03:01 they're going to have to play with--

03:02 that's what we call fiscal headroom--

03:05 is much less due to some forecasts

03:09 by the independent office of budget responsibility, which

03:12 assesses the budget and the Chancellor's fiscal plans.

03:17 So Hunt does not have much money to play with.

03:21 We were originally told that there could be income tax cuts

03:25 coming up.

03:26 However, those are steadily looking more likely.

03:28 And he might cut national insurance once again,

03:31 something he did in the autumn statement.

03:34 One thing you might also see is the government and Jeremy Hunt

03:39 stealing one of Labour's key policies,

03:41 that is to remove the loophole which

03:44 allows non-DOMs to avoid paying full tax.

03:49 And that would work two ways.

03:51 It would raise a bit of money, and it would also

03:54 get rid of a large funding source of a number of Labour's

03:56 policies.

03:59 The main question is, will this move the dial?

04:02 If he does announce tax cuts, will it

04:04 help the Tories' poll numbers?

04:06 Because in actual fact, opinion polls at the moment

04:08 show that voters are far more keen on protecting

04:13 public spending than actually bringing in tax cuts.

04:16 And if Hunt does bring in any of these tax cuts,

04:20 it is likely that departments' mental spending

04:23 would be cut as the government just does not have much money.

04:27 The second thing which I'm keeping an eye out

04:29 is, will the government bring in any policies which

04:33 will help young people?

04:34 We're looking at the housing market and that kind of thing.

04:37 The last autumn statement, there's basically

04:38 nothing for younger voters.

04:41 So I'm going to keep my eye out on that this Wednesday.

04:45 Will we see flights take off to Rwanda this spring?

04:49 That is what Rishi Sunak is pinning

04:52 a lot of his electoral hopes on.

04:54 The government still say they hope the flights

04:56 would take off this spring.

04:58 And this week could go a long way in going towards that.

05:03 The Rwanda legislation, the Safety of Rwanda Bill,

05:06 which is where Parliament will declare Rwanda is safe for the UK

05:11 to send asylum seekers, is currently

05:14 in the House of Lords.

05:15 And it's about to go through a stage which

05:17 is called the ping pong, which is where the House of Lords,

05:20 the unelected upper chamber, makes amendments to the bill

05:24 and then sends it back to the House of Commons.

05:26 Now, this ping pong can go back and forth three times

05:29 before the House of Commons, as it's been democratically

05:31 elected, can effectively override the House of Lords.

05:36 And so that means that the bill could be passed

05:38 by around the 18th of March.

05:40 Now, that is quite an important date

05:43 that gives Rishi Sumac a few days to mull over.

05:47 And then he could decide if he wants

05:48 to call an early election on the 2nd of May

05:52 to tie in with the local elections.

05:54 So if he does think flights will indeed take off,

05:56 then that might spur him on to call that early election.

06:00 He has to call it six weeks before May 2nd.

06:03 Yes, this is old Parliament, six weeks before May 2nd.

06:06 So that is why this bill being passed

06:08 and the opportunity of a flight to take asylum seekers

06:11 to Rwanda getting off the ground is key to whether there

06:14 could be an early election.

06:15 I personally think it's unlikely.

06:18 If I was a betting man, and I'm not,

06:20 I would still be putting my money on an October election.

06:24 But yeah, we are getting closer to, you know,

06:29 Sumac having to make a decision either way.

06:31 Remember, even if the bill gets passed,

06:34 there's still no guarantee the flights will take off

06:36 in this, you know, hunt scheme, which has so far cost

06:40 hundreds of millions of pounds.

06:42 There could still be further legal challenges,

06:44 and that would put Rishi Surak in a really difficult position

06:46 with his backbenchers who already think he's caved

06:49 to the courts too far with this legislation.

06:53 Keep an eye on the National World Politics page this week,

06:56 where we'll bring you the latest updates on the budget,

06:59 what it means to you.

07:00 You can also subscribe to the weekly politics newsletter,

07:04 which comes out on a Sunday

07:05 at the National World Newsletter page.

07:08 Thank you very much for watching.

07:09 I'll see you next week.

07:10 (upbeat music)

07:12 [BLANK_AUDIO]

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