- 2 years ago
- #Sensex, #Nifty trade flat
- #ManappuramFinance & #TataConsumer in focus
Hersh Sayta brings you small and midcap stocks to keep up with on 'The SMID Show'. #NDTVProfitLive
- #ManappuramFinance & #TataConsumer in focus
Hersh Sayta brings you small and midcap stocks to keep up with on 'The SMID Show'. #NDTVProfitLive
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TVTranscript
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00:50 - Good morning and welcome to the small and mid cap show
00:54 here on NDTV Profit.
00:55 I'm Harsh Saita.
00:56 We have two very special guests on our show today.
01:00 So stay tuned.
01:01 First off, we have VP Nand Kumar of Mannapuram Finance
01:05 to talk to us about the numbers,
01:07 as well as of course, the IPO of its MFI business.
01:11 But first off on the numbers,
01:13 good morning and welcome to NDTV Profit, sir.
01:16 - Good morning.
01:18 - So I want to understand the first piece
01:22 is with regard to margins.
01:24 Your margins have gone up.
01:26 You've moved from gold to non-gold lending,
01:29 or rather you've increased your non-gold lending.
01:32 And that particular business seems to be growing
01:35 at a fairly fast clip.
01:36 What should one make of these yields now at 22 and a half
01:42 percent and are these margins going to be
01:45 the steady state margins going forward
01:47 or is there scope for further expansion?
01:49 - So what we are trying to do is to protect
01:54 our net interest margin.
01:55 So if there is an increase in the borrowing costs,
02:02 then only it will move up.
02:05 What we have an intention is to protect the net interest.
02:10 - Sure, understood, sir.
02:12 And so with regard to the risk on non-gold finance
02:17 that you are giving out,
02:23 what is the kind of risk that you are ascribing
02:25 to this particular portfolio?
02:27 What is the kind of credit costs that you're expecting
02:30 on this portfolio?
02:31 - So our virtual finance as well as the MSME.
02:41 The credit cost is lower than the market.
02:46 Virtual finance, the credit cost is similar
02:51 to those in the industry.
02:53 So it is not more than that.
02:56 So we expect the asset quality to remain at this level
03:02 and we are trying to improve upon that.
03:04 The selection, et cetera.
03:08 So we expect the credit cost to not drop.
03:13 - Right, sir.
03:15 And so therefore, what is causing the spike in GNP?
03:18 It is your non-gold portfolio
03:20 or is it coming from the gold portfolio?
03:22 - Gold portfolio.
03:25 There were a few customers who are good customers.
03:28 They wanted some more time for redemption.
03:32 So we thought we'll carry that.
03:35 And we postponed the disruption for one or two months time.
03:40 So all these will be addressed during this quarter.
03:45 And that will not create any headache.
03:47 - Understood.
03:49 And so with regard to, therefore,
03:52 your recoveries from some of these customers,
03:57 when do you expect to start to see it
03:59 starting to trickle in?
04:02 - So these customers we pay
04:05 during the proceeding part of this quarter,
04:07 we are expecting the collection from these NPAs.
04:10 - Sorry, sir.
04:15 So when can we expect it to start to come?
04:18 - Yeah, this quarter itself.
04:20 - Oh, this quarter itself.
04:20 So Q4, you mean.
04:22 Sorry, apologies.
04:24 Understood, understood.
04:25 Got it.
04:26 And therefore, NPAs would go back
04:27 towards roughly the 1.6 odd percent mark.
04:31 Is that gross NPA number?
04:33 - Right, right.
04:34 We are making efforts to bring it down.
04:37 - Understood.
04:40 And so how should your asset quality,
04:43 therefore, evolve over a period of time?
04:46 Would you guide for a credit cost number
04:49 on your overall portfolio?
04:50 Is there something that you generally put out?
04:54 - No, we expect to maintain the credit quality.
05:00 Yeah, we are trying our level best to improve upon that
05:04 and take it to the previous quarters.
05:08 - Right, so and so growth has come back for you
05:10 in a significant way.
05:13 This very strong growth number, 27% nearly on your AUM.
05:17 Is this kind of a number now going to be sustainable
05:21 given that gold is also doing quite well
05:24 and non-gold is obviously growing quite fast on a lower base?
05:30 - We are expecting the same business trend
05:33 to do in the last quarter.
05:34 - Sure, so 25% kind of a growth number
05:39 over the next three years, would that be realistic?
05:41 Would you therefore double your book
05:43 in maybe three years from now?
05:45 - Yeah, that is what our efforts are on.
05:50 - Sure.
05:50 So with regard to the RWAs being tweaked,
05:54 what is the kind of impact that's had
05:56 on one, your cost of funds?
05:58 And second, what is also the impact
06:02 on your capital adequacy
06:03 and on the way in which you are now distributing business?
06:08 - Our capital adequacy is fine.
06:11 And we have a plan to raise equity
06:18 from the market in Aksarwal.
06:21 We have filed the DRHP
06:25 and we are expecting clearance without punctuality.
06:29 That's our expectation.
06:30 So our dividend policy, there is no much states
06:37 this quarter.
06:38 This quarter we are in this 5% up to 90%.
06:43 So the payoff still remains below 20%.
06:47 There won't be any capital adequacy issue.
06:49 Regarding the cost,
06:53 now the policy rates are stable.
06:55 Even yesterday, it remained stable only.
07:00 And the forecast of inflation
07:05 for the next year is 90% lower.
07:10 So we feel like it's an indication
07:13 that the cost of borrowing will come down.
07:17 The policy rates would come down over a period of time.
07:23 So we don't expect much increase,
07:25 even if there is an increase.
07:27 We hope that it will not go beyond the 10 basis points.
07:32 So we hope for the stability here at least.
07:36 - Got it, sir.
07:39 And I also want to try and understand
07:42 how your loan mix will evolve over a period of time.
07:45 Currently, you're still focused on gold.
07:50 As you go more towards non-gold,
07:52 where will your gold to non-gold portfolio mix be at,
07:56 say, two to three years from now?
07:58 - In the standalone, gold portfolio remains around 70%.
08:06 So, and in the major non-gold,
08:12 that is the amount of oil,
08:14 we plan to raise capital from outside.
08:16 So it will grow on its own.
08:20 So there will be a dilution on account of
08:23 fresh capital base,
08:25 even though we don't intend to sell our share.
08:30 So, in the standalone,
08:33 it will take more time to reach 50/50.
08:37 So we don't protect fixed time line.
08:41 We are trying to grow gold on also.
08:43 Gold on our expectation is around 8 to 10% growth.
08:47 Year on year, we have grown around 11%.
08:50 And we expect 8 to 10% growth
08:53 the current year also.
08:54 So we have some quarters,
08:57 it remains flat, but that is the usual trend.
09:00 So these are all some seasonal impact
09:03 will be there all the time.
09:05 So we expect that the quarter 3 performance
09:10 will be the expectation of Q4 also.
09:15 So we are very confident about
09:19 a steady, healthy growth in the coming quarter.
09:24 - Sure, understood.
09:27 So I will now come to Asarwad,
09:30 because that's something you touched upon,
09:31 but I want to try and understand this
09:33 a little bit more in granularity.
09:35 So of course, you are in active engagement
09:39 with the regulator with regard to the listing of this MFI.
09:44 Or rather your NBFC, if I can call it.
09:49 So talk to us about the kind of timeline
09:53 that you are looking at for a resolution here.
09:56 - So you need to understand our limitations
10:02 with regard to the sources of all this.
10:09 But our expectation is always positive.
10:13 - Sure, understood.
10:16 And you would be also part selling
10:21 a part of your stake in the entity as well,
10:26 or will it be a completely a fresh issue?
10:28 - No, as disclosed, we have no intention
10:32 to sell our function.
10:35 So the issue is intended for the growth
10:39 of my group of business in that company.
10:43 So we expect the dilution with this expected
10:48 to be well below 20%.
10:50 - Sure, understood.
10:54 So it's been a pleasure interacting with you.
10:56 Thank you for giving us all of that perspective
10:58 on Manapuram and the way forward for the company
11:01 as well as the NBFC,
11:03 which is very close to listing it seems.
11:06 But yeah, and wishing you all the very best for that.
11:09 - Thank you, thank you so much.
11:12 That was of course, VP Nandkumar of Manapuram Finance
11:15 talking to NDTV Profit with regard to their numbers.
11:18 The stock taking a bit of a knock 2% lower in trade.
11:21 But after this, we have a very special interaction
11:24 with you, Sunil D'Souza, so of Tata Consumer.
11:28 And we'll speak to him with regard to results
11:30 as well as acquisitions, organic, inorganic, all.
11:34 And do stay tuned for that on the other side
11:38 of this very short break.
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14:51 - Welcome back, you're watching the small and mid cap show
15:00 on NDTV Profit, I'm Harsh Saita.
15:02 We're gonna switch focus to Tata Consumer,
15:05 not exactly a smaller mid cap anymore,
15:07 one lakh crore plus in terms of its market cap.
15:10 The stock has been on a tear,
15:11 it's up nearly 50 plus percent
15:14 over the last 12 months or so.
15:16 And it declared its Q3 numbers,
15:18 lots happening within the company,
15:20 even with regard to acquisitions.
15:23 Of course, a one time exceptional item
15:25 of around 91 crore hitting the profit of the company
15:28 this time around, but outside of that,
15:30 if I exclude that, largely the numbers were much better
15:34 than the street was really penciling in,
15:37 especially in terms of operational metrics
15:40 and profit after tax.
15:41 I have with me Sunil D'Souza, who's the MD and CEO.
15:44 I have the pleasure of inviting him on NDTV Profit.
15:47 Welcome, sir.
15:48 - My pleasure to be here.
15:50 - So, sir, I wanna try and break your numbers down
15:54 a little bit more.
15:56 You know, the top line is roughly 3,800 crore.
16:01 How much of this is your traditional business
16:05 versus if I can say your new businesses
16:07 in so far as Nourishco, Soulful, et cetera is concerned
16:12 and your new acquisitions that you've made?
16:15 - So first of all, before I comment on that per se,
16:19 just to point on the results that you mentioned,
16:21 I think we delivered a decent set of results,
16:23 close to a double digit top line, 26% EBITDA growth.
16:27 If I take up the exceptional that you mentioned,
16:30 31% profit after tax,
16:32 and the exceptional was something pertaining
16:34 to 25 years ago, even before we acquired Tetley.
16:38 As we seeking to move pension liability
16:40 in the UK off balance sheet, when we did details,
16:43 we figured out there was something
16:44 which was not accounted for.
16:46 It's a one-off provision that we made,
16:48 but our ongoing business,
16:49 there is absolutely no impact on it.
16:51 We had volume growth across all the businesses.
16:54 India packaged beverages 2%, foods was 5%.
16:58 We had growth on international revenue growth of 11.
17:01 Growth businesses, and I'll come to your point
17:03 on the growth businesses, 42% growth.
17:06 Margin expansion, volume growth
17:08 and margin expansion across all the businesses.
17:11 EBITDA was at a 15.1.
17:13 Now we're in the 15% plus bracket.
17:15 We are right now, I would say broadly
17:17 in the ballpark of the peers.
17:18 We were lagging when we started life four years back.
17:21 Working capital, huge focus brought down by seven days.
17:24 So our cash, which was at end of Q3,
17:27 sitting on a balance sheet,
17:28 close to 3000 crores up by 40% versus last year
17:31 as a result of all this.
17:33 Innovation continues to fire 5.3% versus 3% last year.
17:37 Now, specifically coming to your point
17:39 about what is the contribution of growth
17:41 and total businesses.
17:44 In the India portfolio, the growth businesses
17:48 which used to contribute to,
17:50 when we started off, it was single digits,
17:52 close to single digits.
17:53 Last year in the same quarter, it was 13%.
17:56 Now they contribute to 17% of the growth.
17:59 We do expect by the end of this year,
18:02 fiscal year, to exit with contribution of about 20%.
18:05 Sampan will be hitting close to 900 to 1000 crores.
18:09 Narisco, the ready-to-drink business,
18:11 will be close to 1000 crores.
18:14 So very, very good traction there
18:16 and improving margins.
18:18 Now, just as a point,
18:20 we have not included any of our acquisitions here as of yet.
18:24 We have closed Capital Foods effective 1st of February
18:27 and the February and March numbers will be consolidated
18:30 with Capital Foods there.
18:32 By February 15th,
18:34 we expect to finish more or less the entire front-end integration.
18:37 We've already started harmonizing CNFs,
18:39 distributors, salespeople.
18:42 And I would say 100 days from February 1st,
18:45 we aim to complete everything including organization
18:48 and the back-end.
18:51 Organic India, we had guided for end of March,
18:53 early April sort of closing.
18:55 So that is still in work in process.
18:58 So understood.
18:59 If I have done the math right,
19:01 based on FY20 for possible projections,
19:06 we've had around 5% of your revenue
19:10 will be contributed by Organic India
19:12 as well as by Capital Foods in FY24 roughly
19:19 on a 15,000 crore base,
19:21 probably 750 odd crore in terms of top line
19:23 from both of those.
19:24 If I'm not wrong, you can correct me if I'm wrong.
19:27 Where do these go by FY26 if I can ask you
19:30 in terms of top line, these two businesses?
19:33 So more or less you're in the ballpark of the percentages
19:38 and I think we'll carry on from there.
19:41 But both these businesses immense growth potential.
19:45 So number we've always said we will do acquisitions
19:48 providing their a strategic fit and a financial fit.
19:51 Strategically Capital Foods just expands my entire
19:54 foods business onto a completely different platform
19:57 in terms of value addition.
19:58 Very very strong positions of number one
20:00 and number two everywhere and a good backbone
20:05 of ethnic exports links with some
20:07 of the biggest ethnic retailers globally.
20:10 The Organic India takes us into a space
20:13 which is growing for the future.
20:16 Organic is the way to go India and international.
20:19 We get herbal supplements,
20:20 which we never had in our portfolio.
20:21 Fantastic gross margins.
20:23 Overall both the businesses 55 plus sort of gross margins
20:27 and both of them we bought for very aggressive top line
20:30 growth as well coupled with the attractive gross margins.
20:33 Now just as a perspective,
20:35 I think we said we have a headroom of about 10x
20:39 on Capital Foods.
20:41 If I get to all the numeric outlets
20:43 that I have in my portfolio,
20:45 how fast we'll get there.
20:47 I think ball is in our court.
20:48 Organic India.
20:49 Sorry, sorry for interjecting.
20:52 How fast do you get there?
20:54 So we've shown the board how fast we can get there
20:58 and how fast we can create value.
21:00 Both these businesses pass muster on the internal IRRs
21:06 that we have.
21:07 So we have aggressive plans.
21:09 Sure, but okay.
21:12 Sure.
21:13 I get your point and and therefore
21:15 where should these businesses be by FY 26
21:18 on the top line front?
21:20 Is there is there some kind of visibility on that?
21:23 So internally we do have the numbers.
21:25 We're still working through some finer details
21:28 as we're doing the integrations
21:29 because we've got to relay the entire front end
21:32 and do those numbers.
21:33 In Organic India,
21:34 we've got to understand a little bit more
21:36 from the international space as well
21:38 because that is another huge growth area,
21:40 but I can leave you with it will be significantly accretive
21:44 to where we are in TCPL,
21:46 which itself we were targeting double-digit growth
21:49 and EBITDA margins ahead of top-line growth.
21:52 Sure.
21:53 And so very quickly,
21:54 where should top line be at by FY 26,
21:57 given that some of these are still to play out.
22:00 So like I said,
22:02 the growth businesses themselves as today is 20%
22:07 we have guided for saying this 20 will go to 30%
22:11 growing at a 30% going forward.
22:14 Understood.
22:15 Got it.
22:16 Okay.
22:17 And with regard to margins,
22:18 you know, 15% is what you've clocked this time.
22:21 You always had a target of doing that 15.
22:24 You've done that.
22:24 So many congratulations on that.
22:26 Now with regard to that number going forward
22:29 with some of these integrations,
22:31 profit-making businesses,
22:33 efficiencies starting to kick in,
22:35 the kind of scale that you offer some of these businesses
22:39 that you've acquired.
22:41 Can we say that margins will only go up from here on?
22:44 So directionally margins will go up from here on.
22:48 I can't guarantee quarter by quarter
22:50 because there will be a bit of volatility,
22:52 but even in the slightly longer short term
22:55 for a term that I might use or a medium longer term,
22:58 we will increase margins.
23:00 Like I said, both these businesses,
23:02 accretive gross margins,
23:03 we have the ability to take out costs
23:05 in the middle of the P&L
23:07 and therefore add to our EBITDA margins.
23:09 With the 15%,
23:11 while we had put it as a number,
23:13 it's not where we are happy with.
23:15 When I look at peer sets,
23:16 I mean, they are significantly ahead of us
23:18 and we do aim to catch up.
23:20 So 20% would that be your target
23:24 maybe over the next two years?
23:25 I wouldn't say two years per se,
23:28 but yes, in the medium to longer term,
23:30 directionally that is where we would want to head.
23:33 Understood.
23:34 And with regard to your capital raise in terms of equity,
23:37 how should one look at it?
23:40 So post the raise,
23:42 what is the kind of ROCE
23:44 that we would expect from Tata Consumer?
23:47 See, ROCE has always been a bugbear for a long time
23:50 in Tata Consumer historically,
23:52 but we've always maintained
23:54 that as long as we can grow profitability,
23:56 we will solve the ROCE problem.
23:58 Just as a perspective,
24:00 if I take last quarter itself on the base,
24:02 I mean, and I'm still not counting the acquisitions,
24:05 our ROCE moved up by 260 bps, right?
24:08 And standalone, I mean, directionally,
24:11 that would be the number
24:12 that we would improve year on year.
24:14 But now with these coming in,
24:16 obviously there is a little bit of a reset
24:18 and we will start from scratch.
24:19 But remember, we are building a business for the long term
24:23 and we do believe that over a period of time,
24:26 we will get to base ROCEs
24:29 compared to a lot of other companies.
24:31 Understood.
24:32 And therefore, what would the knock on ROCE be for FY25?
24:35 And the fundraise, I'm assuming, will be in FY25.
24:38 The fundraise would be in FY25.
24:41 While it has been approved by the Tata Consumer Board,
24:46 there's still work to do with the promoters,
24:49 working with the banks.
24:50 We would expect about four months
24:52 to be there in the market.
24:54 Once that comes in, yes, the capital base does go up.
24:57 But remember, these are highly accretive businesses.
25:00 And therefore, while there will be a short-term blip,
25:03 and we have said that while cash EPS,
25:06 there won't be too much of a movement.
25:08 In fact, it might be slightly positive in the first year.
25:10 Overall EPS will be a bit of a dip in the first year,
25:13 but then it will come back very quickly in a year or two.
25:17 Sure.
25:18 Understood that.
25:19 Of course, a broader conversation,
25:21 much warranted with you, Mr. D'Souza.
25:23 For now, that's all the time we have
25:25 on the Small and Mid-Cap show on NDTV Profit.
25:28 Thank you so much for coming in, speaking with us,
25:30 giving our viewers all of that perspective.
25:32 Thank you very much.
25:34 That was, of course, Mr. Sunil D'Souza,
25:37 who is the MD CEO at Tata Consumer,
25:41 on the back of numbers.
25:43 But with that, we're completely out of time
25:45 on this edition of the Small and Mid-Cap show.
25:48 Thanks so much for watching.
25:49 More on the other side, ASK Profit.
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