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NDTV Profit

- Global news flow & cues - Stocks to watch, trade setup - F&O strategies   Samina Nalwala, Niraj Shah and Tamanna Inamdar bring all this and more as we head towards the 'India Market Open'. #NDTVProfitLive

Transcript

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00:01:15 - Hello and welcome to India Market Open.

00:01:22 Good morning.

00:01:23 - We call it a good omen.

00:01:24 - Good morning.

00:01:25 (laughs)

00:01:26 Global Q is a slightly negative this morning,

00:01:28 but I think the big budget is behind us.

00:01:30 Big leg of the earning season is also behind us.

00:01:33 I'm not sure what Qs this week are gonna be.

00:01:36 - Yeah, maybe the RBI policy for the week at large.

00:01:38 But ahead of that, lots of things to digest today for sure.

00:01:42 - Absolutely, a lot of numbers over the weekend.

00:01:45 The big budget event is done,

00:01:47 but all eyes now on whether MPC and Shakti Kantadas

00:01:51 carries forward the baton

00:01:53 that finance minister has handed to him.

00:01:55 I'm gonna get to the global Qs in a sec,

00:01:57 but just a quick update on what you will see

00:02:00 in about 15 minutes from now.

00:02:02 Remember NDTV Profit had the first and exclusive interview

00:02:05 with finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman,

00:02:08 and we will be breaking down what the key points are

00:02:12 and the key takeaways from that interview.

00:02:14 Now, having said that, global Qs would have seemed positive

00:02:17 till about say a couple of hours ago

00:02:19 when Jerome Powell did an interview with CBS's 60 Minutes,

00:02:22 and sort of a dampened spirits where he says

00:02:26 that the idea of rate cuts or the pace of rate cuts

00:02:30 will not be as fast as markets are expected.

00:02:33 Now, having said that, let's tell you what happened

00:02:34 at least over the weekend on Wall Street.

00:02:37 Friday's close was good for the markets, for the US markets.

00:02:41 13 out of 14 weeks, they have been on an upswing.

00:02:44 Good numbers, especially from the tech pack

00:02:47 has done that for the key indices.

00:02:49 The January jobs report is an important factor.

00:02:52 It's come in hotter and way hotter than expected.

00:02:56 35,000 plus, even your December numbers

00:02:59 have been revised upwards sharply.

00:03:01 So that's telling you this is an economy

00:03:03 which is looking strong.

00:03:04 Again, not a very positive Q

00:03:06 if you're expecting interest rate cuts.

00:03:09 We saw that playing out in the yields as well,

00:03:11 which are back above 4% and at 4.07% in fact.

00:03:16 So there was a uptick over there.

00:03:18 Now let's come to what Mr. Powell has said

00:03:20 and why that has spooked markets,

00:03:22 and you'll see that play out in Asia as well.

00:03:25 So he said fewer cuts expected than market expectations.

00:03:28 He's like, by March, we'll have a clearer picture.

00:03:31 So reiterated some of the things he said

00:03:33 in the press conference,

00:03:34 but it has had some of a dampening,

00:03:37 somewhat of a dampening effect on Asia.

00:03:39 And we'll just pull up Asian markets quickly

00:03:41 before I hand it to Neeraj for the trade setup.

00:03:45 And you're seeing apart from the Nikkei, Shanghai down 2%,

00:03:49 but then China has its own set of problems.

00:03:52 So we have to factor in those as well.

00:03:55 All in all, I think a mixed sort of a Q over there, Neeraj.

00:04:00 The market will maybe react more to negative news

00:04:03 because all the positive news is priced in.

00:04:05 - You could argue that.

00:04:06 The other question is that does the market force

00:04:08 the Fed's hand as opposed to what the Fed is saying?

00:04:11 And we won't have March for sure,

00:04:13 but can we have an earlier than the 4Q 2024 rate action?

00:04:18 That is the key to be seen.

00:04:20 But for our markets, the going was very good

00:04:23 until the second half of Friday.

00:04:24 And you saw that sharp selling after,

00:04:26 actually not even second half, earlier than the second half,

00:04:29 but you saw the sharp selling that came in

00:04:31 for the markets in the second half.

00:04:33 That kind of spoiled the party market-wide,

00:04:35 except for PSUs and what's happening in the PSU spaces

00:04:38 only to be seen to be believed.

00:04:40 But if you just take a step back and look at,

00:04:43 let's say since December, December second week, if you will,

00:04:47 and just look at the Nifty chart,

00:04:48 you will see that the Nifty is wedged in this 800 point band

00:04:52 and lest 800 points sound a lot,

00:04:54 it is a 3% band on the 22,000 mark, 3% the entire band.

00:04:59 So this very, very narrow range that we've been in

00:05:03 for almost two months now.

00:05:04 So while we may think about what the market will do

00:05:07 on a given day, frankly, the market has done nothing

00:05:09 in the last about 50 odd days, except for more in this band.

00:05:13 And very likely that, I mean, most setups

00:05:16 that I've read over the weekend speak about pretty much this.

00:05:19 Nobody's a clear answer.

00:05:20 Stop losses around 21,100, 200,

00:05:22 highs at about whatever, 22,000, 22,100,

00:05:25 or the latest life highs that we've done in Friday session.

00:05:28 So that's about it.

00:05:29 The pocket to watchers, PSUs, of course,

00:05:33 they almost seem to be in an unstoppable mode.

00:05:36 The oil upstream companies is one more space

00:05:41 that you've got to watch today,

00:05:42 but PSUs by and large, viewers, is the pocket to watch at

00:05:45 because, I mean, most experts are saying

00:05:49 that the PSUs are rising even after they are selling them,

00:05:51 and therefore, maybe trailing the stop losses higher

00:05:54 on some of the PSUs is probably the best way to do it.

00:05:56 Look at that, three months, 50% return

00:05:59 for the nifty PSC index, and even in Friday session,

00:06:02 guys, Samina, Tamanna, just the kind of gains

00:06:05 that some of the PSUs made,

00:06:06 despite the fact that the market came off, right?

00:06:09 Look at everything from our Shipping Corporation of India

00:06:11 to NBCC to SJVN to NHPC to PPCL,

00:06:15 very strong price action,

00:06:16 and the data will be up on your screen,

00:06:18 very strong price action, very strong volume back buying.

00:06:21 BPCL itself had volumes which are about three and a half

00:06:24 times the one month mark for delivery,

00:06:27 essentially just the delivery,

00:06:28 so serious delivery-based buying in PSUs.

00:06:31 And we've seen that through Jan.

00:06:32 OMCs generally have been in a very sweet spot,

00:06:35 to say the least, right?

00:06:36 But I think one quick question,

00:06:37 you mentioned Tamanna, and I think this is some data

00:06:39 we picked up as well.

00:06:40 The long-shot ratio has actually increased

00:06:44 from 22 to 32.5% on Friday,

00:06:48 and this is as FBIs have actually liquidated

00:06:50 short positions on Friday specifically,

00:06:53 and aggressively built some long positions in.

00:06:55 So if there are any positive triggers

00:06:57 we're watching out for, this one could be something

00:06:59 that traders may take some heart from.

00:07:01 But in terms of stocks, a whole bunch of them,

00:07:04 I'll start with the biggest talking point

00:07:05 all weekend has been PTM.

00:07:08 The stock again will be seeing activity

00:07:10 from the word go in early trade.

00:07:13 A couple of updates that have come in,

00:07:14 PTM this morning has clarified that its company

00:07:17 and its related entities are not facing

00:07:20 any investigation for money laundering from the ED.

00:07:23 This all comes amid RBI action against its banking arm.

00:07:27 The company's also said categorically denies

00:07:30 any investigation by the ED against PTM,

00:07:32 its associates, founder, or CEO for money laundering.

00:07:36 I remember CAIT has advised traders

00:07:38 to switch from PTM to other payment apps.

00:07:41 The RBI's action against PTM payments

00:07:44 was taken following reports of non-compliance

00:07:46 and supervisory concerns.

00:07:48 Brokerages all through Thursday to this morning

00:07:52 continue to downgrade the stock.

00:07:54 An update on the stock is that Morgan Stanley,

00:07:57 in fact, Singapore, has actually picked up .79% stake

00:08:01 at an average price of 487 on Friday in PTM

00:08:05 for a total worth of 247 crores.

00:08:08 This was bought for an unknown client, an unknown FBI.

00:08:12 Details, of course, could be asked by SEBI

00:08:15 if they want to know who this client is for Morgan Stanley.

00:08:19 Apart from that, the trading limit on PTM

00:08:21 has also been reduced from 20% to 10%.

00:08:24 So a good possibility you may see some selling pressure

00:08:27 on the counter, but the cap on PTM now stands at 10%

00:08:31 after a 40% decline the stock has seen

00:08:33 over the last two days.

00:08:35 Well, the other one you want to keep on your radar

00:08:37 this morning is SPI.

00:08:38 Numbers, Ward, of course, saw a dip of 35%,

00:08:43 so a big hit is what we've seen on the numbers.

00:08:45 But when you look and do a deep dive into those earnings,

00:08:48 they actually don't seem as disappointing.

00:08:50 Couple of key takeaways, SPI has provided 7,100 crores

00:08:54 towards a one-time increase in pension liabilities.

00:08:57 Margins were also down due to repricing of deposits.

00:09:00 But remember, the management has indicated

00:09:02 that most of the repricing is now behind them.

00:09:05 The bank is also looking to grow advances

00:09:07 at the rate of 14% to 15% and deposits at 12% to 13%.

00:09:11 They have a very healthy corporate loan book,

00:09:14 the pipeline of which is about 4.6 trillion.

00:09:17 Capital advocacy will not impact their growth,

00:09:19 and this is what the management has indicated

00:09:21 after its earnings were reported.

00:09:23 They're also looking at fundraising

00:09:24 through the 81 bonds over this quarter.

00:09:27 A bull and bear case for the counter, SPI, first up.

00:09:31 Remember, their gross and net performing assets

00:09:33 have fallen 2.42% from 3.14,

00:09:37 and net non-performing assets are also down to 0.64

00:09:41 versus 0.77.

00:09:43 Valuations are very compelling.

00:09:44 It trades at less than two times book value

00:09:47 and hasn't really performed in the last couple of months,

00:09:50 if you've noticed.

00:09:51 The bear case, of course, for SPI remains

00:09:53 that there is an employee wage hike,

00:09:55 which has now been revised to 17% from 14%.

00:09:59 So that could, again, impact the next quarter earnings on SPI.

00:10:02 But all in all, guys, you want to come to SPI?

00:10:04 Because while on the face of it looks disappointing,

00:10:06 a deep dive indicates that actually it's

00:10:08 a good quarter for SPI, or at least the outlook

00:10:10 looks relatively promising.

00:10:12 - I mean, you said it all.

00:10:13 The only thing is the standalone book, as you said.

00:10:15 Standalone bank at about 1.1 or 1.2 times 25 adjusted book.

00:10:20 The only pickle, the fly in the ointment,

00:10:22 is that there's been significant long buildup

00:10:24 in the last 20-odd sessions, I think,

00:10:26 if the data serves me right.

00:10:28 Longs added since Jan mid.

00:10:30 The Y is up about 14%, and it's close to one-year high levels,

00:10:34 about two times above standard deviation.

00:10:36 So there's a bit of a long position out there.

00:10:38 - I have a suspicion already that--

00:10:39 - Don't know if that kind of unravels a bit.

00:10:40 - No, I just wanted to make a point on Paytm,

00:10:42 and of course we'll come more closely on it.

00:10:45 But whatever negativity was there on Friday

00:10:47 has just gotten 10x worse over the weekend.

00:10:51 Because now you have reports of an ED investigation.

00:10:54 - But they've categorically denied that this morning.

00:10:58 There seems no positive light right now.

00:11:00 But we'll talk more about that.

00:11:02 - The only thing is that the regulator

00:11:04 has reduced the trading limit from 20 to 10%.

00:11:07 So hopefully that will arrest the fall to some extent.

00:11:10 But one quick stock before I hand it over to you, Tamanna,

00:11:13 is Tata Motors.

00:11:14 Remember, this has been such a talking point all of last week.

00:11:17 The stock performance has been outstanding.

00:11:19 It took over the market cap from Maruti.

00:11:22 Now this clearly retrospectively

00:11:23 comes with good enough reason.

00:11:25 Numbers have been phenomenal for Tata Motors.

00:11:27 They've posted a very solid quarter.

00:11:29 For what we've seen,

00:11:31 they've recorded a 137% rise in profits for the quarter.

00:11:36 Growth was driven by strong operating numbers.

00:11:38 EBITDA for the quarter is up 59%.

00:11:41 Margins have expanded 300 basis points.

00:11:43 Brokerages, especially the Lifes of Macquarie,

00:11:46 have actually upgraded the counter

00:11:47 and raised the target price as well.

00:11:49 A couple of other factors worth noting

00:11:51 is that they have said that JLR may face some headwinds.

00:11:56 But the numbers have been spectacular, to say the least.

00:11:59 India business, again, has seen a little bit of a growth.

00:12:03 This may be something you want to watch out for

00:12:06 as an investor.

00:12:07 But in terms of other factors that they've talked about,

00:12:09 they've very clearly also stated

00:12:11 that they will reduce their debt.

00:12:13 The debt leveraging is on track.

00:12:15 Their cash level should be on point by the end of FY25.

00:12:19 Debt should be below one billion pounds.

00:12:21 So largely speaking, great numbers.

00:12:24 Every vertical of the business is doing well.

00:12:26 The turnaround is underway.

00:12:28 In fact, we will expect,

00:12:31 or the management is pretty confident

00:12:32 that from next quarter,

00:12:33 the numbers will continue to actually improve going ahead.

00:12:36 So there's no looking back or looking down

00:12:38 for Tata Motors this morning.

00:12:39 - If people are wondering why the stock has done so well,

00:12:42 in 2023 as well, the best performing stock,

00:12:44 and the guidance, Samina and Tamanna,

00:12:46 EBIT margins above the guided range,

00:12:50 the two billion pounds free cash flow, they'll meet it.

00:12:53 All boxes tick mark, to be honest.

00:12:55 - And we see the fourth quarter will be even better

00:12:57 than the third quarter. - Better, exactly.

00:12:58 - So there's just really no stopping.

00:13:00 - So it's interesting how auto is seeing

00:13:03 a sort of a turnaround in more from the numbers as well.

00:13:05 And we'll be speaking to Shashank Srivastav later.

00:13:07 But if Tata Motors is zooming,

00:13:10 Interglobe Aviation is flying.

00:13:11 - Yeah. (laughs)

00:13:13 - If you had to look at their quarter three numbers,

00:13:15 I mean, it's, I think, the fourth or fifth consecutive

00:13:18 quarter where you're seeing profits,

00:13:19 but it's a beat on all counts.

00:13:22 Your revenue up 30%, EBITDA up 40%,

00:13:26 margins have increased from 25% to 28%.

00:13:29 Net profit has doubled to 2998.

00:13:33 Interesting note by Morgan Stanley,

00:13:36 they've maintained an overweight,

00:13:37 they've raised the price target to 4,145.

00:13:40 So on all parameters, Indigo is, like Neeraj said,

00:13:44 ticking the boxes.

00:13:45 An interesting pointer from Morgan Stanley,

00:13:47 whether expecting Indigo to add a business class

00:13:50 section as well, which deviates from the all economy

00:13:54 seeding strategy actually across the sector,

00:13:57 but for Indigo as the market player as well.

00:13:59 And it's interesting because even as you have now

00:14:03 new entrance, Indigo is cementing its dominance

00:14:07 in that sense.

00:14:08 Their ASKMs, that's available seed kilometers growth

00:14:11 is expected at 6% and potential capacity to grow

00:14:15 in FY26 is also estimated at 25%.

00:14:17 So that's one stock I'd keep an eye on.

00:14:21 It's a very transportational theme, I must say,

00:14:23 because Teetaga Rail Systems is the next on the list.

00:14:26 Another beat on margins, net profits.

00:14:29 It's a strong quarter led by the freight rail system

00:14:33 that was up about 39, nearly 40%.

00:14:35 But the passenger rail system segment has declined

00:14:39 quite a bit to 35%, which is why perhaps your revenues

00:14:43 are not as expectation, so your EBITDA is down

00:14:46 so your EBITDA, your margins are looking good

00:14:49 as are your net profits.

00:14:51 Net profits are up quite significantly,

00:14:54 actually up about 130% if you look at it that way.

00:14:58 The last one though is a disappointment on all fronts

00:15:00 and this is a sectoral push as well.

00:15:03 If I'm talking about UPL, this is an overhang for the space.

00:15:07 The Agrochem company has seen a persistent weakness

00:15:11 that continues in this quarter, revenue down 28%.

00:15:15 EBITDA is down very sharply by 86%,

00:15:18 so you're at 416 crores now at EBITDA.

00:15:22 Margins have shrunk dramatically, I must say,

00:15:26 from 21.7% to 4.2% and net loss of 1,600 odd crores

00:15:31 versus a profit of 1360 crores.

00:15:35 So poor revenues across geographies,

00:15:38 falling Agrochem prices is a problem.

00:15:41 There's a clutch of reports on UPL

00:15:44 and Nuvama for one has reduced the price target

00:15:47 to 486 from 718.

00:15:50 It's disappointing results,

00:15:52 persistent losses much below estimate.

00:15:55 So this is going to be a tough one for UPL today

00:15:58 and one to watch.

00:15:59 - Yeah, just one addition to that, Tamanna,

00:16:03 is this interesting note that Nirmalbang note makes

00:16:06 and they say that the weak YTD results

00:16:08 and the high net debt of about 31,000 crores

00:16:12 now raises concerns on sustaining

00:16:14 the investment grade rating for UPL.

00:16:17 Given that Q4 also will be subdued,

00:16:19 which will, according to their estimates,

00:16:21 cap the FY24 EBITDA at about 4,000 crores

00:16:25 as per their estimates.

00:16:26 If that gets done that way,

00:16:28 then it could result in the net debt EBITDA

00:16:30 overshooting the cap required

00:16:32 to maintain the investment grade.

00:16:34 So now this becomes a moving piece for UPL

00:16:36 because this could be big for a company

00:16:38 as large as UPL, et cetera, to actually miss that.

00:16:41 I mean, they have said that the management

00:16:42 is confident of kind of doing everything going

00:16:45 for this rating because they'll plead

00:16:47 to the rating agencies, et cetera,

00:16:48 that the sector is under turmoil and all.

00:16:50 But I think this becomes an important moving part for UPL,

00:16:52 so do watch out for that.

00:16:54 And just before we move on to Editor's Cut,

00:16:57 very quickly, we've highlighted the big ones.

00:16:59 Now the small ones to watch out for today,

00:17:01 Divgi Top Transfer, not a great set of numbers

00:17:04 and why this is important,

00:17:05 because it's a very expensive stock.

00:17:07 So revenues down 1.5%, EBITDA down 29%.

00:17:10 Margins, look at that, have cracked from 28.4 to 20.5%.

00:17:15 That kind of tells you the story.

00:17:18 So watch out for Divgi or Div-gee as it may be pronounced.

00:17:22 So this one could correct in the session today.

00:17:24 And some observations from USFDA.

00:17:26 Last week, everybody was scratching their heads

00:17:28 about why is Aurobindo correcting.

00:17:30 Now you know the reason why.

00:17:32 USFDA inspection of the Telangana unit

00:17:35 closed with nine inspections,

00:17:38 and the company's temporarily stopped manufacturing

00:17:40 on certain lines as well.

00:17:41 So the stock is down about 6%, 7% in the last three days.

00:17:45 Suffice to say, there could be more in the session today.

00:17:48 And Jubilant Pharma Nova is the other one,

00:17:50 wherein four observations have been issued

00:17:53 on the Roorkee unit of the company.

00:17:55 So watch out for these two pharma names,

00:17:57 in addition to Torrent Pharma,

00:17:59 which of course had a fabulous set of numbers.

00:18:01 So it could well be an interesting non-nifty pharma morning.

00:18:04 And lastly, some small cap results which came out.

00:18:08 Very briefly, I'll run you to them

00:18:10 before we get to Editor's Cut.

00:18:11 So Ariant Capital Q3 revenues doubled,

00:18:14 PATWAR up 2.5%, and CDSL.

00:18:17 Actually, we don't have time, but CDSL is the other one.

00:18:19 Q3 total income up 47%, PAT up 44%.

00:18:23 Watch out for these stocks as well in the session today.

00:18:25 Guys, anything else before we go off to the FM's takeaways?

00:18:29 - I think a quick update on ZSony.

00:18:30 That could be an important one to watch out for.

00:18:32 So again, disappointing news on Z.

00:18:34 So we will talk about that as we'll have Sajith

00:18:36 at some point join in,

00:18:38 but could be another negative sort of news.

00:18:41 - The last bit was advantage Z, disadvantage Sony.

00:18:46 Sony's play got rejected.

00:18:47 - Rejected, so it's actually a good thing for Z.

00:18:49 Z though is in the FNO band,

00:18:51 you wanna keep that in mind as well.

00:18:52 But the stock will remain on our radar this morning too.

00:18:55 But Neeraj, back to you.

00:18:56 - No, and in fact, from me, it's back to Alex,

00:18:59 because it's time for the Editor's Cut.

00:19:00 And Alex, we are kind of cementing upon something

00:19:03 that we did very well in Friday's session,

00:19:05 which is get the Finance Minister's interview first up

00:19:08 across any private network in the country.

00:19:10 - Absolutely, Neeraj.

00:19:11 You heard her first on this channel and on this platform.

00:19:15 And the Finance Minister spoke exclusively

00:19:17 to NDTV Network's Editor-in-Chief Sanjay Pugalia.

00:19:21 And in that chat, she underlined the reason

00:19:24 why her government, her administration,

00:19:27 chose to be prudent and pragmatic rather than populist

00:19:32 in the interim budget just months

00:19:34 before the general elections.

00:19:36 We're gonna break down some of those big statements

00:19:39 and talk about the implications for companies

00:19:42 and in extension, therefore, to the markets.

00:19:45 Joining us on this Editor's Cut,

00:19:48 we've got Sanjay Pugalia and we've also got Neeraj Shah.

00:19:51 Sanjay, the first thing that stood out to me, of course,

00:19:54 was the statement on confidence.

00:19:56 And I think that was your question to her as well,

00:19:59 because she's chosen a fiscal glide path

00:20:02 that a lot of people did not expect.

00:20:05 How significant is that statement on confidence

00:20:09 heading into the general election?

00:20:10 - Yeah, every engine of economy,

00:20:15 the way it is firing and looking at 7% GDP,

00:20:19 I think the government is very confident

00:20:22 of achieving that target

00:20:24 without any fiscal slippages.

00:20:27 And in any way, we know from Gujarat days

00:20:30 that Mr. Modi is a stickler of fiscal discipline.

00:20:34 So that is what is reflected in this budget.

00:20:37 Before elections, one expects to splurge a bit more,

00:20:40 spend a bit more money on populist schemes.

00:20:43 This government has done nothing of such sort.

00:20:48 So it is a good sign that Indian economy

00:20:50 will not be growing on steroid,

00:20:54 but on organic strength.

00:20:56 - The statement that was made on capital expenditure

00:21:00 is quite significant as well, Sanjay.

00:21:03 What you asked was whether or not

00:21:05 the government is not spending enough.

00:21:08 That I think the answer to that was quite interesting.

00:21:11 - Yeah, actually, I think they are so confident

00:21:16 about elections that election was not

00:21:20 in their mind when they were writing

00:21:21 this interim budget speech

00:21:23 and planning for this budget speech.

00:21:25 Soon after the election,

00:21:27 the indication by finance minister was very clearly

00:21:31 that if there is a requirement,

00:21:32 funds will not be an issue

00:21:34 and we can increase the capex.

00:21:36 She of course justified that 30% and 35% increase

00:21:41 in last two years was on a narrow base.

00:21:44 So 11% is not a small number.

00:21:48 I think it is a small number,

00:21:50 the kind of requirement our growth targets have.

00:21:53 We need a little more aggressive capex,

00:21:55 especially on public expenditure,

00:21:57 especially focused on infrastructure.

00:22:00 But the indication by finance minister was

00:22:02 that in the final budget in July,

00:22:05 we may see a hike.

00:22:07 - Mr. Pogalia, just a need of cheer.

00:22:10 Good morning.

00:22:11 Just one question.

00:22:11 In some sense, did you get a feel

00:22:14 that she also referred to the absorption capacity

00:22:19 of the country or the states in particular

00:22:21 in order to absorb the capex?

00:22:22 That, you know,

00:22:23 (speaking in foreign language)

00:22:25 But nevermind a tall number.

00:22:28 They are not hitting the mark this year as well

00:22:30 because the absorption of the states isn't quite as much

00:22:34 as people would like to believe.

00:22:36 - You are absolutely right.

00:22:37 And that is the pragmatism,

00:22:39 rather than throwing big numbers at us.

00:22:43 Finance minister clarified this,

00:22:44 that at state level, execution level, at capacity level,

00:22:49 how much absorption can happen in a given period of time.

00:22:52 And that is why their realistic calculations suggest

00:22:56 that this money is enough.

00:22:57 In any case, if there are more projects coming in

00:22:59 and that they have to go for,

00:23:01 they will be very happy to support that.

00:23:03 That is the general mood in them.

00:23:05 - I wanted to ask on divestment, in fact.

00:23:09 - That's what I also want to ask.

00:23:10 - Please go ahead.

00:23:11 - Okay, fine.

00:23:12 The other question that came out seems to be that

00:23:15 every year, (speaking in foreign language)

00:23:21 what is the number coming or is it missing,

00:23:23 getting missed, et cetera.

00:23:24 (speaking in foreign language)

00:23:25 In your conversation that the FM was trying to indicate

00:23:29 that don't be obsessed with a particular number

00:23:32 because there may not be a particular number now

00:23:34 every given year because we'll use divestment

00:23:37 as in when we believe the timing is right,

00:23:39 not because the budget math requires a number

00:23:42 from divestment.

00:23:43 - Exactly.

00:23:45 (speaking in foreign language)

00:23:49 - Right.

00:23:49 (speaking in foreign language)

00:23:53 (speaking in foreign language)

00:23:57 (speaking in foreign language)

00:24:02 (speaking in foreign language)

00:24:06 (speaking in foreign language)

00:24:10 (speaking in foreign language)

00:24:15 (speaking in foreign language)

00:24:19 (speaking in foreign language)

00:24:23 (speaking in foreign language)

00:24:35 (speaking in foreign language)

00:24:39 (speaking in foreign language)

00:24:43 (speaking in foreign language)

00:24:47 (speaking in foreign language)

00:24:51 (speaking in foreign language)

00:24:55 (speaking in foreign language)

00:25:23 - That is one thing, sir.

00:25:25 The flexibility is one thing, but the other thing, Sanjay,

00:25:28 and what she alluded to is the requirement

00:25:30 to fix certain internal processes with PSUs

00:25:34 and the fact that in certain situations

00:25:36 the market is not valuing these companies

00:25:38 how they should be valued.

00:25:40 She spoke about LIC when she gave the example

00:25:42 and she said she's fixed certain issues

00:25:45 and that is reflected in the price.

00:25:47 The fact that it is now crossed its issue price once again

00:25:50 seems to suggest that some of those processes

00:25:53 that were fixed have now been recognized by the market,

00:25:58 but what was the aspect that she was talking about

00:26:00 with regard to the valuations of the other PSU companies?

00:26:03 - Yeah, of course, she wouldn't go in the details

00:26:07 of specific sector or companies,

00:26:09 but government, it seems, what she was trying to suggest

00:26:13 is that it is very keen that every PSU

00:26:17 should command a great valuation.

00:26:19 To do that, a lot of background work has to be done,

00:26:22 so market likes, international investors like,

00:26:24 and then they can choose their own time

00:26:26 when to go for disinvestment.

00:26:28 - Last thing that I wanted to raise

00:26:31 is a very short answer that she gave you on the PPP side

00:26:35 and it's interesting that she's saying,

00:26:37 (speaking in foreign language)

00:26:40 and I'm struggling with the Hindi,

00:26:42 you can explain it better,

00:26:44 but what was the point that you were making?

00:26:48 (speaking in foreign language)

00:26:52 (speaking in foreign language)

00:26:55 (speaking in foreign language)

00:26:59 (speaking in foreign language)

00:27:26 - What finance minister very generously indicated

00:27:29 that, yeah, I like your suggestion, I take your suggestion,

00:27:32 and this is an area where some work has to be done.

00:27:35 (speaking in foreign language)

00:27:39 (speaking in foreign language)

00:27:43 (speaking in foreign language)

00:27:47 (speaking in foreign language)

00:28:14 - Finance minister was very receptive to this suggestion

00:28:17 coming from all stakeholders that this needs to be fixed.

00:28:21 - Okay, fair point.

00:28:22 You know, there was also an interesting statement

00:28:25 that was made on the housing program

00:28:28 or the projected or the proposed housing program.

00:28:30 Let's listen to what she had to say in that interview.

00:28:33 (speaking in foreign language)

00:28:40 (speaking in foreign language)

00:28:44 (speaking in foreign language)

00:28:48 (speaking in foreign language)

00:28:52 (speaking in foreign language)

00:28:56 (speaking in foreign language)

00:29:00 (speaking in foreign language)

00:29:04 (speaking in foreign language)

00:29:08 (speaking in foreign language)

00:29:38 - So that was just an inkling

00:29:41 of what perhaps the government is planning.

00:29:43 No key details yet.

00:29:45 And that's interesting, right?

00:29:47 Sanjay, she's not talked about key details,

00:29:50 and there's just a couple of months to the elections.

00:29:53 Is it possible that something

00:29:55 is going to be launched in the interim?

00:29:57 - That will be very difficult to guess,

00:30:01 but she mentioned about PM's speech.

00:30:03 She gave details that shows how they are looking

00:30:07 at the problem.

00:30:09 And the articulation suggests that how much homework

00:30:12 might have already gone behind planning this.

00:30:16 So I am definitely expecting the details

00:30:18 of it to come out soon.

00:30:20 And it is clearly targeted at migrating population of India

00:30:25 to big urban centers and the challenges

00:30:28 of housing and rent and land.

00:30:30 And it is very clear that government

00:30:33 is going to attack this from all corners.

00:30:35 Exact timing, I won't be able to predict,

00:30:38 but I think this is next big agenda

00:30:40 after Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana at bottom of pyramid.

00:30:43 This is the next level where government will focus

00:30:46 because this is the population which is meaningfully busy

00:30:49 in Indian economic activities.

00:30:51 - Absolutely.

00:30:52 Sanjay, thanks so much for breaking all of that down for us

00:30:55 and joining us on the Editor's Cut this morning.

00:30:58 We have to slip into a very, very quick break,

00:31:00 but there's a conversation with Maruti Suzuki

00:31:03 on this other side that you should watch out for.

00:31:05 So do stay tuned.

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00:34:18 - Welcome back.

00:34:32 You're watching India Market Open.

00:34:33 A quick look at the implied open

00:34:35 and we seem like we might have a bit of a weak start today,

00:34:39 all things considered.

00:34:40 Not massively in the red, but yes, maybe a muted start.

00:34:45 Meanwhile, focus on big numbers

00:34:47 that have come over the weekend and how they'll react.

00:34:49 One sector and one stock that's definitely in focus,

00:34:52 public sector banks and among them SBI.

00:34:55 Numbers were out over the weekend and on the face of it,

00:34:59 maybe a bit of pressure.

00:35:00 You've had a dip in net profit at about 35%,

00:35:04 but in conversation with NDTV profit,

00:35:06 SBI CEO, Dinesh Kumar Khara,

00:35:09 says 75% of CapEx comes from the private sector.

00:35:12 He focuses on that aspect.

00:35:14 He also says that the company has clear visibility

00:35:17 on SBI's pipeline.

00:35:19 Listen in.

00:35:20 - We are having a very clear visibility

00:35:23 in terms of the pipeline which we have.

00:35:26 And that is nothing but a reflection of the confidence

00:35:29 of the private sector players,

00:35:31 which is of course fueled by the initiatives taken

00:35:33 by government of India

00:35:35 in terms of supporting the infrastructure.

00:35:38 We have seen it in the past.

00:35:39 And now we have got a situation where our pipeline stands

00:35:43 at about 4.6 trillion Indian rupees.

00:35:46 And I would say that much of it,

00:35:50 almost about 75% of this pipeline

00:35:52 is coming from the private sector.

00:35:55 And the remaining 25% is coming from the public sector.

00:35:59 But yes, of course, it's a huge multiplier.

00:36:02 It has got a huge multiplier effect.

00:36:04 And that is something which I've already started seeing

00:36:06 when we see our SME growth at about 19%.

00:36:10 I would say that is a reflection of the kind

00:36:12 of multiplier effect which is seen

00:36:15 of such kind of investment.

00:36:17 - All right, Mehmantha is joining us

00:36:18 with what the brokerage's views are on SBI's earning.

00:36:23 Mehmantha, this one-time hit in terms of salaries,

00:36:27 pensions, et cetera, seems to have been digested pretty well

00:36:29 in terms of house views, isn't it?

00:36:31 - Right, Tamanna, so this one-time provision

00:36:35 which is related to pensions,

00:36:37 that has hit SBI's net profit by 35% year on year.

00:36:42 Now, what brokerages are saying that

00:36:45 this elevated cost, provision cost,

00:36:50 and the net interest margin compression

00:36:53 is going to impact the earnings outlook for FY24.

00:36:57 And a lot of brokerages have cut down their estimates on that.

00:37:00 But they have also maintained the buy rating on the stock.

00:37:03 Now, with one-time exceptional item,

00:37:06 the return on assets have come down to 0.62%,

00:37:10 which is sharply lower than Q2.

00:37:12 The net interest income also grew by mere 4% year on year,

00:37:17 which led to a seven basis point compression

00:37:18 in net interest margin as well.

00:37:20 So now this is because the SBI's cost of deposits had risen,

00:37:25 but the yield on advances remained almost flat

00:37:28 during the reporting quarter.

00:37:31 So all in all, deposit repricing is a concern for SBI

00:37:34 at this point of time,

00:37:35 and that has led to the margin compression in SBI,

00:37:38 which stands true for all banks across the system.

00:37:41 If we talk about deposit growth in particular,

00:37:43 Bernstein has pointed out that

00:37:45 even though YOY growth in deposits

00:37:48 was in line with system deposit growth,

00:37:51 but the sequential rise in deposits was only 1.6%,

00:37:56 which is lower than the system deposit growth.

00:37:58 And the top private banks as well.

00:38:01 If we talk about slippages as well,

00:38:03 the management said that there was one SME account

00:38:06 that led to higher slippage on the sequential basis,

00:38:09 and staff costs are expected to remain elevated in Q4

00:38:12 due to provisions of Rs. 5,400 crore in the coming quarters.

00:38:17 This is why brokerages have trimmed their earnings forecast.

00:38:21 One interesting bit in this quarter, Tamanna,

00:38:22 was that SBI is open to raising capital

00:38:26 in the coming quarters on net basis.

00:38:29 However, the bank is capital adequate,

00:38:31 as the management says,

00:38:32 but they are open to raising growth capital

00:38:34 if the loan growth is going to exceed the return

00:38:37 on earnings growth.

00:38:38 So that will be a key thing to watch out for

00:38:40 as to when SBI is going to raise capital,

00:38:43 if they are going to do that.

00:38:46 Thank you for that.

00:38:47 That is SBI.

00:38:48 The stock will be one you want to watch out for

00:38:50 as we open up today's trade.

00:38:53 Well, we also have Maruti that is going to be in focus.

00:38:56 The stock will be expected to see a pretty solid opening

00:39:00 on back of another exceptional month of sales,

00:39:04 record sales in fact for Maruti in the month of Jan.

00:39:07 Shashank Srivastava, Senior Executive Officer

00:39:10 of Marketing and Sales at Maruti joins us.

00:39:12 Shashank, thank you very much for joining us, Mr. Srivastava.

00:39:16 Set the tone for us how demand trends are panning out.

00:39:19 You have recorded once again one of your best months ever

00:39:23 in terms of record sales.

00:39:26 Yeah, so I think in January,

00:39:28 much of the wholesale numbers that you are referring to

00:39:32 went into the filling up of the inventory pipeline.

00:39:36 Remember, this happens every year

00:39:39 because in the end of December,

00:39:41 OEMs and the channel partners,

00:39:43 they try to keep the inventory at the minimum.

00:39:46 That's why you see high retails in December and low wholesale

00:39:50 and the reverse happens in January.

00:39:52 And of course, there was an increase in prices

00:39:54 midway through January,

00:39:55 which also pushed up the wholesale in the first half.

00:39:57 And I think overall the booking

00:39:59 and the inquiry parameters remain similar levels.

00:40:04 And that's what resulted in a record wholesale

00:40:07 of 395,000 in the industry.

00:40:10 But the retail, of course, was a little lower than this,

00:40:13 about 309,000.

00:40:15 As a result, inventory in the network has gone up again

00:40:18 to around 20 days.

00:40:21 That has been the situation in January.

00:40:24 Glad you talked about inventories

00:40:25 because I wanted to get a quick check from you

00:40:28 on what inventories are looking like.

00:40:30 And you know your discounts in the month of Jan,

00:40:33 how much was it?

00:40:34 And are you also planning to extend these discounts

00:40:37 to liquidate that inventory buildup

00:40:40 that we've seen going into next month

00:40:42 or going to this month rather?

00:40:44 No, so actually the discount levels in the month of December

00:40:49 are usually the highest.

00:40:51 And that's what has happened.

00:40:53 January, the discount levels actually were lower

00:40:55 because there was no inventory.

00:40:57 And as the inventory built up,

00:40:58 still 20 days only, by the way,

00:41:00 which is below the 30 days normal

00:41:03 that you see in the industry.

00:41:05 So the current estimates in the industry

00:41:07 is around 263,000 is the inventory

00:41:09 against the normal 340,000, 350,000.

00:41:12 So there's no real need for a higher discount

00:41:15 in the month of January.

00:41:17 We'll have to see how actually the underlying demand

00:41:19 moves from here because now that the inventory is going up,

00:41:23 so we will actually see the liquidation basis,

00:41:26 the actual demand patterns.

00:41:28 Right.

00:41:29 Also, Mr. Shrivastava, mini has not,

00:41:33 small and mini cars have been struggling

00:41:36 for the last couple of months now.

00:41:38 Any update on that?

00:41:39 Are you seeing an improvement there?

00:41:41 When can we expect a turnaround for small and mini cars?

00:41:45 Yes, sir.

00:41:46 For the small and mini cars, actually,

00:41:48 there has been a downward trend, as you rightly point out,

00:41:50 since the last three years.

00:41:52 And at their peak, the small cars

00:41:56 were selling around 15,60,000.

00:41:59 That was in '17, '18.

00:42:01 But this year, expected only about 12,000,000.

00:42:04 But I think in the premium hatches,

00:42:06 you do see a little bit of growth at this time.

00:42:10 Although the entry-level hatches still show a downward trend,

00:42:13 they are now about 28%, 29% of the market against 45%

00:42:17 that they were three years back.

00:42:18 Last year, they were about 33%, 34%.

00:42:20 So there is a shortfall, and largely

00:42:22 because of the affordability factor coming down,

00:42:25 which means the price is going up

00:42:26 faster than the income levels for the customers

00:42:28 in this segment.

00:42:29 But some of the economics shows that maybe we

00:42:32 won't see a quick turnaround in the very near future.

00:42:35 Maybe sometime in 2026, second half

00:42:37 is what we expect to turn around in this segment.

00:42:41 Do you feel like sales in the small and mini car segment

00:42:44 have now bottomed out at these levels, Mr. Srivastava?

00:42:47 We could further see a decline before a turnaround kicks in.

00:42:51 Yeah, so I think the projection for '24, '25 financial year

00:42:56 is flattish.

00:42:57 And it will be expected to be remaining

00:43:00 around that 12,000,000 mark.

00:43:04 And then maybe take a turn upwards going forward in 2026.

00:43:09 While that segment continues to be a bit of a pain point,

00:43:13 with the SUV business, you've consistently

00:43:16 been gaining market share.

00:43:17 Sales also stand at record levels.

00:43:20 Can you give me a sense of demand trends

00:43:22 there over the next couple of months?

00:43:24 Yeah, so in the last few months, actually, the SUV sales

00:43:27 have been going up.

00:43:29 And also, if you see the last few years,

00:43:31 they have been going up.

00:43:32 So they were just around that 32% mark three years back.

00:43:35 Last year, they were at 43% of the industry.

00:43:37 And this year, they've crossed the 50% mark.

00:43:40 And in January was the first time

00:43:42 that on a cumulative basis in the financial year

00:43:45 that the 50% mark was breached by the SUVs.

00:43:48 SUVs, by the way, if you look at the calendar year,

00:43:50 sold more than 20 lakh, which is 2 million cars, SUVs.

00:43:56 That's very positive.

00:43:57 And I think that trend will continue for some time.

00:43:59 Our projection for this financial year

00:44:01 is that we should end the year with about 52%, 53% SUVs.

00:44:05 And going forward, might go up to about 55%, 56%

00:44:08 before they hit that plateau and then level off.

00:44:12 Also, exports, those numbers are also phenomenal,

00:44:15 at least in terms of what we saw for the month of Jan.

00:44:19 That pace could continue going ahead.

00:44:22 The kind of buoyancy we've seen with exports for Maruti,

00:44:26 sustainable at these levels, Mr. Srivastava?

00:44:29 Yes, definitely.

00:44:30 I think if you look at the last three years,

00:44:32 Maruti Suzuki has been exporting more than 40%

00:44:35 of the total export of passenger vehicles from our country.

00:44:39 Last year, we exported about 259,000 vehicles.

00:44:43 This year, we should cross that number.

00:44:45 And next year, in 2024, 2025, we should be even higher.

00:44:48 By the way, by April to January figures,

00:44:51 227,000 is the export against 210,000 of last year.

00:44:55 So we are showing that growth of about 8% over last year.

00:44:58 I think this growth, the projection for next year

00:45:01 also is that the growth will continue.

00:45:04 So Srivastava, a couple of things.

00:45:06 New launches, I mean, I know Maruti

00:45:08 pushes for at least three to four new launches every year.

00:45:12 This year, I believe the number is much higher.

00:45:14 And also, bring us up to date with what's

00:45:17 happening on the EV launch.

00:45:19 I know the market is very excitedly awaiting the launch.

00:45:21 And you've also gone on record to say

00:45:24 that you would be at 15% market share for EVs by F531.

00:45:29 So update on model launches across the board,

00:45:32 and update on EV plans as well.

00:45:33 And where do they stand?

00:45:35 What sort of timeline can we anticipate?

00:45:38 Yeah, so the specifics of the model launches,

00:45:40 maybe I am not able to specify here.

00:45:43 They are forward-looking and therefore market-moving.

00:45:46 However, as you rightly pointed out,

00:45:48 I must reiterate the fact that Maruti Suzuki has always

00:45:51 been very, very positive as far as the introduction

00:45:54 of new models is concerned.

00:45:56 Even last year, we introduced the Vitara, and the Jimny,

00:45:59 the Invicto, the Frongs.

00:46:01 And they have all done well.

00:46:02 And as you rightly pointed out, we

00:46:05 doubled our SUV market share in sales.

00:46:07 We became the number one SUV manufacturer

00:46:09 for H1 of this financial year.

00:46:11 So I think we will continue that trend of introducing

00:46:14 new and upgraded models, even in this year.

00:46:18 Specifics is difficult for me to give here.

00:46:21 For the EVs, we will be introducing our first vehicle,

00:46:25 first EV, in this financial year.

00:46:27 We will also be exporting it to other countries like Europe.

00:46:31 And also, remember that this EV, we

00:46:34 are currently in the process of making detailed plans

00:46:40 as regarding the charging infrastructure, which

00:46:43 is so important for customer convenience.

00:46:45 Also, Suzuki, as you know, has invested

00:46:48 more than 10,000 crores in battery and battery-related

00:46:51 components for EVs so that we can be very

00:46:54 competitive with the localization levels

00:46:56 that that would certainly bring.

00:46:59 As regards to your comment on the 15% market share,

00:47:02 what we had said was that by 2030,

00:47:05 on the powertrain within our sales, 15% will be EVs.

00:47:09 Of course, our market share, we expect

00:47:11 to be much higher starting next year itself.

00:47:15 That is very, very exciting.

00:47:16 Just a quick word, Mr. Shrivastava.

00:47:18 I know you and me both are out of time.

00:47:19 But realizations, I mean, are these higher realizations

00:47:23 sustainable going ahead?

00:47:24 And also, this pace of growth, we've

00:47:26 seen you post-record monthly sales month

00:47:29 on month in the last quarter.

00:47:31 This sort of pace is expected to continue

00:47:35 to remain going into the next couple of quarters

00:47:37 or in calendar year '24?

00:47:41 Yes, so I think if you look at '23, '24,

00:47:43 the projections for domestic market for India

00:47:45 is about 42 lakhs, which is 4.2 million.

00:47:50 And going forward, there is a growth expected

00:47:53 because the economy is growing and auto industry growth

00:47:57 is very closely related to the overall economic growth.

00:47:59 However, at this high levels, we believe

00:48:01 that there would be the growth--

00:48:04 positive growth will be muted.

00:48:06 So the growth will be there, but muted.

00:48:08 And therefore, if your question is

00:48:10 whether the absolute volumes will continue,

00:48:12 certainly that's what the projection is.

00:48:15 However, the growth pattern will be the same.

00:48:17 Maybe difficult at this high levels

00:48:19 to sustain the very high level of growth.

00:48:22 And the projections are that they would be in single digits

00:48:25 for next year.

00:48:26 Thank you very much, Mr. Shrivastava.

00:48:31 Great talking to you this morning.

00:48:32 Maruti will be one stock that the markets will

00:48:34 be excited about in the word get-go in early trade.

00:48:37 But apart from that, you've also got Paytm

00:48:39 that the markets may not be too excited about this morning

00:48:41 again, Tamanna.

00:48:41 Yes, we're going to get to our coverage on Paytm.

00:48:44 But very quickly, how exciting is auto getting?

00:48:46 And a newspaper report this morning

00:48:49 saying Hyundai's India unit is going to list by Diwali.

00:48:52 So you have TAPU zooming ahead.

00:48:55 You have Maruti looking strong.

00:48:57 And then you might have Hyundai listing as well.

00:48:59 It's very good because the passenger car vehicle market

00:49:01 is now represented well and truly in the industries.

00:49:04 Yes, yes, yes.

00:49:05 So exciting times.

00:49:06 Not so exciting times for Paytm.

00:49:08 If Friday evening looked dismal, by Monday morning

00:49:12 the news has gotten even worse.

00:49:14 First, I just want to talk for a second

00:49:16 about the NDTV Profit Exclusive that my colleague Vishwanath

00:49:18 Nair broke, Postmarket Hours on Friday.

00:49:21 On some of the reasons and the inside story

00:49:24 which could have led to RBI's action on Paytm,

00:49:27 it was found about 1,000 accounts on Paytm

00:49:30 were linked to just a single PAN card.

00:49:32 So that has raised more concerns.

00:49:35 There was a Newswire report that there's an ED investigation

00:49:39 on, and Morgan Stanley's Asia affiliate

00:49:43 bought 0.8% stake in Paytm.

00:49:46 They bought 50 lakh shares amounting to 244 crores.

00:49:50 Now, what does all of this mean when Paytm opens this morning?

00:49:54 It's already lost 40% of its value.

00:49:56 Pranav Gundlapally, a senior research analyst at Bernstein

00:50:00 joins us this morning.

00:50:01 Pranav, very good morning to you.

00:50:03 Let me start with your opening comments on all things Paytm.

00:50:07 Fair to say that whatever silver lining or light

00:50:10 at the end of the tunnel there seem to be

00:50:12 is dimming very fast as far as Paytm is concerned.

00:50:17 I think it's a big blow for them in terms

00:50:20 of losing an associate company and also brings them

00:50:24 on par with how most of their peers

00:50:26 are structured in this sort of a payment platform business.

00:50:30 I think that edge that they had is definitely gone.

00:50:33 I think the question now is twofold.

00:50:35 One is, is this the end of regulatory troubles

00:50:38 or there's more trouble ahead?

00:50:40 I think that becomes a bigger question

00:50:41 because one discrepancy then leads to questions

00:50:45 on if there are more to come.

00:50:47 And the second is if there is a reputational risk which

00:50:49 will have rub off effect on the other parts of their businesses.

00:50:53 Remember, the payments bank is only

00:50:56 responsible for a small part of the business.

00:50:58 So therefore, if it's just limited

00:51:02 to that particular business, it's

00:51:04 probably not that material in terms of numbers.

00:51:06 But the questions of future trouble from regulations

00:51:09 and rub off effect in terms of reputational risk

00:51:13 are the bigger ones to be worried about at this stage.

00:51:15 So talking about those two factors, Pranav,

00:51:18 and you're right, just the payments bank,

00:51:20 if the contagion, so to say, was limited to just the payments

00:51:24 bank business, it would be a different story.

00:51:25 But for example, you have a trader's association,

00:51:28 and we'll be speaking with them later on the show,

00:51:30 asking all brick and mortar retailers

00:51:32 in their association, which is fairly large volumes

00:51:35 and large numbers, saying please go off

00:51:38 of ATM for your own safety.

00:51:40 So is it likely that things like that will snowball?

00:51:45 I think that's the risk.

00:51:47 I think that's the reputational risk.

00:51:49 Two things here.

00:51:49 I think one is for a number of merchants,

00:51:53 I think the underlying bank account

00:51:57 has not been so much with Paytm Payments Bank.

00:51:59 So I think irrespective of whether one

00:52:02 was using PhonePe or Paytm or any of the competitors

00:52:05 or even a bank app, I think the underlying bank account

00:52:08 remains with some of the large public or the private sector

00:52:11 banks.

00:52:12 So I think from a safety of the account of the cash

00:52:18 and their value, I think that part is largely taken care of.

00:52:21 I think there'd be a very small percent who actually

00:52:23 hold meaningful balances in payments bank account, which

00:52:27 is evident from the total balances

00:52:30 that they have managed to capture.

00:52:32 So then the second thing becomes,

00:52:33 OK, if there is going to be a change from Paytm

00:52:37 to another competitor, I think there is still

00:52:40 an operational change involved.

00:52:41 So if you think about Soundbox or some of the QR codes,

00:52:43 et cetera, and the change would be similar

00:52:47 whether Paytm tries to switch them on to a different bank

00:52:50 account in case they were with Paytm Payments Bank

00:52:53 or if a competitor wants to come in and put in a different QR

00:52:56 code.

00:52:57 So I think the operational change involved

00:52:59 isn't going to be too different.

00:53:00 So it's not like somebody just switches off,

00:53:03 switches to an alternative without any effort,

00:53:06 whereas for Paytm, it has to be an extra effort

00:53:09 to keep the party going.

00:53:11 So I think that does leave us being a bit more

00:53:19 doubtful on the level of impact that will happen

00:53:23 or the attrition that might happen from all these events.

00:53:26 Last question, Pranav, and very quickly.

00:53:28 So any take on this Morgan Stanley affiliate buying

00:53:32 stake and any advice or any outlook on the stock price

00:53:37 right now?

00:53:38 See, I think it's--

00:53:41 if you, like I said earlier, if you assume it's a Payments Bank

00:53:44 only thing, I think then the reaction seems overdone.

00:53:48 And therefore, the decision to buy or sell

00:53:51 will eventually rest on one's call

00:53:54 on whether this is a one-off regulatory issue

00:53:57 or if this is a sign of more trouble ahead.

00:54:00 I think depending on where you fall on that assumption,

00:54:03 it would be a compelling buy or sell.

00:54:05 So on either side, you see a significant room for movement.

00:54:10 Thank you so much, Pranav, for joining us this morning.

00:54:13 Expect another rocky day for Paytm, Neeraj?

00:54:16 Yeah, most certainly.

00:54:17 And in fact, but Paytm is not all.

00:54:19 There is so much which could have a rocky day.

00:54:20 UPL could be right up there and more.

00:54:23 Let's talk about the trade with Sameer Chauhan, Research

00:54:26 Head of Technical and Derivatives at Angel Broking

00:54:28 on the fundamentals, Parthiv Shah, Director at Tracom Stock

00:54:31 Brokers, joins in as well.

00:54:32 Sameer, good having you, Parthiv.

00:54:34 It's been a while, but great having you on the show.

00:54:36 We'll make it quick because I know there's paucity of time.

00:54:39 Sameer, to you first.

00:54:40 What's the quick outlook on the index this morning,

00:54:43 either the Nifty or the Bank Nifty?

00:54:46 Good morning, Neeraj.

00:54:47 See, as far as our index outlook is concerned,

00:54:50 we are not too up on the market as of now,

00:54:53 at least at the high levels.

00:54:55 So one has to take a cautious approach going right.

00:54:58 So around the resistance levels, one

00:54:59 has to lighten up the position before even

00:55:01 an aggressive trader can take a punt

00:55:03 by going short at higher levels.

00:55:05 And the weakest link remains to be banking space.

00:55:09 So Bank Nifty, which has been struggling

00:55:11 to surpass 47,000.

00:55:13 So on Friday also, we saw a sharp dip

00:55:16 from the levels of 47,000.

00:55:18 So the weakest link remains to be the financial space.

00:55:21 And we will be keeping a close eye on this space.

00:55:24 So 45, 500 is the important level

00:55:27 to watch out for Bank Nifty.

00:55:28 If that important level gets breached,

00:55:31 which we expect to happen, then probably we

00:55:34 are heading towards 45,000 and 44,800.

00:55:37 And this will certainly lead Nifty towards, again,

00:55:40 21,600 levels.

00:55:43 OK.

00:55:44 A bit of a mundi, as they say.

00:55:46 Thanks, Sameer, for that.

00:55:47 Parthiv, a clutch of results.

00:55:49 I'll jump straight to that because there's just so much

00:55:51 to talk about.

00:55:51 And maybe you can give a brief view on the market.

00:55:54 Quickly, there are some three or four large numbers

00:55:56 that have come out over the weekend.

00:55:57 There is Tata Motors, there is SBI,

00:55:59 there is Interglobe Aviation, and there is UPL.

00:56:01 So I'm sticking to the top four by size.

00:56:04 Which one stood out the most for you, Parthiv?

00:56:07 See, absolutely.

00:56:08 Good morning, Neeraj.

00:56:09 Very good morning.

00:56:09 Tata Motors and Interglobe Aviation.

00:56:11 Firstly on Tata Motors, I think this

00:56:14 is a company which is right now firing on all cylinders.

00:56:16 Historically, we used to witness in Tata Motors

00:56:18 that if the JLR business was doing steady,

00:56:21 I think the Indian business was bleeding.

00:56:23 But now is the case where I think the JLR business

00:56:26 is at a fantastic momentum.

00:56:28 The order book is extremely strong.

00:56:30 All the cost-cutting measures that the CFO

00:56:32 has been talking about since last many quarters

00:56:34 is now percolating into very healthy margin sets.

00:56:37 And the premiumization team there is really paying out.

00:56:40 Not only that, the amount of cash flow they're talking of

00:56:43 and the amount of debt they're talking of repaying,

00:56:45 I think that gives a huge momentum to this business.

00:56:48 The Indian business, I think, look

00:56:50 at the fantastic pipeline in the passenger vehicle segment.

00:56:52 I think out of nowhere, I think they

00:56:54 are at a very healthy market share.

00:56:56 And in terms of margins also, they've scaled up very well.

00:56:59 The pipeline going ahead is looking good.

00:57:00 The way they're revamping the models.

00:57:02 And now we also have the EV business,

00:57:04 which has already been monetized.

00:57:05 They're sitting on some cash there.

00:57:07 So they have a good pipeline there as well.

00:57:09 The CV business, I think I would say

00:57:11 that it's kind of steady, not growing

00:57:13 in terms of very good volumes.

00:57:15 But I think Tata Motors is looking fantastic

00:57:17 because in terms of forward valuations,

00:57:19 it's just at around 13, 14 times,

00:57:21 which I believe is still cheap here.

00:57:24 There is a 20, 25% upside in Tata Motors.

00:57:27 Talking about interglobal aviation,

00:57:28 I think everything's good in terms of the cost.

00:57:32 I think they are one of the lowest.

00:57:33 The yields at 2% was one of the best in the industry.

00:57:37 Only concern being for FY25 is the 20% fleet

00:57:41 that has been grounded.

00:57:42 Because when the fleet is grounded,

00:57:44 it adds to additional cost without adding

00:57:46 any additional revenue.

00:57:47 That's a concern for interglobal aviation.

00:57:49 No doubt today there'll be a pop-up, it seems.

00:57:51 But I think that is something of a concern.

00:57:53 They are working with players like Qatar

00:57:55 and other players to have their fleet

00:57:57 kind of lease sort of a model.

00:57:58 But that is the only concern.

00:58:01 Talking about SBI, I believe it's a good set.

00:58:03 They've grown above the industry average

00:58:06 despite having such a huge book.

00:58:07 Again, the concern being the contraction

00:58:09 in the NIMS at nine business points.

00:58:11 One was expecting at four to five business points.

00:58:14 And some of the liabilities in terms of the pension

00:58:16 and one-off accounts.

00:58:17 But otherwise, I believe on any declines,

00:58:19 I think SBI at 1.2 times forward price to book multiple

00:58:22 is looking very compelling.

00:58:24 Very quickly, Parthiv, a view on UPL.

00:58:26 Anurag asked you about UPL in a pack of four

00:58:29 and you picked the good ones, Indigo and Tahmo.

00:58:32 But what about UPL?

00:58:33 Is the worst in the cycle over

00:58:36 or is there more pain to come?

00:58:38 Morning, Tamanna.

00:58:39 I think disaster is set.

00:58:40 In terms of EBITDA, decline of 30%.

00:58:43 You see 5% decline in volume.

00:58:45 And in terms of pricing, it was a 24% decline.

00:58:48 I think we talk about destocking everything impacting

00:58:51 the North American business, the Brazilian business,

00:58:53 South American business.

00:58:54 But look at the India business also.

00:58:56 I think the India crop protection business

00:58:58 and the growth of 34% in terms of the EBITDA.

00:59:02 I really am scared about these numbers

00:59:04 and I don't think so the destocking problem is over yet.

00:59:08 So our sense is I think these are disaster set of numbers

00:59:11 and probably you are looking at decline of at least 15 to 20%

00:59:15 of kind of derating in this particular company.

00:59:19 Wow, that's a very strong statement there

00:59:21 and understandably looking at UPL's numbers.

00:59:25 Parthiv, thank you for that.

00:59:27 Sameet, please stay with us.

00:59:28 We're taking a very short break.

00:59:29 We're going to be back with the pre-open rates and more.

00:59:31 Stay tuned.

00:59:33 Okay.

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01:01:16 Welcome back.

01:01:25 You're watching India Market Open.

01:01:26 It's expected to be a little bit of a down day for the street

01:01:28 implied Nifty indicating to cap down for D Street this morning.

01:01:31 But we have with us a very special guest joining in.

01:01:34 Sameer Arora, founder and fund manager, Elios Capital joins in.

01:01:37 Hi Sameer.

01:01:38 Good evening.

01:01:39 I believe you're joining us from the US.

01:01:41 It's pretty late up there.

01:01:42 This is Sameena at NDTV Profit.

01:01:45 Sameer, let's get down to talking about the big event that's behind us.

01:01:50 Historically, the budget and the market relationship has never lasted beyond a week.

01:01:56 This time around, I think it seems even shorter given that it's the interim budget.

01:02:01 All eyes on the election which seems to be pretty much a given from what the street is expecting.

01:02:06 Do you think it's back to business, back to earnings, back to global queues

01:02:10 and strong breadth that we've seen in the markets will continue going into the next few months?

01:02:17 I think it will.

01:02:18 And this time the budget, I didn't even see the budget.

01:02:21 So just to give you an indication of how much interest I had in the budget

01:02:26 or what surprise it might bring.

01:02:28 And obviously there was none.

01:02:29 But on the other hand, actually things were better than I thought in the sense that

01:02:34 the government was quite clear on the fiscal plan and to make sure that it's

01:02:39 disciplined the fiscal deficit, looking at a 15-year outlook and stuff like that

01:02:44 in the interviews that followed the budget.

01:02:47 So overall, there was nothing bad and it was an event which didn't threaten anything

01:02:53 but mostly may have reinforced people's views that the government is taking a disciplined stand on these things.

01:03:01 Let's talk about, I mean, the fact that you haven't watched it,

01:03:04 I don't want to dwell more on this budget.

01:03:06 But moving on, Jan is one month when we saw FBIs actually sell India more than any other market in Asia.

01:03:14 As we stand at the start of Feb, that buying came in pretty aggressively on Friday itself.

01:03:20 What do you think is going on with cuts of a rate cut now being pushed out?

01:03:25 Does India risk assets still seem like a trade out there?

01:03:30 I mean, you're in the US.

01:03:32 What is the sense you're picking up? India is still attractive?

01:03:35 There is too much interest in India.

01:03:37 The only issue they all have is, oh, are we late?

01:03:40 Is the valuation too high?

01:03:42 And we remind them that if you look at two-year returns of the Indian market,

01:03:46 even in rupee terms at the NSC 500 level, it is less than 14, 15 percent per annum in rupee terms,

01:03:55 which is lower or in line with our longer term five-year and 10-year average.

01:04:00 And also if you look at it in dollars, because in '22, the rupee depreciated 10 percent,

01:04:06 then actually over two years, the returns are cumulative around 20 percent.

01:04:11 The whole idea being to say you are not late, but the interest is very high.

01:04:15 I think January sales, some of it was related to people's disappointment with HDFC Bank,

01:04:22 and that might have led to a few billion here or there.

01:04:25 But overall interest is very high.

01:04:27 When it converts, how it converts, I think is a little bit the fund managers like us have to do a selling job

01:04:36 to them about India, but mostly it will happen on its own, I guess.

01:04:40 Sameer, morning. Tamanna here. Really liking your Desigul t-shirt.

01:04:44 Morning our time, of course.

01:04:47 This is Sunday night for me.

01:04:49 Fair enough. Fair enough.

01:04:51 So you've not watched the budget, but whatever it was in terms of trepidation for the market is behind us.

01:04:58 The elections are next, largely priced in.

01:05:01 What is the other big factor, the next big factor for the markets,

01:05:05 considering that corporate results have not been half bad on balance?

01:05:09 So actually over time, I've realized that you don't need everyday new events.

01:05:14 Bottom line is if you look at last five year or 10 year or 15 year or 20 year or 25 year

01:05:19 returns of the Indian market in dollar terms for the NSC 500, just convert to dollars,

01:05:25 it'll come to around 12, 11, 13 percent, which means in rupee terms, some 14, 15, 16 percent kind range.

01:05:33 And for that, it is more to do with earnings just continuing rather than saying event broadly means you're trying to re-rate something.

01:05:42 Obviously, the markets having done well, the ability for many sectors to re-rate is not there.

01:05:48 You should get the earnings that are coming and then plus minus a few percent here or there.

01:05:53 For example, last year, the MSCI India index went up some 21 or 22 percent and NSC 500 went up some 24, 25 percent.

01:06:04 In that, the earnings growth was 18 percent. So there was a 5, 6 percent or a 3 percent higher P/E at the end of the year compared to the start of the year.

01:06:15 And that is the range in which you should have these events play out.

01:06:19 The rest of it should be just earnings coming through and that plus minus 12, 13, 15 percent is we'll still get it this year and going forward.

01:06:29 Your take on the earnings in large part, because we have a bulk of them now to gauge at least the health of corporate India.

01:06:37 So IT, one could say not as bad as expected. Banking was a bit of a curated seg, HDFC, etc. has given a bit of anxiety.

01:06:47 What would be your take on Q3 overall?

01:06:50 Our take was that it was not overly exciting as a package, but it is still better than what many other markets have.

01:06:57 And in general, for some of them which were bad, the expectation is that going forward will be good.

01:07:04 And for those that were good, we are hoping that they will continue.

01:07:08 So overall, it was not something which would shake you out of a position.

01:07:12 But yes, it is not also that somebody can sell that the earnings are accelerating.

01:07:18 That's why I also said don't look at it like that. It should be within range.

01:07:23 A range means the growth rate and you will get returns plus minus in that growth rate rather than saying, as you asked, is there an event?

01:07:31 There is no real event in the short term. But the elections mostly are priced in.

01:07:37 And I think the month after election might be a negative month because of just too much hype having been built by that time.

01:07:45 But it still won't be something which will change India's trajectory.

01:07:49 Our relative position has improved a lot because it is difficult to find big countries with big GDP and markets growing at this rate.

01:07:59 And secondly, and quite importantly, people's frustration with China.

01:08:04 In the US last week, many, many investors said that they are broadly not even now allowed to invest.

01:08:12 Allowed means that their boards or their committees or whatever basically said don't bring China to us.

01:08:18 They may not formally say it, but that is the way many guys were talking.

01:08:23 Sameer, good morning. Neeraj here. And guys, one of my memories of Sameer Arora is a conversation that he did with us when he told us eventually all FinTechs will be NBFCs only.

01:08:34 So no, we don't want that. Now, Sameer, I want to come to you on that.

01:08:38 There is a lot of talk about how the regulator has kind of killed the FinTech business by virtue of what's happened in Paytm.

01:08:46 Any views, any thoughts here on what happens to FinTechs, what happens to Paytm, what happens to others?

01:08:52 So I don't think they have killed the FinTechs. What they have said is that we are regulating the bank.

01:08:58 We are not regulating the FinTech. So let the FinTech and the bank be at arm's length distance and not make it that the bank is an extension of the FinTech.

01:09:09 So my thinking is that Paytm will find in the next 20 days some other bank, some other, I hope, big bank to be the, play the role which their own bank was playing.

01:09:20 So in some sense, they may lose some business or some revenue, which would go to an outsider, third party bank rather than their own.

01:09:29 But the FinTech will continue. First of all, the market cap of Paytm is quite small now. They have a billion dollars cash.

01:09:37 By the way, we used to own 2% of Paytm before this, and now it has become 1% of 1.1%.

01:09:44 We are going to stay with it and we'll see over time what to do. But I think that, yes, there were mistakes made, but what to do.

01:09:53 This is life. You know, if you have 35 stocks, somebody somewhere will encounter some mishaps and they have to overcome them.

01:10:00 And we have to only say best of luck to them.

01:10:03 No, no, Sameer, but my overarching question was around whether you believe this whole tech, FinTech story, because earlier you had a different view, then you kind of realigned.

01:10:11 Do you believe that's alive and kicking or is there a difference there?

01:10:14 So my view was in the beginning when I said that there were 50 to 100 FinTechs.

01:10:19 So actually I said that most of them will go under, but obviously not 100% of them will go under.

01:10:24 And in the end, there were two or three big survivors, including Paytm and maybe PhonePe and a few others.

01:10:30 And others went to zero or got taken over, but basically at zero.

01:10:34 But at this point of time, when the price of Paytm had fallen from 2000 to some 500, we bought it first time at 520 rupees.

01:10:43 And now it is whatever 420, 440.

01:10:46 So, but a lot of progress had been made. So I don't think they're killing the FinTech.

01:10:51 They are maybe giving a signal to the FinTech that you have to still do the KYC properly and you have to do things as at least the parts that are regulated.

01:11:01 Obviously, they're not killing it as 40% share Paytm has.

01:11:05 And this whole digitalization has been possible because of companies like Paytm and PhonePe and others.

01:11:13 It can't be that you're suddenly going back.

01:11:15 In fact, in every meeting last week, I was telling all these US guys that, you know, Indian digitalization is ahead of US.

01:11:23 We can do this. We can do that. And I don't think anybody is planning to kill that.

01:11:28 It is now left to the market. But this regulatory part had to be dealt properly, which I guess PhonePe, sorry, Paytm didn't do.

01:11:36 Or their associate company or the associate bank did not do. For that, we are all paying the price.

01:11:43 The stock as we speak in pre-open trade, Sameer, is down another 10% at 439 rupees is what we have.

01:11:51 I want to talk about a couple of stocks or sectors that you like and top 20% of your holdings in the Ilios Flexicap fund is HDFC, ICFC Bank and SBI.

01:12:03 HDFC Bank, we've seen what's happened. We've also talked to, of course, your fund manager about his view on HDFC Bank.

01:12:10 And I believe you still maintain and are still constructive on the bank.

01:12:14 SBI earnings on the face of it looked weak, but a deep dive indicates that things still looking up for SBI and IBank.

01:12:22 Are you considering reaching, rebalancing some of your allocations amongst these three banks?

01:12:28 No, no, it's not worth it because first of all, all of them are quite similar for us in these all these funds that we have in 6, 7, 8%.

01:12:37 So whether you put one down 2% or one up 2%, it won't change life.

01:12:42 It's the whole concept of whether the banks and the private banks and particularly HDFC Bank where, you know, ICICI and SBI also haven't performed much last year.

01:12:53 But HDFC Bank is, you know, in everybody's eyes and what to do with it.

01:12:58 Broadly, we think that HDFC Bank has been overly penalized for, you know, visibly going into a sector or into a mortgage business,

01:13:09 which has lower margins where you need to replace the funding.

01:13:13 And whether you do it one quarter there or one quarter, please understand that you are making in any normal year, say, 15% return.

01:13:21 So if something goes slightly wrong here or there, and you take away 20 and 25% from the price over time, that is like you're taking away two years of returns.

01:13:33 I don't think that the problems or whatever was so bad.

01:13:37 Because if you look at the other companies, look at the biggest consumer finance companies in India, they are also growing because of housing finance.

01:13:44 Look at Bajaj Finance, basically growing because you have to go into mortgage finance. You do it in one shot or you do it over time.

01:13:51 Bottom line is everybody has to converge to doing X% mortgage finance, X% consumer finance, X% subprime or micro finance lending, X% SME.

01:14:02 There is no way that any one company has got the ability to grow in one area so much.

01:14:09 But there is such a big difference in their valuations and in their price or in their performance because of just the way you present yourself.

01:14:19 And that sense HDFC Bank should have been a bit more aggressive.

01:14:23 You look at the IT companies, quarter after quarter, they're disappointed on earnings.

01:14:28 And quarter after quarter, they spun you a story that in future we will get some orders, which by definition will be lower margin because those are cost cutting orders.

01:14:38 And the public accepted it. Public is sheep. The analysts are sheep. You have to guide them.

01:14:43 I would have loved to chat with you longer and I'd love to get you on PSU stocks because they've been in focus and your portfolio is about 4% on HPCL as well.

01:14:52 But hopefully some other time we are running very close to market opening. Good night and good luck with the week ahead.

01:14:59 Well, Samit, two minutes to go as we count down to market open. A quick one on your top trades for this morning.

01:15:06 See, as far as stock ideas are concerned, we have one buy and one sell.

01:15:11 Buy would be on Latent View, which has been consolidating off trade.

01:15:15 But this stock seems to be in a position where it can come out of its consolidation phase.

01:15:21 So we like Latent View for a target of 528. So it's a short term target. Stock can be placed now at 459.18.

01:15:29 Apart from this, Jubilant Foodworks has been the laggard since last month, one and a half. It has been continuously declining from its recent high.

01:15:37 So we expect Jubilant Foodworks to continue this downward move.

01:15:41 So as a short seller, one can keep a stock loss around 512 and we expect the stock sliding towards 474.

01:15:49 OK, about a minute left. Samit Chauhan, just one quick word on the stocks that have started off in the pre-open session.

01:15:58 Tata Motors, UPL, etc. Quick 30 seconds. Is there a trade on any of those that you foresee based on the pre-open, based on the openings that they will likely have?

01:16:07 Yeah, as far as UPL is concerned, this is continuously declining and it is likely to reach its important spot of 520.

01:16:16 So the moment it stays below 520 for say 10-15 minutes, you could see the stock, you know, descending towards 500.

01:16:24 So overall, the trend has been quite negative and you know, one should avoid any kind of bottom fishing at current level.

01:16:33 As far as the resistance level, 545-45 can be seen as a little bit harder. And below 520, the stock can head towards 500.

01:16:41 OK, you know, I think important words from Samit Chauhan, avoid bottom fishing.

01:16:46 Samit, please stay on because we'll want a lot of your views post-market open. It promises to be a morning which will be packed with news flow.

01:16:54 The only question is, what do some of the individual broadening of the spectrum stocks do, particularly delivery?

01:17:00 We haven't spoken about that at all. I'm sure we'll mark it on the open as well.

01:17:05 But here are the first rates, quite unlike what the implied open was suggesting or maybe hurtling towards that, who knows.

01:17:11 But a flattish start for the large caps, at least pull up the Bank Nifty down about 0.43%.

01:17:17 What is egging the index high? We'll get to that in a moment. Just the mid caps and the small caps very quickly.

01:17:22 About a third of a percent for the mid caps and a small cap index, half a percent.

01:17:26 OK, so the market breadth doesn't seem to be too bad. I'm interested in seeing what is helping the index.

01:17:31 Can you pull up that aside of Tata Motors? What else is out there? Top draw. Let's get the heat map up.

01:17:37 Tata Motors, 6% higher. I think that probably single handedly doing the trick because in terms of heavyweights, do I see something else?

01:17:46 Not really in the top 10 gainers. IT may be a bit because both TCS and Tech Mahindra are in the green, but very, I mean, actually almost even Stevens.

01:17:56 So if Tata Motors is doing really well, followed by Sun Pharma and Tata Steel, what is not doing well is UPL down about 4.5%

01:18:05 and the Bank Nifty is pegged down by SBI's result reaction and Kotak HDFC and ICICI Bank being down half a percent in the red.

01:18:14 So no big gyrations here on the index per se. You look at the index, it's evenly balanced with Tata Motors on one side,

01:18:22 maybe a Sun Pharma, maybe an Aishwar, but essentially an auto morning because M&M is also participating and UPL on the downside down 5%.

01:18:30 Remember, Samit Chauhan said if it slips below 5.20, which I think it has now, then UPL kind of enters into dangerous territory on the downside.

01:18:39 So be mindful of that. But the broader market is below the action is. Absolutely.

01:18:43 You know, it's interesting how the markets are responding very specifically to what the numbers look like.

01:18:49 So rewarding Tata Motors at one end and punishing UPL on the other.

01:18:53 I'm going to start with Paytm and no prizes for guessing what's happening with the stock this morning.

01:18:58 It has been residing on lower circuit for the last few sessions and is stuck there at 438.

01:19:07 There doesn't seem to be any clear redemption for Paytm as far as investors are concerned.

01:19:12 And there you have it, UPL, Neeraj already covered. But yes, UPL also feeling some of the pain this morning.

01:19:20 I'm going to go to Interglobe though, Indigo. So again, profits have zoomed.

01:19:25 It's a great quarter, fifth consecutive quarter of profit. But this one is particularly good.

01:19:30 A clutch of reports also showing an upside, you know, some insight on whether they start a business class segment as well.

01:19:38 And that's stock up 5% this morning. Z is the other one I'll talk about.

01:19:43 So they don't really have any kind of positive news, but a setback to their opponent, at least in court.

01:19:50 So Sony had moved SIAC for arbitration and they were denied this.

01:19:54 That is perhaps positive for Z at this point, at least momentarily.

01:19:59 And Railtel is the other one I would look at. It's got a 125 crore order from Western Railways.

01:20:06 Mild movement there. Just one more I want to pull up is Aurobindo Pharma.

01:20:11 A lot of news flow and the stock has already been hammered quite a bit.

01:20:15 Those concerns continue after they have gone to the exchanges and clarified that, yes, indeed,

01:20:21 there have been nine inspection reports from the US FDA at their Telangana unit.

01:20:27 That stock about 4% down this morning. But the story seems to be all about auto this morning, Samina.

01:20:33 There's lots of big, big moves in auto and Tata Motors is stealing the show this morning.

01:20:38 And of course, Maruti as well. Those monthly numbers look pretty fantastic.

01:20:42 We're sort of getting spoiled with Maruti. Month on month, they've been reporting good numbers.

01:20:46 The stock premium is putting that in the bag and has seen activity in the last couple of days.

01:20:51 So profit taking on news is what we're getting. But TAMU is up 7% as we speak.

01:20:56 A couple of other names that are worth a mention on Back of News.

01:20:59 So let's pull up delivery. The logistics majors reported profits at an operating level

01:21:04 as well as at a net level for the December quarter. The stock is up a percent and a half.

01:21:10 The argument here is that they have seen a turnaround. So re-dating on the counter is likely.

01:21:17 Numbers may or may not sustain. Usually, quarter three is very strong.

01:21:22 Whether or not this sustains going ahead is one thing you want to watch out for.

01:21:26 Apart from that, DB Realty, if I can pull that one up too, they're considering restructuring

01:21:30 de-merger of its hotel business when the board will meet on the 9th of February.

01:21:35 On back of that, the counter trades with a gain of 5.5% in opening trade.

01:21:42 Apart from that, couple of other movers. You've got UPL that's down 5% that Tamana mentioned.

01:21:48 Interglobe is up 5%. Gujarat Alkalees is down 4%. So big cut coming in on Gujarat Alkalees.

01:21:54 Bank of India is down 8%. R Power is down 4%. Fine Organics is also down 3%.

01:22:02 Paytm is at lower circuit. We've already highlighted that for you.

01:22:05 Vietec is up 5% and DB Realty also looking quite sweet with a 5% up move.

01:22:11 So all in all, reactions very stock specific. But the day belongs to Tata Motors, guys.

01:22:17 7% on a heavy weight after such a sharp run-up last week.

01:22:22 And last year, the best performing index stock of 2023 was Tata Motors.

01:22:27 I'm very excited about this Hyundai news as well. So you're going to see this passenger vehicle excitement.

01:22:31 We can see that. That's thrice in the last one hour that she's mentioned.

01:22:35 She's clearly very excited. I am excited.

01:22:37 But let's ask Sameer Chavan with us on take first on the indices and then Tata Motors.

01:22:44 As far as indices are concerned, we continue to remain a bit watchful, a bit cautious at higher levels.

01:22:53 Nifty is likely to struggle around 21,950-22,000 for the day.

01:22:59 And the moment we see Nifty sliding below 21,800, we could see some portraiters running for shelter.

01:23:07 And then probably going to 760 levels can be retested.

01:23:11 So again, the financial remains to be the weakest link as we just alluded to in the opening remarks also.

01:23:18 Now, Bank Nifty is reaching closer towards its important support of 45,500.

01:23:23 So that cluster remains to be an important support for an intraday perspective.

01:23:29 And once we see Bank Nifty sliding below 45,500, we could see it heading towards 45,200 probably in a day or two.

01:23:38 And then some 45,000 territory can be tested.

01:23:44 Sameer, that of course is Tata Motors that we are talking about.

01:23:50 But just getting beyond that, how are you feeling about some of these PSU stocks?

01:23:54 The rally was compelling last on Friday.

01:23:58 This morning as well, some of those counters still looking pretty good.

01:24:01 Any trades here? Anything that's staring at you this morning that you could initiate a fresh long on?

01:24:07 Some of the OMC counters, that certainly looks appealing.

01:24:12 So as far as oil marketing companies are concerned, we like IOC at current level.

01:24:19 It is trading around 167 and there has been a dream run that the entire oil marketing company has seen in the last couple of months.

01:24:28 So minor dip would be a good buying opportunity.

01:24:31 There's a strong structure that we are observing on all time stream charts.

01:24:35 So overall, we believe that any dip is likely to get bought into in those names and probably at lower level,

01:24:41 you could see good buying interest coming in this oil marketing company.

01:24:45 So as far as IOC is concerned, it has already challenged its previous highs, trading in uncharted territory.

01:24:51 And now it is clearly zooming towards 180.

01:24:54 I was just trying to look at what else is moving.

01:25:01 So INOX wind is up about 2%. I wonder if Suzlon has also gained in the session today,

01:25:06 because we've seen how some of these renewable stories are active.

01:25:10 3% now for INOX wind, Suzlon another percent and a half.

01:25:13 And remember last week, some of these renewable companies had done really well.

01:25:16 Sameer, I know not too many of them in derivatives, but maybe look at the charts and talk about some of these,

01:25:22 which have had a really good run in the month of January, so to say.

01:25:27 As far as Suzlon stock is concerned, we know this counter for its long-run performance.

01:25:34 And now if you see in last six to seven months, the stock has picked up some momentum.

01:25:40 Importantly, it is backed by robust volume.

01:25:43 So at least for the near to medium-term perspective, this stock is likely to do well.

01:25:49 As far as levels are concerned, we can see 55 to 58 levels coming in probably next three to four weeks.

01:25:57 So overall, the structure remains bullet.

01:25:59 And this stock has been clearly bucking the trend overall.

01:26:02 If you see, there's a series of high-rise, high-lows can be witnessed in daily as well as weekly time frame charts.

01:26:08 So overall, the stock has formed a good base around 35-35-50 mark.

01:26:14 And from here on, we will not be surprised to see this stock heading towards 55-58 levels.

01:26:20 Okay. What else is reacting to results?

01:26:23 You know, I think the one name, so Bank of India apparently on results down about 8%.

01:26:28 So that is to be kept in mind.

01:26:30 But what and Gujarat Alkali is down 4%.

01:26:32 I think the stock, the other stock of the morning has to be Integral Aviation.

01:26:37 Great results, yields at all-time highs.

01:26:40 They haven't enjoyed such yields in their lifetime.

01:26:42 And they've gotten that. The load factor is about 85.

01:26:46 So that's par for the course.

01:26:48 And doesn't seem like the mood is dying considering the flights that we see every single time at the airport.

01:26:53 4% higher for Indigo currently.

01:26:55 Sumit, it's not a stock that has not done well ahead of the results.

01:26:58 Up about 4-5% ahead of the results also.

01:27:01 And now gaining further.

01:27:02 Now I'm just trying to understand. We know the results are good.

01:27:04 But does it look like there is more juice left in Interglobal Aviation?

01:27:08 See, looks like there's an important technical development that has happened today itself.

01:27:14 Stock has reached its previous high with a breakaway gap.

01:27:17 So that suggests that at least for the next couple of days, 3100-3150 seems to be a very strong support.

01:27:25 And if this gap remains unfilled for the day or tomorrow, then we could see this stock even making an attempt towards 3400-3450.

01:27:36 So overall, as far as today's development is concerned, if the gap remains unfilled,

01:27:42 we could see this rally getting extended to 3400-3450. These are the next levels to work out for.

01:27:48 Sumit, very quickly on Reliance Industries. A little bit of a flat day this morning, sub 3000 on RIL.

01:27:56 Would you buy it at these levels for the week?

01:27:59 I think one should wait. 2920-2930 seems to be an immediate hurdle.

01:28:08 So if this stock manages to surpass and stays above it, then probably this stock can make an attempt towards 3000.

01:28:16 But as of now, it is in a kind of consolidation range. 2920 seems to be a resistance low.

01:28:24 There's support around 2850. So we would rather wait for a breakout to happen from this important point.

01:28:31 Okay. Sumit Chauhan, we'll leave it at that. Thank you so much for your insights this morning and have a great week ahead.

01:28:41 Well, so that's the view on the trade thus far. The big news, of course, is the budget.

01:28:47 All the last few days and an exclusive interaction with NDTV Profit.

01:28:51 The first I might add that Finance Minister Nirmal Sikraman had with any private network.

01:28:55 She spoke about fixing valuations of PSUs and not cutting down CapEx allocation. Listen in as we take a short break.

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