10 Day Trend 08/11/2023 – More rain for all? - Met Office Weather Forecast - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days, dated 08/11/2023.  Low pressure and weather fronts dominate our weather for the next week or more, so we can all expect more rain. A gap in the rain should bring many places a fine day on Saturday with a frosty night to follow.   Bringing you this 10 day trend is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.

Transcript

00:00 It's the time of year where many different weather scenarios are possible.

00:04 Stormy weather, obviously, as we've seen, but also we could see high pressure and fine

00:09 late autumn sunshine and misty mornings.

00:12 Also the time of year where people start scanning for any cold weather and any whiff of snow.

00:17 I'm here to tell you that none of those three scenarios are particularly likely, but I can

00:23 guarantee there will be more rain in the next 10 days.

00:27 Here's the bigger picture, the view of the jet stream.

00:30 It's been particularly active recently and also particularly south shifted, taking low

00:35 pressure systems and wet weather across Spain and France, as well as bringing them towards

00:40 the UK.

00:41 Not a huge deal of change over the next five or so days, although signs of it weakening

00:47 a little bit as we head through the weekend.

00:50 But look at this, another ribbon high in the atmosphere of active, strong winds.

00:56 The jet stream barrels its way back towards the UK for the new working week, but it has

01:03 shifted a little further north.

01:04 And that is perhaps one trend that will continue through the next couple of weeks.

01:10 With the jet stream coming in like this, you know that means low pressure and that's what's

01:14 going to dominate our weather for the next several days.

01:18 Spiraling around us through the rest of this working week, then we'll see another tangle

01:21 of weather fronts, another low for Sunday and another one follows them behind on Monday.

01:27 These weather fronts will bring outbreaks of rain, but as you can see, they're always

01:30 coming in from the west.

01:32 So bringing reasonably mild air with them as they do so from the Atlantic.

01:38 Let's just rewind because there is a little gap, a brief respite, as you will, for Saturday.

01:44 We're not really in a ridge of high pressure.

01:46 We're in what's known as a cull, where you're between two areas of low pressure and two

01:51 areas of high pressure.

01:53 It's a kind of weather no man's land.

01:55 And that's where we are on Saturday.

01:57 But it does mean that most of us will have a fine day on Saturday.

02:01 Around this low, there'll still be a breeze coming in from the north and there's a hint

02:05 of blue on the chart.

02:06 There will be some frost around through this weekend.

02:09 And although there'll be a few scattered showers in the west, certainly initially, many places

02:13 on Saturday will have a dry and a bright day with some of that autumn sunshine.

02:19 As we go through Saturday night, however, be aware that it will turn pretty cold, a

02:24 more widespread frost for Sunday morning, with still a few scattered showers across

02:29 the far north.

02:30 Perhaps not as cold in the southwest because the cloud could be moving in here as we start

02:35 to see the next weather system coming in.

02:37 But as I said, for many, Saturday does look like a window of fine weather, but it will

02:42 bring with it that likelihood of morning frost and also some fog with light winds.

02:48 That's almost inevitable at this time of year.

02:51 So frost and fog through the course of the weekend.

02:54 And then as we head out to the west, this next weather system comes in during Sunday.

02:59 That will bring a spell of rain.

03:00 Some uncertainty about the exact timing of this as it moves in, but most places will

03:04 see some rain during the course of Sunday from this area of low pressure.

03:08 And then as we saw earlier, that's followed by another one bringing another spell of rain

03:12 likely across the country for Monday.

03:15 They will be bringing bands of rain, but they will also be bringing milder air.

03:19 So it turns a little colder in that cold through Saturday.

03:23 But as these weather systems come in from the Atlantic, as I mentioned, they're going

03:26 to be drifting and bringing with them relatively mild air from the west or the southwest.

03:32 So we'll start to see the temperatures rising as we go into it next week.

03:36 We'll look at that in a bit more detail in just a second.

03:39 But first of all, let's look at the rainfall, because it's all coming in from the Atlantic.

03:43 So it'll be western areas that bear the brunt of the rain.

03:46 And these two charts show the accumulation of rainfall over four days from Friday through

03:53 the weekend and Monday as well from two different models, from the Met Office model and from

03:57 the European model.

03:58 And then pretty good agreement that it's going to be western areas, these darker colours,

04:02 the darker oranges, particularly the hills that see the most rainfall with parts of the

04:07 east with the rainfall shadow not seeing as much.

04:10 So yes, we are expecting some wet weather over the next four or five days, but nothing

04:14 exceptional in these rainfall totals with those western hills really bearing the brunt.

04:20 What about those temperatures?

04:21 Well, as I mentioned, we will be seeing an uptick into the new week next week.

04:26 I picked Birmingham here to show the the meteorogram or the temperature trend.

04:30 I could have picked almost anywhere showing these red box and whiskers plots are below

04:35 the average line, which is this line here for the rest of this week.

04:39 But then they do jump up a little bit and it's turning a bit milder into next week and

04:43 the nights in particular.

04:45 That dip, as we saw, increased chance of frost through the weekend as those nights get colder

04:50 and colder than average before they also take an uptick and mostly above average throughout

04:56 next week.

04:57 So on the chilly side through this week and into this weekend and then turning milder

05:01 again for next week.

05:04 What about the rest of next week?

05:05 Well, it's likely to be dominated by low pressure.

05:08 This is the pressure trends from the multi model.

05:12 So when we run all the models many, many times, blue is low pressure.

05:16 The date's going forward along the top.

05:18 Previous computer model runs down the side.

05:20 So a strong signal here, a lot of consistency that, well, it's going to be low pressure

05:26 dominating as we've seen through the weekend, but also for most of next week.

05:30 The blues get a little paler as we go through the latter part of next week.

05:34 But still, it looks most likely that low pressure will be dominating.

05:39 Another way to look at that, and this is just from the European model, is to look at the

05:42 pressure anomaly or the pressure when compared to average.

05:47 And the bluey green colours here are when pressure is going to be lower than average.

05:52 And this is averaged over the whole of next week.

05:54 So from Monday to Monday through next week.

05:57 And you can see that across the whole of the UK, we're in the bluer zone.

06:01 So pressure is going to be lower than average and particularly lower than average up to

06:05 the northwest of the UK.

06:07 So again, just telling us that signal that low pressure is going to be in control and

06:12 that more likely than not, it'll be westerly winds, which means western areas are more

06:17 likely to see the wetter weather.

06:19 And that's what this is showing us.

06:21 This is the rainfall over that week from Monday to Monday.

06:25 And again, it's the anomaly compared to average.

06:27 So western areas see more rain than average anyway, but this is comparing it to those

06:32 averages.

06:33 So the darker greens in the west just suggesting that the west will be wetter than average,

06:39 even though the west is also the wettest part of the UK, if that makes sense.

06:43 So, yes, suggesting again that western areas will bear the brunt of the rainfall as we

06:47 go through next week.

06:49 And that's what we'd expect with a fairly active jet stream coming in from the Atlantic.

06:54 So it looks like the weather is going to be dominated by west or southwesterly winds for

06:57 most of next week, bringing further spells of rain.

07:01 How strong the winds get?

07:02 Well, that will be determined by the exact shape of the jet stream and how it wiggles.

07:06 So that's something we're keeping an eye on.

07:08 But generally, west or southwesterly winds bringing in spells of rain.

07:12 But it'll be western areas that bear the brunt of the rain as well.

07:16 And also temperatures are likely through next week to be a little bit above average.

07:22 As always, for the day to day details, please do keep up to date with everything the Met

07:27 Office does.

07:28 You can follow us right across social media.

07:30 If you're watching this on YouTube, please do hit subscribe.

07:33 Bye.

10 Day Trend 08/11/2023 – More rain for all? - Met Office Weather Forecast

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