Week Ahead 16/10/2023 – Calm start then stormy - Met Office UK Weather
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the week ahead 16/10/2023.
Storm Babet will hit the UK later this week, heavy rain is very likely to cause some flooding and strong winds will be an extra hazard. Keep up to date with the forecast and warnings.
Bringing you this forecast for the week ahead is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
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We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.
Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.
Storm Babet will hit the UK later this week, heavy rain is very likely to cause some flooding and strong winds will be an extra hazard. Keep up to date with the forecast and warnings.
Bringing you this forecast for the week ahead is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
~
Subscribe to make sure you never miss the latest UK weather forecast or important weather warning - https://www.youtube.com/c/metoffice?sub_confirmation=1
We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.
Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 A dry, calm start to the week for many, but it won't be ending that way.
00:05 Storm Barbet is on the way, an area of low pressure that we named on Monday morning because
00:09 we are particularly concerned about the rainfall building up later this week from Wednesday
00:16 onwards.
00:17 As the storm system tracks northwards, it will be picking up moisture.
00:20 The isobars are squeezing together, so it will also be turning quite windy.
00:23 But as I said, it's mostly the rainfall because as it tracks northwards, it slows down, being
00:29 slowed by an area of high pressure building over Scandinavia.
00:32 And that could really stall these weather fronts.
00:35 So where they lie, they could drop several hours of heavy rain in some locations.
00:41 So as I said, we are particularly concerned about the rainfall.
00:44 There are a number of warnings in place.
00:47 This map shows the rainfall building up through the course of the week, initially across parts
00:51 of the West, but increasingly from Thursday onwards.
00:55 Look at the rainfall totals really building up there across parts of eastern Scotland.
01:00 So as I said, a few areas we're keeping a very close eye on, particularly initially
01:05 through Wednesday night and Thursday across parts of Northern Ireland.
01:09 But also notice the rainfall totals building up over parts of Northern England, North and
01:14 East Wales.
01:15 And with the winds coming in from the east, that's an unusual direction.
01:18 So that could exacerbate the problems.
01:19 And with the winds coming in from the east across eastern Scotland, rainfall totals here
01:25 by Saturday could top out around 200 millimetres and say that is likely to cause some disruption.
01:32 Still a bit of uncertainty about the exact position and where those weather fronts lie.
01:36 So do keep up to date with the forecast, but do check out our weather warnings on our app
01:42 and on our website.
01:43 OK, let's get back to the week ahead forecast day by day, because actually Tuesday is a
01:48 pretty good looking day for the most part.
01:50 A few showers over the northern isles of Scotland, cloud increasing in the southwest, a bit of
01:55 showery rain for Devon, Cornwall, Pembrokeshire and later on into Northern Ireland.
01:59 But for a good chunk of the country, it's dry and bright.
02:02 That east or southeasterly wind will be picking up.
02:05 You'll feel that on some of those North Sea coasts and could get quite blustery at times,
02:10 particularly to the west of the hills across West Wales and southwest England, quite gusty
02:16 through the course of Tuesday.
02:17 Temperature is actually a little higher compared to Monday's, but it won't feel any warmer
02:21 because of the strength of the wind and the wind strengthened further as the storm system
02:25 tracks further north during Tuesday night and Wednesday.
02:28 One set of weather fronts pushing rain across Northern Ireland into western Scotland and
02:33 then we'll see further pulses of rain tracking northwards into Wales and southern England.
02:39 Again, for most of the day, eastern England, eastern Scotland will be dry on Wednesday,
02:45 but that wind will be getting stronger and stronger, could bring some large waves to
02:49 parts of eastern Scotland.
02:51 That rain getting heavier as it comes towards Northern Ireland, parts of Wales and southwest
02:55 England.
02:56 Temperatures again on the rise, ticking up a little bit, but again, not feeling all that
03:01 mild with the wind and the rain.
03:03 And speaking of the rain, we do have a Met Office warning, a first of the warnings in
03:06 place across parts of Northern Ireland through Wednesday and into Thursday.
03:10 By the time we get to Thursday, we are fully under the influence of Storm Barbet as it
03:15 tracks steadily northwards.
03:18 And as I said, where these weather fronts lie, that is absolutely crucial to where we
03:22 see the heaviest and most persistent rain during Wednesday night and into Thursday.
03:28 Still a bit of uncertainty.
03:29 These weather fronts could be a little further north, could be a little further south.
03:31 But at the moment, it looks like eastern parts of Scotland with that wind feeding in the
03:35 moisture all the while from the North Sea.
03:38 Those rainfall totals building up, there will be heavy showers elsewhere, something
03:42 a bit brighter, maybe in between the downpours.
03:45 And again, temperatures will be a little higher, but stuck with that strong wind from the North
03:49 Sea and persistent rain, it's going to feel pretty cold, I'd have thought, in eastern
03:53 Scotland.
03:54 And we do have warnings in place for Thursday and into Friday, mostly rain warnings, but
03:59 a wind warning too for those gusts across parts of Scotland.
04:03 And as I said, particularly around the coast where there could be some large waves, those
04:06 warnings in place into Friday, where we still have further pulses of rain to come across
04:12 the country and the brighter colours suggesting that rain is likely to be heavy in places
04:17 too.
04:18 Again, some uncertainty about the exact location of the weather fronts all the while, these
04:22 easterly winds bringing a chilly feel to those North Sea coasts.
04:26 And with the outbreaks of rain, temperatures struggling to get even into the teens, perhaps
04:30 something a little drier down towards the southwest.
04:33 By this stage, the area of high pressure across Scandinavia may well be starting to influence
04:38 things.
04:39 So the rain may then slip back further south.
04:42 So keep up to date if you've got plans for the weekend, because that easterly wind will
04:46 be bringing a chillier feel.
04:48 But before that, as I said, we're mostly concerned about the rainfall really building up through
04:53 Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
04:55 So do keep up to date with the latest and do check out the details of those weather warnings
05:01 for yourself.
05:02 The best way to do that, check out the app or of course our website.
05:05 And of course, throughout this week, stay up to date with us across social media.
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