China PMI bumper Golden Week travel give glimmers of hope for economy

  • 8 months ago
China PMI, bumper 'Golden Week' travel give glimmers of hope for economy
China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 50.2 in September, indicating expansion for the first time since March.
This is fueling hopes that the economy is regaining momentum after a major slowdown.
Activity in services and construction also accelerated, reaching its best level in three months.
Economists believe that the PMI survey covers mostly larger, state-owned enterprises, while a private gauge of activity focuses on smaller, private firms.
Despite some loss of momentum in both manufacturing and services, the PMI readings suggest that the Chinese economy may be picking up again.
During the annual "Golden Week" holiday, China experienced a boom in travel.
On the first day of the holiday, the country's national railway handled a record-breaking 20.1 million passenger trips.
The Ministry of Transport expects highway traffic to also hit a record, with an estimated 66 million vehicles on the roads.
For the entire break, 896 million domestic trips were expected to be made by rail, air, roads, and waterways, up 15% from 2019.
This surge in domestic travel is seen as a positive sign for an economy that has been struggling with tepid domestic demand.
Recent data have shown signs of stabilization in the Chinese economy.
Profits at industrial firms jumped 17.2% in August, and industrial production increased 4.5% in August from a year earlier.
Retail sales also rose 4.6% in August, the fastest growth since May.
Analysts believe that these positive trends are a result of the raft of policy measures unveiled by the government since late July.
These measures include trimming interest rates, scrapping restrictions on home purchases and car buying, and allowing local governments to accelerate borrowing for infrastructure investment.
While there are signs of stabilization and optimism, some concerns remain.
The World Bank has cut its 2024 forecast for China's GDP growth, citing difficulties such as elevated debt, the property market crisis, and an aging population.
Additionally, Chinese consumers are traveling within Asia in fewer numbers compared to pre-pandemic levels.
Troubles at Evergrande Group, the world's most indebted developer, have also cast uncertainty on the future of the property sector.
Despite the positive indicators, caution remains regarding the overall growth of the Chinese economy.

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