00:00 Welcome, this is BQ Prime. I am Agam Vakil. We are taking stock of the futures and options
00:06 space in the F&O show here. And well, today is a big day, the monthly expiry where we
00:11 see both the Nifty as well as the Bank Nifty options expire on the same day for a change.
00:19 What we're looking at as far as the indices are concerned, and we've been talking about
00:22 this a little earlier as well, we've seen the benchmarks come off, well, rather make
00:28 highs in this month and then come off, take a step back. And at the moment, we're in a
00:33 little bit of a range. We're going to take a view of all of this, of course, but for
00:38 now, also to address as to what's really happening with respect to the markets today in today's
00:45 expiry itself. We're seeing a lot more writing around as far as the Nifty goes, at least
00:51 a lot more writing around the 19,700 call. And in terms of many other options as well,
01:04 we're also starting to see a little bit more writing coming through around the 19,600 put
01:08 as well. But we're still looking at a range of around 19,800 to 19,600 as far as today's
01:15 day of trade is concerned. It's a 200-point range. This is based on maximum open interest.
01:20 Bank Nifty is a little more interesting. Why? Because we're moving in and out of the 44,500
01:28 levels below and above that. Why is this crucial? Because since May, 44,500 has been the level
01:35 which, in fact, has been a little bit of a pivot. And we continue to test markets above
01:42 and below that over the past few months. And in fact, in the meantime, the Bank Nifty has
01:48 also tried and tested a new high while moving above this mark. And now, yesterday, we tested
01:55 it and once again, we are trying to see whether or not we close above or below it. So it's
01:59 going to be an important level to watch out for. Of course, as far as the maximum open
02:02 interest on the higher end is concerned, we're looking at 45,000. And on the lower end, 44,000
02:08 put still has max OI, but it's not going to be as relevant as 44,500. And perhaps we can
02:15 get an expert view on that to see if there is any confirmation with respect to the trends
02:20 playing out, not only in today's day of trade, but also moving in to the next couple of days
02:25 as well. Well, we have with us Jai Thakkar. He is CMT. He is also the VP and head of alternate
02:33 research at Sharecard. Jai, good morning and thank you so much for joining in. You know,
02:39 very confusing cues, but option premiums are also very, very subdued. What are you making
02:43 of the markets, Jai, specifically? Let's start with the Nifty.
02:46 Hi, good morning to you, Agam. And good to see you again after a long time. And as far
02:55 as the markets are concerned, I would say that definitely the trend has been down since
03:03 it has hit 20,000. Interestingly, what we see this time around, Agam, is that the Pan
03:10 didn't take off his weakness eyes. So, with the small capitalization, they also did not
03:18 take off their weakness eyes, technically speaking. And Nifty didn't take off his eye,
03:24 made headlines of 20,000 plus. And there you see the fall coming thereafter. So there was
03:31 a clear negative tetheredness. And as there was a reversal in the initial two days, that
03:36 was very clear that most of the analysis that was just the Nifty that made a new high. And
03:43 we saw that negative tether was playing out and the correction thereafter coming in. What
03:48 does that mean is that the short-term trend remains sideways to the Nifty. But on an immediate
03:53 basis, you see that we had seen a very smart recovery coming in Nifty in which it was doing
03:58 very well. Where the PCR added food improved significantly. I mean, that term neutral is
04:03 down negative again. But from negative, that term neutral in yesterday's session.
04:08 Making a low of almost 99.50, 95.50 and closing about 97. That was something I would say a good
04:16 achievement in yesterday's session. In Nifty's data, it's showing definitely relatively slim
04:22 as compared to back to 50, 50, or any other index or maybe less compared to the quick gap of
04:32 IT, any other index. So Nifty is showing that little bit of strength. And I would say that
04:39 I think that Nifty is an indicator support. The trading strategy from here on for an immediate
04:45 expiry, that is the next week expiry when we have a truncated peak again,
04:50 and option premiums are certainly a good thing. That means that we have a long weekend to go and
04:58 the premiums are going to be remaining down. You see in today's market as well,
05:02 basically the premium coming down, not more than 50 and by 50. So relatively, if you see Nifty
05:09 futures is down by 25 points, I think it's more than 10 points. So in the short term, what I feel
05:15 is that the range of 19,700 to 16,600 should be utilized as a minor possibility. The stock price
05:22 should be this place low, or maybe below that. What you can target on an immediate basis is
05:29 19,700 to 16,900. That is it. I mean, we are not seeing a bounce beyond 20,000 or above 20,000
05:38 as of now. I mean, we really need to check whether the reversal, whatever happens or has happened
05:44 in history, whether that's sustainable or not as of now, it's just a temporary bounce. And so the
05:49 case with the diamond J250 as well, as you can see the bounce, I mean, what did we talk, under
05:54 the level of 45,000, what is that, 200. I mean, I cannot beyond that. So it's a temporary pause
06:00 to be down trend is what I can say as of now. And looking at the roll over as well, I mean,
06:06 we are not seeing a good roll over as well as we have seen so far. I mean, we are below the 6.3
06:13 average. So, now the short term bounce for the world is a sign of short term.
06:19 Sure. Sure. Right. So let's take stock of the Bank Nifty. And well, we are once again at 44,500.
06:29 I was just talking about how that's become a little bit of a crucial point
06:34 around over the last few months. What's your take here on the Bank Nifty?
06:37 Well, you know, the problem is, as I said, Bank Nifty, J50 are relatively weak, you know,
06:44 see, as I said that Nifty made a drawback, Bank Nifty was not able to. And if you overall see the
06:53 replacement of its previous, so Bank Nifty had a drawback of, you know, it was from 48,800.
06:58 Right. And then, you know, we have seen this time around, it was 44,100. So we have seen more of
07:06 replacement of its previous one as far as Bank Nifty is concerned. And suppose if the short term
07:13 bottom is in place, then too what I believe is going forward the medium term time frame,
07:19 46,000 to 44,000 or maybe 43,800, that's going to be the range when the coming expiry. So coming
07:25 expiry, according to me, is going to be a range moment. I mean, the current expiry, you see,
07:31 I mean, what we've seen is it has been positive movement. More of which we saw good momentum on
07:36 the upside, it says that this week is what we have seen, or since past couple of days is what
07:41 we've seen profit moving from the high levels, otherwise most of the September series has been
07:45 positive. I mean, you know, if it were a bottom, I think it would have made a new lifetime. Right.
07:51 So September has shown both moves up and down. And October is going to be more or less,
08:00 I would say volatile, or maybe it's going to be more of sideways. And overall, if you also look
08:05 at the global trend, I mean, if you look at the BXY, that's not pointing out that bottom
08:14 maybe, you know, good stock moves are out there, it's required to be a good bottom as of now.
08:20 Otherwise, you know, Bank Nifty can just bounce back to 45,000, that's what I said right now.
08:25 Or maybe Bank Nifty falls back to 5,000, it's not going to be levels, it's not going to be
08:28 levels as of now. So 10-monthly bounce is what is expected out there. In fact,
08:33 relatively, it's weak as compared to Nifty. So I would prefer Nifty over Bank Nifty.
08:40 I prefer Nifty over Bank Nifty for now. Let's move on, shift focus perhaps towards stocks now.
08:47 At the moment, at least as far as the EFNO space goes, we are looking at a lot of traction in MCX.
08:53 MCX, of course, has moved up around 6.1% on an intraday basis, we are looking at a lot of strength
08:59 and some good traction coming in. I reckon this will likely be towards the long side.
09:04 L&T is the other one, which is also around 2.1%. The interesting thing about L&T is that it showed
09:09 up on our radar yesterday as well, where we actually saw short covering, if you consider,
09:14 across all series. And today as well, we are looking at more buildup. So I reckon we've likely
09:20 seen some long building up as well. Vedanta yesterday was weak, but today it has advanced
09:26 by around 1.1%. So, well, we're going to have to wait and watch for the data at the end of the day
09:32 for the power copy, whether or not we've seen some shorts being covered or no. But for now,
09:37 these are some of those buzzing stocks. You know, Ajay, we'll take your view on a handful of them.
09:42 Let's start by talking about one sugar company which is on your radar, Balram Puccini.
09:49 What's your view here? Balram Puccini definitely looks positive.
09:53 We have seen good long buildup out here. The trend overall, technically, also,
09:59 you see has been quite positive out here. And in fact, the stock has provided a nice breakout
10:05 in the late months, at least in the solidation as well. So, it has got a tendency of going to be
10:10 a bad first round, but then at least for a couple of days, it will be available in the future.
10:16 And I believe in May or so, for the next couple of weeks. But then, you know, the traders interest
10:22 out here is definitely quite high. But then, yes, Balram Puccini is one stock to keep an eye on.
10:28 I think if you look at all the sugar stocks, they have been quite good from the north and
10:33 across. And you see that they have a lot of rainbow sugar, the piano sugar,
10:37 have been good from the north. But technically, it's Balram Puccini that has provided a breakout.
10:41 And I see the stock moving in the limits of 480, 495 in the data. 444 is a very good support. So,
10:47 this is a very strong buy at this point of time. Okay, I'm going to club the two FMCG companies
10:54 together because, well, Jai has a view on HUL as well as Tata Consumer. Can you take us through
11:01 both these calls, Jai? Sure. Well, see, Agam, I think that HUL has definitely underperformed quite
11:09 a lot. Just from the point of view of short-terming, I'm recommending HUL at least because
11:19 the receiver is definitely wearing the favorite of the goods out here. I think on the other side,
11:23 it can bounce back to the levels of 25 to 40, 25, 70 in the near term. From the short-term point of
11:28 view, technically, also, if you look at then it has reached quite an important support level.
11:33 I mean, Singapore Signals, the collection of their, the overall has taken a buy when we
11:39 plan structure, generally, of course, once you see a good lead, this is coming in. And
11:43 the moment they also hit the break, it's quite oversold. So, yeah, 25, 40, 25, 70 is a short-term
11:49 buy. It's not a 480 support or the stock price, you could say. So, the receiver is definitely
11:54 wearing the favorite of the goods out here. And TADA has also done that. This is one stock which
11:58 has been, I don't know, I would say, long and I guess, completely, look at the 3 to 4 months of
12:07 cycle, F&O cycle of TADA, it's very clear that the overall cycle has been quite on the long side.
12:13 And this time around, the stock is quite a good pick out for the cyclists. So, I think,
12:20 the trend out here will be continuing on the upside. The target out here will be 920,
12:26 and the stock price will be 875. And the near-term results will look quite promising.
12:31 And I think that FNG and BARR, it's looking positive at least from the October,
12:39 or since 1.2. And see, hybrid I think that will be quantitatively,
12:43 but it's going to be the preferred cycle. And as well, the money is going to flow at least in
12:50 October. All right. Well, there you have it. Positive on two consumer companies right now,
12:56 and looking at an uptrend too. And perhaps the more important takeaway from our conversation
13:01 from with Jay Thakkar is that he is more positive on the Nifty as compared to the Bank Nifty,
13:06 at least in the near term. Jay Thakkar, thank you so much for joining in and taking us through your
13:11 views on the markets. But with that, we'll be signing out for now. But don't go anywhere.
13:16 There's lots more lined up. So stay tuned to BQ Pride.
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